Canada

[theshu25]

3 hours ago, Elvis Presley said:

Canada should be another US state.

 

That nut-job Trudeau has destroyed the country. 

 

Incorporate it into the USA and watch it prosper.

Wait and see the job the orange idiot is going to do on the USA.

[jaideedave]

4 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Where do you get your pearls of wisdom?  The USA is a net exporter of oil.  If you took Canadian oil completely off the table, we'd swap out a couple of valves and reroute a few tankers and the Canadian oil would soon be replaced with oil from elsewhere.  It would be painful for a few months...

 

Canada, OTOH, would be royally hosed.  Because they're extremely limited in their capacity to ship oil anywhere beside the USA.  I think somewhere around 75% of their oil would be locked in Canada because of the port limitations.  They need the US market more than Americans need Canada's oil.

 

So who's the crazy one?

 

Good point.The Cdn government are their own worst enemy. They quashed the Trans Canada pipeline from coast to coast. They won't allow any more refineries or NGV plants. Canada has huge O&G reserves and are landlocked and unable to ship it. All in the name of CO2 Carbon...the Carbon tax on everything is another handcuff.

They did it to themselves. Canada has so many natural resources the should be richer than Dubai.

[impulse]

16 minutes ago, illisdean said:

"You see, the U.S. does produce enough oil to meet its own needs, but it is the wrong type of oil."

"So, we are left in a place where the U.S., despite producing more crude than it needs, is dependent on imports."

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/america-produces-enough-oil-to-meet-its-needs-so-why-do-we-import-crude

"The United States became a total petroleum net exporter in 2020
In 2020, the United States became a net exporter of petroleum for the first time since at least 1949.1 In 2022, total petroleum exports were about 9.52 million barrels per day (b/d) and total petroleum imports were about 8.33 million b/d, making the United States an annual net total petroleum exporter for the third year in a row."

And, more than half of US oil imports come from Canada. US crude extractions costs are highest in the world, and US domestic sweet light crude is incompatible with current refinery technology. They need imports for their refineries and source more than half from Canada. Any interruptions in Canada sourced heavy crude could initiate huge price spikes in fuel costs at the pump. Despite producing more oil domestically US imports of Canadian petroleum have increased steadily since the early 80's. US reliance on it cannot be understated.

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

reference

 

That misses a few key points.  Heavy crude is available from all over the world, and it's a (relatively) fungible commodity.  If US refiners no longer bought our heavy crude from Canada, we'd buy it elsewhere.  (Venezuela comes to mind, but there are others) And that would free up Canadian heavy crude for other markets.  Except Canadians don't have enough shipping capacity to sell most of their crude anywhere but the USA.  Only about 25 percent of their production can move by tanker.

 

The refineries set up to process heavy crude could be adjusted to process sweet light crude, but that generally doesn't work in the other direction.  It's like buying an 18 wheeler to haul goods vs buying a pickup truck.  Anything a pickup can haul, so can an 18 wheeler.  Just not economically.  But you can't haul 20 tons in a pickup.  Still, refineries are optimized for a specific crude and there would be some pain on the US side during a transition to a different mix.  But Canada would be hooped with no outlet for 75% of their exports.  Not enough ports.

 

Natural gas is similar.  Canada exports natural gas by pipeline.  Look at a map and see where that leaves them.  They'd have to spend $$ tens (hundreds?) of billions to develop LNG export capacity.  (They haven't needed to...)  The US would have less gas to process and profit from the additional exports, but Canada is the more vulnerable party.

 

Don't get me wrong.  I'm against a trade war.  But the idea that it'll be the USA that suffers most is ridiculous if you just look at the trade balance of NAFTA.

 

 

[MadAtMatrix]

14 hours ago, Hummin said:

 

Jealousy and revenge

Trudeau already has a woman he meets in Toronto on weekends, and a boyfriend that has been holed up in Rideau Cottage. I know the cop who has to go do the security site survey at the hotel he meets her at. 

[Hummin]

5 minutes ago, MadAtMatrix said:

Trudeau already has a woman he meets in Toronto on weekends, and a boyfriend that has been holed up in Rideau Cottage. I know the cop who has to go do the security site survey at the hotel he meets her at. 

Sounds like an reliable source you got there.

[MadAtMatrix]

4 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Sounds like an reliable source you got there.

Yep. He is. 

[Hummin]

13 minutes ago, MadAtMatrix said:

Yep. He is. 

I heard his real father is Fidel Castro

[jas007]

57 minutes ago, b17 said:

So, using your logic, the USA doesn't need Canadian oil (despite the FACT that it comprises at least 25% of the total US supply) , energy (as many as eight US states depend on Canadian energy to keep the lights on), potash (necessary to fertilize crops, and Canada has the biggest supply), uranium (for those nukes you folks love so much) and other precious metals to thrive.

 

Perhaps you should learn a bit more about how much the USA depends on Canada before you display your obvious ignorance. Oh, and if you think it would be easy to retool to be able to process heavy crude, think again. That would take years, and the midterms would have already happened, with Trump losing power rapidly. Have a nice day, eh. 

Let's put it this way. If the trade war actually continues into the foreseeable future, the USA has the staying power, not Canada, 

[illisdean]

37 minutes ago, impulse said:

If US refiners no longer bought our heavy crude from Canada, we'd buy it elsewhere. 

Sure, they can buy it elsewhere, so why haven't they? Probably cost considerations. 

[bunnydrops]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

Seriously where do you guys get those nuggets of wisdom?  CNN or MSDNC? 

 

The US is a net exporter of oil and of natural gas.  We produce more than we consume.  Take Canadian and Mexican oil and gas off the table, and the big suffering would accrue to the Mexicans and the Canadians who would have to build $$ billions in infrastructure (and in Canada's case, decades of permitting) to send their petroleum products to other markets.

 

 

 

I won't argue with that but things aren't as simple as that. And yes, Canada and Mexico will suffer as they are going to do anyway. But the US can't refine most of its oil and the US doesn't have the infrastructure to supply all the US with natural gas.

 

"So again, the question: Why do we continue to import oil if we produce more than enough of our own?

Unlike most of the heavy sour crude from OPEC and Mexico, the bountiful U.S. shale gusher is primarily the lower density, "sweet" (low sulfur) grade. This light sweet variety is easier to refine and therefore commands a higher price. It also costs more to produce by fracking compared with traditional fields in Russia or Saudi, which essentially involve sticking a straw in the ground.

Yet American refineries, as we have seen, are tooled to process the dirtier stuff that trades at discounted prices. Of course, Gulf Coast refiners could reconfigure facilities to process lighter U.S. crude, but the downtime and capital costs would be substantial. It turns out that it is simply cheaper and more profitable to import heavy oil to refine into finished products and to export the light sweet crude at higher prices."

"This dichotomy also illustrates substantial misinformation regarding U.S. energy production. While chants of "drill baby drill" are popular at rallies, they obscure the current reality of the domestic oil industry. In fact, producers have already been drilling, baby, and are currently sitting on about 4,500 oil and gas wells with holes punched in the ground but not yet producing."

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2024/aug/17/why-we-import-oil-its-not-what-you-think/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2025/01/24/tariffs-on-canadian-gas-could-be-costly-and-disruptive/

[Hummin]

23 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Let's put it this way. If the trade war actually continues into the foreseeable future, the USA has the staying power, not Canada, 

Please, Usa just makes them even more despicable by doing so, and the more you who continuesly repeating what you said, the more the will and force to stand by until this maniac is out of office. 

 

Canada will have sympathy world wide and respect for doing so

[candide]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

Seriously where do you guys get those nuggets of wisdom?  CNN or MSDNC? 

 

The US is a net exporter of oil and of natural gas.  We produce more than we consume.  Take Canadian and Mexican oil and gas off the table, and the big suffering would accrue to the Mexicans and the Canadians who would have to build $$ billions in infrastructure (and in Canada's case, decades of permitting) to send their petroleum products to other markets.

 

 

 

Easy. Just make a deal with Chinese firms to build new ports! 😆

[candide]

33 minutes ago, jas007 said:

Let's put it this way. If the trade war actually continues into the foreseeable future, the USA has the staying power, not Canada, 

The problem is that Trump is unable to define and follow smart tactics, because he's too impulsive.

 

Canada, Mexico and China represent 40% of U.S. exports, add European countries and it's more than 60%.

 

He could have taken them one after the other, with a reasonable chance to get some benefits from it. But he's too stupid. It's not a trade war with only Canada, it's a trade war with more than 60% of U.S. exports.

[Hanaguma]

This is all about Trudeau trying to save the Liberal Party in the next election. It gives him a chance to try and look stunning and brave in the face of American aggression. And also paves the way for a WEF clone like Carney to take over.  He has had months to make good with the US and chose not to. Had nearly a decade to make Canada strong and was an utter disaster. So his performance now is a final F U to the citizens of the Great White North.

[impulse]

50 minutes ago, bunnydrops said:

I won't argue with that but things aren't as simple as that. And yes, Canada and Mexico will suffer as they are going to do anyway. But the US can't refine most of its oil and the US doesn't have the infrastructure to supply all the US with natural gas.

 

"So again, the question: Why do we continue to import oil if we produce more than enough of our own?

Unlike most of the heavy sour crude from OPEC and Mexico, the bountiful U.S. shale gusher is primarily the lower density, "sweet" (low sulfur) grade. This light sweet variety is easier to refine and therefore commands a higher price. It also costs more to produce by fracking compared with traditional fields in Russia or Saudi, which essentially involve sticking a straw in the ground.

Yet American refineries, as we have seen, are tooled to process the dirtier stuff that trades at discounted prices. Of course, Gulf Coast refiners could reconfigure facilities to process lighter U.S. crude, but the downtime and capital costs would be substantial. It turns out that it is simply cheaper and more profitable to import heavy oil to refine into finished products and to export the light sweet crude at higher prices."

"This dichotomy also illustrates substantial misinformation regarding U.S. energy production. While chants of "drill baby drill" are popular at rallies, they obscure the current reality of the domestic oil industry. In fact, producers have already been drilling, baby, and are currently sitting on about 4,500 oil and gas wells with holes punched in the ground but not yet producing."

https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/2024/aug/17/why-we-import-oil-its-not-what-you-think/

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2025/01/24/tariffs-on-canadian-gas-could-be-costly-and-disruptive/

 

I could write a book on everything that the media gets wrong about the oil and gas industry, having worked in the biz as an engineer for around 40 years.  Sometimes, just out of ignorance.  Sometimes, it's more deliberate.

 

Edit:  And in fairness, a lot of it is trying to explain complicated technical topics to a non-technical audience.

 

[candide]

6 hours ago, impulse said:

 

The EU would swamp Greenland's 57,000 citizens with so many boat people that they'd be voting in Sharia law in just a few years.

 

They are already associated with the EU and have EU passports.

[Jim Blue]

2 hours ago, gargamon said:

Thanks Donald. Expect a lot of this in the future.

 

Well it depends if you were on the inside and knew you would have gone short and would be laughing all the way  to   ....not that I'm implying any

 

thing ...

[gamb00ler]

7 hours ago, jas007 said:

The USA needs nothing from Canada

Quite a few people in the USA will soon understand how little you know....

 

In 2023, Ontario also directly supplied electricity to 1.5 million U.S. homes and is a major exporter of power to Michigan, Minnesota and New York. Midwestern states in particular could face serious risks if Trump's plan for tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China goes into effect.

[jas007]

32 minutes ago, Jim Blue said:

Well it depends if you were on the inside and knew you would have gone short and would be laughing all the way  to   ....not that I'm implying any

 

thing ...

Today will probably be a good day to go shopping for some of your favorite stocks.  The markets always overreact and today will be no exception.  And even if the downturn lasts a while, so what?  

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, impulse said:

 

Where do you get your pearls of wisdom?  The USA is a net exporter of oil.  If you took Canadian oil completely off the table, we'd swap out a couple of valves and reroute a few tankers and the Canadian oil would soon be replaced with oil from elsewhere.  It would be painful for a few months...

 

Canada, OTOH, would be royally hosed.  Because they're extremely limited in their capacity to ship oil anywhere beside the USA.  I think somewhere around 75% of their oil would be locked in Canada because of the port limitations.  They need the US market more than Americans need Canada's oil.

 

So who's the crazy one?

 

You sure about that?

On May 1, 2024, the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion officially begun operations after 12 years and C$34 billion in costs. The project nearly tripled oil pipeline capacity from Alberta to Canada's Pacific coast to 890,000 barrels per day, enabling better access to global markets and boosting crude prices.

It's a good thing for the Canadians that Trump didn't get his way and the the second Keystone pipeline was never laid down. .They're now sending their oil to the West Coast. Canadians should be feeling very grateful to Joe Biden and environmentalists. I remember when right wingers were screaming bloody murder about how American jobs were being lost. Now, apparently, according to you, it's no big deal.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, impulse said:

 

I could write a book on everything that the media gets wrong about the oil and gas industry, having worked in the biz as an engineer for around 40 years.  Sometimes, just out of ignorance.  Sometimes, it's more deliberate.

 

Edit:  And in fairness, a lot of it is trying to explain complicated technical topics to a non-technical audience.

 

And then there are things that Trump gets wrong about the oil industry

"Several U.S. oil and gas companies have warned that they will not be looking to increase production unless prices increase significantly. Before his inauguration, President Donald Trump stated he wanted to “Drill, Baby, Drill”, when it came to oil and gas. However, oil majors are concerned that increasing oil and gas output even further could create a glut and drive prices down, something they want to avoid."

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Trump-Really-Boost-US-Oil-Production.html

 

EIA forecasts lower crude oil prices in 2025, 2026
Jan. 15, 2025
Oil prices are expected to face downward pressures over the next 2 years due to global oil production outpacing demand, according to a report by the US Energy Information Administration.
https://www.ogj.com/general-interest/economics-markets/article/55260900/eia-forecasts-lower-crude-oil-prices-in-2025-2026

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

This is all about Trudeau trying to save the Liberal Party in the next election. It gives him a chance to try and look stunning and brave in the face of American aggression. And also paves the way for a WEF clone like Carney to take over.  He has had months to make good with the US and chose not to. Had nearly a decade to make Canada strong and was an utter disaster. So his performance now is a final F U to the citizens of the Great White North.

Sure. It's Trudeau giving a F U to Canadian citizens and not the ignoramus to the south. It was  Trudeau who approved the Trans Canada pipeline. You know, the one that doesn't cross into the USA.

[impulse]

36 minutes ago, placeholder said:

You sure about that?

On May 1, 2024, the long-delayed Trans Mountain pipeline expansion officially begun operations after 12 years and C$34 billion in costs. The project nearly tripled oil pipeline capacity from Alberta to Canada's Pacific coast to 890,000 barrels per day, enabling better access to global markets and boosting crude prices.

 

It's a good thing for the Canadians that Trump didn't get his way and the the second Keystone pipeline was never laid down. .They're now sending their oil to the West Coast. Canadians should be feeling very grateful to Joe Biden and environmentalists. I remember when right wingers were screaming bloody murder about how American jobs were being lost. Now, apparently, according to you, it's no big deal.

 

Yeah.  Pretty sure.   I did the math   Canada produces about 4.6 million barrels a day, and they just increased their west coast export capacity to 890K BOPD.

 

They're hosed if US refineries decide to buy their heavy crude elsewhere.  At least until they invest hundreds of $$ billions and wait decades to permit new pipelines to increase maritime export capacity.  They have no way to sell it anywhere else.  Because they can only refine 1.7 million BOPD in Canada.  

 

What's 4.6 MBOPD - 0.89 MBOPD - 1.7 MBOPD?  Haw many days can they go on and still have a place to store it?

 

TCI Energy Brief: Early TMX Pipeline Expansion Data Reveals China’s Emerging Role as a Significant Buyer of Canadian Crude, Offering Some Diversification From the U.S. Market | The China Institute

 

Canada's crude oil has an increasingly significant role in U.S. refineries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

[bunnydrops]

1 hour ago, impulse said:

 

Yeah.  Pretty sure.   I did the math   Canada produces about 4.6 million barrels a day, and they just increased their west coast export capacity to 890K BOPD.

 

They're hosed if US refineries decide to buy their heavy crude elsewhere.  At least until they invest hundreds of $$ billions and wait decades to permit new pipelines to increase maritime export capacity.  They have no way to sell it anywhere else.  Because they can only refine 1.7 million BOPD in Canada.  

 

What's 4.6 MBOPD - 0.89 MBOPD - 1.7 MBOPD?  Haw many days can they go on and still have a place to store it?

 

TCI Energy Brief: Early TMX Pipeline Expansion Data Reveals China’s Emerging Role as a Significant Buyer of Canadian Crude, Offering Some Diversification From the U.S. Market | The China Institute

 

Canada's crude oil has an increasingly significant role in U.S. refineries - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Yes and the 16 padd2 refineries depend almost 100% on Canadian oil and no real way to supply them from any where else. Maybe one of the reasons the US still imports 10% of its oil.

[bunnydrops]

There are many ways this will play out. Canada could double the, what was it, 150 lbs of fentanyl that was caught crossing the border last year and Trump could claim a win.

[DonniePeverley]

Seeing a few Canadian politicians saying the UK should stand with them

 

Don't recall Canada coming to help the UK when we went through the self imposed barbarity that was Brexit. 

[Hanaguma]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Sure. It's Trudeau giving a F U to Canadian citizens and not the ignoramus to the south. It was  Trudeau who approved the Trans Canada pipeline. You know, the one that doesn't cross into the USA.

Yes, it is. He has prorogued Parliament to prevent the opposition parties from having a voice, or voting him out of office. 

 

And only one new refinery built in the last 40 years. We refine less than a third of the oil we produce.

[blaze master]

10 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Bull.

His followers don't want to annex Canada.

His followers didn't even want to tariff Canada.

Yes Mexico has been demonized but not Canada.

Face reality. We're dealing with an unhinged PSYCHOPATH in the most powerful role in the world.

 

There's really only 1 unhinged person around here.

[John Drake]

20 hours ago, DonniePeverley said:

Someone explain this to me ....

 

So the American company pay the tarriffs, not Canada. Why Canada so bothered then?

 

 

 

Confusing. So many people on this forum assured me that tariffs would be bad for Americans and make Americans suffer. But Americans aren't angry. Canadians are, and nobody in America is raising prices on them. They just want to hate the US.

[Jingthing]

34 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Confusing. So many people on this forum assured me that tariffs would be bad for Americans and make Americans suffer. But Americans aren't angry. Canadians are, and nobody in America is raising prices on them. They just want to hate the US.

Fiddling while stock markets and retirement accounts crash. 

The U.S. has more power over Canada than Canada has over the U.S. but the price rises to U.S. consumers and industries will be hitting and it will mean job losses and factory shut downs in the U.S. The announcement was yesterday for Chrissakes. Canadians are also upset because Trump has threatened to annex them. Canadian PM doesn't want to annex the U.S.  Trump is acting like Putin and the world has noticed.