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Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market...

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win. 

“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.

https://archive.ph/1UnKO#selection-5913.0-5913.174

[CallumWK]

Polymarket is just one betting site where Trump outperforms Harris by far. You got nothing

 

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/17/trumps-polymarket-odds-top-60-how-election-betting-markets-differ-from-polls/

 

The nascent election betting market landscape is not the only financial instrument moving toward a Trump victory. Shares in Trump Media and Technology Group, the Truth Social’s parent company primarily owned by Trump, are up 86% in October, with the low-revenue social media company’s stock movement often viewed as a proxy for Trump’s election odds. And “you can see” evidence in the broader stock market that investors are “very convinced Trump is going to win,” billionaire hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller told Bloomberg Thursday.

Edited 2 hours ago by CallumWK