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The Trump campaign is expressing a cautious optimism regarding Donald Trump’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election, fueled by encouraging early voting numbers that suggest a potential victory over Vice President Kamala Harris. Campaign officials have noted that, although it is "too early to declare victory," initial returns in key states look more promising than in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. 

 

An adviser on a campaign call stated, "Overall, both nationally and in battleground states, we are seeing strong returns for Republicans so far. From where we’re sitting right now, things look pretty good. Encouraging signs across the board. The voter registration gains in all the partisan registration states have been tremendously in our favor." The data the campaign is seeing includes an increase in registered Republican early voters in critical swing states like Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, where numbers are up by double digits compared to 2020.

 

Additionally, mail-in ballots—a format often favored by Democrats—are reportedly down significantly from four years ago in Pennsylvania, and reduced by 79% in Georgia and 25% in Michigan. These numbers may indicate that Democrats are not turning out for Harris as they did for Biden in 2020.

 

The Trump team is also seeing what they call "sustained overperformance" in states like Virginia and Ohio, although the adviser clarified, "It’s certainly too early to begin declaring victory, but it is certainly worth pointing out that our share of the early vote is turning in the right direction."

 

Adding to the campaign’s optimism are recent national polls from both the Wall Street Journal and CNBC, which show Trump ahead of Harris in the popular vote—a benchmark Republicans have not achieved in 20 years. Despite these favorable indicators, Trump has encouraged his supporters to vote early and in record numbers to ensure the election is "too big to rig."

 

Karoline Leavitt, Trump 2024’s national press secretary, affirmed the campaign’s momentum, saying, "President Trump continues to dominate in poll after poll, Republicans have made massive voter registration gains, and we are far outperforming in our share of the early vote relative to two or four years ago across all battleground states." She added, "Voters know that Kamala Harris has destroyed our country, but President Trump will fix it — and that is why he is well-positioned for victory on November 5."

 

Meanwhile, signs of apprehension are emerging within the Democratic Party, as former President Barack Obama and Harris’ campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon acknowledge that the race will be “tight.” During an event aimed at mobilizing Black voters in Pittsburgh, Obama expressed concerns about turnout, stating, "We have yet to see the same kinds of energy and turnout in all corners of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running." This comment also hints at polling data suggesting Trump may achieve a Republican high among Black voters, potentially breaking a 64-year record.

 

Former President Bill Clinton also shared concerns in Arizona, noting Harris is "extremely vulnerable, more vulnerable than she deserves to be." NBC News recently reported on growing fears within the Harris campaign that key states like Michigan and Wisconsin could slip away, potentially mirroring Trump’s 2016 sweep of the “Blue Wall.”

 

Some Democrats, including party insiders, have voiced dissatisfaction with Harris’ campaign strategy. A senior party figure commented, "They are not thinking ‘Blue Wall’ at all. They are just not thinking," in response to Harris spending time in Texas, a predominantly Republican state, to discuss abortion rights instead of focusing on crucial battlegrounds. Another insider criticized her campaign’s media approach, likening it to "a first-time congressional candidate running as a sacrificial lamb."

 

The Trump campaign's current standing, paired with rising concerns among Democrats, hints at an unpredictable but highly competitive race as the election nears.

 

Based on a report from the NYP 2024-10-26

 

 

 

[Tug]

I think they are in for a big disappointment lmao 🤣 

[neeray]

Wishful thinking doesn't wash in political contests. Dream on Donny, it's not going to happen.