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Vietnam's Population to Peak by 2059 Amid Accelerating Aging

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Photo courtesy of VN Express
 

Vietnam's population is expected to peak around 2059, transitioning toward slower growth and demographic stability. This projection, based on recent census data, was announced at a workshop by the National Statistics Office and the UN Population Fund. The nation is preparing for rapid population aging, persistent gender imbalances, and changing migration trends.

 

In a medium-fertility scenario, Vietnam's population is anticipated to rise to approximately 114 million between 2024 and 2074. However, the end of the "golden population structure" in 2036 will lead to increased aging, affecting labor supply and health systems. Gender imbalances at birth are projected to persist, further skewing the population structure.

 

Urbanization is expected to decelerate as the urban population nears 50%, alongside a decrease in internal migration. The number of internal migrants fell from 6.4 million (2014–2019) to approximately 3.8 million (2019–2024), with most moving from city to city rather than returning to rural areas. Short-distance moves are increasing, indicating a preference for stability and reduced mobility costs.

 

Migration among ethnic groups has seen a slight decline, increasing their share of total migrants. This trend highlights early successes in job creation and development policies beyond city centers. However, challenges persist, with high illiteracy rates and multidimensional poverty among small ethnic groups due to early marriage and low education.

 

Improving education, particularly for girls, is deemed crucial for tackling poverty and early marriage among ethnic communities. More flexible policies tailored to the unique conditions of these groups are recommended. Overall, the findings emphasize the urgent need for Vietnam to strategically manage its demographic shifts to leverage its remaining demographic dividend, reported VN Express.

 

Key Takeaways

  • Vietnam's population is projected to peak by 2059, followed by an aging phase.
  • Internal migration is declining, reflecting stable and cost-conscious residential moves.
  • Education is key to addressing poverty and early marriage among ethnic groups.

 

Click here for more Vietnam stories

 

 

image.png  Adapted by ASEAN Now from VN Express 2025-12-29

 

 

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