When Our Money Dies

[farangkinok]

3 minutes ago, Dexxter said:

 

The idea is to keep your ASSETS in something that is stable and convert little bits at a time into cash for your day-to-day living expenses. Every birthday, anniversary and new year I give my wife a small gift of gold. Not handbags or other temporary trivia, but real gold from the local gold shop. I have taught her to appreciate the long term goal of having assets that will be there in an uncertain future. She now sees the value in her small hoard.

 

[Old Curmudgeon]

1 minute ago, Dexxter said:

Every birthday, anniversary and new year I give my wife a small gift of gold ... real gold from the local gold shop.

 

And you are posting that on a public forum ?? ??

 

When the airplane runs out of fuel, a new sort of free-lance job will be lurking outside of gold shops and following customers home.

Then remembering those houses.

 

It is my opinion that owning gold, or silver, or other "assets" won't be of much value when the money dies.

 

I have other ideas of what will have value, lots of value, but am saving those thoughts for later.

 

[jwest10]

31 minutes ago, newnative said:

     My money isn't dying.  Dollar to baht today is 33.79.  In the 14 years I have been here I think it's ranged from a low of 28 or 29 to a recent summer high of around 37.  Probably the average has been around 31 or 32.  I didn't like when it dipped below 30 but that didn't last long.  Meanwhile, I get COLAs with my pension and Social Security  and the COLAs are easily keeping up with Thailand's low inflation.  

Low inflation in Thailand and not where I live in Kanchanaburi 

[Old Curmudgeon]

7 minutes ago, bkk_mike said:

.. something that goes up, at least in line with inflation, like property, or stocks, or even gold...

 

But, but, but ... what if everything goes down, down, down?

All assets fall to near zero.

The velocity of money also approaches zero.

All we're left with is barter.

 

What to do then?

Not an easy question to answer, I know.

Not even easy to think about it.

 

Edited Monday at 05:20 AM by Old Curmudgeon

[FritsSikkink]

4 hours ago, jippytum said:

 In most places   worldwide  governments are giving free handouts to millions and millions of illegals who have never paid one iota into the system and never will. 

No wonder western currencies are under pressure. 

They spend way too much on war.

[harryviking]

8 minutes ago, Old Curmudgeon said:

 

Good idea to collect gold.

But is it a good idea to announce that on a public forum??

 

And "until things get back to normal again", doesn't enter into my planning at all.

How do you think that might happen -- the getting back to normal??

Lol! I am safe, so no worries here. When it comes to "back to normal again, I am not that into everything to be sure what that could be. Every nation should maybe come up with some kind of Gold backed currency. The FIAT money will not work. I am also not so sure that The Central banks should be allowed to exist any more! I am sure there are more professional people here that can give us a clue of what might be the answer. Until then, I just enjoy life and ride my bikes!! 😄 Be well!

[HighPriority]

11 minutes ago, Old Curmudgeon said:

 

And you are posting that on a public forum ?? ??

 

When the airplane runs out of fuel, a new sort of free-lance job will be lurking outside of gold shops and following customers home.

Then remembering those houses.

 

It is my opinion that owning gold, or silver, or other "assets" won't be of much value when the money dies.

 

I have other ideas of what will have value, lots of value, but am saving those thoughts for later.

 

Guns.

If you cookers are correct, the ONLY safe currency will be lots of guns and even more bullets.

And the thought of you cookers running around armed to the back teeth is repugnant to the remnants of civilization.

[Presnock]

4 hours ago, soalbundy said:

That is an exaggeration, it isn't in anyone's interest, not even BRICS would want that although in 3 to 5 years BRICS will cause a massive wealth transfer from West to East but an impoverished West will cause cause huge problems for BRICS themselves. As BRICS nations will see an increase in living standards there will be a corresponding fall in standards in the West, especially in heavily indebted America but not to poverty levels. The West will fight back of course and Europe with its great experience in manipulation  due to its colonial past may even mitigate the BRICS successes to some degree, America with its usual less sophisticated approach may even try war as a last resort but such methods are doomed to fail. Whatever, a great reset is coming, blessed are those without debt.

well the just concluded BRICS to welcome some new countries - some from the Middle East and then they invited a bunch of other countries - among them Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand and these 4 plus others will become official BRICS countries next year totalling 42 countries.  At that point, that group will consist of 46% of the world's population, 37% of the global GDP and 42% of the oil ouput.  They report that they plan to introduce a new currency to counter those of the western banking system.   Since Thailand will be a BRICS country, how might that impact the western expats?  Anybody have a clue?

 

[jwest10]

23 minutes ago, jwest10 said:

Low inflation in Thailand and not where I live in Kanchanaburi 

Jist noticed you American and yes your rates are very good!!!

[Old Curmudgeon]

12 minutes ago, Presnock said:

Since Thailand will be a BRICS country, how might that impact the western expats?  Anybody have a clue?

 

Excellent question.

I wish I'd thought of the BRICS factor.

 

Thank you, @Presnock for posting about that.

Edited Monday at 05:55 AM by Old Curmudgeon

[Peterphuket]

7 hours ago, spidermike007 said:

I am in the US right now, and the prices and inflation are mind blowing. The cheapest lunch we have found was $30 for two. Junky good. That is 1,000 baht, anytime you want something basic. A bag of groceries is 3,000 baht.

 

 A friend of mine is looking for an apartment to move to in LA, and really small, simple places are 70,000 baht per month and up. Nice two bedrooms are closer to 100,000 baht. Decent homes start at 125,000 baht per month. The cost of nearly everything has gone up dramatically. Runaway inflation? 

 

Thailand is still reasonable. It used to be cheap. Has not been cheap for a long time. But, it is still reasonable. I know people who pay 10,000 baht a month for newer 3 bedroom houses in nice towns. In major cities in the US? $2000-3800 a month. That is 120,000 baht!

 

I had my motorbike seat recently redone on my scooter. 400 baht. A friend of mine had similar work done in the US. $275.

 

I recently had a guy come over and insulate my ceiling. I bought the insulation and paid him 2000 baht for labor. In the US? $500 and up.

 

I recently had an electrician do some work on the house. Nearly a full day of work for two men. Paid him 2000 baht. In the US? $800 and up.

 

An oil change for my scooter costs me 200 baht, with Castrol oil. In the US? $75.

 

When I travel here I stay in nice four star hotels in Bangkok. Usually 1800-2000 baht. In the US? $130 for a crappy motel. $250 and up for a nice room.

 

I eat well here. In a smaller town you can get a three course meal for 150-250 baht. In the US? 2000 baht and up, plus tax and a nearly mandatory 15% tip.

 

I visit the emergency room here to visit a specialist, and with x-rays I am out the door for 2000 baht, at a private hospital. In the US? $300-2000.

 

An anecdote on this subject. A good friend of mine got in a bad motorcycle accident some time ago. He almost lost his leg. He got his first of 11 operations at Bangkok Hospital Samui. It costs him over a million baht. They wanted to do a second procedure. They quoted him 1,400,000 baht. He decided to transfer to Bangkok. He was quoted 460,000 baht for the same procedure, at a top private hospital there. The surgeon told him that he worked at a public hospital too, and could do the same operation there, for alot less money. He told him he would get him a quote. In the interim, my friend called a good friend of his, in San Diego, who is an orthopedic surgeon. Since my friend is a retired chiropractor, he knew all the terminology, and explained what he needed, and asked for the best price. His friend called him back the next day, and quoted him $960,000, with cash discounts! The local surgeon here got back to him, and told him he could do it for 46,000 baht. He transferred, and they did all the rest of his procedures. So, 1,400,000 at Bangkok Hospital, 460,000 at Vejthani Hospital, and 46,000 at the public hospital, with an excellent surgeon. VS. 31,000,000 baht in the US. Again, no complaints from this peanut gallery.

 

Friends of mine, who are single, enjoy the company of a young, beautiful woman for a couple of hours, for 2500 baht. In the US? $800 an hour now for a beauty, with alot of attitude.

 

I could go on and on, all day long. I live at a level here, that I would never be able to live at, in the US, in most of Europe, in Oz, or Canada. 

 

 

You don't have to go on because it's the same all over the western world.

I recently mentioned that I was having dinner with 6 people and two children in a normal restaurant in the Netherlands where I had to pay 550 euro, nearly $ 600!

If you can see the smal part of salmon....

[Walker88]

The end is nigh....and always will be.

 

Fiat money is always about to evaporate, any second now, even though they are currently more than 180 versions of it in every day use around the world. We all know fiat has no inherent value, but we collectively agree it's good enough. We pretend, so that we need not kill someone just to get a piece of meat.

 

Neither does gold have any inherent value. Rarity or finiteness alone does not create value; it still requires that at least one side to any transaction believes something has value.

 

Gold might have some value in a financial crisis, but it has absolutely no value in a financial calamity.  Pensioners are going to stroll into a 7-11 with a diamond file, shave off a few grains of Au, and in return get their cheese toast? No.

 

Necessities alone have actual value, and one man's necessity might be another man's excess. A man dying of thirst would do anything for a glass of water, but I guy with a hundred million gallons of potable water wouldn't give anyone a single baht for a glass of water.

 

Talk of the so-called BRICS creating some alternative means of exchange are a fantasy. Weak economies banding together become a band of weak economies. Plus, none of the BRICS has any sort of reliable rule of law, so none is an attractive parking place for wealth. A massive set of capital markets with ease of entry and exit, such as the US has, is attractive. Besides, the future is technology in general and AI in particular. It's likely AI is going to provide a solution to virtually limitless energy, so the current 'gas station with nukes' (Russia) is likely to become a Blockbuster Video: loaded up with things nobody wants.

 

If someday everyone collectively decided fiat was worthless, society would make Mad Max look like summer camp. Isolated arable land would have value. Guns and ammo would have value. Not being a fat old man trying to hide a few bars of gold would have value relative to the fat old gold bug.

 

Thinking one can plan for a fat tail event is a fool's game. If fiat goes, civilization goes. There would be no refuge. It might make sense to plan for a financial crisis, as crises are temporary. A financial calamity is Armageddon, and survival might not even be worth the effort.

 

Have a nice day.

 

 

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, Presnock said:

well the just concluded BRICS to welcome some new countries - some from the Middle East and then they invited a bunch of other countries - among them Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand and these 4 plus others will become official BRICS countries next year totalling 42 countries.  At that point, that group will consist of 46% of the world's population, 37% of the global GDP and 42% of the oil ouput.  They report that they plan to introduce a new currency to counter those of the western banking system.   Since Thailand will be a BRICS country, how might that impact the western expats?  Anybody have a clue?

 

Well not in the immediate future but this could be dangerous in two ways, (1) The Thai Baht would change to a Brics 'unit' which being partially backed by gold as well as being backed by energy (oil) of some Brics members would not only be extremely stable but would rise in value against all Fiat currencies. (2) There would, sooner or later, be a military component like NATO, self protection against outside interference and aggression, so we would have two blocks, East and West, a mirror image of the cold war with the Soviets. Imagine living in a free democratic Poland as an expat in days before a Soviet take over only to find one day that you as a westerner now live in a potential enemies country with your pension having lost half its value and you either face expulsion or are viewed with suspicion. Thailand wouldn't need or want western tourists (they are broke anyway) all their tourists would come visa free from Brics countrys, as a sort of Brics EU.

[Dexxter]

6 minutes ago, Peterphuket said:

You don't have to go on because it's the same all over the western world.

I recently mentioned that I was having dinner with 6 people and two children in a normal restaurant in the Netherlands where I had to pay 550 euro, nearly $ 600!

If you can see the smal part of salmon....

 

I paid $24 Australian (about US$16) for a really delicious large pizza a couple of nights ago at a local Melbourne restaurant, not a pizza place but a proper restaurant. A glass of wine was AU$12 (US$8) which is more expensive than drinking at home but still quite reasonable. Being in Australia, no tax or tip added to the bill.

I cannot imagine paying US$100 (AU$150) for what you show in that photo even if you add in a few drinks. I might have to avoid the Netherlands in future.

Of course when in Bangkok my food bill is much, much lower except for pizza and possibly wine 🙄

[Peterphuket]

5 hours ago, Dexxter said:

 

I paid $24 Australian (about US$16) for a really delicious large pizza a couple of nights ago at a local Melbourne restaurant, not a pizza place but a proper restaurant. A glass of wine was AU$12 (US$8) which is more expensive than drinking at home but still quite reasonable. Being in Australia, no tax or tip added to the bill.

I cannot imagine paying US$100 (AU$150) for what you show in that photo even if you add in a few drinks. I might have to avoid the Netherlands in future.

Of course when in Bangkok my food bill is much, much lower except for pizza and possibly wine 🙄

Why do you think I escape that country more than 25 years ago?

[KhunLA]

To the topic ... when ?  Don't wait for that to happen.

 

... be self sufficiency & independent.   Take care, control of your own affairs, and you won't need the rest of the world for anything.   Rely on others, and you will fail 

[Dexxter]

17 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

Imagine living in a free democratic Poland as an expat in days before a Soviet take over only to find one day that you as a westerner now live in a potential enemies country with your pension having lost half its value and you either face expulsion or are viewed with suspicion. Thailand wouldn't need or want western tourists (they are broke anyway) all their tourists would come visa free from Brics countrys, as a sort of Brics EU.

 

This is a very valid point and another reason not to put all your eggs in one basket by selling all Western assets and moving permanently to Thailand. You will never be a full citizen of Thailand.

[newbee2022]

1 hour ago, Dexxter said:

 

The idea is to keep your ASSETS in something that is stable and convert little bits at a time into cash for your day-to-day living expenses. Every birthday, anniversary and new year I give my wife a small gift of gold. Not handbags or other temporary trivia, but real gold from the local gold shop. I have taught her to appreciate the long term goal of having assets that will be there in an uncertain future. She now sees the value in her small hoard.

Good idea and true love

[HighPriority]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Well not in the immediate future but this could be dangerous in two ways, (1) The Thai Baht would change to a Brics 'unit' which being partially backed by gold as well as being backed by energy (oil) of some Brics members would not only be extremely stable but would rise in value against all Fiat currencies. (2) There would, sooner or later, be a military component like NATO, self protection against outside interference and aggression, so we would have two blocks, East and West, a mirror image of the cold war with the Soviets. Imagine living in a free democratic Poland as an expat in days before a Soviet take over only to find one day that you as a westerner now live in a potential enemies country with your pension having lost half its value and you either face expulsion or are viewed with suspicion. Thailand wouldn't need or want western tourists (they are broke anyway) all their tourists would come visa free from Brics countrys, as a sort of Brics EU.

You lost me with oil being an energy of the future… 🤣🤣🤣

[soalbundy]

1 minute ago, HighPriority said:

You lost me with oil being an energy of the future… 🤣🤣🤣

Oil and gas still are and probably will still be for the next 20 years  important energy providers apart from that it oil is used for lubricants, plastics, fertilizers, road surfaces, in paints and chemicals. Countrys that have oil also have gas. Green energy has made huge strides but it still isn't able to replace oil and gas and probably never will completely, I can't envisage heavy mining machinery or tanks and fighter aircraft running on batteries.

[FruitPudding]

3 hours ago, bkk_mike said:

Your investments are in cash?

Not something that goes up, at least in line with inflation, like property, or stocks, or even gold, which was the chart you published.

 

Cash isn't an investment. 

 

You are highlighting my point.

[thrilled]

If you believe there’s a chance you will run out of money in Thailand then you might not want to move there. Easier to find a job at your home country

[newnative]

2 hours ago, Old Curmudgeon said:

 

@newnative seems to trust his government and a pension plan.

 

I don't.

I think both are fragile.

Thinking about Weimar hyperinflation in 1922-1923.

What if similar happens everywhere in the world, at the same time?

        I don't spend many sleepless nights pondering what ifs.  But, I also don't have all my financial eggs in one basket, or one country.  Should Thailand and the USA both go belly up at the same time, resulting in Thai baht, USA dollars, stocks, mutual funds, and real estate all being worthless, then spouse and I would, indeed, be SOL.   And, likely not the only ones.  

        

[HighPriority]

2 hours ago, soalbundy said:

Oil and gas still are and probably will still be for the next 20 years  important energy providers apart from that it oil is used for lubricants, plastics, fertilizers, road surfaces, in paints and chemicals. Countrys that have oil also have gas. Green energy has made huge strides but it still isn't able to replace oil and gas and probably never will completely, I can't envisage heavy mining machinery or tanks and fighter aircraft running on batteries.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/diesel-mining-truck-converted-to-electric-to-lower-emissions/104230918?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link

[Peterphuket]

10 hours ago, Peterphuket said:

You don't have to go on because it's the same all over the western world.

I recently mentioned that I was having dinner with 6 people and two children in a normal restaurant in the Netherlands where I had to pay 550 euro, nearly $ 600!

If you can see the smal part of salmon....

When I see this again, it reminds me, this was the main course, but the appetizer was even worse.

We ordered sashimi, it was possible to order for four people at the same time, we got 15 pieces and no Wasabi.

[soalbundy]

55 minutes ago, HighPriority said:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-28/diesel-mining-truck-converted-to-electric-to-lower-emissions/104230918?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=link

Yes very impressive, I presume they still need lubricants. I know that Nazi Germany had a prototype heavy tank with electric motors on all the driving wheels but since there's no charging stations on a battle field they still needed a diesel engine for charging and possible complications with dirt ruining the motors meant it was turned down. No electric fighter planes I note. Australia is ideal because of the warm weather, once you get weather with snow and ice the range of electric motors is cut down a lot and the charging times go over the roof, sometimes they wont charge at all. New battery technology is needed.

[Old Curmudgeon]

2 hours ago, newnative said:

        I don't spend many sleepless nights pondering what ifs.  ... Thailand and the USA both go belly up at the same time...

 

As expats, if that happens and we are living in our home countries, there's a chance of finding some productive work, even if very meager.

Enough to survive, hopefully.

But in Thailand -- and in particular for retired expats -- work not allowed.

 

In my opinion, the money IS dying.

So I do ponder a contingency plan.

 

[soalbundy]

4 hours ago, FruitPudding said:

 

Cash isn't an investment. 

 

You are highlighting my point.

You can sell stocks, land and gold and what do you get, fiat money. You cant by food at the supermarket with gold. Fiat money / paper money is still needed for everyday use, even digital is just a representation of cash. At the moment cash isn't a good storage of wealth of course but a reset has to happen to make it so, society depends on trust in the money that is earned, on savings that don't disappear with inflation so I am certain that a reset is coming and it cant be just bank controlled digital currency because if that isn't backed by something (gold?) then its still just fiat.

[FruitPudding]

3 minutes ago, soalbundy said:

You can sell stocks, land and gold and what do you get, fiat money. You cant by food at the supermarket with gold. Fiat money / paper money is still needed for everyday use, even digital is just a representation of cash. At the moment cash isn't a good storage of wealth of course but a reset has to happen to make it so, society depends on trust in the money that is earned, on savings that don't disappear with inflation so I am certain that a reset is coming and it cant be just bank controlled digital currency because if that isn't backed by something (gold?) then its still just fiat.

 

Cash has never been a good store of wealth. 

 

Savings always disappear with inflation. 

[soalbundy]

2 minutes ago, FruitPudding said:

 

Cash has never been a good store of wealth. 

 

Savings always disappear with inflation. 

No, not over long periods but then nothing is certain, stocks can fall as can house prices or gold, when the $hit hits the fan you had better have a vegetable garden, chickens and a few pigs.