Is Trump driving the US into a recession? – in charts

[candide]

1 hour ago, frank83628 said:

The  Biden years... yeah right, I only ever comment here against you and your DTDS crew members daily  screetching meltdowns, I've seen the lets trump since 2016, not started a thread about it here to this day...screetchy old age pensioners acting like children

By the number of posts in which you mention <removed>, it seems you have a <removed> derangement syndrome! 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

It's not just about a tariffs war bringing to an end the free-market world of the last 40 years which, on the whole, made the whole world richer.

 

What we are beginning to see amongst Usofa's traditionally closest friends & allies - the Europeans, Oz, Japan ... - is a process just getting under way of disengaging from doing business with Usofa in important areas such as defence & security, on the basis that you can't trust the Yanks any more. Macron, for instance, is busy persuading the Europeans not to buy the F35 (which means switching to French or Swedish alternatives). The boycotting of Tesla products is another obvious example, with public outbreaks of contempt and anti-Usofanism.

 

This will continue gradually gathering speed. Short of major backtracking by Trump (not in his genes, I think), the long-term damage to the Usofan economy will be great indeed.

It's going to be bad for everyone. Depending on how many major nations Trump goes after it could be worse for the USA than them. At least in aggregate. But there is the issue of economic gravity to consider. The closer nations are the more they tend to trade with each other.

[candide]

17 minutes ago, dutch boy said:

Actually, it would be a good thing for the U.S. to enter a recession. This would finally break the rampant inflation in the United States. The Fed under Biden, was pressured by Biden to not raise interest rates too high as to cause a recession because Biden cared more about his socialist policies than about the America citizens. This unfortunately caused massive inflation in the U.S. But Trump is looking to the future of the U.S. and realizes that in the short run, government spending must come down. Government debt and the huge debt bomb will only be solved by a reduction in spending both by the government and by the private sector. 

Lol! A recession means less taxes collected, so leads to more debt.

 

As to the "future": for U.S. politicians it's the midterm elections in 18 months! 

[MalcolmB]

5 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

all countries around the world imposing tariffs on US goods to protect and help their own economy

No they don’t.

[SunnyinBangrak]

40 minutes ago, MalcolmB said:

No they don’t.

555. Ok then, which country in the world imposes zero import tariffs on any goods. This will be fun!

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, candide said:

By the number of posts in which you mention <removed>, it seems you have a <removed> derangement syndrome! 

The fact that the 'acronym' is deleted automatically from this forum shows just how far the DTDS runs deep, even the supposedly 'neutral' admins are frothy screaming anti trumpers, 

Check the  count to positive- negative threads about trump...guaranteed the screetchy hysterical threads win 10 fold!

I see you as a 70+ yrs old man, wasting your last days bickering about politics when you should be seeing the sights... am I wrong?

 

[candide]

17 minutes ago, frank83628 said:

The fact that the 'acronym' is deleted automatically from this forum shows just how far the DTDS runs deep, even with supposedly 'neutral' admins are frothy screaming anti trumpers, 

Check the  count to positive- negative threads about trump...guaranteed the screetchy hysterical threads win 10 fold!

I see you as a 70+ yrs old man, wasting your last days bickering about politics when you should be seeing the sights... am I wrong?

 

My life is not a forum subject.

However, Trump is the subject of this thread...

[frank83628]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

My life is not a forum subject.

However, Trump is the subject of this thread...

bickering about politics, what a way to spend those last days, sad man

* old

[vangrop]

Tarifs in Thailand on foreign goods aim to tax the farangs. The Thai people are not interessed in wine or cheese or fine charcuterie. The Thais buy mainly Japanees cars produced in Thailand.  So it is another way to empty as more as possible the tourists pockets.

[placeholder]

23 minutes ago, vangrop said:

Tarifs in Thailand on foreign goods aim to tax the farangs. The Thai people are not interessed in wine or cheese or fine charcuterie. The Thais buy mainly Japanees cars produced in Thailand.  So it is another way to empty as more as possible the tourists pockets.

You believe that the tariffs are mostly targeted at foreign delicacies? It is to laugh.

[MalcolmB]

1 hour ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

555. Ok then, which country in the world imposes zero import tariffs on any goods. This will be fun!

Australia, Bahrain etc has no tariffs on goods from the USA. 
It is amazing that Trumpers take Trumps words as the truth. He has been fact checked to be a liar thousands of times.

 

Trump and dumber.

[MalcolmB]

28 minutes ago, vangrop said:

Tarifs in Thailand on foreign goods aim to tax the farangs. The Thai people are not interessed in wine or cheese or fine charcuterie. The Thais buy mainly Japanees cars produced in Thailand.  So it is another way to empty as more as possible the tourists pockets.

Another one.

[placeholder]

7 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I still didn't hear an adequate explanation for all countries around the world imposing tariffs on US goods to protect and help their own economy. While when Trump imposes tariffs on other countries it's s disaster for the US economy.

They can't both be true.

First off, where did you get the idea that it's only the US that they're imposing tariffs on? Or do you think that there is some special higher tariff imposed on U.S. goods?

But what's most important is that tariffs nowadays are mostly very low. Here's a link that will show you the weighted mean of tariffs in most countries of the world, At least as it stood in 2021. In the EU it's 1.39%  In the UK it's .72%. In the USA it's 1.47%. In Canada 2.35%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate

[Patong2021]

Trump's real estate is heavily leveraged with multiple loans. The debt was  estimated to be $1.5 billion in 2024. Trump's  election commission filings in 2024 were less specific because he only has to declare a range.

https://www.citizensforethics.org/reports-investigations/crew-investigations/trump-reported-700-million-of-business-income-hundreds-of-millions-in-debt-on-latest-financial-disclosure/

 

It is said that a recession now would  benefit large debtors like Trump, because  interest rates are  expected to be forced down. As interest rates decrease, the cost of servicing a large debt decreases.

 

Why else would Trump be demanding lower interest rates?

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-says-he-will-demand-lower-interest-rates-immediately-2025-01-23/

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, where did you get the idea that it's only the US that they're imposing tariffs on? Or do you think that there is some special higher tariff imposed on U.S. goods?

But what's most important is that tariffs nowadays are mostly very low. Here's a link that will show you the weighted mean of tariffs in most countries of the world, At least as it stood in 2021. In the EU it's 1.39%  In the UK it's .72%. In the USA it's 1.47%. In Canada 2.35%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate

Actually, i found more up to date information. It turns out that 2021 was an anomaly for Canada. Generally much lower.

Probably due to Covid. In 2020 the weighted mean was 1.49% and in 2022 1.37%

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html#:~:text=Tariff rate%2C applied%2C weighted mean%2C all products (%) in,compiled from officially recognized sources.

US values didn't fluctuate much

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

Here's a link for the EU

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

and this is for Britain:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

 

In no case is it anything like the tariffs Trump has imposed so far.

 

[SunnyinBangrak]

8 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Actually, i found more up to date information. It turns out that 2021 was an anomaly for Canada. Generally much lower.

Probably due to Covid. In 2020 the weighted mean was 1.49% and in 2022 1.37%

https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html#:~:text=Tariff rate%2C applied%2C weighted mean%2C all products (%) in,compiled from officially recognized sources.

US values didn't fluctuate much

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

Here's a link for the EU

https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

and this is for Britain:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/tariff-rate-applied-weighted-mean-all-products-percent-wb-data.html

 

In no case is it anything like the tariffs Trump has imposed so far.

 

Extremely misleading. Intentionally so I suspect. There is a very low threshold under which yes tiny tariffs apply. Any large scale export of US dairy to Canada is impossible as once the extremely low permitted volume is exceeded the tariffs ratchet up to over 200% which stops bulk exports stone dead in their tracks.

Surely going by the liberal herds narrative that would destroy Canada's dairy business. Aha, nope. It actually saves it. 

You might want to take some time to think this matter through yourself. We all know in a few weeks time there will be the old chestnut "i never said tariffs were bad for the US" like "i never said Hunters laptop was Russian disinfo" after multiple thousands of posts doing just that.😂

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Extremely misleading. Intentionally so I suspect. There is a very low threshold under which yes tiny tariffs apply. Any large scale export of US dairy to Canada is impossible as once the extremely low permitted volume is exceeded the tariffs ratchet up to over 200% which stops bulk exports stone dead in their tracks.

Surely going by the liberal herds narrative that would destroy Canada's dairy business. Aha, nope. It actually saves it. 

You might want to take some time to think this matter through yourself. We all know in a few weeks time there will be the old chestnut "i never said tariffs were bad for the US" like "i never said Hunters laptop was Russian disinfo" after multiple thousands of posts doing just that.😂

If it's cherrypicking you want to do, then how about the much larger market for pickup trucks. US has imposed a 25% tariff for them. Canadian Dairy Market size was 15 billion USD. The US pickup truck market 75 billion USD. Although it's currently true that pickup trucks manufactured in North America aren't subject to tariffs. Trump seems set on changing that, too.

[kwonitoy]

8 hours ago, frank83628 said:

No, the left wing activist media just report every single thing in negative manner. Its called Donald trump derangement syndrome

 

[placeholder]

11 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Extremely misleading. Intentionally so I suspect. There is a very low threshold under which yes tiny tariffs apply. Any large scale export of US dairy to Canada is impossible as once the extremely low permitted volume is exceeded the tariffs ratchet up to over 200% which stops bulk exports stone dead in their tracks.

Surely going by the liberal herds narrative that would destroy Canada's dairy business. Aha, nope. It actually saves it. 

You might want to take some time to think this matter through yourself. We all know in a few weeks time there will be the old chestnut "i never said tariffs were bad for the US" like "i never said Hunters laptop was Russian disinfo" after multiple thousands of posts doing just that.😂

Hey, I got some exciting news for you. Your dairy diatribe is, in effect, baseless:

"President Donald Trump correctly noted Friday, as he has before, that Canada has tariffs above 200% on dairy products imported from the US. But Trump again failed to mention a critical fact.

Those high tariffs kick in only after the US has hit a certain Trump-negotiated quantity of tariff-free dairy sales to Canada each year – and as the US dairy industry acknowledges, the US is not hitting its allowed zero-tariff maximum in any category of dairy product.

In many categories, notably including milk, the US is not even at half of the zero-tariff maximum."

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/10/politics/trump-canada-dairy-tariffs-fact-check/index.html

 

But you can be sure that the 25% tariffs on pickup trucks made outside the USA is real. Although I think South Korea negotiated that downwards.

[Patong2021]

14 minutes ago, placeholder said:

First off, where did you get the idea that it's only the US that they're imposing tariffs on? Or do you think that there is some special higher tariff imposed on U.S. goods?

But what's most important is that tariffs nowadays are mostly very low. Here's a link that will show you the weighted mean of tariffs in most countries of the world, At least as it stood in 2021. In the EU it's 1.39%  In the UK it's .72%. In the USA it's 1.47%. In Canada 2.35%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tariff_rate

 

Make it simpler to understand the lies that Trump has spun.

Under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), 98%  of goods entering Canada from the U.S. have no tariffs. 

Of the goods subject to tariff, some have an allowance before the tariff  applies. For example, on dairy products, no  200% tariff has been collected on US dairy products , despite Trump saying there is a tariff. This is because the US  has exported well below its allowance. The dairy deal the USA has with Canada was a mirror of the existing US  dairy tariff format and was negotiated by  Trump's administration. The USMCA tariff list is here 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/CA_Tariff_Schedule_Appendix_1.pdf

 

Trump also misrepresents GST/VAT as a tax on US products. The GST/VAT is a sales tax . It speaks to the lack of education of Americans that Trump's claims are so easily accepted.

[save the frogs]

depends where you get your information / what you believe / how you interpret things.

 

according to this, trump will wipe out the national debt

 

 

[placeholder]

3 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 

Make it simpler to understand the lies that Trump has spun.

Under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), 98%  of goods entering Canada from the U.S. have no tariffs. 

Of the goods subject to tariff, some have an allowance before the tariff  applies. For example, on dairy products, no  200% tariff has been collected on US dairy products , despite Trump saying there is a tariff. This is because the US  has exported well below its allowance. The dairy deal the USA has with Canada was a mirror of the existing US  dairy tariff format and was negotiated by  Trump's administration. The USMCA tariff list is here 

https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/CA_Tariff_Schedule_Appendix_1.pdf

 

Trump also misrepresents GST/VAT as a tax on US products. The GST/VAT is a sales tax . It speaks to the lack of education of Americans that Trump's claims are so easily accepted.

Yes I should have caught that. The figures I cited included tariffs from everwhere. Given whatever the successor to NAFTA is called, of course the weighed mean tariff for the USA will be lower.

[Gottfrid]

7 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Trump on the brain 

OK, I will fix this for you: Trump on the have no brain

If it is like you say, even worse

[Walker88]

9 hours ago, frank83628 said:

No, the left wing activist media just report every single thing in negative manner. Its called Donald trump derangement syndrome

No, it's called FACTS, not some silly made up affliction.

 

You should learn the difference between reality and your fantasy.

[LiamB80]

I expected a slump in the economy when i cast my vote for President Trump and also a weaker $ which is what Trump wants. Strong $ not good for investment into the USA. Biden’s administration had inflated phony numbers for years while propping up the economy with govt jobs and I knew that would come due. It will get worse before it gets better. Trump has a monumental task to turn the USA around and he is up for the job i have no doubt but it won’t happen overnight. Democrats and a judicial coup trying to stop him at every turn but their attempts will be futile. Have a little faith in America. We didn’t get to the top by accident, and I don’t mean that as a knock on any other country so spare me your hurty feelings.

[Middle Aged Grouch]

Trump is not always doing right, but definately he is far less a threat to prosperity then the fellow before him in office.

[candide]

14 hours ago, frank83628 said:

bickering about politics, what a way to spend those last days, sad man

* old

Projecting much..... 🤣

[Patong2021]

11 hours ago, Middle Aged Grouch said:

Trump is not always doing right, but definately he is far less a threat to prosperity then the fellow before him in office.

 

You are about to be proven wrong,

[nauseus]

12 hours ago, save the frogs said:

depends where you get your information / what you believe / how you interpret things.

 

according to this, trump will wipe out the national debt

 

 

 

Big job. At least somebody is trying to make a start. We'll see.

[placeholder]

Interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about what got to be called the Chicken Tax. Essentially, in retaliation for Germany imposing a high tariff on American chickens, Lyndon Johnson imposed a 25% tariff on pickup trucks. The result was that foreign automakers abandoned the market and left the American automakers the opportunity to enjoy big profits. But what the article also noted is that because pickup trucks made for easy pickings, automakers pretty much abandoned the small car market to asian companies. After all, why struggle to make a profit in a highly competitive sector?

 

The 1960s ‘Chicken Tax’ Shows the Lasting Impact of Tariffs
Imported pickups have long incurred a 25% tariff, keeping production within North America but raising little revenue for Washington

"While that refuge was helpful at first, it meant Detroit avoided the tough task of matching the competitiveness of Asian manufacturers in smaller vehicles, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research and a former autos analyst."

https://archive.ph/WD5sP