Thai Baht Expected to Slide to 35.50 per Dollar by 2025

[Skeptic7]

21 hours ago, nowhereman said:

35.50 THB to USD? That's how much it was 5 month ago, not to mention that is was 37.00 THB 7 month ago 😉 What is all this talking about 😉 

Cuz it was 32.36 just 3 months ago. 

[Isaan sailor]

2 hours ago, CallumWK said:

 

Of course I didn't, I leave that to the experts like you. I guess you have compared the baht to the other 172 currencies that are not in the index?

I'm all ears.

Go to Wise.  You can easily compare currencies.  Set the timeframe to Year To Date.  If you chose Dollars, notice the YTD for any currencies against the Dollar.  You can clearly see how the Baht has resisted the Dollar’s recent rise, contrary to most other currencies.  Look at the graph,  Most currency comparisons show a distinct V shape., The Baht looks more like a left hand check mark.  The question is, why?

[CallumWK]

3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Go to Wise.  You can easily compare currencies.  Set the timeframe to Year To Date.  If you chose Dollars, notice the YTD for any currencies against the Dollar.  You can clearly see how the Baht has resisted the Dollar’s recent rise, contrary to most other currencies.  Look at the graph,  Most currency comparisons show a distinct V shape., The Baht looks more like a left hand check mark.  The question is, why?

 

So you have compared 172 currencies in Wise. How long did that take you?

[chiang mai]

3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Go to Wise.  You can easily compare currencies.  Set the timeframe to Year To Date.  If you chose Dollars, notice the YTD for any currencies against the Dollar.  You can clearly see how the Baht has resisted the Dollar’s recent rise, contrary to most other currencies.  Look at the graph,  Most currency comparisons show a distinct V shape., The Baht looks more like a left hand check mark.  The question is, why?

Currencies don't all rise and fall against USD, by equal amounts, they vary based on whether the currency is pegged or not and on the degree to which the economy is dollar dependent, eg imported oil

 

 

 

 

[Woke to Sounds]

23 hours ago, kevin612 said:

Thai baht is the strongest currency in Southeast Asia 

Absolute bullship.

 

US dollar is.

[Chivas]

21 hours ago, UWEB said:

It's Holiday high Season, so the Central Bank keeps the Bath stronger.

lol

[Woke to Sounds]

22 hours ago, nowhereman said:

What is all this talking about

This is about getting you to shovel your hard earned shekels into the mirage of cryptocurrency....... backed by nothing but the electricity on some schvantz' hard drive.

 

Caveat emptor buddy!

 

Best get yo ar$e into some Kanadian real estate buddy.  Winnipeg!

[chiang mai]

Put another way, 200k is what as a percentage of 32 mill?

[connda]

Good!

[IvorBiggun2]

41 minutes ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Absolute bullship.

 

US dollar is.

Who has the strongest currency in Southeast Asia?

 

 

The ringgit was the region's strongest currency in the region, and inflation remained stable.

[chiang mai]

44 minutes ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Absolute bullship.

 

US dollar is.

No country is SE Asia has USD as it's currency, I don't think you understand the issue!

[Woke to Sounds]

1 minute ago, chiang mai said:

No country is SE Asia has USD as it's currency, I don't think you understand the issue!

Cheers buddy

 

Cambodia's currency, the KHR - Khmer riel - is pegged to the US dollah.

 

Most. Valuable. Currency.

[chiang mai]

29 minutes ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Cheers buddy

 

Cambodia's currency, the KHR - Khmer riel - is pegged to the US dollah.

 

Most. Valuable. Currency.

There are several methods of pegging to USD, hard pegged, soft pegged, managed float, crawling peg, basket peg and so on. NONE of those methods makes USD the currency of any of those countries. not even a little bit. So when you talk about the currencies of SE Asian countries, you have to describe the actual currency they use, not the one they wished they use.

[Baht Simpson]

When I came to live in Thailand the BHT-GBP rate was bouncing around 75. I'm glad I built my house at that rate.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

Currencies don't all rise and fall against USD, by equal amounts, they vary based on whether the currency is pegged or not and on the degree to which the economy is dollar dependent, eg imported oil

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the thorough explanation—once again.

But if the Baht is only partially dependent on the USD, then why did we get a better exchange rate last May and June, when the USD was considerably lower than today?  Did Thailand suddenly stop importing oil, or perhaps a looser peg?  

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, CallumWK said:

 

So you have compared 172 currencies in Wise. How long did that take you?

I compared the Baht to SE Asian currencies, plus China.  It only takes a few minutes.

[CallumWK]

4 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thanks for the thorough explanation—once again.

But if the Baht is only partially dependent on the USD, then why did we get a better exchange rate last May and June, when the USD was considerably lower than today?  Did Thailand suddenly stop importing oil, or perhaps a looser peg?  

 

I think you just answered your own question.

 

Because it is only partly dependent, so every USD move isn't fully translated in the THB exchange rate

[Isaan sailor]

2 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

I think you just answered your own question.

 

Because it is only partly dependent, so every USD move isn't fully translated in the THB exchange rate

Agreed, Baht is partially dependent on the Dollar.  When the Dollar rises—the Baht barely moves.  But when the Dollar falls—the Baht rises swiftly.

[CallumWK]

3 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Agreed, Baht is partially dependent on the Dollar.  When the Dollar rises—the Baht barely moves.  But when the Dollar falls—the Baht rises swiftly.

 

I think that only happens in your head, but I notice that you are mostly absent from the forum, until there is a thread about THB exchange rate.

Must be a very sensitive issue for you.

I transferred enough money to Thailand to last another 30 - 40 years, so exchange rate changes don't bother me at all anymore.

You should try it yourself, because exchange rates will change all the time, for the better or the worse, but it will relax your mind

[chiang mai]

13 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thanks for the thorough explanation—once again.

But if the Baht is only partially dependent on the USD, then why did we get a better exchange rate last May and June, when the USD was considerably lower than today?  Did Thailand suddenly stop importing oil, or perhaps a looser peg?  

There are a number of factors involved.

 

Under the IMFs Managed Floating Peg, BOT has the option to intervene or not, based on the country's economic need. But BOT also has to model the chances that any intervention will be successful or whether it will only be temporary and as a consequence, a waste of money in the longer term, in which case it may elect not to intervene and merely go with the flow.

 

You mention a better rate last May or June, against which currency, GBP or USD? The value of THB against USD is fairly straight forward, the above managed peg notwithstanding. But even against USD, it is entirely possible to have different exchange rates at different times, despite the USD value being the same, based on BOT's decision to intervene or not.

 

And of course, the value of THB against GBP uses three currencies to arrive at an effective exchange rate, this means USD may be stronger whilst GBP is weaker, the net of which could easily give a different rate, at a different time, despite USD value being lower/or stronger.

 

And finally of course is the strength or weakness of the Thai economy and the view markets have of it going forward. If that changes when all other factors are equal, the exchange rate will once again be different from what it was earlier.

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

8 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

There are a number of factors involved.

 

Under the IMFs Managed Floating Peg, BOT has the option to intervene or not, based on the country's economic need. But BOT also has to model the chances that any intervention will be successful or whether it will only be temporary and as a consequence, a waste of money in the longer term, in which case it may elect not to intervene and merely go with the flow.

 

You mention a better rate last May or June, against which currency, GBP or USD? The value of THB against USD is fairly straight forward, the above managed peg notwithstanding. But even against USD, it is entirely possible to have different exchange rates at different times, despite the USD value being the same, based on BOT's decision to intervene or not.

 

And of course, the value of THB against GBP uses three currencies to arrive at an effective exchange rate, this means USD may be stronger whilst GBP is weaker, the net of which could easily give a different rate, at a different time, despite USD value being lower/or stronger.

 

And finally of course is the strength or weakness of the Thai economy and the view markets have of it going forward. If that changes when all other factors are equal, the exchange rate will once again be different from what it was earlier.

 

 

Thank you once again for the best, most thorough and logical response.  I have searched the internet without finding any adequate explanations for this high Dollar/mid level Baht situation.

in my next life—when I retire, I shall chose a tropical country whose currency is hard-pegged to the Dollar.

[kevin612]

4 hours ago, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

Absolute bullship.

 

US dollar is.

In Southeast Asia, not the world. Come on dude, learn to read 

[KhunLA]

3 hours ago, Baht Simpson said:

When I came to live in Thailand the BHT-GBP rate was bouncing around 75. I'm glad I built my house at that rate.

Lucked out also, as 1st house was built when ฿40/$1, so only cost $20k USD.   Even better when I sold it, exchange rate was ฿29 ?/$1 and paid for in USA, US bank to US bank, so sold for $46k.   

 

That profit paid for the land (6 rai) & 2nd house.  That sold, land appreciated silly to silly high priced, and paid for house, solar, BEVs we have now  

 

TH has been very good to us.  THB has been stable now for past 15 ish year, @ ฿33+/- to $1 USD, with some nice highs the past couple years, 35-36-37 👍

 

Just hoping it stays where it is, till Trump is done.

[GreasyFingers]

8 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Of course I didn't,

Was  that was because you cannot, or it would not fit your agenda.

[Chivas]

3 hours ago, Isaan sailor said:

Thanks for the thorough explanation—once again.

But if the Baht is only partially dependent on the USD, then why did we get a better exchange rate last May and June, when the USD was considerably lower than today?  Did Thailand suddenly stop importing oil, or perhaps a looser peg?  

 

This subject really does infuriate me. Foreign Exchange is taught in Junior school in the main and if not in the first 2 years of high school

 

The Baht takes its fix off the USD second by second and is used in absolutely every foreign exchange transaction no matter what our base currency when the customer wants to obtain Thai baht.....So it sits on every double pairing no matter where we come from

 

So (Sterling/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht) equates to Sterling Baht

 

So (AUD/Dollar) x  (Dollar/Baht) equates to AUD/Baht

 

So again (CAD/Dollar)  x (Dollar/Baht) equates to the Canadians exchange rate and so on etc etc

 

Firstly what you see is that  the (Dollar/Baht) sits on every single tranaction (relating to the Baht in this instance)

 

Secondly the USD sits firmly within the opposite pairing on every single transaction as well

 

As such no matter where you come from what currency you hold you're only interested in two pairings

 

Now the important bit movement in either of those pairings above in brackets affects the bottom line when the numbers are crunched

 

So giving a wild example.......If Dollar/Baht weakened right out to 50 and Sterling/Dollar had a catastrophic time and went to parity the multiplication sum would (50) x (1)  so Sterling baht would now be 50 interbank

 

Only the USD (as the worlds reserve currency) has a direct exchange rate with every worldwide currency

 

So Brits (for example) are only concerned with Sterling the Dollar and the Baht when the numbers are crunched

 

Doesnt matter what the Yen's doing or the Ringitt or the Euro etc etc etc as they dont sit within the two pairings when the calculation is made

[CallumWK]

1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said:

Was  that was because you cannot, or it would not fit your agenda.

 

It was because I don't consider myself a currency trading expert, neither am a crybaby which goes lamenting when they get a few satang less for their USD.

Which one fits your profile?

[GreasyFingers]

4 hours ago, chiang mai said:

There are several methods of pegging to USD, hard pegged, soft pegged, managed float, crawling peg, basket peg and so on. NONE of those methods makes USD the currency of any of those countries. not even a little bit. So when you talk about the currencies of SE Asian countries, you have to describe the actual currency they use, not the one they wished they use.

So you have never paid for anything in Cambodia with USD?

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, GreasyFingers said:

So you have never paid for anything in Cambodia with USD?

USD is not the national currency, end of.

[GreasyFingers]

3 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

end of.

Your thinking.

[GreasyFingers]

8 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

few satang less for their USD.

I do not trade in USD but with the differences we are talking about a USD10000 transfer can mean THB20000 difference. A bit more than a few satang.