why not war in Burma?

[zzzzz]

You have war in Ukraine &  Israel
the war in Burma has been going on nearly 30 months

and affects many more people in Thailand than the other 2 

just asking 

[FritsSikkink]

What do you want to do?

[orang37]

The conflict in Burma is in fact large and there are ways in which it has affected other countries in the region; such as Thailand. The reason as to why it might not receive as much international attention could be because of the type of media it gets, interests of the geopolitical aspect, or serious lack of coverage from powerful news giants.

[herfiehandbag]

I suspect the lack of interest is because however it ends, it will leave the situation regionally effectively unchanged. 

 

Either a vicious dictatorship squatting amongst the debris of a ruined country, or a victorious but highly fragmented rebel movement grappling with rebuilding from the debris of a ruined country.

[spidermike007]

The unelected Burmese Army is getting their butt's kicked, and is doing everything in their power to keep the world from finding out how bad things are for them. Hopefully, they will soon lose their grip on power. The Thailand leadership does not seem to care much about the people of Burma. They lend their army support, if it is convenient. 

[Srikcir]

Nestled against communist China, communist Laos and comrade Thailand, it would be politically and diplomatically upsetting to focus on a democratic revolution in Mynamar. Not to mention the economic benefits of trafficking low paid Mynamar workers into those neighboring countries.

 

A better question is why democratic India (the largest democracy in the world) that occupies almost all of Mynamar's western border seems to have no interest in seeing the democratic revolution succeed in Mynamar.

• 'Ethnic insurgents in western Myanmar say they have captured an important town on one of the main routes to India from military forces.' A little support India?
• India's response thus far: 'issued a statement in December 2023 appealing to the junta to initiate dialogue with the rebel groups and with the national unity government.' Kind of like Thailand's "can't we all just get along."

[thaibeachlovers]

You think India under Modi is still Democratic?

Hmmmmmmm.

 

He seems to like nasty governments eg Putin.

[thaibeachlovers]

36 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The unelected Burmese Army is getting their butt's kicked, and is doing everything in their power to keep the world from finding out how bad things are for them. Hopefully, they will soon lose their grip on power. The Thailand leadership does not seem to care much about the people of Burma. They lend their army support, if it is convenient. 

I'm sure you know who is a big influence in Thailand. Same as in Burma.

[JRG23]

There is a war in Burma. Civil war.

[animalmagic]

9 hours ago, herfiehandbag said:

I suspect the lack of interest is because however it ends, it will leave the situation regionally effectively unchanged. 

 

Either a vicious dictatorship squatting amongst the debris of a ruined country, or a victorious but highly fragmented rebel movement grappling with rebuilding from the debris of a ruined country.

I fear a victory by a highly fragmented rebel movement would probably lead to a highly fragmented country and continued fighting.

[Iron Tongue]

18 hours ago, zzzzz said:

You have war in Ukraine &  Israel
the war in Burma has been going on nearly 30 months

and affects many more people in Thailand than the other 2 

just asking 

Burma is on fire.

The Junta is in trouble and hunkered-down in their cities while all manner of ethnic minorities AND Burmese people have taken-up arms.  They have lost control of the countryside and waterways.

Over a very short time, the various rebellious groups have organized, trained, and rearmed themselves with captured weapons and from money funneled to their causes.  The rebels started with old shotguns and 3D printed guns but now have modern weapons AND drones used in the same manner as by Ukraine.

There is just no real world-wide interest because people just don't understand anything about Burma, it's past, and current politics.  Burma is just some far-away land, just like the wars in Africa.

Until there is a threat of spillover that would harm Western countries like Ukraine and Israel, most people just don't care.

[Wrwest]

3 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

The unelected Burmese Army is getting their butt's kicked, and is doing everything in their power to keep the world from finding out how bad things are for them. Hopefully, they will soon lose their grip on power. The Thailand leadership does not seem to care much about the people of Burma. They lend their army support, if it is convenient. 

I am thinking, Thailand being very mindful of the Chinese interests in Myanmar ...

[john donson]

they have great exports to thailand, meth, human and sex slaves, ...

[Kerryd]

Burma is a puppet of China so the "West" has to steer clear.

Recall the weak justification the UN/NATO used to bomb Gadafi into non-existence - because oil companies in France and Italy had funded an "Arab Spring uprising" - led by Gadafi's former #2 man.

It is against the UN's own rules to instigate a "regime change" in any country so NATO was used under the pretext of "protecting civilians". And France was the leading voice calling for NATO to intervene.
And Gadafi met the same fate as Hussein.
And after Gadafi met his fate what was the first major news to come out of Libya ? That the two main gas companies (from France and Italy) had gotten the refineries and pumping stations running again.
Because that was what it was really about.

(Note that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other "Sunni" countries also brutally quashed the "Arab Spring" uprisings in their countries with NO condemnation from anyone.)

Same in Syria. A fundamentalist "Arab Spring" uprising started with a small group of hard-core, old school, fundamentalists hoping to overthrow Assad and establish a new "Caliphate".
The "West" jumped right in and started supplying those poor, outnumbered and outgunned "rebels" with weapons and ammo and warning Assad of severe "consequences" if he crossed any "lines in the sand".

But then the "West" found out that not only were those rebels Iranian/Afghan-type fundies, most of their fighters actually belonged to a half dozen recognized terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and Al-Nusrah among others.

And ! They quickly discovered that a lot of the arms, ammuntion and other materials sent to the "rebels" was showing up on the black markets in the region within weeks.

But they couldn't go in and bomb Assad into history like they'd done to Gadafi - because Russia had Assad's back.
And ! The rebels turned out to be worse than Assad ! 
They actually staged a number of "chemical weapons" attacks - in areas they controlled - in an attempt to drag America into the fight (after Obama had made his "line in the sand" statement that if Assad used chemical weapons against the rebels, that would be "crossing" that line and draw the US into the fight).

However, the West wasn't fooled. Especially as Assad had already (under UN supervision and assistance) disposed of any chemical weapons they had and the UN had inspected all the chemical plants under Assad's control.

But oddly enough - they NEVER inspected the FOUR chemical plants that were in "rebel held" territory !

Also consider Rwanda. Mugabe was just as bad as Hussein, Assad or Gadafi - yet the world just looked the other way and pretended they couldn't see or hear anything.

When I was in Afghanistan we had a guy from Rwanda working in our Finance section.

One day, not long after the war in Syria kicked off, we were talking about it at lunch. We pondered the real reasons for the conflict and why the same countries (US/European mainly) weren't doing anything about Mugabe.

The Rwandan guy shook his head and said "What do we export ? Potatoes. Not oil. No one cares what happens to us."

And that was hitting the nail on the head. Hussein ? Iraqi oil. Gadafi ? Libyan oil. Assad ? Syrian oil.

Mugabe ? Rwandan potatoes. No interest to the "West" so no intervention.

Hlaing (Myanmar) ? Oil and Natural gas - but under China's umbrella. Most of Myanmar's exported commodities go to China (no surprise), India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Germany. Most of Myanmar's imports come from China (no surprise), Thailand and other countries in the region.

Zero chance the UN or the "West" will do anything about what is happening in Myanmar other than maybe some weak sanctions (if China agrees) or travel restrictions on the senior leadership.

And as long as Thailand keeps dancing to China's tune, there's zero chance they'll do anything either.

And even if something "major" happened that required a response from Thailand, what are they going to do ? Go to war with a country that is heavily backed - and supplied - by China ? To whom Thailand is already heavily in debt to.
They could go to the ineffectual, corrupt UN about it - and get a tepid response and maybe, if they are lucky, a weak, unenforceable "resolution" condeming (whatever happened) but recommending "discussions" and "negotiations" because they already know China will veto any military response.

And let us not forget, Thailand is but a "coup" away from becoming exactly like Cambodia and Myanmar.

And if China has it's hooks in deep enough, the "West" will be forced to sit back and mouth meaningless statements about "restoring order and democracy" and then go back to watching whatever sports match is on the tele.

Because there's pretty much zero chance anyone will intervene to "save" Thailand even if they go "full Junta" and start mowing people down in the streets.

In fact, all that would do would be to play right into China's hands by giving them the justification to invade to "protect the innocent civilians".

And the UN and the West will make grand statements about respecting Thailand's independence and the rights of the people - and then ignore it as they know they are pretty much powerless to do anything about it anyways.

(I suspect we have less than 20 years before conjecture becomes reality.)
Unless "something" happens somewhere else in the world sooner. Like if the Middle East were to escalate into a full-fledged regional conflict, and the war in Ukraine escalated, and maybe even India and Pakistan started poking each other with more than sticks and stones. China could make moves on Taiwan and in the South China sea as well as Thailand (and maybe Myanmar and Laos) and the "West" would be screwed.

They'd be flipping coins to see which conflict to respond to and which to basically ignore and hope for the best. But they'd never come to an agreement about which should have a priority over the others and if they did, it would be Europe first, Middle East second, India/Pakistan third (because of the danger of it escalating into a nuclear conflict) and SE Asia would be a distant 4th.

I'd say - start planning now - but I'm a realist, not a fortune teller. And the reality is, we're probably screwed no matter what. 
Unless you move to a remote village in the middle of the Andes mountains. 

[ignore it]

Well, 

 

 

Technically speaking its in Myanmar.

[paul1804]

Russia, China, Iran, India & Thailand in various ways support the illegally instated Burmese Junta for their own financial gains. The Junta are committing atrocities against the people daily, destroying infrastructure, bridges, schools, hospitals, places of worship and thousands of peoples homes, this is a known fact yet these neighbouring countries & others continue supporting this genocide of the Burmese people.  The so called army are currently getting their arses kicked by the rebel armies who are fighting for their lives & some sort of self rule based on a democracy. To add to this the generals and their cronies are stealing the wealth of Burma from the state & the people whether it be properties, business's or recourses and destroying the peoples ability to make a living. Inflation is out of control, the rule of law is whatever suits the Junta on the day and yet the likes of China & Russia being the 2 biggest supporters continue to prop up this atrocity purely for their own means. What has the world come to, why do these leaders have no shame, no ethics or morals?

[zzzzz]

21 hours ago, FritsSikkink said:

What do you want to do?

Have a subsection here
I'd participate more than on the war in Ukraine

I made multiple trips to Burma ( yes we can all it Burma, NOT Myanmar) between 2014 and 2019 ( 1st trip was in 1987) and would love to return but want go as the places ki wish to go to or back to are not allowed as a farang

Its a war that is all but ignored by the international media cause for most it does not affect them>  


FYI: China is not just sup[porting the junta but many of the armed militants as well
got to make sure that no matter who wins< thye will have their hands in the pie

The junta is losing ground all over the country now,  advancing on Mandalay as we write 

[Donga]

2 hours ago, Kerryd said:

Burma is a puppet of China so the "West" has to steer clear.

Recall the weak justification the UN/NATO used to bomb Gadafi into non-existence - because oil companies in France and Italy had funded an "Arab Spring uprising" - led by Gadafi's former #2 man.

It is against the UN's own rules to instigate a "regime change" in any country so NATO was used under the pretext of "protecting civilians". And France was the leading voice calling for NATO to intervene.
And Gadafi met the same fate as Hussein.
And after Gadafi met his fate what was the first major news to come out of Libya ? That the two main gas companies (from France and Italy) had gotten the refineries and pumping stations running again.
Because that was what it was really about.

(Note that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and other "Sunni" countries also brutally quashed the "Arab Spring" uprisings in their countries with NO condemnation from anyone.)

Same in Syria. A fundamentalist "Arab Spring" uprising started with a small group of hard-core, old school, fundamentalists hoping to overthrow Assad and establish a new "Caliphate".
The "West" jumped right in and started supplying those poor, outnumbered and outgunned "rebels" with weapons and ammo and warning Assad of severe "consequences" if he crossed any "lines in the sand".

But then the "West" found out that not only were those rebels Iranian/Afghan-type fundies, most of their fighters actually belonged to a half dozen recognized terrorist organizations like Al Qaeda and Al-Nusrah among others.

And ! They quickly discovered that a lot of the arms, ammuntion and other materials sent to the "rebels" was showing up on the black markets in the region within weeks.

But they couldn't go in and bomb Assad into history like they'd done to Gadafi - because Russia had Assad's back.
And ! The rebels turned out to be worse than Assad ! 
They actually staged a number of "chemical weapons" attacks - in areas they controlled - in an attempt to drag America into the fight (after Obama had made his "line in the sand" statement that if Assad used chemical weapons against the rebels, that would be "crossing" that line and draw the US into the fight).

However, the West wasn't fooled. Especially as Assad had already (under UN supervision and assistance) disposed of any chemical weapons they had and the UN had inspected all the chemical plants under Assad's control.

But oddly enough - they NEVER inspected the FOUR chemical plants that were in "rebel held" territory !

Also consider Rwanda. Mugabe was just as bad as Hussein, Assad or Gadafi - yet the world just looked the other way and pretended they couldn't see or hear anything.

When I was in Afghanistan we had a guy from Rwanda working in our Finance section.

One day, not long after the war in Syria kicked off, we were talking about it at lunch. We pondered the real reasons for the conflict and why the same countries (US/European mainly) weren't doing anything about Mugabe.

The Rwandan guy shook his head and said "What do we export ? Potatoes. Not oil. No one cares what happens to us."

And that was hitting the nail on the head. Hussein ? Iraqi oil. Gadafi ? Libyan oil. Assad ? Syrian oil.

Mugabe ? Rwandan potatoes. No interest to the "West" so no intervention.

Hlaing (Myanmar) ? Oil and Natural gas - but under China's umbrella. Most of Myanmar's exported commodities go to China (no surprise), India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and Germany. Most of Myanmar's imports come from China (no surprise), Thailand and other countries in the region.

Zero chance the UN or the "West" will do anything about what is happening in Myanmar other than maybe some weak sanctions (if China agrees) or travel restrictions on the senior leadership.

And as long as Thailand keeps dancing to China's tune, there's zero chance they'll do anything either.

And even if something "major" happened that required a response from Thailand, what are they going to do ? Go to war with a country that is heavily backed - and supplied - by China ? To whom Thailand is already heavily in debt to.
They could go to the ineffectual, corrupt UN about it - and get a tepid response and maybe, if they are lucky, a weak, unenforceable "resolution" condeming (whatever happened) but recommending "discussions" and "negotiations" because they already know China will veto any military response.

And let us not forget, Thailand is but a "coup" away from becoming exactly like Cambodia and Myanmar.

And if China has it's hooks in deep enough, the "West" will be forced to sit back and mouth meaningless statements about "restoring order and democracy" and then go back to watching whatever sports match is on the tele.

Because there's pretty much zero chance anyone will intervene to "save" Thailand even if they go "full Junta" and start mowing people down in the streets.

In fact, all that would do would be to play right into China's hands by giving them the justification to invade to "protect the innocent civilians".

And the UN and the West will make grand statements about respecting Thailand's independence and the rights of the people - and then ignore it as they know they are pretty much powerless to do anything about it anyways.

(I suspect we have less than 20 years before conjecture becomes reality.)
Unless "something" happens somewhere else in the world sooner. Like if the Middle East were to escalate into a full-fledged regional conflict, and the war in Ukraine escalated, and maybe even India and Pakistan started poking each other with more than sticks and stones. China could make moves on Taiwan and in the South China sea as well as Thailand (and maybe Myanmar and Laos) and the "West" would be screwed.

They'd be flipping coins to see which conflict to respond to and which to basically ignore and hope for the best. But they'd never come to an agreement about which should have a priority over the others and if they did, it would be Europe first, Middle East second, India/Pakistan third (because of the danger of it escalating into a nuclear conflict) and SE Asia would be a distant 4th.

I'd say - start planning now - but I'm a realist, not a fortune teller. And the reality is, we're probably screwed no matter what. 
Unless you move to a remote village in the middle of the Andes mountains. 

Agree with much of your analysis, however believe you're being a tad harsh in some areas, e.g. "And let us not forget, Thailand is but a "coup" away from becoming exactly like Cambodia and Myanmar." Thailand has had military coups but not conducted themselves in the same way as Cambodia or Myanmar, and now less likely to go down that road again in my view. Thailand is quite different compared to its neighbours.

I suspect you overestimate the power of Russia, China, Iran & North Korea (I don't see Pakistan going to war with India) vs US, Europe, Japan, India, South Korea, Taiwan, even Australia who would have a role to play depending on the theatres of conflict. The economies of the evil lot are also in disarray, compared to US, Europe and Asian democracies.

Frustrating that UN is so powerless where it is required, while posturing as ethical carers in Gaza.

While things can look harrowing, I'm not as worried as to consider contingency plans. Thailand and Australia work for me and just hope we're in the right place if the tensions blow up in Asia Pacific.
 

[Sydebolle]

No EU and Von der Leyen, no NATO, no American interest and no Zelenzky nor Netanyahu - simple as that! 

[Burma Bill]

7 hours ago, JRG23 said:

There is a war in Burma. Civil war.

 

Very much so.

 

An alliance of freedom fighter armies wanting democracy to be restored VERSUS the genocidal Junta dictatorship with its terrorist military organisation the Tatmadaw.  The Junta has now lost control of Rakhine State in the west.

 

YANGON - Myanmar’s junta is on the verge of being expelled from a westernmost state bordering Bangladesh, according to a new report, marking the one of the biggest military losses since a 2021 coup led to renewed civilian conflict across the country. 

The Arakan Army has made rapid advances across Rakhine state since November 2023 and is set to create the single largest area controlled by an ethnic armed group since the coup, the International Crisis Group said in a report on Aug 27.  

Formed in the borderlands of China, the armed group is responsible for some of the military junta’s most decisive battleground losses over the past year. The victories are rallying other ethnic armed groups and pro-democracy fighters to dislodge the military regime led by coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing. 

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/myanmar-junta-set-to-lose-restive-state-to-ethnic-armed-group

[ericbj]

On 8/30/2024 at 5:40 AM, spidermike007 said:

The unelected Burmese Army is getting their butt's kicked, and is doing everything in their power to keep the world from finding out how bad things are for them. Hopefully, they will soon lose their grip on power. The Thailand leadership does not seem to care much about the people of Burma. They lend their army support, if it is convenient. 

Agreed !

A Burma ruled by a militaristic dictatorship, which believes implicitly in the use of deceit and force to gain its nefarious ends, will always represent a far greater threat to the security of Thailand than a federal democratic nation which must reconcile a variety of sometimes conflicting interests and opinions.

 

A dictatorship can, on a whim, switch from one foreign policy to an opposite one.  Thus Gen.Min Aung Hlaing can, either sincerely or flatteringly, refer to Gen.Prayut as 'father'.

 

But in 2001 the Thai-hating C-in-C of Burma Army, Gen.Maung Aye, addressing a select group of officers, said "We shall take Bangkok in ten days.  But first me must have either nuclear weapons or overwhelming superiority in conventional weapons."  [source: a former officer I interviewed many years ago, who was present at the meeting]

 

Clearly, with Burma Army having been so successfully attritted by the resistance, there is no chance of any serious attack upon Thailand in the foreseeable future.

 

It should be noted that none of the diverse ethnic groups fighting the regime are now calling for independence from Burma, and are even suppressing any such talk.

 

For those that may wish to follow the evolution of the struggle in Burma, this should prove a useful link: https://www.facebook.com/sawhteecher

 

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/30/2024 at 2:18 PM, Iron Tongue said:

most people just don't care.

Relevant words. Without social media to guide them in "right thinking" the sheeple don't care.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 8/30/2024 at 7:19 PM, Burma Bill said:

coup leader-turned-president Min Aung Hlaing. 

I hope they catch him before he escapes to a life of luxury in exile. Death would be too kind, so a small cage in a zoo would be a fitting home for him.

 

It'll be interesting what they decide to do with the military. I suspect some death marches may occur.

 

[simple1]

On 8/30/2024 at 9:05 AM, Srikcir said:

Nestled against communist China, communist Laos and comrade Thailand, it would be politically and diplomatically upsetting to focus on a democratic revolution in Mynamar. Not to mention the economic benefits of trafficking low paid Mynamar workers into those neighboring countries.

 

A better question is why democratic India (the largest democracy in the world) that occupies almost all of Mynamar's western border seems to have no interest in seeing the democratic revolution succeed in Mynamar.

• 'Ethnic insurgents in western Myanmar say they have captured an important town on one of the main routes to India from military forces.' A little support India?
• India's response thus far: 'issued a statement in December 2023 appealing to the junta to initiate dialogue with the rebel groups and with the national unity government.' Kind of like Thailand's "can't we all just get along."

 

India is run by a Hindu nationalist government; they would have zero concern for Muslim suffering in Myanmar. It's interesting some of the armed opposition are Burmese Christians who have had some success, you would think the Western media would be more interested in covering the conflict.

[zzzzz]

There over 800,000 Rohingyas in Cox Bazar Bangladesh, but there not there because of the current problems, they are there cause Aung San wouldn't say or do anything    😞

Lets see how this plays out IF the junta cant defend Mandalay and it falls>

as far as the world goes,  nobody cares about brown people in SE Asia  anymore
China is backing both sides and making tons of $$$ supplying arms

[thaibeachlovers]

 

15 hours ago, simple1 said:

you would think the Western media would be more interested in covering the conflict.

Western media is only interested in click bait IMO. Not enough interest to make it pay. Al Jazeera have had some documentaries about it, but they are not run by greedy owners.

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, zzzzz said:

There over 800,000 Rohingyas in Cox Bazar Bangladesh, but there not there because of the current problems, they are there cause Aung San wouldn't say or do anything    😞

Lets see how this plays out IF the junta cant defend Mandalay and it falls>

as far as the world goes,  nobody cares about brown people in SE Asia  anymore
China is backing both sides and making tons of $$$ supplying arms

So it's all her fault?

How much power did she have, in reality?

I can't say what I'd like to on here in response to that.

[zzzzz]

of course its Not ALL her fault, like any Politician, she knows which side her bread is buttered on
but did piss off LOTS of western officials, her not saying a word when it was going down

[Patong2021]

On 8/30/2024 at 3:07 AM, Sydebolle said:

No EU and Von der Leyen, no NATO, no American interest and no Zelenzky nor Netanyahu - simple as that! 

 

No. The difference is that Myanmar's violence is  inside the country and is between warring factions, neither of whom is particularly nice or will win humanitarian of the year.

Ukraine is at war with Russia  because Russia invaded and has been threatening other countries in the region. Russia has been sending nuclear armed bombers and warships into the airspace and waters of Norway, Sweden and Canada. It regularly threatens the Baltic states, and Poland. This is why the EU has responded a Russia is threatening the EU.  The US would be delighted if Russia stopped the war.

 

Hamas attacked Israel from Gaza on October 7, murdering 1200 people and taking 251 hostages, most of whom were non combatants. Hamas has been firing missiles and rockets from Gaza  ever since. Israel has responded,  Iran is implicated  with its support, and financing. Iran  is a threat to the Gulf oil producers and is a major sponsor of international terrorism and has actively supported the Taliban and militias in Iraq.  Iran propped up the  despot of Syria, Asssad and has a hand in  the creation of 14 million refugees and 500,000 Syrian war deaths. Iran has funded the Houthi campaign of war in Yemen that has resulted 4.5 million refugees, a near famine and  250,000+ war casualties .  The Gaza war  was encouraged by Iran to block the long awaited normalization of relations between  the KSA and Israel, which would have resulted in regional stability.

 

Myanmar's war is self contained. The Indians and Chinese funding of factions is intended to gain control of  the country's raw materials, particularly oil & gas, timber and minerals.

[Patong2021]

57 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

Western media is only interested in click bait IMO. Not enough interest to make it pay. Al Jazeera have had some documentaries about it, but they are not run by greedy owners.

Al Jazeera is  financed by the government of Qatar and is a political outlet for Qatari political actions and views. After  greater involvement by the Qatari  government in 2018, the company developed a reputation for bias.