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Posted
47 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Difficult to know, exactly, how China's economy is at any one point in time, because they fudge the books. 

Just like everyone else  ... 

 

... unless some people are dump enough to believe there was no inflation in the USA a few years since 2000.

 

-0- inflation = 0 COLA adjustment on USA Social Security (retirement payments), for 2009, 2010 & 2015  :cheesy:

Posted
On 12/22/2024 at 2:08 PM, jas007 said:

Just a guess, but if China is slowing down, doesn't that affect the Australian mining industry?  Less demand for Australian dollars, perhaps? 

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/iron-ores-2025-crash-could-rip-tens-of-billions-out-of-aussie-economy-disastrous-190022231.html

 

No positives in the near future. xe.com shows me 21.26 to thb. I guess it may go to the 2020 levels around 20 to thb.

Posted
On 12/22/2024 at 1:27 AM, KhunHeineken said:

Yet, Australia is looking at the very real possibility of having to import gas, despite having huge gas resources, and being a major exporter of gas.

 

What a disgrace. 

You are right beer man.With the exeption of the Western Australian Government who quarantines a quota of gas for local supply only and not for export all the other states export of every last kiloljoule of gas for the royalties.New South Wales and Victoria has even banned gas exploration so suddeny they have realised that they are running short and although they have shatloads in the ground are starting to panic.That is stupidity and greed .

Posted

There are many currencies that suffers these days. Among them my NOK! I guess the dollar is to blame. It is just to strong! I am hoping for a sudden demise of that currency as soon as Trump start crashing the US economy!! 

Posted
On 12/22/2024 at 1:41 PM, Pattaya57 said:

I'm guessing those threads are in the 'Political soapbox' which is not an American forum, however you have come into an Australian forum in a thread about Aus$ to complain about Australians talking politics in that neutral forum? Are you happy you derailed an Aussie thread with off topic political rubbish?

 

This is a good example of why I'm starting to really hate Americans since I retired. In Pattaya you can't go to any bar without at least one American trying to be the loudest person in the bar with their brainwashed "everyone look at me, I'm American from the greatest country in the World" bullcrap

If I were you I'd spend a lot less of my retirement in bars in Pattaya trying to find loud Americans. 

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Posted
On 12/25/2024 at 6:43 PM, gearbox said:

No positives in the near future.

Analysts' Forecasts:

 

Commonwealth Bank forecasts the AUD/USD to fall to 0.62 by mid-2025 and to 0.61 by September.
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/aud/21192-australian-dollar-to-fall-materially-further-in-2025

 

Westpac predicts the AUD will be worth 0.69 USD by December 2024, rising to 0.70 USD in Q1 2025.
https://arielle.com.au/australian-dollar-forecast/

 

NAB anticipates the AUD to climb to 0.72 USD by mid-2025.
https://stocksdownunder.com/article/aud-usd-forecasts/

Posted

If in TH, or planning visiting, retiring in TH, then the uncommon common sense would be, to plan you finance around the negative, worst exchange rate.   Enjoy the highs, but don't expect them to last.

 

Know the lowest, base finances on that, and you never be surprised or disappointed.  Look long term, past rates, not this week, month, 6 months

 

YTD ... lost shy of 8%

image.png.50601d9c11bda1226a48e5376cecd284.png

 

5 years (pre covid) ... actually up a bit, even though a very short lived 18.79, and almost exactly where it is today.

image.png.b99ea0eba52304c253357695d18d7130.pngimage.png.62291fb5bdd466021d3116b046e32b72.png

image.png.17950cefa58573ee3d04ba45abc369ee.png

 

Another low, Oct 2008

image.png.0955c319774f0123fd0fc2c10662ddba.png

 

Seems the average low of AUD, during the  past 5-10-15+ year span is 21+/-, So plan your budget on that, not the highs of 27-28-29.  You'll have less disappointments & stress.

 

As a Yank, the past 15 years, it's been 30-35/$1, so my brain thinks 33+/-.   Rarely dips below 30, or about 35.  As long as it stays 30+, no worries, as I still make the 65k a month for retirement visa.  

 

When more that the average high, it's all smiles, but no stress when knocking on 30, knowing it rarely dips below, and always short lived, when it does.

 

Posted
On 9/17/2024 at 7:42 AM, steven100 said:

because the AUD is now 67.45 cents to the USD .... hence the reason for the drop to the Baht. 

 

but it may start to recover some after tomorrow when the US cut .25 basis points off the interest rate. 

 

 

Now 21.78  to the THB ......    very bad price.   

 

 

 

 

I think only wishing /Hoping that that will happen.

Today 21.6.    At investing.com   Start Getting sad for us Aussies

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Posted
On 12/27/2024 at 11:16 PM, wavodavo said:

You are right beer man.With the exeption of the Western Australian Government who quarantines a quota of gas for local supply only and not for export all the other states export of every last kiloljoule of gas for the royalties.New South Wales and Victoria has even banned gas exploration so suddeny they have realised that they are running short and although they have shatloads in the ground are starting to panic.That is stupidity and greed .

We will soon be buying back our own gas from the countries we have exported it to, but at a higher price. 

 

It would be funny, if it wasn't so serious for the Aussie consumer.

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Posted
45 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

Sad a country relies so much on China.  And, what else iron ore?

So true, but Australia also has another BIG problem.  The "hand up" has turned into a "hand out" over the years, with many now on welfare as a lifestyle choice. 

 

The welfare bill got bigger from today with more hand outs. 

 

https://www.9news.com.au/national/january-1-2025-changes-australia-centrelink-criminal-underpayment-passport-fees/8e58678a-4455-43c9-9ccc-6c2033d19d97

 

Problem is, the people on welfare get to vote, and now outnumber the workers, so it will just keep going in the same direction with Australia's welfare bill getting bigger and bigger.

 

Thus, you can expect the AUD to continue to have downward pressure. 

 

It's difficult for a country to increase productivity when their government gives people money to stay home and play the X-Box. 

Posted
1 hour ago, bkk6060 said:

Sad a country relies so much on China.  And, what else iron ore?

We don't rely on China, they just buy our stuff, but we can sell to anyone who pays. Unfortunately the so called "service" economies don't need iron ore or steel.

 

Australia is a quasi communist country, where the low class workers can get paid better than engineers or PhDs in molecular biology. The other countries where the proletariat ruled were the USSR and the former Eastern bloc, we all know how it ended. Welfare abound, you can get old age pension without working a single day.

 

The job of the governments is to increase productivity and make the pie bigger, our government instead brings a few hundred thousand subjects from the subcontinent and puts them on the table to eat from the same size pie, hence the negative GDP growth per person in the last 2 years. The population increases faster than the GDP.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, gearbox said:

We don't rely on China, they just buy our stuff,

I think that's the member's point.  We rely on China to buy our "stuff."  Could you imagine if they didn't?

 

We have seen what happens in Australia when China's economy slows.  Imagine if they found another seller tomorrow, or just stopped buying to beat us down on price, which is hat happened in the GFC.  Australia practically begged China to buy our "stuff."

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