Israel and Iran on the Brink of War

[Social Media]

 

It is often feared that individual assassinations will spiral into wars, and the recent Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday morning, just hours after Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr was killed, looks as if it might start a new spiral on the road to outright war between Israel and Iran.

 

Shukr was said by Israel to have been behind the bombing of the children’s playground at Majdal Shams on July 27, an incident the Israelis believe was accidental. In retaliation, the Israelis targeted him in a Beirut suburb that is at the heart of Hezbollah leadership. When Haniyeh traveled to Tehran for the inauguration of the new Iranian president, the Israelis targeted him in one of the guesthouses of the presidential compound itself. It was a stunning demonstration of successful intelligence, precision assassination, and Israel’s audacity to kill him on an Iranian state occasion. This act emphasized Tehran’s failure to protect itself, showing Iranian leaders just how vulnerable they all are.

 

 

On Friday, Iran informed the United Nations that it expected an attack on Israel from its client Hezbollah and that the group would “not limit its response to military targets.”

 

In western capitals, it is judged that neither Jerusalem nor Tehran wants a full-on war. Iran, it is thought, will energize its other clients, including Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen, to fight in support of Hezbollah but will ultimately sacrifice any of them to avoid being on the wrong end of a direct war with Israel. Last time Israel assumed this, in its April attack on the Iranian consular building in Damascus, Tehran and its allies fired 350 missiles and drones back at Israel but inflicted little damage.

 

 

Hamas is not considered the main security problem for Israel, nor is Gaza, despite the misery of its two million people. The main threat, according to Israeli defense strategists, is Hezbollah in Lebanon and the way Tehran uses it to pursue its open-ended war against Israel. Some in Israel believe it is time to settle the conflict in Lebanon and force Iran to choose: either back off or take them on fully. This is not a universal view among Israel’s political elite or the public, but the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) have long entertained this scenario in their strategic planning, and many in the military feel that following the October 7 attacks, its time has arrived.

 

 

No military wants to fight a multi-front war, and the IDF is facing a semi-circle of adversaries challenging its air defenses from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen. Unrest on the West Bank is close to boiling point, and the Gaza war has been scaled back to an urban counter-insurgency in which the IDF relies mainly on bombing and brief ground incursions. And still, there is no realistic political plan for a Gazan future. But one of the few consistencies in recent IDF policy has been to draw down its ground forces in Gaza to make them available for action in the north.

 

 

If the Israeli government is prepared to open up a new fighting front in Lebanon, what might a 2024 Lebanon war involve? Certainly, it would not be much like the previous ones of 1978, 1982, or 2006, all of which gave the IDF pyrrhic victories that solved few of the country’s security problems. Hezbollah is not popular among the Lebanese, but it is immensely stronger than it was 20 years ago, following a generation of determined Iranian backing. The judgment that it has more than 150,000 rockets, compared with the 10,000 or so originally attributed to Hamas, is probably an underestimate. Including drones, mortars, and rocket artillery, Hezbollah could attack Israel with closer to half a million weapons.

 

There are networks of Hezbollah tunnels—more than Hamas ever built in Gaza—across southern Lebanon and along the Syrian border, with deep bunkers and firing points honeycombing the area south of the Litani river down to the border with northern Israel. In Gaza, Hamas fights as a terrorist force, but Hezbollah, with up to 50,000 trained fighters, is more than twice the size of Hamas and is trained to operate both as a regular and a guerrilla army.

 

Previous Israeli wars in Lebanon generally focused on clearing their enemies from the land up to the Litani river, creating a buffer zone which then had to be maintained. That would be a much tougher job this time around, though it could probably be achieved. But now Hezbollah also has, in effect, a cheap version of a nuclear deterrent in its multiple thousands of longer-range rockets, all targeted on northern Israel.

 

If it fired them all off in a few huge salvos, they would immediately overwhelm Israel’s air defenses and could devastate population centers and infrastructure across the north of the country, including Tel Aviv and Haifa. If the Israelis could not live with that risk, they would have to conduct a series of rapid offensives deep into Lebanon to overrun Hezbollah’s launching sites and rocket stocks, tunnel systems, and all.

 

If it could not achieve that, Israel might try a fierce and lightning air campaign to neutralize the rocket threat. But at the point where an air offensive was even half successful, Hezbollah would have a high incentive to fire off the other half of its “nuclear” arsenal. And if the IDF got bogged down in Lebanon’s mountainous territory, or found itself bombing targets further north with little strategic effect, or fighting hard inside the Syrian border as Hezbollah made use of the safe haven, it would be a draining operation, constantly threatening northern Israel while renewed attacks from Hamas in Gaza and on the West Bank, and from the Houthis in Yemen would be a near certainty.

 

The IDF’s prospects are poor in all these scenarios. And they would have to swing into action before mid to late October when the weather turns in the Lebanese mountains. Nevertheless, the IDF has been withdrawing units from Gaza and re-equipping them, rebuilding weapon stocks, extending reservist call-up notices, and preparing the 60,000 Israeli residents who have been moved out of the area for an extended period of evacuation. The IDF shows every intention of switching its center of operations from Gaza to Lebanon. It might all be a bluff to frighten Hezbollah into pulling back and desisting from its daily attacks. That’s deterrence.

 

Israeli policy has always been based on such principles; a deterrent in its nuclear force, right down to deterrence in the way its security services assassinate anyone they deem a mortal enemy. This week many in the IDF feel they are “re-establishing” their traditional deterrence after the blow it took in the October 7 attack. Netanyahu has said that every Hamas leader is a “dead man walking” and Israel loses no opportunity to prove it, even in the heart of Tehran. This is dangerous stuff and it will ultimately turn on whether Jerusalem is right to assume that Tehran will always blink first.

 

Credit: The Times  2024-08-05

 

 

Get our Daily Newsletter - Click HERE to subscribe

 

Cigna offers a variety of health insurance plans designed to meet the minimum requirement for medical treatment coverage, with benefits reaching up to THB 3 million. These plans are tailored to provide comprehensive healthcare solutions for expatriates, ensuring peace of mind and access to quality medical services. To explore the full range of Cigna's expat health insurance options and find a plan that suits your needs, click here for more information.

[Tug]

Quell surprise don’t think they will though not ready yet and they know the response would be overwhelming 

[thaipo7]

18 minutes ago, Tug said:

Quell surprise don’t think they will though not ready yet and they know the response would be overwhelming 

Tug, I thought Biden was MUCH better than Trump at keeping the world at peace.  I see him a an arsonist setting the fires. He gave how many $billions to Iran? Sure hope Israel has kept their best weapons for Iran.  What is Biden/Harris going to do?  They need the River to the Sea vote even though Harris has the Democrat Party "SO EXCITED" according to Tug.

[stoner]

our species sucks.

[AhFarangJa]

Religion, bringing wars to the masses for the last 2,000 years. I do appreciate the Israel / Arab divide is a lot more complicated than merely religious ideals, but it is likely the biggest contributory factor. 

[stoner]

4 minutes ago, AhFarangJa said:

Religion, bringing wars to the masses for the last 2,000 years. I do appreciate the Israel / Arab divide is a lot more complicated than merely religious ideals, but it is likely the biggest contributory factor. 

 

amen. 

[tandor]

I would like to order two Loras, four Popeyes and one family-sized Jericho3 please..address to be advised.

Edited August 5 by tandor

[koolkarl]

Iran deserves to be silenced once and for all.

[Purdey]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

the IDF is facing a semi-circle of adversaries challenging its air defenses from Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.

The fact Iraq is mentioned is interesting as Iraq was not an ally of Iran before the Gulf War.

[nobodysfriend]

Iran is hesitant for a full scale war .

They are busy to finish the full scale enrichment of uranium that they need for the islamic nuclear bomb .

Once the have that bomb , they might be crazy enough to use it ...

If they do not use it , it will strengthen their position for negotiating .

 

Too many crazies already in this world that like to play around with nukes .

[thesetat2013]

3 hours ago, thaipo7 said:

Tug, I thought Biden was MUCH better than Trump at keeping the world at peace.  I see him a an arsonist setting the fires. He gave how many $billions to Iran? Sure hope Israel has kept their best weapons for Iran.  What is Biden/Harris going to do?  They need the River to the Sea vote even though Harris has the Democrat Party "SO EXCITED" according to Tug.

Haha guess you thought wrong. Biden is a warmonger. There is a lot of profit in getting wars started in the world and keeping them going. Biden has never done anything except help escalate conflicts in the world. Am sure harris will follow in bidens footsteps in this regard. As for Trump. I do not recall any wars starting when he was in office nor his giving weapons to help a country. I seem to recall his attempts to withdraw forces the previous President left in foreign nations. I could be wrong but it appears Biden and Harris both were not very good at their jobs when in this respect. It does not mean Trump did/will do better in this regard. but his past performance for this is better than Bidens for sure.  

[wombat]

any chance this whole thing was engineered to take out the nuclear reactor in Iran that is producing the bang powder that gives them nuclear weapons?

[wombat]

3 hours ago, AhFarangJa said:

Religion, bringing wars to the masses for the last 2,000 years. I do appreciate the Israel / Arab divide is a lot more complicated than merely religious ideals, but it is likely the biggest contributory factor. 

and we wonder why no one says hullo

[WDSmart]

As long as Israel continues to try to occupy all the land they believe is theirs, given to them by their god, there will be strife between Jews and Muslims. Neither is right, IMO, and I wish they could just learn to live together and share the land, but I'm certain that is just going to happen. War is inevitable and, unfortunately, probably will be everlasting also.

[proton]

17 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

As long as Israel continues to try to occupy all the land they believe is theirs, given to them by their god, there will be strife between Jews and Muslims. Neither is right, IMO, and I wish they could just learn to live together and share the land, but I'm certain that is just going to happen. War is inevitable and, unfortunately, probably will be everlasting also.

 

It is their land, even the Quran says Allah gave them their land and they have been there over 3k years. It's the muslims who are the newcomers who own about 98% of the land in the middle east, but their hatred of Jews, started by their fake prophet prevents them from accepting Israel. The Quran never even mentions Palestine but does the children of Israel 43 times

[WDSmart]

3 minutes ago, proton said:

 

It is their land, even the Quran says Allah gave them their land and they have been there over 3k years. It's the muslims who are the newcomers who own about 98% of the land in the middle east, but their hatred of Jews, started by their fake prophet prevents them from accepting Israel. The Quran never even mentions Palestine but does the children of Israel 43 times

Who cares what the Quran or Torah says? They're both just fantasies. The UN gave Israel part of the land then called "Palestine," in 1948. But it was to be divided up with the Palestinians. That's the law that should apply now. Partition of Palestine | 1948 | Britannica

[CashMoon]

If anyone really believes that Iran and Israel are enemies, I put the Eiffel Tower up for sale. You can DM me for a bargain.  

[proton]

6 minutes ago, WDSmart said:

Who cares what the Quran or Torah says? They're both just fantasies. The UN gave Israel part of the land then called "Palestine," in 1948. But it was to be divided up with the Palestinians. That's the law that should apply now. Partition of Palestine | 1948 | Britannica

 

Muslims live by the Quran as the direct word of Allah and act on it accordingly, you must have missed it.

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, proton said:

 

It is their land, even the Quran says Allah gave them their land and they have been there over 3k years. It's the muslims who are the newcomers who own about 98% of the land in the middle east, but their hatred of Jews, started by their fake prophet prevents them from accepting Israel. The Quran never even mentions Palestine but does the children of Israel 43 times

More ahistorical nonsense. For most of their history in the mideast and spain, jewish communities survived and even thrived in the mideast. As one example, it was Muslim Turkey that took in 300,000 jews who were expelled from Spain during the Christian reconquest. (Another 350,000 were estimated to have been killed by Christians) 

Anyone with a smidgeon of knowledge about Israel's conduct in Gaza before Israel withdrew, and its current conduct in the West Bank, doesn't need to invoke anti-semitism to explain why Palestians hate Israel "This is not to deny demonizeing anti-semitism exists in the mideast, but that's a phenomenon that began in the late 19th century from Europe, particularly France, and gained steam as the Zionist movement grew in what was then Palestine.

[WDSmart]

Just now, proton said:

 

Muslims live by the Quran as the direct word of Allah and act on it accordingly, you must have missed it.

No, I didn't miss that. Nor did I miss that Jews live by the Torah as the direct word of Yahweh and act on it accordingly.

I suggest that both discard those fanciful delusions and live by the direct word of the UN. 

[Celsius]

it doesn't affect me

[Eric Loh]

2 hours ago, nobodysfriend said:

Iran is hesitant for a full scale war .

They are busy to finish the full scale enrichment of uranium that they need for the islamic nuclear bomb .

Once the have that bomb , they might be crazy enough to use it ...

If they do not use it , it will strengthen their position for negotiating .

 

Too many crazies already in this world that like to play around with nukes .

Trump's hands will be all over this nuclear escalation with his withdrawal from the JCPOA and the assassination of  Gen Qassem Saleimani. Trump's no war is a myth. Trump poured fuel on the endless wars and kicked diplomacy to the curb. He caused Nato fracture and enourage Russian aggression

 

s

[Hawaiian]

5 hours ago, wombat said:

any chance this whole thing was engineered to take out the nuclear reactor in Iran that is producing the bang powder that gives them nuclear weapons?

I thought the same thing.  Quite sure the Israelis know it is now or never.

[Cryingdick]

Fear not. Joe woke up earlier than 10 am and hauled his teleprompter to the situation room. Behind the scenes he is as sharp as a tack. We also have Kamala on the job. She is a true secret weapon. Team America is in great shape and a well oiled machine.