11 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

 

When the West backed Yeltsin to advance their interests in a collapsed Soviet Union and presided over the country's descent into poverty and chaos, they gave birth to Putin. He is the bastard child of US triumphalism in the same way Hitler was born from the rubble of the Treaty of Versailles.

These are the moves of great power politics, and they stink. They stink because they sacrifice hundreds of thousands of ordinary lives for abstract geopolitical advantage. They stink because they're conducted by people thousands of miles from the consequences comfortable men in Washington and Brussels who'll never dodge a shell or bury their children. They stink because they create the very monsters they later claim moral authority to fight.

 

And they stink because they're built on rank hypocrisy: rules and red lines for others, but carte blanche for ourselves and our proxies. The dead in Mariupol and Bakhmut are the price of this arrogance, and we have the gall to call it defending freedom.

 

None of which excuses or justifies Putin's actions.

 

(Postscript: Apologies. I did not reply fully to you comment previously wrt the Nuland phone call. I have now edited my response).

29 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Not that old chestnut again? How many more times are Russian apologists going to suggest that a phone call between US diplomats proves that the US instigated the Maidan uprising? It is complete and utter nonsense. Of course, the US had a preference for who formed part of any subsequent Ukrainian government, but the fact is that the Maidan revolt was a popular uprising resulting from the then Ukrainian President, Yanukovych, under pressure from Moscow, refusing to enact the main pillar of the mandate - namely the EU - Ukraine Association Agreement - on which he was elected. The Ukrainian public refused to accept this complete volte-face, and rose up in protest. Anyone who does not acknowledge the timeline of events and these facts is delusional.

 

The bottom line is Russia should have stayed out of Ukraine both politically and physically. It is as simple as that and the person with blood on their hands is Vladimir Putin.

You know full well what those black and red flags in the crowd represent, and who was most active at Maidan in organizing, arming, and fighting. They weren't liberal flower-power draft dodgers like Jingthing claims he wasthey were hardened fascists with a visceral hatred of Russia, backed by football hooliganism and street violence. Any Western government would have crushed such violent demonstrations with ruthless efficiency, and any foreign politician coming to fan the flames would have been treated with righteous contempt or arrested and yes the US was pushing whatever buttons it could to try and bring about the outcome they preferred. It's not an old chestnut but an inconvenient truth just like the endemic corruption at the top and heart of the Ukraianian state something probably until recently you would have dismised as Kremlin talking points. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You know full well what those black and red flags in the crowd represent, and who was most active at Maidan in organizing, arming, and fighting. They weren't liberal flower-power draft dodgers like Jingthing claims he wasthey were hardened fascists with a visceral hatred of Russia, backed by football hooliganism and street violence. Any Western government would have crushed such violent demonstrations with ruthless efficiency, and any foreign politician coming to fan the flames would have been treated with righteous contempt or arrested and yes the US was pushing whatever buttons it could to try and bring about the outcome they preferred. It's not an old chestnut but an inconvenient truth just like the endemic corruption at the top and heart of the Ukraianian state something probably until recently you would have dismised as Kremlin talking points. 

 

 

Oh and by your logic the Januray 6th folks were justified as they didn't garee with the outcome of the election.There was a process the ballot box and Yanukovych tried to juggle the desire for indepenecne with a realisation of the inherent danger of Russia - I call that wise and cautious. But that's water under the bridge now sadly. 

1 hour ago, transam said:

Battlefield momentum, 4 years in the same area...........😄

Russia now controls 85% of the Donbas. That is not sitting still. Yes, it has taken a long time but as I've pointed out over and over again this war is not linear it's attritional. The capture of 20 km² in a day in this attritional trench and urban warfare is significant.

 

16 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

You know full well what those black and red flags in the crowd represent, and who was most active at Maidan in organizing, arming, and fighting. They weren't liberal flower-power draft dodgers like Jingthing claims he wasthey were hardened fascists with a visceral hatred of Russia, backed by football hooliganism and street violence. Any Western government would have crushed such violent demonstrations with ruthless efficiency, and any foreign politician coming to fan the flames would have been treated with righteous contempt or arrested and yes the US was pushing whatever buttons it could to try and bring about the outcome they preferred. It's not an old chestnut but an inconvenient truth just like the endemic corruption at the top and heart of the Ukraianian state something probably until recently you would have dismised as Kremlin talking points. 

 

 

 

All of which is completely irrelevant unless you think that (one of) Putin's "justifications" for his invasion I.e. the elimination of Nazis, lends some legitimacy to his actions.

 

I don't and it begs a number of other questions such as, 'Why didn't Putin firstly rid Russia of all her Nazis?'; 'Should other European nations expect Russia to helpfully rid them of any Nazis within their countries?', etc.

15 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Oh and by your logic the Januray 6th folks were justified as they didn't garee with the outcome of the election.There was a process the ballot box and Yanukovych tried to juggle the desire for indepenecne with a realisation of the inherent danger of Russia - I call that wise and cautious. But that's water under the bridge now sadly. 

 

Utter tosh.

 

The analogy with the events of January 6th is completely misplaced. That group refused to accept the results of an election; the Maidan protesters were objecting to the fact - as I said previously - that their President would not enact the core policy of the mandate on which he was elected.

 

Your attempt to excuse Yanukovych's volte face on the grounds that, " .. (he) tried to juggle the desire for indepenecne with a realisation of the inherent danger of Russia .." is telling and merely confirms what everyone knows i.e. that Russia was meddling in Ukraine's internal affairs.

3 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

All of which is completely irrelevant unless you think that (one of) Putin's "justifications" for his invasion I.e. the elimination of Nazis, lends some legitimacy to his actions.

 

I don't and it begs a number of other questions such as, 'Why didn't Putin firstly rid Russia of all her Nazis?'; 'Should other European nations expect Russia to helpfully rid them of any Nazis within their countries?', etc.

Ray, I genuinely like your posts they're intelligent, well-written, and come from a place of moral authority that's probably more centered than mine.
However, I've already pissed away far too much time on here this week when I should be packing for my annual pilgrimage to my favourite authoritarian military dictatorship, where I can enjoy 30-degree sunshine and £2 cocktails built on the sweaty backs of indentured peasants.
So I'm going to take the moral high ground......by coming to Thailand and practiisng my Russian with Ivan on the baht bus or Jomtien night market whilst celebrating the ice cold beauty of some of their wives from a safe distacne of course and unobserved by my missus.

 

I'll pass on this one.

34 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Ray, I genuinely like your posts they're intelligent, well-written, and come from a place of moral authority that's probably more centered than mine.
However, I've already pissed away far too much time on here this week when I should be packing for my annual pilgrimage to my favourite authoritarian military dictatorship, where I can enjoy 30-degree sunshine and £2 cocktails built on the sweaty backs of indentured peasants.
So I'm going to take the moral high ground......by coming to Thailand and practiisng my Russian with Ivan on the baht bus or Jomtien night market whilst celebrating the ice cold beauty of some of their wives from a safe distacne of course and unobserved by my missus.

 

I'll pass on this one.

 

We will probably never agree on this issue but thank you for your generous comment.

 

I understand what you mean about pissing away time on this forum. I should take a few weeks off but given that it is the UK budget today I will, no doubt, be drawn in discussion tomorrow (and that will be another day gone🤷).

 

I arrived in the LOS (Bangkok) last week. The weather is currently excellent and the pollution low. I show my solidarity with the Thai peasantry by dining at the more ramshackle establishments, although such places are rapidly disappearing due to the Bangkok Governor's insistence that everything be  gentrified. Ho hum, such is life.

 

Have fun.

Good luck with the "peace plan" as written by US diplomats.  Note the actual wording in the signed agreement, not the aspirational propaganda given as talking points to the media.

 

There is also an accompanying document related to security guarantees, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials. Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., told "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" on Sunday the document specifies that the U.S. intends to offer "security assurances" that she said are along the lines of Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which commits members to come to the defense of a NATO state that is attacked.

 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-peace-deal-trump-driscoll-abu-dhabi-talks-latest/

 

Way back when, the infamous Budapest memorandum promised Ukraine "security assurances", not "security guarantees."  Assurances are aspirational, whereas guarantees are legally binding.

 

The original text provided "guarantees", but that was deleted and replaced with "assurances" as demanded by the US delegation that did not want to be committed to future actions.

 

Also note that Article 5 of the NATO treaty does NOT commit members to anything.  Individual members "agree" that an attack on one is considered an attack on all, and "will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force,"

 

Define necessary.  Could be combat troops, could be supplies of wunderwaffles, could be a container of blankets, or could simply be a sternly-worded letter.  It could be nothing at all.  It's whatever they want it to be, depending on whether the member in question is a valuable part of NATO or simply a disposable vassal.

15 hours ago, dinsdale said:

Russia now controls 85% of the Donbas. That is not sitting still. Yes, it has taken a long time but as I've pointed out over and over again this war is not linear it's attritional. The capture of 20 km² in a day in this attritional trench and urban warfare is significant.

 

Hey, you really are struggling, WWI, 4 years, WWII, 6 years, Russia, trying to steal a small piece of land from Ukraine, 4 years..........🥴.........NOW COME ON, Dinsy..............🙄

18 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

It is a proxy war, and you’re right about that. But the bigger strategic loss is that the West has driven Russia and its sphere into a lasting alliance with a rising China when not long ago they were largely Europhilic. This has happened just as Western power begins its long, inevitable decline, pulling Iran, North Korea, and others into the same orbit and accelerating BRICS into a credible alternative to dollar hegemony.

 

Meanwhile, AI under Western capitalism is set to decimate domestic electorates enriching shareholders while hollowing out jobs on a scale we haven’t seen before. Authoritarian states, by contrast, can use AI to consolidate power and accelerate national development.

And the West’s geopolitical approach increasingly resembles prison logic: when you’re inside, you look for protection and try to curry favor with the boss of the strongest wing. In this case, the West assumed it would always be the dominant faction, even as its leverage eroded.

 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Ukraine might have been better off pivoting toward China as a protectorate rather than relying on a declining West.

 

Still blaming the west for the Russian aggression i see.

On 11/25/2025 at 2:46 PM, FlorC said:

Ok , further war to the last (willing) Ukranian.😄

 

Seems to me that someone (orgaization / country) will have to get very tough with Russia (maybe that means many very heavy bombings / missiles) over several weeks to get any progress with Russia.

 

Seems to me that right now russia is just continuing it's footsie games.

 

Also seems that trump is playing footsie also, so perhaps it needs the EU gang to get very very active. 

3 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

Seems to me that someone (orgaization / country) will have to get very tough with Russia (maybe that means many very heavy bombings / missiles) over several weeks to get any progress with Russia.

 

Seems to me that right now russia is just continuing it's footsie games.

 

Also seems that trump is playing footsie also, so perhaps it needs the EU gang to get very very active. 

Here fixed it for you. 

 

Mark Brolin - The cognitive bias that allows Putin’s crumbling regime to dominate the West
Future historians will wonder how Russia was able to intimidate the most powerful military alliance ever. The answer lies in psychology - DAILY TELEGRAPH

 

https://archive.ph/TgW4n 

 

That said, it won’t happen. European unity isn’t there, the economic firepower to make it happen quickly doesn’t exist, and electorates are demanding more benefits, lower taxes, and increased borrowing at a time when the capacity to borrow has vastly diminished. Fine words don’t butter any parsnips. Europe wants butter, not guns.

 

3 hours ago, stevenl said:

Still blaming the west for the Russian aggression i see.

There’s a well known joke about a tourist in Ireland who asks one of the locals for directions to Dublin. The Irishman replies: ‘Well sir, if I were you, I wouldn’t start from here’.

4 hours ago, scorecard said:

 

Seems to me that someone (orgaization / country) will have to get very tough with Russia (maybe that means many very heavy bombings / missiles) over several weeks to get any progress with Russia.

 

Seems to me that right now russia is just continuing it's footsie games.

 

Also seems that trump is playing footsie also, so perhaps it needs the EU gang to get very very active. 

 

why the thumbs down? Please share your thinking.

19 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

Here fixed it for you. 

 

Mark Brolin - The cognitive bias that allows Putin’s crumbling regime to dominate the West
Future historians will wonder how Russia was able to intimidate the most powerful military alliance ever. The answer lies in psychology - DAILY TELEGRAPH

 

https://archive.ph/TgW4n 

 

That said, it won’t happen. European unity isn’t there, the economic firepower to make it happen quickly doesn’t exist, and electorates are demanding more benefits, lower taxes, and increased borrowing at a time when the capacity to borrow has vastly diminished. Fine words don’t butter any parsnips. Europe wants butter, not guns.

 

 

There's also the point that many EU politicians, leaders and citizens fear their country could be next if putin wind Ukraine.

5 minutes ago, scorecard said:

 

There's also the point that many EU politicians, leaders and citizens fear their country could be next if putin wind Ukraine.

This argument is plainly false. While Vladimir Putin declared in 2022 that he had annexed four Ukrainian oblasts Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Moscow never gained full control of any of them. Despite repeated offensives, Russian forces have struggled significantly limited gains have come at substantial cost, and their hold over territory remains much weaker than the annexation rhetoric suggests. 
So it’s fair to argue Russia is economically and militarily drained. Russian military setbacks and high equipment and personnel losses undermine its long-term capacity. At the same time, the notion that deploying troops from NATO on the ground will deter or defeat Moscow isn’t so cut-and-dried. Russian officials have explicitly warned that Western military intervention could trigger nuclear escalation. 
If NATO boots went in, there's a much heightened  risk of escalation potentially even involving tactical nuclear weapons .

 

Besides which given the recent bombshell reveleatuons of endemic corruption in ther Office the President there is zero appetite in the wetern electorate apart from those perched on safe bar stools far from the fight to get stick in. 

Well worth a watch - of course this was way back before Bahkmut fell and most soliders were volunteers not conscripts forced off the street. 

 

 

I'm trying to find this - god knows what happneed to him it won't have been good. Meanwhile we have drag time story time. Quite the difference. 

 

 

Reality - the SMO will be fought to the end on the battlefield.  NATO states will insist that "Ukraine is winning the war" and that "Russia is losing the war" until Russia is on the West bank of the Dnieper and the AFU surrenders.
Other than that, it's best to just ignore the rhetoric and hyperbole coming out of the Western media.  As Lavrov, Peskov, Ushakov, and other Russian diplomats have stated, this isn't going to be won through the media.  The media is irrelevant. It's best just to turn the noise off and wait for the "facts on the ground" to lead to an actually end of fighting.  Then you'll know for sure. Until then?  Game On..........

Zelenskyy taking a selfie in front of the next Ukrainian city to fall.  Call it, "The Zelenskyy Curse."

 

 

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This argument is plainly false. While Vladimir Putin declared in 2022 that he had annexed four Ukrainian oblasts Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Moscow never gained full control of any of them. Despite repeated offensives, Russian forces have struggled significantly limited gains have come at substantial cost, and their hold over territory remains much weaker than the annexation rhetoric suggests. 
So it’s fair to argue Russia is economically and militarily drained. Russian military setbacks and high equipment and personnel losses undermine its long-term capacity. At the same time, the notion that deploying troops from NATO on the ground will deter or defeat Moscow isn’t so cut-and-dried. Russian officials have explicitly warned that Western military intervention could trigger nuclear escalation. 
If NATO boots went in, there's a much heightened  risk of escalation potentially even involving tactical nuclear weapons .

 

Besides which given the recent bombshell reveleatuons of endemic corruption in ther Office the President there is zero appetite in the wetern electorate apart from those perched on safe bar stools far from the fight to get stick in. 

 

2 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

This argument is plainly false. While Vladimir Putin declared in 2022 that he had annexed four Ukrainian oblasts Donetsk Oblast, Luhansk Oblast, Kherson Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast Moscow never gained full control of any of them. Despite repeated offensives, Russian forces have struggled significantly limited gains have come at substantial cost, and their hold over territory remains much weaker than the annexation rhetoric suggests. 
So it’s fair to argue Russia is economically and militarily drained. Russian military setbacks and high equipment and personnel losses undermine its long-term capacity. At the same time, the notion that deploying troops from NATO on the ground will deter or defeat Moscow isn’t so cut-and-dried. Russian officials have explicitly warned that Western military intervention could trigger nuclear escalation. 
If NATO boots went in, there's a much heightened  risk of escalation potentially even involving tactical nuclear weapons .

 

Besides which given the recent bombshell reveleatuons of endemic corruption in ther Office the President there is zero appetite in the wetern electorate apart from those perched on safe bar stools far from the fight to get stick in. 

Some nice points, however I still believe the EU countries could add to Zelenskies 'arsenal', and the time could well come where the EU get very afraid themselves of being attacked. 

 

It seems to me that Russia will make a lot of noise about using nuclear weapons but if they did send nuclear weapons into Ukraine then the west would respond (they have to respond) and this possibly frigtens russia a lot, and attack Russia with Nuclear weapons. And if that happened it would expose even more that Ruaais'a defense (hardware and men) is now very depleted. 

 

Where does trump fit into all of this? Where does a loudmoth idiotic clown fit into anything? He keeps changing his comments / his supposed love of putin / russia / Zalensky-Ukraineand.

 

Therefore I suggest there must come a time when the EU and more ignore trump, who regardless of all his spoken bluster really hasn't achieved anything for Ukraine and seems to portray a picture of to some extent supporting russia. 

 

Also seems there a chance at the next US mid-term elections trump could lose. Hope it happens for many reasons. 

My position has always been: what outcome is most likely given reality, and what course of action minimises suffering?

Given Russia's historical appetite for prolonged, brutal conflicts, Europe's effective disarmament and lack of public willingness to spend significantly more, Trump's probable mortal wounding of NATO as a unified force, Ukraine's complicated and bloody history plus endemic corruption, and the West's depletion of spare equipment and munitions, the only pragmatic solution is to accept the de facto territorial situation and attempt to consolidate what remains into a viable state.

Russia's aggression has "won" territory through force. Maximalist positions demanding complete restoration of pre-2014 borders only prolong the agony and suffering on both sides, ultimately demonstrating the madness of human conflict rather than vindicating moral certainties. The most moral position available given these constraints is the one that stops the killing soonest whilst preserving Ukrainian viability.
I believed this from day one. The Istanbul negotiations, for all their limitations and difficulties, offered a path. Instead, ultra-nationalists aided by Boris Johnson and others encouraged an unsustainable position of "fight on." Now millions lie dead and wounded, and everybody has lost. Western moral cheerleaders the NAFO brigades and the restand Zelensky, feted by parliaments around the world, didn't ultimately help Ukraine except onto its destruction.

 

Like Cassandra on the city walls of Troy, I spoke an unwelcome truth and was reviled and ignored for it. Being proven right brings no satisfaction only the bitter vindication of watching preventable tragedy unfold exactly as predicted.

4 hours ago, connda said:

Reality - the SMO will be fought to the end on the battlefield.  NATO states will insist that "Ukraine is winning the war" and that "Russia is losing the war" until Russia is on the West bank of the Dnieper and the AFU surrenders.
Other than that, it's best to just ignore the rhetoric and hyperbole coming out of the Western media.  As Lavrov, Peskov, Ushakov, and other Russian diplomats have stated, this isn't going to be won through the media.  The media is irrelevant. It's best just to turn the noise off and wait for the "facts on the ground" to lead to an actually end of fighting.  Then you'll know for sure. Until then?  Game On..........

The lies, propaganda , half truths and omissions from the west helped to shape narratives in the early days. Probably the only truth teller in this bloody potage was Prizoghin who died for his sins. 

 

 

 

On 11/25/2025 at 3:53 AM, dinsdale said:

Agree. The EU is more about weakening Russia than saving Ukraine. If the war continues, which is likely, it will end in victory for one side and defeat for the other. As it is Russia continues it's move toward the Dnipro River which is where IMO the battleline will be halted in the coming years. Indeed Zaporizhzhia located on the Dnipro may well fall in 6 months from now. The ground that Zelensky cannot give to the Russians will eventually be taken. This is reality not some pro-Russian talking point.

 

There will be no victory for Russia. Even if Russia manages to occupy Ukraine, it will be a costly and deadly occupation. Economic sanctions would continue. Did Russia hold Afghanistan? Was the Russian occupation of eastern Europe sustainable?

Trump is playing with fire and this will be his undoing. At some point someone is going to connect the dots linking Trump to the Russians possessing incriminating information and documentation.

3 hours ago, Patong2021 said:

 

There will be no victory for Russia. Even if Russia manages to occupy Ukraine, it will be a costly and deadly occupation. Economic sanctions would continue. Did Russia hold Afghanistan? Was the Russian occupation of eastern Europe sustainable?

Trump is playing with fire and this will be his undoing. At some point someone is going to connect the dots linking Trump to the Russians possessing incriminating information and documentation.

IMO Putin will stop at the Dnipro as I said above. Once Huliaipole is taken (the battle for Huliople is now underway) Russian forces only have to move a further 30 km west for Zaporizhzhia to be in FPV drone range. Russian forces are now only 20 km from the southern outskirts of Zap. Within the next 6 months the southern sector of the front will look something like this (see map). This will mean the eastern sector of Zap will need to be evacuated and resuply will become difficult. I stated in a previous post that the eastern sector of Zap will fall within 12 months and I stand by this. Undoubtedly I will get thumbs down and laughing emojis for this but there's not a lot of defensive lines west of Huliople so this scenario is not only possible but likely.

 

 

4 hours ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The lies, propaganda , half truths and omissions

This continues today and is eagarly consumed by some on here. Here are two maps of the Pokrovsk (basically fully controlled) and Myrnohrad (now it seems physically surrounded) region. The DeepState map (Ukrainiane MOD) hasn't been updated for three days and even three days ago it wasn't showing the reality of the situation. IMO it hasn't been updated because of propaganda purposes. This is a mistake as sooner or later the actual situation will need to be released.

 https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/48.2932896/37.1826293

https://t.me/s/suriyak_maps?before=8089

 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

This continues today and is eagarly consumed by some on here. Here are two maps of the Pokrovsk (basically fully controlled) and Myrnohrad (now it seems physically surrounded) region. The DeepState map (Ukrainiane MOD) hasn't been updated for three days and even three days ago it wasn't showing the reality of the situation. IMO it hasn't been updated because of propaganda purposes. This is a mistake as sooner or later the actual situation will need to be released.

 https://deepstatemap.live/en#11/48.2932896/37.1826293

https://t.me/s/suriyak_maps?before=8089

 

 

 

 

I'm not someone who can read military maps I find them too difficult to master but I understand you need to examine a wide variety of sources and make considered judgments alongside other information to make sense of complex situations.
What alarms me is the shift in Western-aligned media. The fact that they're now prepared to report setbacks, harsh realities on the ground, and corruption at the highest echelons of Ukrainian command suggests to me that the ground is moving beneath our feet that we may be approaching the end, or at least the beginning of the end.I don't expect escalation from Europe. Their role, and they know it, is to shape the narrative so any outcome looks like structured restructuring rather than surrender.

 

13 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm not someone who can read military maps I find them too difficult to master but I understand you need to examine a wide variety of sources and make considered judgments alongside other information to make sense of complex situations.
What alarms me is the shift in Western-aligned media. The fact that they're now prepared to report setbacks, harsh realities on the ground, and corruption at the highest echelons of Ukrainian command suggests to me that the ground is moving beneath our feet that we may be approaching the end, or at least the beginning of the end.I don't expect escalation from Europe. Their role, and they know it, is to shape the narrative so any outcome looks like structured restructuring rather than surrender.

 

Though this chap is brilliant with maps and geolocating vides and echoes what you say and he mentions in the video even David Axe is alarmed. 

 

https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/11/27/russian-bmp-in-pokrovsk/

 

That's an ominous development for the handful of elite Ukrainian units clinging to a few fighting positions on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk—and an equally ominous development for the Ukrainian troops still fighting in neighboring Myrnohrad, pre-war population 46,000.

That's because the Ukrainian positions in Pokrovsk anchor the left side of a narrow corridor, perhaps just 1 km wide, that represents the only relatively safe way out of Myrnohrad, which is currently surrounded on three sides by the Russian Center Group of Forces.

 

With each passing day, there are more Russians in Pokrovsk—and they have more tanks and fighting vehicles to lend them heavy firepower. By contrast, there's no evidence the Ukrainian units dug in in northern Pokrovsk, including the 425th Assault Regiment, have much or any armor.

If and when the Russians move to eject the last Ukrainians from Pokrovsk, they could have a serious firepower advantage. That should serve as a warning to the Ukrainians in Myrnohrad: to get out while they can.

 

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I'm not someone who can read military maps I find them too difficult to master but I understand you need to examine a wide variety of sources and make considered judgments alongside other information to make sense of complex situations.
What alarms me is the shift in Western-aligned media. The fact that they're now prepared to report setbacks, harsh realities on the ground, and corruption at the highest echelons of Ukrainian command suggests to me that the ground is moving beneath our feet that we may be approaching the end, or at least the beginning of the end.I don't expect escalation from Europe. Their role, and they know it, is to shape the narrative so any outcome looks like structured restructuring rather than surrender.

 

A good post. You are correct.