Brown out Samui

[Social Media]

 

With the 2024 presidential election fast approaching, the political landscape has shifted dramatically in the past few weeks. Vice President Kamala Harris, once riding high after a post-primary "honeymoon" period, is now in a razor-thin battle against former President Donald Trump. Polls from key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan show a tight race, with no clear front-runner emerging as November draws nearer.

 

A new Quinnipiac poll released this week highlights Trump’s resurgence. He leads Harris in Wisconsin and Michigan, states that were crucial to his victory in 2016 and swung back to Democratic control in 2020. RealClearPolitics’s polling average now shows Trump ahead in Michigan for the first time in months, signaling potential trouble for the Harris campaign. These tight margins underscore a larger trend: the race is too close to call in most of the crucial swing states. In many of these, the lead for either candidate is in the low single digits, meaning a small shift in voter sentiment could alter the outcome dramatically.

 

Both parties recognize that the election could hinge on a single state or even a few thousand votes. Pennsylvania, with its large electorate and history of flipping between parties, remains a particular focus. A small shift of one or two percentage points in states like Michigan or Pennsylvania could change the entire dynamic of the race. As things stand, no one has a clear path to victory in the Electoral College, leaving the outcome uncertain.

 

While the presidential race is in a deadlock, the Senate races tell a different story. Democrats are facing an increasingly steep climb to maintain control of the upper chamber. Vulnerable Republican incumbents like Rick Scott in Florida and Ted Cruz in Texas are holding on by thin margins, according to a recent Marist poll. However, these races are still competitive, with both candidates at risk of losing. Meanwhile, in Montana, GOP candidate Tim Sheehy appears to be pulling ahead, jeopardizing the seat held by Democrat Jon Tester, one of the Senate’s few remaining moderates. With the likely loss of Tester’s seat and the expected defeat of West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin, Republican control of the Senate seems almost inevitable.

 

Democratic candidates are still leading in several important Senate races, including Maryland, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona. But even if these races break in favor of the Democrats, they could still be left facing a slim 51-49 GOP majority in the Senate come January.

 

The narrowing gap between Harris and Trump in the presidential race has left Democrats frustrated. Despite a significant advantage in fundraising and grassroots support, Harris’s campaign has struggled to translate these strengths into a clear polling lead. This is particularly concerning as the campaign heads into its final stretch with few opportunities left to change the polls in a big way. With the debates behind them, Harris and Trump must rely on last-minute campaign efforts and strategies to sway undecided voters.

 

Trump has already unveiled one such effort—a large rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. While billed as a bold play to flip the traditionally Democratic state, the rally is likely more about energizing his base and generating media attention. His running mate, JD Vance, has already confirmed his attendance, signaling the importance of the event for their campaign.

 

Harris, meanwhile, is sending Minnesota Governor Tim Walz to Wisconsin for a series of campaign events in hopes of solidifying her support in that key battleground state. Walz’s reappearance on the campaign trail after weeks out of the spotlight suggests the Harris campaign is making a renewed push in areas where Trump is gaining momentum.

 

With October already more than a third over, both campaigns are running out of time to sway undecided voters. The race remains a toss-up, with neither candidate able to claim a decisive lead. In the final weeks, every rally, ad, and event could tip the scales. Both Harris and Trump are likely feeling the pressure as they make their final pitches to the American people in this unpredictable and fiercely competitive election.

 

Based on a report from The Independent 2024-10-12

 

 

 

[mdr224]

With trump being devils incarnate, and democrats having unlimited funds and the media on their side, its understandably frustrating to see news like this. Trump should have no chance, and yet kamala needs to be propped up to appear like a suitable candidate. What can one say about this, other than it is what it is

[Cryingdick]

The cracks in the matrix are becoming more obvious everyday.

[Tug]

Oh I don’t know fellas she seems to be doing just fine it’s wonderful to hear a normal person who’s definitely qualified running for the office.There are 2 reasons it’s close misogyny and her race.Trump is that flawed…..im thinking she’s going to win trump is just to flawed we are sick of him.

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, mdr224 said:

With trump being devils incarnate, and democrats having unlimited funds and the media on their side, its understandably frustrating to see news like this. Trump should have no chance, and yet kamala needs to be propped up to appear like a suitable candidate. What can one say about this, other than it is what it is

You are confused by recent Republican funded junk polls, and the Media's need for a horse race.

 

 

[flexomike]

2 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are confused by recent Republican funded junk polls, and the Media's need for a horse race.

 

 

you are the one that is confused

[HappyExpat57]

3 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are confused by recent Republican funded junk polls, and the Media's need for a horse race.

I believe Hillary lost her run because the polls all said she was a shoo-in, leaving many voters thinking "Oh, I don't need to vote, she's got this." I also believe Harris is much further ahead than polls indicate and isn't reported as such to keep the fires burning.

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

I believe Hillary lost her run because the polls all said she was a shoo-in, leaving many voters thinking "Oh, I don't need to vote, she's got this." I also believe Harris is much further ahead than polls indicate and isn't reported as such to keep the fires burning.

I am not one to say the polls are wrong.

 

If the polls are wrong, Trump could be ahead.

[Danderman123]

9 minutes ago, flexomike said:

you are the one that is confused

There are many problems to solve.

 

I guess you think only one can be fixed at a time.

[Danderman123]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote

 

Early voting numbers are very positive for the Dems.

 

[mdr224]

33 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You are confused by recent Republican funded junk polls, and the Media's need for a horse race.

 

 

Sounds pretty desperate coming from a guy who places all his faith in media

[Danderman123]

44 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Sounds pretty desperate coming from a guy who places all his faith in media

You have no idea what I put my faith in. But here's a clue: it's reality based. Early voting numbers are data points. I wouldn't ignore data, if I were you.

[brewsterbudgen]

A major <deleted> up by the Democrats.  If they'd replaced Joe with Newsom they'd have won easily. Harris has been shown to be the lightweight she is.  Prepare for a Trump landslide.  It will be chaos!

[mdr224]

7 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

You have no idea what I put my faith in. But here's a clue: it's reality based. Early voting numbers are data points. I wouldn't ignore data, if I were you.

Theres nothing about your posts that indicate you live in reality. I think if trump won your brain would explode

[flexomike]

2 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

There are many problems to solve.

 

I guess you think only one can be fixed at a time.

need to fix one before you can worry about many

 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, mdr224 said:

Theres nothing about your posts that indicate you live in reality. I think if trump won your brain would explode

It's a close election and Trump could win.

 

But the early voting numbers are good for Harris, she is ahead in the polls, and is raising a lot more money. And people aren't going to Trump's rallies.

[spidermike007]

This sure says a lot about the Democratic Party and their selection of Harris, she should be up by 10 points or more considering what a lousy candidate Trump is, considering how often he puts his foot in his mouth, considering how often and Vance shoots himself in the foot. But she continues to languish, she continues to have a very hard time finding a coherent message, and the dems continue to lack any sort of policy message.

 

Not that Trump has much of a message besides hating non whites, supporting genocide with Israel, and raising taxes in the form of tariffs. Trump does not have much policy either, and he is an incredibly dangerous, hateful and reckless man, and the last person in the world who should be president of America. 

 

Such is the very sad state of America that it's reduced to two very poor choices. However at least one of those choices is not a convicted felon and a lifelong huckster and scam artist. 

[Danderman123]

Trump's message:

 

Scary brown People!

[Thingamabob]

Checking with my bookmakers there does appear to be a swing in favour of Trump for now, but no indication of whether or not it will last.

[RichardColeman]

8 hours ago, brewsterbudgen said:

A major <deleted> up by the Democrats.  If they'd replaced Joe with Newsom they'd have won easily. Harris has been shown to be the lightweight she is.  Prepare for a Trump landslide.  It will be chaos!

Think you are way off the mark with that one, Newsome's state is an absolute disaster , and NO american would want that rolled out country wide. Newsome is also not an idiot, whoever they run will lose against Trump due to Biden / Harris 4 years. Newsome knows that he would lose against Trump and is biding his time. 

 

Trump will bring some order, Harris will bring more of the same nonsense she has been doing with Biden,

 

The democrats need a Trump win to revamp their party, kick out the radical left and become what they were before. I would not be surprised to learn Harris was the sacrificial lamb

 

 

[thesetat2013]

This story must really be throwing the Dems in here and Harris fanatics here into a frenzy. Haha... I love it. By the time the elections are done, If Trump wins the Dems in here will be bald from pulling their hair out. And they will be back in the forum predicting Trump to be ousted or some other B.S. 

 

Whereas if Harris wins, the Republicans will have their heads bowed. Not in shame or in anger, but in remorse for what happens to the country and the world the is influenced by the US. 

 

 

Either way, the country is F---ked. 

[Danderman123]

1 hour ago, thesetat2013 said:

This story must really be throwing the Dems in here and Harris fanatics here into a frenzy. Haha... I love it. By the time the elections are done, If Trump wins the Dems in here will be bald from pulling their hair out. And they will be back in the forum predicting Trump to be ousted or some other B.S. 

 

Whereas if Harris wins, the Republicans will have their heads bowed. Not in shame or in anger, but in remorse for what happens to the country and the world the is influenced by the US. 

 

 

Either way, the country is F---ked. 

Gee, it's a good thing you're not an American.

 

Anyway "it's a close election" is intentional - Harris wants to avoid Hillary Clinton's over confidence, which inspired many Democrats to vote third party. 

 

Won't happen this time.

[Tug]

13 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Think you are way off the mark with that one, Newsome's state is an absolute disaster , and NO american would want that rolled out country wide. Newsome is also not an idiot, whoever they run will lose against Trump due to Biden / Harris 4 years. Newsome knows that he would lose against Trump and is biding his time. 

 

Trump will bring some order, Harris will bring more of the same nonsense she has been doing with Biden,

 

The democrats need a Trump win to revamp their party, kick out the radical left and become what they were before. I would not be surprised to learn Harris was the sacrificial lamb

 

 

I beg to differ California has the 5th largest economy on the planet wonderful weather beautiful lands the property values are through the roof.that being said it’s over taxed imo and no slackers she will chew you up and spit you out.Its been good to me!On topic many women in my experience keep things close to their chest (no pun intended) my feeling is many to keep peace in the home aren’t giving voice to their feelings.the republicans have set them back 50 years and they are well aware of trump’s threat to our democracy.Ive also found in my experience that women tend to pay attention in school us guys are a bit nutty they see the threat more clearly than many guys all hung up on the bravado.lets turn the page ditch the albatross!

[Celsius]

World leader or word salad?

 

 

[EVENKEEL]

Now they have Obama trying to shame black men into voting for Harris. Guess Black men shouldn't vote for a white president. 

[mdr224]

2 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

Now they have Obama trying to shame black men into voting for Harris. Guess Black men shouldn't vote for a white president. 

Wouldnt be so rich if obama had done anything for blacks

[morrobay]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Gee, it's a good thing you're not an American.

 

Anyway "it's a close election" is intentional - Harris wants to avoid Hillary Clinton's over confidence, which inspired many Democrats to vote third party. 

 

Won't happen this time.

Don't bet the farm on that. Jill Stein is running in this election. Some say she cost Hillery the election. Ho Ho Ho.https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/11/jill-stein-ad-third-party-presidential-candidates-2024/75625798007/

[Danderman123]

5 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Don't bet the farm on that. Jill Stein is running in this election. Some say she cost Hillery the election. Ho Ho Ho.https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/10/11/jill-stein-ad-third-party-presidential-candidates-2024/75625798007/

Some leftists indeed will vote for Jill Stein. That's why the Dems are not claiming they will win for sure, because they don't want overconfident Dems to throw their vote away on Jill Stein.

[earlinclaifornia]

 

[Trippy]

Voters have to choose between an ass*ole and an incompetent, either way America loses.