Texas is getting some early find out, thoughts and prayers.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/01/severe-weather-nws-trump-cuts

Talked to my daughter there, who is miles from the nearest river. Very sad, they still haven't found the 27 who were hit first. All those children who were camping and having fun wake up to this, with 15 gone already. Can't imagine what those parents are going through. A flood prone area with no early warning and when rain like this hits Texas, this happens, just like it did when I was there in 1987. 

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/07/05/texas-hill-country-floods-warning-forecast-nws/

-- In Texas region prone to catastrophic floods, questions grow about lack of warning
-- Water rose fast along the Guadalupe River, causing more than two dozen deaths. Local officials said they couldn’t have seen it coming.

July 5, 2025
Updated: 1 hour ago

From the local Austin, TX, TV station -- Updated: Jul 5, 2025 / 07:42 PM CDT

 

Federal forecast concerns surface in Texas’ deadly flooding debate

 

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/federal-forecast-concerns-surface-in-texas-deadly-flooding-debate/

Why on Earth would you run a children's camp in "one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the U.S."?! Why would you allow any housing structures or any building permits in such an area?! It also appears there were several warnings sent out to officials days ahead of time, and especially hours ahead of impending doom, all of which went ignored?! WTH is wrong with people?!

NB The camp has been there since 1930.

3 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

Local officials said they couldn’t have seen it coming.

 

We'll see how well that excuse works when the inevitable lawsuits and criminal charges arrive.

You are probably right but, for now, search rescue and recovery is the primary concern.

 

In the NYTimes today there was the story of a woman recovered from a tree after having been swept in the river downstream for 20 miles.

 

 

Hmmm. NOAA staffing cuts, FEMA going away. Let's see how the red states get treated...

These were girls from all over Texas not just local.

Will this reignite the debate around global warming.

 

I used to be sceptical now I'm not so sure.

2 minutes ago, Bannoi said:

Will this reignite the debate around global warming.

 

I used to be sceptical now I'm not so sure.

 

 "one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the U.S. "

From the NY Times this could be considered a microburst:

33 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

 

 "one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the U.S. "

So? Your statement is not at all related to global warming.

Then there's this to consider:

 

 

OK but I was willing to let the "Elections Have Consequences" wait a bit.

33 minutes ago, stevenl said:

So? Your statement is not at all related to global warming.

 

The issue isn't global warming related, the area is prone to flash-flooding. Reading comprehension is seriously lacking nowadays.

1 hour ago, jerrymahoney said:

NB The camp has been there since 1930.

What does it mean?

Because existing almost 100 years there can't be any floodings ?😳

6 minutes ago, lordgrinz said:

 

The issue isn't global warming related, the area is prone to flash-flooding. Reading comprehension is seriously lacking nowadays.

One can never realistically conclude that a single weather event is related to global warming. However one can realistically conclude that the much more extreme weather patterns we see nowadays are related to global warming.

12 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

What does it mean?

Because existing almost 100 years there can't be any floodings ?😳

Point of fact. Nothing more. It was not a recent establish.

 

This is a photo of debris on a bridge so you can see how high was the water:

2 hours ago, lordgrinz said:

Why on Earth would you run a children's camp in "one of the most flash-flood-prone areas of the U.S."?! Why would you allow any housing structures or any building permits in such an area?! It also appears there were several warnings sent out to officials days ahead of time, and especially hours ahead of impending doom, all of which went ignored?! WTH is wrong with people?!

 

Because it's a tourist area, a big one. Lots of attractive camping, trails, and nature centers around places like Fredericksburg, New Braunfels, Kerrville, et. al. Everybody knows it's dangerous and prone to flash floods. If you've ever driven through it you would realize it without being told. But the spring rains in Texas usually end by the first week or so in June. July is usually pretty safe. That said, I'd never camp near the river, just  as a precaution. 

44 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

Because it's a tourist area, a big one. Lots of attractive camping, trails, and nature centers around places like Fredericksburg, New Braunfels, Kerrville, et. al. Everybody knows it's dangerous and prone to flash floods. If you've ever driven through it you would realize it without being told. But the spring rains in Texas usually end by the first week or so in June. July is usually pretty safe. That said, I'd never camp near the river, just  as a precaution. 

A main camping area with many camps along the Guadalupe River, on ground that doesn't soak up water easily but lets it runoff into creeks feeding the Guadalupe. That flood in 1987 was also in July, as was a flood in October and December in other years. Texas gets little rain for many months but a lot all of a sudden in hours. Just last month San Antonio had a lot of rain in a short time and there was a flood along Perrin Beitel Road which killed some. Another in August of 2022 around Dallas. I saw a few while living there and mainly in the Guadalupe River, where I saw houses floating down the river off IH 35 in New Braunfels and also in Blanco County. Many dry creeks throughout the Hill Country that are torrents after heavy rains. People die every year trying to bypass closures in moving water of creeks. 

1 minute ago, fredwiggy said:

A main camping area with many camps along the Guadalupe River, on ground that doesn't soak up water easily but lets it runoff into creeks feeding the Guadalupe. That flood in 1987 was also in July, as was a flood in October and December in other years. Texas gets little rain for many months but a lot all of a sudden in hours. Just a couple months ago San Antonio has a lot of rain in a short time and there was a flood along Perrin Beitel Road which killed some. Another in August of 2022 around Dallas. I saw a few while living there and mainly in the Guadalupe River, where I saw houses floating down the river off IH 35 in New Braunfels and also in Blanco County. Many dry creeks throughout the Hill Country that are torrents after heavy rains. People die every year trying to bypass closures in moving water of creeks. 

 

You can look at video of the affected campsite today. It's a wide area with a river almost trickling along at the bottom, and I can see why people lulled into complacency. Today, the river is back to being 2 ft deep. Yesterday, it was over 30 ft.

Just now, John Drake said:

 

You can look at video of the affected campsite today. It's a wide area with a river almost trickling along at the bottom, and I can see why people lulled into complacency. Today, the river is back to being 2 ft deep. Yesterday, it was over 30 ft.

Yep. that's the normal level for July there. I went hunting in that area many times and the river is usually low in the Summer. Same thing in 1987. It rises so fast it's ridiculous.

Just now, fredwiggy said:

Yep. that's the normal level for July there. I went hunting in that area many times and the river is usually low in the Summer. Same thing in 1987. It rises so fast it's ridiculous.

 

I haven't been back to the US since 2012, and I haven't been back to the Hill Country in several decades. I remember the area around Boerne in particular being susceptible to flash flood. Lots deep gullies where you could see the water trail and realize the danger. Lots of things to get you in central and north Texas, flash floods, tornadoes, hail storms, wind storms, ice storms. Makes you realize just how peaceable Thailand is--and, yes, even with my house being under 80cm of water from the end of October 2011 to the beginning of January 2012.

8 minutes ago, John Drake said:

 

I haven't been back to the US since 2012, and I haven't been back to the Hill Country in several decades. I remember the area around Boerne in particular being susceptible to flash flood. Lots deep gullies where you could see the water trail and realize the danger. Lots of things to get you in central and north Texas, flash floods, tornadoes, hail storms, wind storms, ice storms. Makes you realize just how peaceable Thailand is--and, yes, even with my house being under 80cm of water from the end of October 2011 to the beginning of January 2012.

I was born in New Jersey but lived in Texas for 32 years and it'll again be my home as soon as I can find a home for myself and my daughter. Miss it daily. Never saw a tornado as they rarely got that far south (San Antonio area). The closest was in Jarrell, about 1 1/2 hours north, which took a whole subdivision away. The worst I ever saw was heavy rain and wind, with some large hail. When I move back I'll be around my daughter's area, which is southeast of Hunt, where the flood was. The Guadalupe isn't far, but doesn't flood in that area. Some live too close to that river and pay the price when this happens. I love the 4 seasons, and it's actually hotter there on average than Thailand, but the Spring, Winter and Fall are really nice. The only problem in Texas has been the over development there in the last few decades.

9 minutes ago, fredwiggy said:

I was born in New Jersey but lived in Texas for 32 years and it'll again be my home as soon as I can find a home for myself and my daughter. Miss it daily. Never saw a tornado as they rarely got that far south (San Antonio area). The closest was in Jarrell, about 1 1/2 hours north, which took a whole subdivision away. The worst I ever saw was heavy rain and wind, with some large hail. When I move back I'll be around my daughter's area, which is southeast of Hunt, where the flood was. The Guadalupe isn't far, but doesn't flood in that area. Some live too close to that river and pay the price when this happens. I love the 4 seasons, and it's actually hotter there on average than Thailand, but the Spring, Winter and Fall are really nice. The only problem in Texas has been the over development there in the last few decades.

 

I'm originally from North Texas, but if I ever went back, which I'll never do, it would probably be to some place like Goliad or Victoria. Central Texas where this flood took place is overrun. And any disaster there is now compounded with the increasing population, especially of newcomers to the state who have little experience with just how extreme the weather can get.

3 hours ago, jerrymahoney said:

Point of fact. Nothing more. It was not a recent establish.

 

This is a photo of debris on a bridge so you can see how high was the water:

If authorities would have realized increasing heavy storms and floodings within the last hundred years this camp should have been removed.

29 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

If authorities would have realized increasing heavy storms and floodings within the last hundred years this camp should have been removed.

Well that may turn up as a legal issue in short order.

 

Also this:

 

Kerrville didn’t have weather sirens used by other cities
 

Posted: Jul 5, 2025 / 07:55 PM CDT

 

“The tragic events at Camp Mystic and the devastating flooding along the Guadalupe River that happened in July are stark reminders that severe weather can strike with little notice,” Wilson wrote. “A well-placed siren system will provide critical extra minutes for families, schools, camps, businesses, and visitors to seek shelter and evacuate when needed. This is not just a wish – it is a necessary investment in public safety.”

 

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/kerrville-didnt-have-weather-sirens-used-by-other-cities/

30 minutes ago, jerrymahoney said:

Well that may turn up as a legal issue in short order.

 

Also this:

 

Kerrville didn’t have weather sirens used by other cities
 

Posted: Jul 5, 2025 / 07:55 PM CDT

 

“The tragic events at Camp Mystic and the devastating flooding along the Guadalupe River that happened in July are stark reminders that severe weather can strike with little notice,” Wilson wrote. “A well-placed siren system will provide critical extra minutes for families, schools, camps, businesses, and visitors to seek shelter and evacuate when needed. This is not just a wish – it is a necessary investment in public safety.”

 

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/kerrville-didnt-have-weather-sirens-used-by-other-cities/

An early warning system anything like that would have given them time to get to higher ground, which was only a minute away from their cabins.