File photo for reference only

 

Thailand's hotel industry is expected to grapple with the secondary effects of US reciprocal tariffs as a global economic slowdown impacts tourist arrivals. Analysts warn that hoteliers may need to slash prices or launch aggressive marketing campaigns domestically to mitigate the downturn, as international operations face challenges from the broader economic climate.

 

CGS International Securities anticipates a 1% decline in spending per visitor to Thailand next year, with stagnant growth predicted through 2027. This outlook is a reflection of weaker global economic conditions. The brokerage has revised its tourist arrival forecast for this year downward, to 34.5 million from a previously estimated 39 million. This is a slight increase from last year's 35.5 million but still below pre-pandemic numbers.

 

In the first quarter of 2025, Thailand received 9.5 million tourists, marking a 2% increase year-on-year, though this figure remains 12% below the same period in 2019. Chinese tourist arrivals have particularly suffered, plummeting 24% to only 1.3 million compared to the previous year, and constituting merely 42% of the 2019 first-quarter figure. CGS forecasts a total of 5.1 million Chinese tourists this year, down from last year's 6.7 million.

 

Kasem Prunratanamala, head of research at CGS, indicated that it may take several more months before Chinese tourist numbers significantly recover in Thailand. The potential ripple effects of US tariffs and a slower global economy are expected to continue influencing Chinese and overall tourist figures.

 

The global economic deceleration is predicted to affect tourist arrivals not just in Thailand but globally, posing challenges for Thai hotels with international operations. CGS warns that reduced demand could heighten competition within the hotel industry, driving down margins despite the potential benefits of a weak baht making Thailand cheaper for visitors.

 

Bloomberg's consensus projects modest global GDP growth, forecasting 2.8% this year and 3% in 2026, lower than the 3.2% seen in 2024. Kasem suggests that unless there is a significant reduction in US tariffs, the tourism sector will face direct impacts from tariffs and indirect effects from the economic slowdown.

 

KGI Securities (Thailand) notes that hotel performance traditionally dips in the second quarter due to the tourist low season. However, the situation could improve if government schemes such as "We Travel Together" are implemented, boosting local tourism activity. KGI has adjusted its projection for foreign arrivals in 2025 to 36.5 million, reflecting the slow recovery of the Chinese and Korean markets.

 

As Thai hotels brace for challenging times, the industry remains hopeful for strategic interventions and a gradual improvement in the international travel landscape.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-05-15

 

 

15 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

CGS International Securities anticipates a 1% decline in spending per visitor to Thailand next year, with stagnant growth predicted through 2027

Meaning no need to worry next  year and 2027 you will have reached your capacity.

China is now stringently checking all its citizens traveling out of China. This will immensely slow all Chinese travelers overseas. Plus the economic environment just don’t make anyone feel good about traveling and enjoying amidst a chaotic world economy. 
So all travel will be affected… not only Thailand. 

Hoteliers may need to slash prices = they will increase prices to make up for less tourists. 

Well. with the current visa scheme, an increasing number of broke-a*s tourists are coming in and do not hesitate to steal in xyz ways to make ends meet (stealing or breaking into weed shops also, pretty common move now..) and by literally  mugging other tourists in the street (a daily occurrence in places like Patong and Pattaya). The whole thing is just effed up really.

3 hours ago, rumeaug said:

Well. with the current visa scheme, an increasing number of broke-a*s tourists are coming in and do not hesitate to steal in xyz ways to make ends meet (stealing or breaking into weed shops also, pretty common move now..) and by literally  mugging other tourists in the street (a daily occurrence in places like Patong and Pattaya). The whole thing is just effed up really.

What a load of rubbish 

Can't vape, can only buy alcohol at certain times of the day, can't drink it (or smoke) on the beach, some days all bars are closed, poor air quality during the nice cooler/dry season, prices up dramatically. 

 

Not exactly a dream destination for most people.

 

The mongers will still come for the girls but the quality tourists they crave will likely go elsewhere. 

5 hours ago, NemoH said:

China is now stringently checking all its citizens traveling out of China. This will immensely slow all Chinese travelers overseas. Plus the economic environment just don’t make anyone feel good about traveling and enjoying amidst a chaotic world economy. 
So all travel will be affected… not only Thailand. 

Ya think?  What about all the young wealthy Europeans, British & Americans who are rolling in? As far as I can see the Chinese are investing in high rise condominiums- so a different kind of tourist.

4 hours ago, rumeaug said:

Well. with the current visa scheme, an increasing number of broke-a*s tourists are coming in and do not hesitate to steal in xyz ways to make ends meet (stealing or breaking into weed shops also, pretty common move now..) and by literally  mugging other tourists in the street (a daily occurrence in places like Patong and Pattaya). The whole thing is just effed up really.

In LOS where every bad farang story is publicized, I'm sure these people getting mugged would be going to the police.  Daily occurrence so 365 times in a year.....and I can't think of ONE story I heard of a farang mugging another farang.   Nobody's getting mugged and doing nothing in Thailand if it's a farang who mugs you.   I do agree with  your first few sentences, however.  not the mugging part.  

5 hours ago, Toby1947 said:

What a load of rubbish 

Exactly.

9 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Can't vape, can only buy alcohol at certain times of the day, can't drink it (or smoke) on the beach, some days all bars are closed, poor air quality during the nice cooler/dry season, prices up dramatically. 

 

Not exactly a dream destination for most people.

 

The mongers will still come for the girls but the quality tourists they crave will likely go elsewhere. 

I mentioned in another post that the most likely returnees to Thailand these days are the mongers and European snow birds. Thailand has been the hub of cheap shopping for a long time so they will continued to draw nearby Asian neighbors who make frequent shopping runs.

Thailand is now facing stiff competition from Viet Nam. Malaysia and Japan. Those countries are mainly getting tourists that are back packers, single travelers, family and couples with money.

They are not getting the overstayed Russians or visa free low budget Indians along with the African scammers and prostitutes. Ask yourself, why you don't really hear anything negative regarding the tourism sector in those countries?? Cambodia and Philippines are also benefitting from Thailand's downturn.