On Saturday, February 22, President Trump announced the introduction of a new flat rate of 10%, only to change his mind a few hours later and increase it to 15%.

The reiteration of the tariffs comes despite several polls showing that the overwhelming majority of Americans disapprove of the introduction of punitive tariffs on imported products.

A poll by Fox News, perhaps the most pro-Trump of all the MSM, showed that 63% of Americans disapproved of the tariffs even before the Supreme Court ruling was announced.

As always with trade policy changes, there are winners and losers. The map below, published by the NYT, shows which countries are poised to benefit from the 15% flat tariff and which will have to resign themselves to being penalized. These include the United Kingdom, Australia and the Russian Federation, which enjoyed preferential treatment under the previous regime and are now aligned with the rest of the world.

However, the new tariff does not apply to all imported goods. 51% of goods are exempt from duty. The president has carved out exceptions for certain products and countries, while promising additional tariffs on the horizon. Only 25% of US imports are impacted by the Supreme Court ruling.

The result however is a fast-shifting patchwork of trade policies, which includes a roster of other import taxes that apply to foreign steel, lumber, cars and other goods on national security grounds.

Due to the uncertainty caused by constant policy changes and its unpopularity among the American public, it is far from clear how much the business community will be willing to invest in on-shoring, with the risk that, following a further policy change, investments made to bring industrial production back to the United States will become stranded assets.

Uncertainty is investors' worst enemy, who demand high premiums to cover the risks that uncertainty creates. And in just 13 months in office, the Trump administration has caused levels of uncertainty the United States has not known since the 19th century Civil War.

The price the American economy will have to pay for this mismanagement is not yet clear. But the question is not if but when the bill will be paid. If Republicans are lucky, the bill will only be due during the next administration.

This is what has already happened with inflation, which exploded during the Biden administration but was caused by the uncontrolled printing of banknotes that began right under the first Trump administration, with the $2 trillion stimulus generously disbursed at the expense of the American taxpayer.

Does anyone still remember the check Donald Trump signed?

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