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Anyone investing in AI stocks ?

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On 11/16/2025 at 11:45 AM, gargamon said:

Just like all the suckers investing gambling in bitcoin. Screenshot_20251116_124410_KiwiBrowser.jpg.311be0ccf74a740aac526bd215016715.jpg


I'm unsure why this post got two 'thumbs down' reactions - Bitcoin is now at 91,650 as I write this, and dropping.  There is no rational case for calling cryptocurrencies an investment.  Investment focuses on longer-term viability and intrinsic value; speculation is focused on shorter-term price movements and market sentiment.  So, which Bitcoin 'investors' have done appropriate due diligence and researched the instrument before committing?  Exactly, hence speculation.

Once people are 'bought in' (in more ways than one) they can't see the signals objectively any more.  Bitcoin has much further to fall.  The remaining question is whether it will ever return to former heights...

As for AI stocks, they're just a little behind the curve compared with cryptocurrencies, and are also due a large correction.  I am happy to state there is far more substance to AI stocks than cryptocurrencies but when all the current valuations are a thousand times expected earnings this year, a correction is inevitable.
 

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  • Just like all the suckers investing gambling in bitcoin. 

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1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

As for AI stocks, they're just a little behind the curve compared with cryptocurrencies, and are also due a large correction.  I am happy to state there is far more substance to AI stocks than cryptocurrencies

 

I also believe a correction (or profit taking is due)

 

 

1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

but when all the current valuations are a thousand times expected earnings this year, a correction is inevitable.
 

 

a thousand times?  What stock are you referring to?  You said "all".  That is simply wrong. A horrific exaggeration.

 

nvidia ?  No ... its trailing p/e about 53x.  Its leading p/e about 30 to 32x.  So 1,000x ?  i think not.

 

ok... how about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM, or TSMC)?  well its trailing p/e is about 28 to 29x.  Its leading p/e about 23x to 25x.     So 1,000x?  I think not.

 

 

ok ... how about PLTR ?  ok ... yes this is more speculative. Much more speculative. Its trailing p/e is about 400–550.  Its leading p/e is 175 to 230x. Yes ... very speculative.  So yes, lots of speculation there. But 1,000x ??  I think not.

 

ok. ... NOT 1,000x   Lets look further ..

 

How about AMSL ?  Its Trailing P/E → ~35–42x.   Its leading P/E ?  33 to 35x.  So 1,000x ??  I think not.

 

How about AVGO ?  It is more speculative.  is trailing p/e is 85–92x.  Its leading p/e is about 39 to 43x   Definitely expensive. More expensive than nvidia. but 1,000x ??  I think not.

 

How about GOOGL ? Its trailing P/E: ≈ 24.5–25.5x.  Its leading/forward p/e ?  21 to 23x .   so is it 1,000x ??/ I think not 

 

I could go on, but I think I made my point.  You stated " when all the current valuations are a thousand times expected earnings" 

 

You did say "all" right?  "all".  

 

I think not.

 

Do i think there will a market adjustment? Yes. Highly likely, but its not because ALL AI stock current valuations are a thousand times earnings.

 

That is flat wrong, and anyone who trades on that sort of assessment is IMHO doomed not to make money.  Accuracy is important here.  Really. Its very very important.

 

Best wishes in your investments.  I recommend having a cash position on hand so to deal with and take advantage of any market downward adjustment.   But if i may - don't assume ALL AI current valuations are a thousand times expected earnings. That is not the case, and it will mislead you.

 

Again. Best wishes.

 

 

  • Author
1 hour ago, IsaanT said:


I'm unsure why this post got two 'thumbs down' reactions - Bitcoin is now at 91,650 as I write this.  There is no rational case for calling cryptocurrencies an investment.

Once people are 'bought in' (in more ways than one) they can't see the signals objectively any more.  Bitcoin has much further to fall.  The remaining question is whether it will ever return to former heights...

As for AI stocks, they're just a little behind the curve compared with cryptocurrencies, and are also due a large correction.  I am happy to state there is far more substance to AI stocks than cryptocurrencies but when all the current valuations are a thousand times expected earnings this year, a correction is inevitable.
 

 

One cannot doubt that there is a very good future in store for AI.
The same does not necessarily apply for many AI companies.
A company's stock price should, over the longer term, be related to potential future earnings from dividends, over a reasonable period of time.  Companies that have high valuations, huge debts and little or no earnings are particularly vulnerable when a downturn occurs.  Although there are many other factors to consider.
Short term, when the market or a market sector is booming, rising share price can be a major consideration.  It is easy to float upwards on a rising tide.
But boom over, share valuations can fall, sometimes dramatically, and one is back to looking for divident-payers.  Cautious choice becomes necessary.
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results".
That is how I see it, and feel if there is now any boom left in the market as a whole (excluding a niche here and there) it is going to be short-lived.
Judge for yourself where things stand.  But don't get caught with your pants down!

 

Regarding Bitcoin, it has always been highly volatile which is why huge profits and huge losses have been possible.  It depends upon when one buys in and when one sells out.  The same rule applies to stocks.
The US Government's establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve whose BTCs "will never be sold", plus the Reserve's intended accumulation of further BTCs, may help to reduce volatility and thereby the potential for the large gains that some have made in the past.  It might even become a 'store of value' but is unlikely to equal gold in that role.

 

Gold is not an 'investment' except temporally in the current catastrophically bizarre circunstances caused by market manipulation by governments and the oligarchs.

Alt coins are extremely risky (many have already gone to zero) unless one has a very good knowledge of what one is buying.

  • Author
6 hours ago, mordothailand said:

i cant make up my mind, tech stocks, gold, or bitcoin,

the only thing for certain is that i lose money while it sits in the bank

 I am not advising you, just saying what I am doing, or would do if I had more to invest.

 

Physical gold, stored and insured with an established bullion vaulting company, and 'allocated' (you are the legal owner).  NOT retained by the dealer you bought it through.  Purchase and sale online.  Storage location not in your country of nationality or residence.  Can keep a small amount at home, well hidden, for emergency.  Dealers to look at:

 

https://www.bullionvault.com/

 

https://swpcayman.com/

 

Physical silver.  Same as for gold (note that on a per-value basis storage cost is much higher than for gold).  Would not normally recommend holding any significant amount of silver, but good upside potential at present.

 

Shares in gold, silver, and uranium mining companies, preferably royalty and streaming companies.  NOT exploration companies, as a general rule.  Mines in friendly jurisdictions (less likely to be nationalised)

 

Shares in U.S. companies producing materials the U.S. Government has declared to be of Strategic Importance, such as rare earths.  They are likely to be supported, including financially, by the government.

 

Not tech stocks at the present time.

 

Bitcoin.  A very small percentage of what you have available: an amount you can afford to lose.

13 hours ago, FruitPudding said:

A lot of stocks have done just as well or better, and some have done a lot better. Look at Nvidia.

Sure, if you have insider information or a crystal ball and can cherry-pick at the bottom highly profitable stocks that's the way to go.

Likewise, some altcoins have done way better than Nvidia.

14 hours ago, mordothailand said:

i cant make up my mind, tech stocks, gold, or bitcoin,

the only thing for certain is that i lose money while it sits in the bank

image.jpeg.2309d2d5667484fea13921fb6ac242cb.jpeg

 

For those who are skeptical there are plenty of info online that answer the question "Why should Bitcoin still continue to go up in price?".

 

At the end of the day and a lot of researches, investing is just nothing but a matter of personal conviction.

 

  • Author
1 hour ago, Yumthai said:

or those who are skeptical there are plenty of info online that answer the question "Why should Bitcoin still continue to go up in price?".

 

This supports informed investment in cryptos, notably BTC:

 

The Fed Just Sent an Emergency Bitcoin Signal (This Is Big)
https://youtu.be/k0TC8uX9dXE

  • Author
2 hours ago, Yumthai said:

image.jpeg.2309d2d5667484fea13921fb6ac242cb.jpeg

 

For those who are skeptical there are plenty of info online that answer the question "Why should Bitcoin still continue to go up in price?".

 

At the end of the day and a lot of researches, investing is just nothing but a matter of personal conviction.

 

 

Buy BTC when it bottoms:

 

Bitcoin Crashed After Hitting $126,000!

 

 

4 hours ago, Yumthai said:

 

For those who are skeptical there are plenty of info online that answer the question "Why should Bitcoin still continue to go up in price?".

 

At the end of the day and a lot of researches, investing is just nothing but a matter of personal conviction.

 


I wonder if you could survive/sleep at night if bitcoin corrected to 60,000, perhaps lower?  For the sake of this question, we'll factor in your assumption that it will continue to rise in the long run.
 

14 hours ago, ericbj said:

Regarding Bitcoin, it has always been highly volatile which is why huge profits and huge losses have been possible.  It depends upon when one buys in and when one sells out.  The same rule applies to stocks.
The US Government's establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve whose BTCs "will never be sold", plus the Reserve's intended accumulation of further BTCs, may help to reduce volatility and thereby the potential for the large gains that some have made in the past.  It might even become a 'store of value' but is unlikely to equal gold in that role.

 


Ah, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) - I believe the devil's in the detail...

The SBR was created by an executive order from President Trump in March this year.

Firstly, it is widely known that the Trump family and friends have benefitted significantly from Bitcoin trades this year, including the big short half an hour before Trump's global tarriff announcement.

Additionally, the reserve is initially funded only with Bitcoin that has been forfeited to the US government through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings (e.g., from dark web market seizures).  The US government already held an estimated 198,000 BTC as of August 2025, making it the largest known state holder.  Furthermore, the Treasury and Commerce Departments are directed to develop "budget-neutral" strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin without imposing incremental costs on taxpayers.  As you state, these Bitcoin assets shall not be sold (this is the actual wording from the SBR, not "never will be sold" - yes, I'm a pedant but words matter, especially in 'smoke and mirrors' situations...).

A U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile was also created for non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum, Solana, etc.), which will only be capitalised with forfeited assets and may be sold off by the Treasury.

The stated goal of the SBR is to diversify national reserves alongside assets like gold, enhance financial sovereignty, and position the US as the "Crypto Capital of the World" by signalling government confidence in the sector.

Lastly, the administration of the SBR is placed within the U.S. Department of the Treasury, whose involvement is primarily aimed at signalling market confidence and solidifying Bitcoin's position (which directly benefits those who already hold the asset).  The Federal Reserve have no involvement in it, and the Fed Reserve Chain Jerome Powell has explicity stated that the Fed has no intention of participating in any government initiative to amass substantial Bitcoin holdings, noting that the Fed is "not allowed to own bitcoin" and has not sought a change in the law to do so.  As such, the SBR has no influence on monetary policy, unlike Gold, for example.

 

Let's analyse this.  It's a "budget-neutral" strategy using criminal or civil asset forfeiture to create a strategic reserve.  Surely if it was nationally strategic, it wouldn't be budget-neutral? 

Could it be that the SBR is a fancy-sounding mechanism to help bolster the perception and value of Bitcoin, at no cost to the U.S. taxpayer, for the benefit of the Trump family and their close friends? 🤔

1 hour ago, IsaanT said:

I wonder if you could survive/sleep at night if bitcoin corrected to 60,000, perhaps lower?  For the sake of this question, we'll factor in your assumption that it will continue to rise in the long run.

Over the past decade I have survived when some of my investments corrected down to -90% then recovered (few still in the red though).

This is a risk aversion question, I am fine with that.

 

9 minutes ago, Yumthai said:

Over the past decade I have survived when some of my investments corrected down to -90% then recovered (few still in the red though).

This is a risk aversion question, I am fine with that.

 


I'm pleased you appear to manage the risks appropriately but you'll know that many are not in the same situation, hence the question.  I am aware of people who lost their houses in the dotcom bubble in 2000.
 

22 hours ago, Yumthai said:

Sure, if you have insider information or a crystal ball and can cherry-pick at the bottom highly profitable stocks that's the way to go.

Likewise, some altcoins have done way better than Nvidia.

 

You could just look at the business fundamentals 😆 

 

I know that doesn't come into the equation for crapcoins though, lol  😂 

2 hours ago, FruitPudding said:

You could just look at the business fundamentals 😆 

If it was that simple everyone would be a billionaire, aren't you?

  • Author
19 hours ago, IsaanT said:


Ah, the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) - I believe the devil's in the detail...

The SBR was created by an executive order from President Trump in March this year.

Firstly, it is widely known that the Trump family and friends have benefitted significantly from Bitcoin trades this year, including the big short half an hour before Trump's global tarriff announcement.

Additionally, the reserve is initially funded only with Bitcoin that has been forfeited to the US government through criminal or civil asset forfeiture proceedings (e.g., from dark web market seizures).  The US government already held an estimated 198,000 BTC as of August 2025, making it the largest known state holder.  Furthermore, the Treasury and Commerce Departments are directed to develop "budget-neutral" strategies for acquiring additional Bitcoin without imposing incremental costs on taxpayers.  As you state, these Bitcoin assets shall not be sold (this is the actual wording from the SBR, not "never will be sold" - yes, I'm a pedant but words matter, especially in 'smoke and mirrors' situations...).

A U.S. Digital Asset Stockpile was also created for non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies (like Ethereum, Solana, etc.), which will only be capitalised with forfeited assets and may be sold off by the Treasury.

The stated goal of the SBR is to diversify national reserves alongside assets like gold, enhance financial sovereignty, and position the US as the "Crypto Capital of the World" by signalling government confidence in the sector.

Lastly, the administration of the SBR is placed within the U.S. Department of the Treasury, whose involvement is primarily aimed at signalling market confidence and solidifying Bitcoin's position (which directly benefits those who already hold the asset).  The Federal Reserve have no involvement in it, and the Fed Reserve Chain Jerome Powell has explicity stated that the Fed has no intention of participating in any government initiative to amass substantial Bitcoin holdings, noting that the Fed is "not allowed to own bitcoin" and has not sought a change in the law to do so.  As such, the SBR has no influence on monetary policy, unlike Gold, for example.

 

Let's analyse this.  It's a "budget-neutral" strategy using criminal or civil asset forfeiture to create a strategic reserve.  Surely if it was nationally strategic, it wouldn't be budget-neutral? 

Could it be that the SBR is a fancy-sounding mechanism to help bolster the perception and value of Bitcoin, at no cost to the U.S. taxpayer, for the benefit of the Trump family and their close friends? 🤔

 

This is interesting !

Trump's Bitcoin Executive Order Exposed - The Confiscation They're Not Telling You

 

 

  • Author
19 hours ago, IsaanT said:


I'm pleased you appear to manage the risks appropriately but you'll know that many are not in the same situation, hence the question.  I am aware of people who lost their houses in the dotcom bubble in 2000.
 

 

People who mortgage their houses to invest in highly speculative stocks presumably have never studied the risks involved.  Investment involves risk management.  Otherwise it is pure gambling.

 

Maybe they did not even know what a 'stop-loss' is.

 

They should have studied stock-market investing first, or limited their gambling to risking a few dollars on the horses.  Just as exciting, if not more so.

On 11/19/2025 at 8:02 AM, Yumthai said:

Sure, if you have insider information or a crystal ball and can cherry-pick at the bottom highly profitable stocks that's the way to go.

Likewise, some altcoins have done way better than Nvidia.

 

Speaking of nvidia, the reported results at the annual meeting exceeded pretty much even the more optimistic speculations.  Before the Annual meeting nvidia share price toward the end of October reached around $207 USD/share, but then in the weeks after that the share price dropped about 10.5% to around $175 USD/share (and maybe even a bit lower than that).

 

I suspect with these annual earnings results the stock could again test the past high of $207 USD/share.  ...  I has me wondering, will an upward move of nvidia (due to its excellent earnings results) pull up many other AI stocks to reach potentially unjustified (??) highs?

 

If only I had a functioning and totally accurate crystal ball.  😅

.

  • Author

Interesting:

This Bank Predicted Everything 20 Years Ago

 

 

6 hours ago, Yumthai said:

If it was that simple everyone would be a billionaire, aren't you?

 

Nope, but I am a millionaire.

  • Author
36 minutes ago, FruitPudding said:

 

Nope, but I am a millionaire.

You  have a million baht  ?  Bravo !

  • Author

"QE is coming. But not as a tool. As a signal of surrender.
"Prepare accordingly.
"And if you’re trying to navigate this macro environment with only mainstream media headlines and Fed pressers, you’re going to miss the real story…"

 

QE Is Coming (Again), But It Won’t Fix What’s Actually Broken
https://rebelcapitalist.com/p/qe-is-coming-again-but-it-wont-fix

 

  • Author

Discussion about the AI market, and gold, and crypto:

 

"Bitcoin Millionaires Selling their Bitcoin for Gold" 

 

 

  • Author

AI stocks, gold, BTC, USD, platinum, silver, Tether:

 

We’re at EXACT Level That Triggered Every 40% Crash in History – AI Stocks & Bitcoin to Collapse!

 

 

3 hours ago, ericbj said:

You  have a million baht  ?  Bravo !

 

Nah, in sh!t coins, buddy!

2 hours ago, ericbj said:

AI stocks, gold, BTC, USD, platinum, silver, Tether:

 

We’re at EXACT Level That Triggered Every 40% Crash in History – AI Stocks & Bitcoin to Collapse!

 

 

... and when the crash doesn't happen? We won't hear beep from those making the predictions.  

 

I've lost count of # of times I have read of such predictions (based on this or that aspect) and when it doesn't happen, those making the prediction are so very very silent.

On 11/19/2025 at 12:31 AM, ericbj said:

 

Shares in U.S. companies producing materials the U.S. Government has declared to be of Strategic Importance, such as rare earths.  They are likely to be supported, including financially, by the government.

 

Not tech stocks at the present time.

 

US Government purchased a MASSIVE amount of Intel stock not too long ago.  Why?  The US Government decided Intel was of strategic importance.  

 

IMHO some tech stock are definitely worth owning. But one does need to be selective. 

On 11/18/2025 at 6:18 PM, mordothailand said:

i cant make up my mind, tech stocks, gold, or bitcoin,

the only thing for certain is that i lose money while it sits in the bank

 

I don't understand the upward movement of bitcoin - so I avoid such.  I have learned the hardway in life when i dive into something I don't understand, it typically costs me money.  

 

Gold?  I think a case can be made for it, but holding a position in gold doesn't match my trading/investment style.

 

As for stocks, i would not recommend limiting it to tech stocks.  That is not to say do not invest in tech stocks, but rather to say, be conservative, and expand one's portfolio beyond just tech stocks.

 

The market is IMHO still over due for more of a sell off, albeit nvidia, with its recent strong earnings, is making it difficult for the 'bears' to push down the 'bullish' sentiment.

.

9 hours ago, oldcpu said:

The market is IMHO still over due for more of a sell off, albeit nvidia, with its recent strong earnings, is making it difficult for the 'bears' to push down the 'bullish' sentiment.

 

There maybe more to the Nvidia price action story ...

 

https://substack.com/home/post/p-179453867

  • Author

 

The Analog Chip the U S Can’t Stop — China Just Broke the AI Race

 

 

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