Double-Edged Sword of Global Warming: Saving Lives from Cold but at a Deadly Cost

[Social Media]

 

Global warming is set to reshape the mortality landscape in Europe, preventing millions of deaths from cold while simultaneously triggering catastrophic heat-related fatalities. New data from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) reveals that unmitigated global warming could prevent 3.4 million cold-related deaths in Europe by the end of the century. However, the cost would be devastating, with 5.8 million heat-related fatalities predicted, resulting in 2.3 million excess deaths overall.

 

A sharp contrast emerges between northern and southern Europe. Northern countries, such as Britain and Scandinavia, are projected to see a net reduction in mortality due to milder winters, while central and southern regions face a grim future. In Britain, warming could cumulatively save around 630,000 lives by 2099 by reducing cold-related deaths, while heat would claim approximately 360,000 lives, leaving a net benefit of 270,000 lives saved. Similarly, nations like Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Ireland are expected to experience more lives saved from reduced cold than lost to heat.

 

Conversely, southern European countries like Italy, Spain, and France will endure catastrophic increases in heat-related deaths, even when accounting for the reduction in cold-weather fatalities. For instance, Mediterranean cities such as Barcelona, Rome, and Madrid could suffer hundreds of thousands of additional deaths by 2099. Barcelona is projected to bear the worst toll, with 246,082 excess deaths, followed by Rome with around 147,000 and Madrid with nearly 130,000.

 

"Cold weather and hot weather kill tens of thousands of people across Europe every year," explained Professor Tim Osborn, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia. "The harm from climate change impacts people very unevenly, with far greater increases in temperature-related deaths predicted for southern Europe than for northern Europe, where milder winters may even reduce the number of deaths."

 

The populations most at risk remain consistent, as older adults and individuals with pre-existing health conditions are vulnerable to both extreme cold and heat. However, the cumulative impact of rising temperatures will disproportionately affect southern Europe, with populous cities along the Mediterranean facing the brunt of the crisis.

 

The figures, derived from temperature projections, population data, and mortality estimates, underline the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the LSHTM study, emphasized the critical need for swift action: "Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire."

 

Experts believe up to 70 percent of the predicted deaths could be prevented with rapid interventions, such as expanding green spaces, implementing early warning systems, and redesigning urban environments to cope with rising temperatures. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a lecturer at Imperial College London, highlighted the importance of these measures: "Previous estimates based on historical data have suggested that for every heat-related death, there are roughly 10 cold-related deaths."

 

While northern Europe may reap some benefits from milder winters, the overall outlook is one of grave concern. Without immediate and aggressive action, the cost of global warming will far outweigh any potential benefits, leaving millions to face its deadly consequences.

 

Based on a report by The Daily Telegraph 2025-01-29

 

 

[impulse]

One of the first things I learned out of college doing modeling on one of the fastest supercomputers of the day is that tweaking even minute variables can make a huge swing in the results.  I also learned that modelers don't get to keep their jobs if their results don't meet the funders' wishes, and that most jobs and promotions went not to the most accurate modelers, but the most convincing.

 

If cold deaths today outstrip heat deaths by 10:1, I don't think that warming things up a few degrees will result in more net deaths.  That doesn't pass the sniff test.

 

[Chomper Higgot]

42 minutes ago, impulse said:

One of the first things I learned out of college doing modeling on one of the fastest supercomputers of the day is that tweaking even minute variables can make a huge swing in the results.  I also learned that modelers don't get to keep their jobs if their results don't meet the funders' wishes, and that most jobs and promotions went not to the most accurate modelers, but the most convincing.

 

If cold deaths today outstrip heat deaths by 10:1, I don't think that warming things up a few degrees will result in more net deaths.  That doesn't pass the sniff test.

 

“ I also learned that modelers don't get to keep their jobs if their results don't meet the funders' wishes, and that most jobs and promotions went not to the most accurate modelers, but the most convincing.”

Are you aware of what you just told us?

[JonnyF]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

Global warming is set to reshape the mortality landscape in Europe, preventing millions of deaths from cold while simultaneously triggering catastrophic heat-related fatalities.

 

In other words, no matter the benefits (of which there are many) we will keep telling you to believe the Doomsday narrative so we can tax the life and liberty out of you in the name of saving you from yourselves. 

 

I've said before for every disadvantage there will be an advantage, and there is nothing we can do about it anyway. 

[impulse]

44 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Are you aware of what you just told us?

 

That the guy who pays the piper gets to call the tune?

 

[frank83628]

Earth is billions of years old, climate records 145yrs old.

 

[Yagoda]

Its better to be warm than cold.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Social Media said:

The figures, derived from temperature projections, population data, and mortality estimates, underline the urgency of addressing the climate crisis. Pierre Masselot, lead author of the LSHTM study, emphasized the critical need for swift action: "Our results stress the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is especially critical in the Mediterranean area where, if nothing is done, consequences could be dire."

LOL. The same old story ad infinitum. Of course they never say WHAT will magically change a natural climate cycle into something else, and, of course, they never say what that would be other than keeping temperature rise below some arbitrary figure, as if there were never any hurricanes or droughts in the 19th century.

 

As usual, IMO, it's always about making money out of a manufactured crisis.

 

BTW, did no one inform Obama that his beachfront property was going to be neck deep in water in a couple of years?

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

and there is nothing we can do about it anyway. 

Those words should be put on a big poster and put up in every public place.

 

I wonder if the current fad will be called Canutism in years to come.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Social Media said:

Without immediate and aggressive action, the cost of global warming will far outweigh any potential benefits, leaving millions to face its deadly consequences.

I'd love it if for once they actually said WHAT immediate and aggressive action IS. I have no clue as they never say what they mean.

IMO that's because they don't actually know, and just do what seems like it might work, but if it doesn't no one can say they told us porkies.

[impulse]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

4 hours ago, JonnyF said:

and there is nothing we can do about it anyway. 

Those words should be put on a big poster and put up in every public place.

 

I wonder if the current fad will be called Canutism in years to come.

 

I'd disagree with JonnyF, but only slightly.  What we can do is build robust economies to be ready for whatever happens.  Regardless of what it is, and whether it's man made or a natural cycle, it's going to cost a lot of money (and a lot of energy) to be ready.

 

 

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Social Media said:

Experts believe up to 70 percent of the predicted deaths could be prevented with rapid interventions, such as expanding green spaces, implementing early warning systems, and redesigning urban environments to cope with rising temperatures.

Lot of words that mean SFA without some explanation. Just what does redesigning urban environments mean in the real world?

I'd like to see them "redesign Bkk",

 

 

[roquefort]

6 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'd love it if for once they actually said WHAT immediate and aggressive action IS. I have no clue as they never say what they mean.

It means giving billions of $ to the climate-change industrial complex so that all those useless high-paid 'activists' employed by NGOs can keep their jobs for another few years.

[thaibeachlovers]

3 minutes ago, impulse said:

 

I'd disagree with JonnyF, but only slightly.  What we can do is build robust economies to be ready for whatever happens.  Regardless of what it is, and whether it's man made or a natural cycle, it's going to cost a lot of money (and a lot of energy) to be ready.

 

 

Every western country is immensely rich, but it's wealth held by the 1%. Let's see them divvy up the cash before they screw the peasants AGAIN.

 

As for building robust economies, I agree it's a desirable project, but it's never going to happen as long as the lazy and the uninvited keep taking the money and what's left is sent to one war or another.

 

To achieve prosperity for the citizens the 1% are going to have to get out of the way, and I give that zero % chance of happening.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, roquefort said:

It means giving billions of $ to the climate-change industrial complex so that all those useless high-paid 'activists' employed by NGOs can keep their jobs for another few years.

Anyone with a brain cell knows that, but I'd like them to say something that actually made sense for once. Even if they knew it wasn't going to happen, it'd be interesting to hear what they imagine would work. Just telling us we are doomed doesn't cut it.

[Lacessit]

I continue to marvel at the determination of some posters to bury their heads in the sand.

 

There are areas in many countries which will only be inhabited by people who are rich enough to self-insure, the average person won't be able to afford property insurance, or it simply won't be on offer.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, Lacessit said:

I continue to marvel at the determination of some posters to bury their heads in the sand.

 

There are areas in many countries which will only be inhabited by people who are rich enough to self-insure, the average person won't be able to afford property insurance, or it simply won't be on offer.

It's never been a good idea to build a house on a flood plain or a fire zone. If the insurance companies are finally waking up that is only to be expected.

 

If the world wasn't overpopulated it would never have become such a large problem. Stop over breeding is about the best way of solving the problem, IMO.

[Snackbar]

It’s called an elliptical orbit. 
 

$ making scam

[JonnyF]

24 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I'd love it if for once they actually said WHAT immediate and aggressive action IS.

 

Massive taxation and the introduction of new "green" technologies like EV's and heatpumps that will be forced upon us so they can sell us more stuff with whatever money we have left. Plus quite possibly heavy restrictions on personal freedoms (that no doubt can be avoided with "green donations" to allow the elites to stay in their 16 bathroom mansions, private jets and Range Rovers). 

 

It's a massive grift. They get to take more of our money while pretending to quite literally save the world. 😄

 

The irony is that it tends to be stupid and (relatively) poor people who believe/support it. Turkeys voting for Christmas. 

[Lacessit]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Anyone with a brain cell knows that, but I'd like them to say something that actually made sense for once. Even if they knew it wasn't going to happen, it'd be interesting to hear what they imagine would work. Just telling us we are doomed doesn't cut it.

Perhaps you should look at South Australia, 70% renewable energy now, projected to be 100% by 2030. Or the work done by CSIRO in making hydrogen a viable alternative to fossil fuels, using ammonia as the transport medium.

 

The fossil fuel industry is fighting a rear-guard action, aided and abetted by a guy in the White House who knows as much about climate science as I know about string theory. You are one of the guys who vocally supported him, so it's a self-inflicted wound.

 

But you still have the effrontery to ask for solutions, when you are part of the problem. Chutzpah.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Massive taxation and the introduction of new "green" technologies like EV's and heatpumps that will be forced upon us so they can sell us more stuff with whatever money we have left. Plus quite possibly heavy restrictions on personal freedoms (that no doubt can be avoided with "green donations" to allow the elites to stay in their 16 bathroom mansions, private jets and Range Rovers). 

 

It's a massive grift. They get to take more of our money while pretending to quite literally save the world. 😄

 

The irony is that it tends to be stupid and (relatively) poor people who believe/support it. Turkeys voting for Christmas. 

IMO Elon will put a huge space station in orbit where all the rich people can live till the poor people die out, or perhaps he'll build a big underground facility where all the rich can hibernate. For a name of the corporation I think Umbrella would be quite nifty.

[Lacessit]

9 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

It's never been a good idea to build a house on a flood plain or a fire zone. If the insurance companies are finally waking up that is only to be expected.

 

If the world wasn't overpopulated it would never have become such a large problem. Stop over breeding is about the best way of solving the problem, IMO.

There are quite a few nations where populations are collapsing, Russia and China are prime examples.

 

How do you stop breeding? Eliminate religions that encourage it.

[Lacessit]

3 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO Elon will put a huge space station in orbit where all the rich people can live till the poor people die out, or perhaps he'll build a big underground facility where all the rich can hibernate. For a name of the corporation I think Umbrella would be quite nifty.

Perhaps Zardoz was not as far-fetched as everybody thought.

[Lacessit]

36 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Every western country is immensely rich, but it's wealth held by the 1%. Let's see them divvy up the cash before they screw the peasants AGAIN.

 

As for building robust economies, I agree it's a desirable project, but it's never going to happen as long as the lazy and the uninvited keep taking the money and what's left is sent to one war or another.

 

To achieve prosperity for the citizens the 1% are going to have to get out of the way, and I give that zero % chance of happening.

Prosperity comes from making more money than you spend. IIRC Mr. Micawber was the first to enunciate the concept.

 

Every nation seems to be hooked on credit. Instant gratification with depreciating assets.The last time I was in debt was 50 years ago.

 

The average American has a debt of $104,000. To me, they are a nation of deadbeats.

[thaibeachlovers]

17 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

There are quite a few nations where populations are collapsing, Russia and China are prime examples.

 

How do you stop breeding? Eliminate religions that encourage it.

Have to grow a pair and admit that allowing people to have as many kids as they like is not an good idea would be a good start. Not paying people to have kids would be good too.

 

Send all the illegals back to whence they came would encourage them to stop overbreeding if they realise they can't send the excess to other countries that don't want them.

[thaibeachlovers]

19 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Perhaps Zardoz was not as far-fetched as everybody thought.

I hope Connery will be cloned to be the destroyer of the diamond. He was quite an impressive savage.

 

As for the real world, is providing all the weapons people need to have wars equivalent to the flying pyramid? I can't see much difference.

[thaibeachlovers]

13 minutes ago, Lacessit said:

Prosperity comes from making more money than you spend. IIRC Mr. Micawber was the first to enunciate the concept.

 

Every nation seems to be hooked on credit. Instant gratification with depreciating assets.The last time I was in debt was 50 years ago.

 

The average American has a debt of $104,000. To me, they are a nation of deadbeats.

Seems you and I are of similar minds. Since I cut up my credit card in 1983 I have not been in debt.

Debt only benefits the lender.

[blaze master]

15 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Seems you and I are of similar minds. Since I cut up my credit card in 1983 I have not been in debt.

Debt only benefits the lender.

 

Money is debt.

[thaibeachlovers]

Just now, blaze master said:

 

Money is debt.

Sure it is, but try flying to Thailand without it. LOL.

[blaze master]

2 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Sure it is, but try flying to Thailand without it. LOL.

 

I've flown many times to thailand with debt. Married after all.