Canada welcomed the US Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Donald Trump's global tariffs, though celebrations were brief. These tariffs, including those related to fentanyl impacting Canada, China, and Mexico, were deemed "unjustified," according to Canada's Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc.

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LeBlanc emphasized ongoing challenges, particularly concerning tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles, which Trump intends to maintain. He also highlighted the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement (USMCA), a crucial part of the North American trade landscape involving over 500 million people.

The Supreme Court's ruling has limited impact on Canadian tariffs, as 85% of trade under these "fentanyl" tariffs was already exempt due to USMCA. However, Canada's position on new 10% global tariffs, which Trump plans to raise to 15%, remains cautious.

Despite the new global tariffs, the White House confirmed that USMCA exemptions will continue. Beyond tariffs, the USMCA review presents a key issue. Discussions must occur this summer to decide on extending the deal, first established in the early 1990s. While integrated economies have benefited, there are uncertainties.

During a visit to Mexico, LeBlanc reaffirmed commitment to the trilateral trade agreement. However, the Trump administration has shown interest in bilateral deals instead of renewing USMCA.

LeBlanc plans to meet US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to progress on review talks before the July 1 deadline. This marks the first formal trade discussion after a hiatus last October, stemming from a Canadian ad opposing tariffs.

Greer noted challenges in negotiations with Canada compared to Mexico, citing trade barriers like restrictions on US wine and spirits and irritants such as Canada’s Online Streaming Act, affecting US media companies.

Amidst negotiations, Canada is diversifying trade beyond the US, which currently accounts for 75% of its exports, with ambitions to double non-US exports by 2035.

Canadian business leaders maintain that uncertainty persists. Dennis Darby, CEO of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters, emphasized the importance of a successful USMCA renewal to prevent trade disruptions, advocating for predictable, rules-based trade on both sides of the border.

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 21 Feb 2026

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The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs is obviously going to generate political noise on both sides of the border, but the bigger picture is that Canada–U.S. trade is deeply interdependent.

If Trump decides to push tariff policy too far, the U.S. would be exposed in several areas that rarely get mentioned in the headlines.

1. Timber and lumber flows southbound

The U.S. construction industry relies heavily on Canadian softwood lumber. Canada supplies a major share of U.S. imports, and American homebuilding costs spike every time there’s a dispute.

If Canada ever decided to respond aggressively to U.S. tariffs, restricting or slowing timber exports would immediately hit U.S. housing affordability and supply chains.

2. Oil and fuel logistics through Canada

People forget that a significant amount of Alaskan oil moves through Canada by pipeline and road en route to U.S. refineries in the lower 48. Any disruption, whether political or regulatory, would complicate energy flows and raise costs for U.S. states that depend on that infrastructure.

Canada doesn’t need to “weaponize” this, but the leverage exists.

3. U.S. military and commercial overflights

American aircraft routinely overfly Canadian airspace, including military flights heading to Europe and the Arctic. If relations ever deteriorated to the point where Canada tightened or reviewed overflight permissions, it would create logistical headaches for the Pentagon and commercial airlines alike.

Again, not something Canada is threatening, but Trump needs to be aware that cooperation is mutually beneficial.

So while the tariff ruling may look like a win forTrump in the short term, the reality is that both countries rely on each other in ways that make prolonged trade conflict costly.

Canada’s reaction may be “mixed,” but the structural interdependence hasn’t changed. Any escalation would hurt both sides, and arguably the U.S. has more to lose in certain strategic sectors!

Frankly the whole mess is going to continue, twists and turns, no matter what the Supreme Court orders. Canada, and the rest of us, realise that we will continue in this twighlight zone until Trump finishes his term.

12 hours ago, JAG said:

we will continue in this twighlight zone until Trump finishes his term.

It seems increasingly likely that that happens sometime this year.

A world class financial technocrat versus a village idiot. Not a fair fight.

On 2/22/2026 at 11:10 AM, ASEAN NOW News said:

Canada's position on new 10% global tariffs, which Trump plans to raise to 15%, remains cautious.

A proper precaution.

The SCOTUS held Trump's tariffs are taxes and illegal only because he had to get US Congressional approval. Trump otherwise does not have unitary authority (ie., as a king) to assess taxes on the American people and businesses.

As MAGA controls the Senate one would think Trump would have no problem getting such authorization.

BUT.

A simple majority will not pass any tariff legislation. While not in the Constitution, a U.S. Senate filibuster is a procedural tactic that can be used by currently Democrats and any GOP alliances to delay or block a vote on legislation by extending debate, requiring a 60-vote super-majority (cloture) to move forward to passing legislation.

On 2/22/2026 at 5:39 AM, Jim Waldron said:

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs is obviously going to generate political noise on both sides of the border, but the bigger picture is that Canada–U.S. trade is deeply interdependent.

If Trump decides to push tariff policy too far, the U.S. would be exposed in several areas that rarely get mentioned in the headlines.

1. Timber and lumber flows southbound

The U.S. construction industry relies heavily on Canadian softwood lumber. Canada supplies a major share of U.S. imports, and American homebuilding costs spike every time there’s a dispute.

If Canada ever decided to respond aggressively to U.S. tariffs, restricting or slowing timber exports would immediately hit U.S. housing affordability and supply chains.

2. Oil and fuel logistics through Canada

People forget that a significant amount of Alaskan oil moves through Canada by pipeline and road en route to U.S. refineries in the lower 48. Any disruption, whether political or regulatory, would complicate energy flows and raise costs for U.S. states that depend on that infrastructure.

Canada doesn’t need to “weaponize” this, but the leverage exists.

3. U.S. military and commercial overflights

American aircraft routinely overfly Canadian airspace, including military flights heading to Europe and the Arctic. If relations ever deteriorated to the point where Canada tightened or reviewed overflight permissions, it would create logistical headaches for the Pentagon and commercial airlines alike.

Again, not something Canada is threatening, but Trump needs to be aware that cooperation is mutually beneficial.

So while the tariff ruling may look like a win forTrump in the short term, the reality is that both countries rely on each other in ways that make prolonged trade conflict costly.

Canada’s reaction may be “mixed,” but the structural interdependence hasn’t changed. Any escalation would hurt both sides, and arguably the U.S. has more to lose in certain strategic sectors!

Jim:

There is no Alaska oil being shipped by pipeline through Canada no such pipeline exists

All Alaska oil is sent by pipeline to Valdez and then into VLCC to the south

Transportation | ConocoPhillips Alaska

ConocoPhillips Alaska utilizes a complex system of pipelines to transport crude oil from the North Slope to the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS) and then to Valdez. Once the crude reaches Valdez, tanker vessels owned and operated by Polar Tankers Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of ConocoPhillips, safely transport the oil to market. The company emphasizes safety as its top priority, ensuring the well-being of the public, employees, contractors, the environment, and assets.

Wikip

https://th.bing.com/th/id/ODL.d93348879b510aab158023ef41fe427d?w=310&h=198&c=7&rs=1&bgcl=ffff14&r=0&o=6&pid=AlgoBlockDebug

FYI

I’d like to correct a previous statement I made regarding Alaskan oil logistics.

Thank you to Cave Johnson for pointing out that North Slope oil is shipped from Valdez to U.S. refineries by maritime tanker.