Germany’s military leadership are  preparing for the possible Russian attacking by 2029

 

Germany’s government and military leadership are openly preparing for the possibility that Russia could be capable of attacking NATO territory by 2029, a scenario once dismissed as alarmist but now treated as a hard strategic deadline. As Moscow’s full-scale war in Ukraine grinds on with no end in sight, Berlin has been forced into a historic rethink of its defence posture, budget, and industrial base — a “Zeitenwende” that is rapidly accelerating.

 

For decades, Germany relied on the twin assumptions that Russia posed no near-term threat and that the United States would always stand as Europe’s security guarantor. Both pillars are now wobbling. Russia’s maximalist territorial ambitions in Ukraine and the steady shrinking of U.S.–German defence engagement have jolted Europe awake. German officers now report that communication with their American counterparts — once constant — has sharply deteriorated, raising fears of a more isolationist or unpredictable U.S. role inside NATO.

 

Against this backdrop, Berlin has set an explicit target: the Bundeswehr must be “war-ready” by 2029. Defence spending is already on track to rise to nearly €153 billion by that year — around 3.5% of GDP — in what would be Germany’s largest military expansion since the Cold War. The deadline is rooted in a 2023 NATO Joint Threat Assessment, which concluded that Russia could rebuild, rearm, and deploy a fully equipped 1.5-million-strong force within three to five years. That put the earliest window at 2028.

 

Internal German analysis later revealed that the intelligence was partly outdated, but political leaders kept the date — privately amending the language to the vaguer “by the end of the decade” to avoid public panic. Bundeswehr Inspector General Carsten Breuer emphasised that 2029 was not “made up”: it marks the point at which Russia may regain the capacity for large-scale war, not necessarily the likelihood that it will launch one.

 

Still, the strategic stakes are grave. A Russia capable of attacking NATO territory — even if it chooses not to — forces Europe to rapidly re-arm and rebuild deterrence. Germany has therefore embarked on a sweeping overhaul: modernising its forces, expanding industrial output, and raising troop numbers. The Bundeswehr currently fields just over 181,000 active soldiers but aims to reach roughly 203,000. To fill the gap, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government has reinstated voluntary military service. All young men born in 2008 or later must respond to conscription letters, while women may volunteer. If recruitment targets aren’t met, compulsory service could follow.

 

Germany’s urgency reflects a broader shift within NATO. With Washington’s strategic attention divided and its political commitment uncertain, Europe can no longer assume automatic U.S. intervention in a future crisis. That reality, combined with Russia’s rapid militarisation, underpins the 2029 warning: it is the year Europe must be able to defend itself — with or without America.

 

There is no consensus that Russia will attack. But the consensus that it could — and that Europe must plan accordingly — has now become German military doctrine.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

1. Germany is racing to make the Bundeswehr “war-ready” by 2029, fearing Russia could regain capacity for a large-scale attack on NATO.

2. A 2023 NATO threat assessment suggested Russia could mobilise a 1.5-million-strong, fully equipped army by 2028–2029.

3. With U.S.–German defence ties weakening, Europe is being forced to rebuild its own deterrence, increase defence spending, and re-expand troop numbers.

 

SOURCE: Euronews

 

 

 

 

 

 

Putin said just the other day that

whilst not wanting war with Europe he is fully prepared for it.

Seems that certain Euro leaders are hell bent on war with Russia no matter what...Germany, France,UK being the most vocal..all trying to restore military conscription..France saying that the citizens should be willing to sacrifice their children in war against Russia...quite insane but that's the mind set.

Sounds like a wise move, there's no question that there are few limits on Putin's ambitions, and they likely include the conquest of Europe. 

the baltic states had a good reason to join NATO asap, they are next in line

35 minutes ago, johng said:

Putin said just the other day that

whilst not wanting war with Europe he is fully prepared for it.

Seems that certain Euro leaders are hell bent on war with Russia no matter what...Germany, France,UK being the most vocal..all trying to restore military conscription..France saying that the citizens should be willing to sacrifice their children in war against Russia...quite insane but that's the mind set.

Suuure! Putin must seriously prepare Russia to confront an invasion by NATO! 🤣🤣🤣

Surely, Putin would have to invade Germany via Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia or another route, not Germany directly? For a missile war, a ground army will not help much. I don't see that warning Russia you are preparing for war is going to calm Russia at all.

Unlike the Yanks who want to appease Putin Europe will not stand up to a bully like Putin if he wants a war he must finish Ukraine 1st and he is struggleing defeating them, let alone taking on Nato. If Putin wants to wave a sick about we in Europe will have the baseball Bat at hand if he wants a go.

I Russia was going to attack it would have done it already, why would they wait til Europe rearms, and what benefit would it achieve, western Europe has been decaying for decades, it simply is broke with a welfare system it can not afford, the last straw was cutting off cheap Russian energy, all down hill, but you need an enemy to blame everything on

Putin is full of sht. He cant even defeat Ukraine let alone take on Nato. 

15 minutes ago, advancebooking said:

He cant even defeat Ukraine let alone take on Nato. 

He has effectively taken on NATO  in a proxy war  while not even trying to defeat Ukraine  merely taking the Russian speaking regions

as set out in the beginning of the offensive...as things have progressed I  think Putin has seen the need to push further into Ukraine to secure a  buffer zone  perhaps stopping at the Dnieper river  but who knows if NATO keeps prodding  maybe he will take the whole country..

Is NATO willing to go into a  non NATO country and try to push the Russains out   are they even capable of doing that ?  

Germany, the EU, and NATO are preparing for a Russian retaliation for a NATO country attack on Russia by 2029.  

It's really amazing.  The West can help itself.  "We must prepare for war with Russia and China!," because.....they are going to provoke a reaction out of Russia and China.
The West falls over themselves in their constant warnings about the West being at war with Russia and China by 2030.  Well, now you know what to expect from the West.
War, war, war, war, and forever war.  A Taurus missile hits the Kremlin and then Germany whines that an Oreshnik hits the The Bundestag.  Europeans have nothing but war in their blood. Putin basically said yesterday that as he has said many times in the past, Russia has no intention of striking or invading Europe.  But?  Strike Russia first - FAFO.

3 minutes ago, connda said:

Germany, the EU, and NATO are preparing for a Russian retaliation for a NATO country attack on Russia by 2029.  

It's really amazing.  The West can help itself.  "We must prepare for war with Russia and China!," because.....they are going to provoke a reaction out of Russia and China.
The West falls over themselves in their constant warnings about the West being at war with Russia and China by 2030.  Well, now you know what to expect from the West.
War, war, war, war, and forever war. 

So you reckon sit back as the west did in the 1930's, and look what happened................🙄

5 minutes ago, connda said:

It's really amazing.  The West can help itself.  "We must prepare for war with Russia and China!," because.....they are going to provoke a reaction out of Russia and China.

Yes it is amazing..instead of saying lets all get on with each other trade innovate and make things better for everyone  they insist on war which makes things bad for most everyone except  those few war mongers invested in the MIC.

Just now, johng said:

Yes it is amazing..instead of saying lets all get on with each other trade innovate and make things better for everyone  they insist on war which makes things bad for most everyone except  those few war mongers invested in the MIC.

You haven't heard of the latest Russian communist bloke Putin then, who invades and murders civilians............😬

Strange that..........

33 minutes ago, howerde said:

I Russia was going to attack it would have done it already, why would they wait til Europe rearms, and what benefit would it achieve, western Europe has been decaying for decades, it simply is broke with a welfare system it can not afford, the last straw was cutting off cheap Russian energy, all down hill, but you need an enemy to blame everything on

As long as Russia is involved in assaulting Ukraine, it has no resources available to attack other countries. Actually, even if there is a peace deal, as long as Ukraine is able to counter-attack, Russia cannot attack another country. That's one reason why Russia insist on limiting Ukraine's military power and annexing the fortress cities in Donbas (the other being that it would make it easier to attack Ukraine again.

 

If I remember well, NATO scenarios of a possible Russian attack are for 2029.

The course of the war in Ukraine demonstrates how vulnerable a country and its infrastructure can be, even far behind the front lines – by relatively inexpensive drones, but also by ballistic missiles.

 

European states have long neglected and reduced the defense of military and civilian targets against aerial attacks since the end of the Cold War. NATO planning circles recently indicated that overall defense capabilities against air attacks would likely need to be increased by 400 percent.

 

The German government is now investing more heavily in air defense. Germany has also launched an initiative for a European air defense system (European Sky Shield Initiative/ESSI). Twenty-three partner states have now joined the project.

 

Arrow 3 Intercepts Missiles at Extreme Altitudes

 

Arrow 3 was jointly developed by Israel and the USA. The "Arrow" can destroy enemy missiles outside the atmosphere in near-space with a direct hit. The system thus forms the top layer of a defense system.

 

The Israeli armed forces are calling it the largest arms deal in Israel's history. The German armed forces are investing 3.6 billion euros in the system, which is being deployed outside of Israel for the first time.

 

 

Better chance of success to attack before Trump leave office. Trump may even support Russia. By 2029, Nato will again be united with a Democratic President in US. The combined Nato military active force and aircrafts will dwarfed Russia. With the new Nato members of Sweden, Finland and UKraine, Russia stand no chance and it will be armageddon for the country if they attack. 

1 hour ago, candide said:

Suuure! Putin must seriously prepare Russia to confront an invasion by NATO! 🤣🤣🤣

 

You're darn tootin'!

 

"Not an inch to the East" is as valid today as..........oh.

 

Never mind.

1 hour ago, advancebooking said:

Putin is full of sht. He cant even defeat Ukraine let alone take on Nato. 

 

What is the gas station with an embassy gonna do?

 

Clean our windshields and punch our S&H green stamp booklets?

16 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

Better chance of success to attack before Trump leave office. Trump may even support Russia. By 2029, Nato will again be united with a Democratic President in US. The combined Nato military active force and aircrafts will dwarfed Russia. With the new Nato members of Sweden, Finland and UKraine, Russia stand no chance and it will be armageddon for the country if they attack. 

"Nato will again be united with a Democratic President in US" That has got to be a joke. Under a Democratic President the gender confused with again be promoted to unattainable positions that history has allowed. This will weaken the cohesiveness of the military and degrade it just like Biden did. No real man or women will want to serve under these gender confused individuals. Nato will go it on their own as the U.S. military will be a laughing stock.  

3 minutes ago, dutch boy said:

"Nato will again be united with a Democratic President in US" That has got to be a joke. Under a Democratic President the gender confused with again be promoted to unattainable positions that history has allowed. This will weaken the cohesiveness of the military and degrade it just like Biden did. No real man or women will want to serve under these gender confused individuals. Nato will go it on their own as the U.S. military will be a laughing stock.  

I would have thought that those who put their lives on the line for you, should not be ridiculed by those who think that they themselves are the perfect. ones............

11 minutes ago, dutch boy said:

"Nato will again be united with a Democratic President in US" That has got to be a joke. Under a Democratic President the gender confused with again be promoted to unattainable positions that history has allowed. This will weaken the cohesiveness of the military and degrade it just like Biden did. No real man or women will want to serve under these gender confused individuals. Nato will go it on their own as the U.S. military will be a laughing stock.  

 

US military has historically been strong with policies and initiatives related to gender, diversity and equity. Trump reshaping of the military has weakened the military cohesiveness and morale. Got worse by appointing the incompetent and inexperience Fox week-end anchor as Secretary of War. Now the world is laughing at the US military lead by buffoons. 

1 hour ago, advancebooking said:

Putin is full of sht. He cant even defeat Ukraine let alone take on Nato. 

Firstly, the article is misleading as it says 'could' and not 'will'. There is a huge difference.  That aside, he has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and his threats are nuclear and not conventional. Without this he would never have invaded Ukraine to begin with. It was always his insurance, as a nuclear power can never really be completely defeated or coerced into doing something it does not want to. A fact well understood by Kim Jong Un and the Iranian theocracy. That's why Ukraine"s maximalist demands have always been delusional. It is highly unlikely he would ever attack a NATO country directly with conventional forces, despite Zelensky and Kallas's flawed self-serving rhetoric, and no amount of conventional rearmament and 'conscription' by the west will nullify the nuclear threat. It is widely understood  that there can never be a conventional war between two nuclear armed combatants as it would eventually turn nuclear. The doctrine Of Mutually Assured Destruction has served its purpose well, up to now. Western military leaders know this, but now openly talk about it been a likely possibility. It is pure madness.  When the silos open what will these conscripts do? 

IMHO the core motivation behind the "call to arms" rhetoric has less to do with the speculative risk of aggression from Putin than to do with the stagnant economies of Europe  and the US.

There are many factors to the advantage of these collective allies in responding to assumed threats created to provoke Putin initially.

Now that the NATO nations have emptied their dusty cold war era military hardware into a proxy war decimating the population of Ukraine, under the rule of a US installed puppet who has cut enough strings so as to ad lib much of the script in the final scenes, serious attention by the increasingly unwilling factions of the willing has turned to resurrection the industrial base which lulled and deteriorated in the inconvenient ere of relative global peace.

Associated objections by the militarily focused strategists over "green energy " "usurping " the dominance of so called fossil energy resources while never revealing the practicality of the objections . That being wind, solar, nuclear energy is static  while petroleum product to fuel a war machine is transportable. Cost has no relevance in the theatre of war for transfixed Generals.

Under the pretext of defense requiring dominance of gnorance by the masses dictated by propaganda is an imperative to enhance the fortunes of the bone spur brigade.

A war machine mandates no objections to deceitful objectives.

How many examples has the  world already witnessed ?

And yet there are some who still grunt Hoorah !

 

 

3 minutes ago, 0ffshore360 said:

serious attention by the increasingly unwilling factions of the willing has turned to resurrection the industrial base which lulled and deteriorated in the inconvenient ere of relative global peace.

 

They have decimated their industrial base  and imposed ludicrous net zero agendas making energy unaffordable..( + Nordstream)

have to import almost all raw materials as they closed down mining and refining   also told most of their workforce that they are non essential ( Covidiocy)  but now expect the population to pick up a gun and fight the Russians.....for what ???

The German military reported that the Americans have cut off all communications with them. It can be assumed that the Americans do not agree to attack Russia and that therefore the responsibility for their announced disaster will be theirs alone, and the European peoples will hold the current leaders to account.

 

We live in very dangerous times.

1 minute ago, BE88 said:

the responsibility for their announced disaster will be theirs alone, and the European peoples will hold the current leaders to account.

Hey here's a crazy idea  lets not attack Russia !!! 

4 hours ago, johng said:

Putin said just the other day that

whilst not wanting war with Europe he is fully prepared for it.

Seems that certain Euro leaders are hell bent on war with Russia no matter what...Germany, France,UK being the most vocal..all trying to restore military conscription..France saying that the citizens should be willing to sacrifice their children in war against Russia...quite insane but that's the mind set.

What are you talking about.  The only country attacking anyone in Europe is Russia. 

2 hours ago, johng said:

Is NATO willing to go into a  non NATO country and try to push the Russains out   are they even capable of doing that ?  

I think Europe should launch an air campain against Russian position in Ukraine.   

9 minutes ago, TedG said:

I think Europe should launch an air campain against Russian position in Ukraine.   

I think you want world war III....  maybe its for the best far too many useless eaters anyway  back to  500,000 elites  after they emerge from the bunkers  the world will be saved..for sure for sure no more climate change ..utopia guaranteed.