Analysis Rising Tensions: Is Full-Scale War Looming on Thailand-Cambodia Border?

[JJ-Thailand]

8 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

Chinese have offered to mediate.

Hope they are serious.

 

Hope they stay away.

[Georgealbert]

UPDATE
Three Thai Soldiers Killed in Cambodian Rocket Attack at Surin Border Temple - F16 Strikes on Cambodian Military Targets

Picture courtesy of CH3

 

Three Thai soldiers have been killed and another injured following a deadly rocket attack by Cambodian forces near Prasat Ta Krabey, a temple close to the Thai-Cambodian border in Surin province. The incident occurred during the morning hours of 25 July, amid escalating border tensions.

 

Security officials from Thailand’s Second Army Region confirmed that Cambodian troops launched BM-21 multiple rocket launchers, which were reportedly stationed near civilian areas, including schools, temples and residential communities, in an apparent attempt to shield the weapons from counterattack.

 

The Thai soldiers who lost their lives in the line of duty were members of Long-Range Reconnaissance Patrol Company 6, 6th Infantry Division. They have been identified as:

 

1. Sergeant Napadol Boonlert

2. Sergeant Krisada Noikot

3. Sergeant Jirayu Sing-on

 

Another soldier, Sergeant Sutthichai Ruearueang, sustained injuries during the attack and is currently receiving medical treatment.

 

The Thai military condemned Cambodia’s use of civilian infrastructure to conceal artillery, calling it a grave violation of international humanitarian law.

 

 

Thai Air Force Launches Precision F-16 Strikes on Cambodian Military Targets

Bombing runs target positions around Phra Wihan, Ta Muen Thom and Phu Makua used to shell Thai civilians

 

The Royal Thai Air Force conducted a series of targeted air strikes using F-16 fighter jets on 25 July, striking Cambodian military positions believed to be responsible for recent cross-border attacks that killed Thai soldiers and civilians.

 

In the first mission conducted just after midday, four F-16 jets carried out bombing operations on two Cambodian military sites, believed to be artillery positions used to launch rockets into Thai territory. All aircraft safely returned to base.

 

A second wave of air strikes followed in the afternoon, when two additional F-16s conducted precision attacks on two more targets, reportedly scoring direct hits before safely returning to base.

 

The air strikes were concentrated around the Phra Wihan Temple (Preah Vihear), Ta Muen Thom, and Phu Makua areas, strategic zones identified by Thai intelligence as launch points for BM-21 multiple rocket systems used by Cambodian forces.

 

A military spokesperson stated the operation was a measured response, aimed at neutralising threats to civilian lives and infrastructure in border communities. “These military positions were deliberately used to fire upon civilian areas. The air strikes were conducted to eliminate this capability, in accordance with the rules of engagement and with minimal collateral risk.”

 

 

 

  Adapted by Asean Now from CH3 2025-07-25

 

 

 

[Chongalulu]

8 hours ago, SenorTashi said:

A Thai friend recently posted a professional looking video saying how proud Thailand was to be 95% Buddhist.

Just had a quick look and Cambodia is 97% Buddhist.

 

 

 

"I'm the only Buddhist in the village!"

[hotchilli]

10 hours ago, webfact said:

The 2025 Thai-Cambodian border situation is perilously close to escalating into a limited war. While Thailand's military edge is clear, political fragility is a critical weakness. Conversely, Cambodia leverages psychological tactics despite battlefield disadvantages. Without controlled escalation, both nations could face their most significant conflict in decades.

Both sides have more to lose than win... and neither want or need the worlds press looking in.

As for Thailand, tourism is a major income, and tourists don't like war zones.

After a few days of poking each other in the chest in a tit-for-tat aggression, things will calm down.

[ukrules]

8 hours ago, SenorTashi said:

A Thai friend recently posted a professional looking video saying how proud Thailand was to be 95% Buddhist.

Just had a quick look and Cambodia is 97% Buddhist.

 

Sounds about right, don't forget they killed nearly all others and plenty of their own during the mass murder regime, I noticed a distinct lack of muslims in Cambodia for example.

They're there but in small numbers but it's not 97% Bhuddist.

[renaissanc]

10 hours ago, JAG said:

Golly, that F16 was low!

The Thai air force has good pilots!

[Hunz Kittisak]

1 hour ago, Burma Bill said:

 Very much so. 

 

Cambodia had claimed to have shot down one F16!

Damaged but not downed

To what extent the damage was not reported 

[renaissanc]

Dictators love to send people to die in wars for their own goals while they hide in fear. I suggest that the F-16s be sent to Phnom Penh to get rid of the dictator so that the war ends at once. Hun Sen's son will then flee abroad, and Cambodia can then create a democratic government. Hun Sen will only start another war one day, and Cambodia will remain poor, if this doesn't happen.

[Will B Good]

If push comes to shove, unless China steps in, Cambodia is in for a good spanking.

[kwilco]

this is all down to the military trying to take over the government again and justifying a coup....or disguising a coup.

[BarraMarra]

5 hours ago, smedly said:

there is a massive difference between the the two countries and their military size and capability, on paper Thailand is far superior in every way by some margin

Its the Man power and Professionalism id be worried about on the battlefield with the Thai infanrty if it came to the push.

[harryviking]

The stupidity is mindboggling! Imagine starting a war over a small piece of land with some old useless ruins! Who are these morons in government actually???? Retards??😫

[Grusa]

7 hours ago, whiteman said:

We will know it is bad when the first car bomb goes off outside a tourist bar in Bangkok. Till then all smoke and mirrors.

Hun Sen:- "Do you know, I never thought of that! What a good idea".

Thaksin- "Do you know, I never thought of that! What a good idea".

[RickyJB]

10 hours ago, Mitkof Island said:

There is one person responsible for this mess. If he was in prison where he should be none of this would have ever happened besides numerous other things.

Exactly 👍 this criminal family need banned from politics.. kiss aarsing the WEF / WHO  as well. Jail them all 

[BerndD]

11 hours ago, JAG said:

Golly, that F16 was low!

Yes, she blew many soldiers into unknown territory. 😉

[topcat333]

Sarin is an hour's drive from my house. Who would have thought?

[portisaacozzy]

11 hours ago, webfact said:

Composite image courtesy of Sima Rath

 

From 2011 Clashes to 2025 Turmoil: Strategic Insights

 

Background: A Decade Ago

 

In 2011, the Thai-Cambodian relations hit a boiling point. Abhisit Vejjajiva's government faced nationalist pressure over the disputed 4.6-square-kilometer area around the Preah Vihear Temple. Cambodia's unilateral World Heritage Site registration ignited this conflict, leading to intense clashes that rocked both nations.

 

2011 Crisis Overview

 

January: Seven Thai citizens were arrested, escalating tensions.

4-7 February: Heavy weapon clashes near the Preah Vihear and Phu Makhua involved fatalities and property damage.

April: Battles erupted at Ta Muean Thom and Ta Kwai, lasting several days.

28 April: Cambodia petitioned the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

18 July: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered the withdrawal of troops from the disputed zone.

2025: Heightened Tensions Erupt

 

On 24 July 2025, tensions reignited, threatening to surpass past conflicts. Clashes erupted at Ta Muean Thom in Surin, spreading to the Preah Vihear in Sisaket.

 

 

Cambodia Initiates Fire: Reports confirm Cambodian forces encroached and attacked Thai troops.
Landmine Injuries: Two Thai soldiers were injured, one losing a leg, amid accusations of new Cambodian landmines.

Thai Retaliation: Artillery was deployed to defend sovereignty.

Diplomatic Fallout: Thailand expelled the Cambodian envoy, and Cambodia downgraded diplomatic ties.
Border Closures: Checkpoints at Chong Bok, Chong Chom, Ta Muean Thom, and Ta Kwai were shut to control the situation.

 

Rocket Attack Escalates Conflict

 

Cambodian forces allegedly launched BM21 rockets at Ban Jorakhe, Surin, resulting in one civilian death and severe injuries, including children. A similar incident at a petrol station in Sisaket injured numerous people, igniting pressure on the Thai government to respond.

 

Thailand's International Defence Stance

 

The Thai military claims that its actions align with international law, specifically the UN Charter's Article 51 on self-defence. The Foreign Ministry has briefed the UN Security Council (UNSC), stressing that attacks are solely military-focused and cultural heritage sites are safeguarded.

 

 

Potential Full-Scale War: Looming Threat

 

High Escalation Risk: Repeated intrusions and rocket strikes on civilians may push Thailand towards intensified military measures.

Negotiation Hurdles: ASEAN or ICJ interventions may falter due to internal dynamics in Thailand and Cambodia, potentially delaying diplomatic resolutions.

War Prospects: Who Holds the Advantage?

 

Thailand's Strengths:

Thailand's strengths include its superior military capabilities, particularly its air power and long-range artillery.

The proximity to Thai communities provides robust logistical support.

Likely global support if perceived defensively.

Thailand's Challenges:

Rugged terrain limits heavy weapon efficacy.

Political pressures may deter prolonged military engagement.

Cambodia's Strengths:

The country boasts established positions and pre-laid mines.

Diplomatic ties with nations like China.

Cambodia's Challenges:

Cambodia faces challenges due to its inferior military strength.
Complex logistics.

Risk of global condemnation if seen as the aggressor.

Conclusion: Could This Ignite a Major Conflict?

 

The 2025 Thai-Cambodian border situation is perilously close to escalating into a limited war. While Thailand's military edge is clear, political fragility is a critical weakness. Conversely, Cambodia leverages psychological tactics despite battlefield disadvantages. Without controlled escalation, both nations could face their most significant conflict in decades.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Siam Rath 2025-07-25

 

 

be careful what you ask for

[ronnie50]

10 hours ago, JAG said:

I have to wonder what was the point in firing a BM21 rocket into an apparently unrelated area of Thailand.

Notice how there's video footage of the aftermath, but none of the actual strike? Even though there is a clearly visibile, apparently, unscathed CCTV camera in footage showing damage at the hospital. Let's see CCTV of the rocket landing..

[Srikcir]

10 hours ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

People claim to be Buddhists, not nations.

False with regard to Thailand.

The Head of State must be Buddhist. 95%+ Thais claim patrons of Buddhism.

[Will B Good]

3 minutes ago, Srikcir said:

False with regard to Thailand.

The Head of State must be Buddhist. 95%+ Thais claim patrons of Buddhism.

 

I'm guessing that other 5% are monks.

[kwilco]

7 hours ago, smedly said:

there is a massive difference between the the two countries and their military size and capability, on paper Thailand is far superior in every way by some margin

just like America and Vietnam?

I think you'll find the situation is a bit more nuanced than that.

[Burma Bill]

1 hour ago, kwilco said:

this is all down to the military trying to take over the government again and justifying a coup....or disguising a coup.

 Thanks - this is my thought as well.

 

For the many of you that have lived in Siam for a long time, you must know the country is, in effect, controlled by the Monarchy backed up by the Thai Military and any aspect that could affect this may end up with a coup , especially if changes to the Constitution are considered.

[kimamey]

2 hours ago, harryviking said:

The stupidity is mindboggling! Imagine starting a war over a small piece of land with some old useless ruins! Who are these morons in government actually???? Retards??😫

Who are these morons in government actually???? Retards??😫

 

Some old useless ruins. 

[Geoff914]

From the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg5gz03d8no

 

"Cambodia, for its part, accused Thailand of using cluster munitions. Cluster munitions are banned in much of the world because of their indiscriminate effect on civilian populations." Says the country using Land mines.

[Sir Dude]

On a local level in ASEAN, Cambodia is no match for Thailand militarily... Thailand can and should wipe the floor with them. Cambodia has targeted civilian targets because they have the old soviet weapon systems that can't hit a barn door at 200 meters. This is a good chance for Thailand to show it's power and put the scumbags in Cambodia in their place... do it.

[Shocked farang]

5 hours ago, Iron Tongue said:

 

Yes.

From reading this thread, most posters don't understand that the Thai and Cambodians have been traditional enemies for 700 years.   Just because it's 2025 does not mean that one wrong move won't spark a full blown war at a scale not seen since 1979.  

 

China can end a war, but they'd gain more "prestige" if they let the killing get really bloody before stepping-in so they'd look even better in the eyes of the world.  

The city where is the base to visit the Angkor Wat temples is Siem Reap, Siem Reap means Siam defeated, Thais defeated, can you imagine? 

[TonyFromItaly]

If you read the Cambodian media, they tell a story that's the opposite of what you read in the Thai media.
The truth isn't just on one side.

You have to see both sides of the story...

 

Tony

[Geoff914]

2 minutes ago, Shocked farang said:

The city where is the base to visit the Angkor Wat temples is Siem Reap, Siem Reap means Siam defeated, Thais defeated, can you imagine? 

Wow. And Britain gets criticised because we have a Bridge and station called Waterloo. But Austerlitz station is OK.

[Shocked farang]

2 minutes ago, TonyFromItaly said:

If you read the Cambodian media, they tell a story that's the opposite of what you read in the Thai media.
The truth isn't just on one side.

You have to see both sides of the story...

 

Tony

That's true, I have been reading in the Khmer Times, but it's a government controlled media outlet, cannot be trusted. 

[bannork]

2 hours ago, harryviking said:

The stupidity is mindboggling! Imagine starting a war over a small piece of land with some old useless ruins! Who are these morons in government actually???? Retards??😫

Have you thought the dispute might be about vested Interests in Cambodia's scam centres and casinos and Thailand's attempts to close them down?