JPMorgan becomes first Wall Street bank to forecast US recession following Trump's tariffs

[BLMFem]

JPMorgan becomes the first Wall Street bank to forecast a US recession following Trump's tariffs

 

JPMorgan believes the US economy will enter a recession in the back half of 2025 as the impact of President Trump tariffs takes hold in the economy.

The firm's chief US economist Michael Feroli sees a two-quarter recession occurring in the back half of 2025 as GDP contracts by 1% in the third quarter of the year and by 0.5% in the fourth quarter. For the full-year 2025, Feroli's team projects GDP will fall by 0.3%.

[PomPolo]

Yep it is American citizens that are going to foot the bill for this everything is going to be a lot more expensive to buy, that's the reason there was a trade deficit in the first place you go to the right places to buy the right things at the right price. and sell them to your citizens at the right price to avoid inflation and recessions, good luck America

[PomPolo]

I was on Penguin Social earlier and apparently the head penguin is not too worried about things, the head penguin is not quite sure what they export from Heard and McDonald Islands to get a 10% tariff but I am lead to believe there have been large protests on the island the last couple of days, even the seals are coming together with them as one to fight these new tariffs.
The only questions I can see them asking on Penguin Social is who is Donald Trump? and Where is America? and ..... "I need fish"

[connda]

A major recession would be healthy.

[BLMFem]

2 minutes ago, connda said:

A major recession would be healthy.

Yes, especially for American consumers. Very healthy to not have to worry about whether to buy product A or product B because you can't afford any of them anymore.

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, connda said:

A major recession would be healthy.

The jobless could go to the gym instead?

[dinsdale]

I've previously stated the markets will go bear. That's what they're doing. Investors worrying about their profits from cheap labor being eroded. The markets will level out and come back up. Let's see what they look like in a month or two. This is the Dow Jones over the last five years.

[KhunLA]

4 hours ago, dinsdale said:

I've previously stated the markets will go bear. That's what they're doing. Investors worrying about their profits from cheap labor being eroded. The markets will level out and come back up. Let's see what they look like in a month or two. This is the Dow Jones over the last five years.

At least use S&P 500, as the Dow Jones isn't a marker for anything.  Neither is S&P  ... IMHO

 

So the elite are concerned people won't continue to be force to work low paying jobs, to the elites benefit.

 

... GOT IT

 

Why cherry pick the last 5 yrs .... 

 

They're called corrections, and the market is way overdue.

 

 

Or maybe just a repeat of Pres. Trump 1st administration,  When it went up about 50%

 

 

Biden had a high of about 44k, about 50% also, though didn't help the little folks with high inflation, silly housing prices & RE Taxes now.  

 

Like I stated, the market means nothing to the regular folks.

 

During Pres Trump 1, S&P up over 65%.  If using the markets as a gauge for his economic policies ... well, nuff said.

 

 

 

[still kicking]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

The jobless could go to the gym instead?

Are they free in the US?

[Patong2021]

5 hours ago, connda said:

A major recession would be healthy.

 

Tell that to the people who will lose their  jobs, homes and lives.

[Jingthing]

Recession? Little doubt.

The really serious question is whether Donald Trump is leading us into a depression. 

[SunnyinBangrak]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

The jobless could go to the gym instead?

Or back home, to their countries.

[placeholder]

7 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Or back home, to their countries.

Immigrants legally authorized to work in the USA make up about 13% of the workforce. Those not authorized make up about 5%. Do you think roughly four jobless Americans for everyone 1 jobless immigrant Iis worth it? Or is this going to be a magical recession where only non-citizens lose their jobs?

[BLMFem]

13 hours ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

Or back home, to their countries.

....says an expat.

As I've stated before, there really seems to be  a strict requirement among the MAGA cult that you leave all ability to detect hypocrisy in one self by the entrance before jumping into the rabbit hole.

[sammieuk1]

19 hours ago, PomPolo said:

I was on Penguin Social earlier and apparently the head penguin is not too worried about things, the head penguin is not quite sure what they export from Heard and McDonald Islands to get a 10% tariff but I am lead to believe there have been large protests on the island the last couple of days, even the seals are coming together with them as one to fight these new tariffs.
The only questions I can see them asking on Penguin Social is who is Donald Trump? and Where is America? and ..... "I need fish"

King  Kin Penguin🤔

 

[Lacessit]

What amazes me is the number of MAGA faithful who still think Trump is making the right moves, even when they are losing jobs or seeing their living costs increase. They live in a different reality.

[Walker88]

Goodness, MAGAs are such a kick, changing their tune faster than a tribute band doing a Beatles greatest hits routine.

 

Now a market crash is either "healthy" or "overdue", and even a Recession is "good".

 

Apparently higher prices, which will be part cause of the Recession/Depression on our doorstep, are also "healthy"....UNLESS IT'S EGGS!!!!!

 

There are even folks claiming they predicted this crash, when back in November they saw both the market and economy on some permanent rise.

 

I do recall at least one AN member who back in November immediately predicted a 20% market fall under 47....LOL

 

NASDAQ has already delivered on that.

 

My major concern now is that POTUS will sick his AG on Jamie Dimon, as it was under Dimon's leadership that some analyst dared to say POTUS is not the messiah, and that it's now a 60% chance of Recession (when the analyst probably really wanted to write 100%).

 

POTUS has already stated, in his speech a few Friday's ago at the DoJ, that media who criticize him must be doing something illegal, and he advised the DoJ prosecutors to investigate it, so stating that a Recession is coming could well be illegal in POTUS' fascist state.  Yes, cannot have free speech and that "leftist" 1st Amendment of the US Constitution, an amendment hated as much as the 22nd Amendment, which POTUS has already said "I have ways around that".

[Walker88]

14 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Recession? Little doubt.

The really serious question is whether Donald Trump is leading us into a depression. 

There is no "official" definition of a Depression, but generally an economic decline is called a Depression if GDP falls by 10% or if a Recession last for two years.

 

I think POTUS can meet the definition on both counts. Certainly, if anybody can do it, it's him...or...

 

"Some say nobody can do a Depression like I can....in fact, mine will be the Greatest Depression ever. Nobody will have ever seen anything like it. Unbelievable"

[LosLobo]

Why we have the Dark Age of Trump, the end game and the reason.
 

Trump’s childhood wasn’t a warm and fuzzy affair. His parents were mostly absent—his mother sidelined by illness, his father buried in work. Left to act out, naughty boy Donald was eventually packed off to military school, a disciplinary exile disguised as character-building.
 

Fred Trump Sr. wasn’t big on nuance. He drilled into his sons a cold, binary worldview: there are only two kinds of people—winners and losers. Donald swallowed this whole. His older brother, Fred Jr., didn’t.
 

Fred Jr. rejected the family’s, sometimes shady, and often cruel real estate empire. He followed his own dream—flying planes instead of flipping properties. But in the Trump household, autonomy was heresy. His father saw it as weakness. The rejection, compounded by disappointment, gnawed at Fred Jr. until alcohol became his escape—and ultimately, at heart attack related to alcohol at 42.
 

Donald, watching all this, made a different choice. He didn’t challenge the system. He became its most loyal disciple—a man determined to win at all costs, even if it meant burning the world down.
 

Not getting any attention from his dad in his early days left Trump with a 24/7 need for constant attention—a deep, unyielding hunger that shaped everything from his business persona to his political rise. If love wasn’t available, he’d settle for applause, outrage, or scandal—so long as the world was watching.
 

And here we have it: a sociopathic narcissist who doesn’t care about anybody, obsessed only with being a winner and staying center stage. No win-win. Only zero-sum. In his world, everybody has to lose for him to feel like he’s won.
 

Republican strategist Rick Wilson summed it up best in the title of his book:

Everything Trump Touches Dies.

 

 

[3NUMBAS]