Oil prices are expected to jump sharply when markets reopen, as the US-Israel war with Iran and the effective closure of the strait of Hormuz unsettle global investors despite pledges from major producers to raise output.

US crude is on track to rise about 11% when trading resumes in New York, according to data from IG, potentially climbing above $74 a barrel from $67 on Friday. That would mark its highest level since June 2025, when the US launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The move comes even after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to increase output by more than expected as it assessed the impact of the conflict.

Get the latest headlines in your email

Strait of Hormuz disruption

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reportedly told ships on Saturday that passage through the strait of Hormuz was prohibited, effectively shutting the vital choke point. About 20% of global oil supplies and an estimated $500bn of energy trade pass through the strait each year.

A tanker in the strait was attacked on Sunday, and Reuters reported that at least 150 vessels carrying crude, liquefied natural gas and oil products dropped anchor as traffic slowed to a near standstill. Vessels in the region also transport chemicals and fertilisers, raising concerns about knock-on effects for agriculture and food prices.

Tehran has long warned it could close the strait in retaliation for military action. However, Tamsin Hunt of S-RM said a full closure would be “devastating for Iran’s own economy”.

Market reaction

Analysts at Barclays said oil could reach $80 a barrel in the event of a “material supply disruption”. Royal Bank of Canada warned that regional leaders had cautioned Washington about the risk of “$100-plus oil” in the event of further escalation.

Higher wholesale prices are expected to filter through to motorists. The AA said the average UK petrol price stood at 132.9p a litre and diesel at 142.4p, with further rises possible. Luke Bosdet, an AA spokesperson, said escalating conflict threatened even higher fuel costs for drivers.

Stock markets are also braced for turbulence. London’s FTSE 100 is forecast to fall about 0.5% on Monday after hitting a record high on Friday.

Investors are expected to seek safe-haven assets. Gold, which has risen for four consecutive weeks, was up more than 2% on IG’s weekend markets, while silver gained over 3%.

Gulf markets and shipping risks

Eight Opec+ countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels a day in April, above earlier expectations. The move may ease pressure on prices, though the group said the step would also allow members to accelerate compensation adjustments.

The conflict has also pushed up the cost of insuring ships in the region. Dylan Mortimer of Marsh said attacks on shipping could have “major repercussions” for war insurance rates.

International Maritime Organization advised vessels to avoid transiting the affected area until conditions improve.

Most Gulf stock markets fell on Sunday. Saudi Arabia’s main index dropped 2.5%, although shares in Saudi Aramco rose 2.5% on expectations of higher crude prices. Kuwait suspended trading, while the UAE halted trading in Abu Dhabi and Dubai for two days, citing exceptional circumstances.

Join the discussion?

Already a member?

  Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 01.03 2026

View full article

Oil spiked up to 72 and now is down to 69 at this time. No surprise as Iran has used the strait for leverage for years to their benefit.

1 hour ago, cdulaney said:

Oil spiked up to 72 and now is down to 69 at this time. No surprise as Iran has used the strait for leverage for years to their benefit.

Dahm I should have filled up last week!!

Woohoo! We got Venezuela oil, Alaska oil, and fracking oil, and along with the Saudis, we will have almost all the oil.

I'm a little confused, wasn't this the guy who promised to avoid getting America involved in overseas adventures, and kept on blaming the Democrats for doing so? He's either started started wars in, or bombed eight countries so far, in just 13 short months. Might it might that number rise to 40 by the end of his term? For sure the War President is thirsty for blood and perhaps he's trying to emulate his good buddy Vlad.

Nobody knows how long this war is going to last, everybody is consistently underestimating Iran, this could be two weeks, it could be a year, it could be 10 years, it could end up costing America trillions upon trillions of dollars which they don't have. And this war could result in terrorist events on the American mainland, which Trump does not seem to be smart enough to have even thought of.

No doubt this is a war of choice, it did not need to happen, negotiations were underway, and even Trump himself said Iran's nuclear capabilities were crippled.

Remember that, or is all that being lost in the fog of war and jingoistic patriotism?

6 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

I'm a little confused, wasn't this the guy who promised to avoid getting America involved in overseas adventures, and kept on blaming the Democrats for doing so? He's either started started wars in, or bombed eight countries so far, in just 13 short months. Might it might that number rise to 40 by the end of his term? For sure the War President is thirsty for blood and perhaps he's trying to emulate his good buddy Vlad.

Nobody knows how long this war is going to last, everybody is consistently underestimating Iran, this could be two weeks, it could be a year, it could be 10 years, it could end up costing America trillions upon trillions of dollars which they don't have. And this war could result in terrorist events on the American mainland, which Trump does not seem to be smart enough to have even thought of.

No doubt this is a war of choice, it did not need to happen, negotiations were underway, and even Trump himself said Iran's nuclear capabilities were crippled.

Remember that, or is all that being lost in the fog of war and jingoistic patriotism?

President Barack Obama approved the $400 million transfer, which he had announced in January as part of the Iran nuclear deal. The money was flown into Iran on wooden pallets stacked with Swiss francs, euros and other currencies as the first installment of a $1.7 billion settlement resolving claims at an international tribunal at The Hague over a failed arms deal under the time of the Shah.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/03/politics/us-sends-plane-iran-400-million-cash

There was no way Israel and USA were not going to attack Iran it was coming

Only hope it's over quickly as if the Iranian people don't take their chance to rise and change the Regime in place could be bigger problems down the road

25 minutes ago, EVENKEEL said:

President Barack Obama approved the $400 million transfer, which he had announced in January as part of the Iran nuclear deal. The money was flown into Iran on wooden pallets stacked with Swiss francs, euros and other currencies as the first installment of a $1.7 billion settlement resolving claims at an international tribunal at The Hague over a failed arms deal under the time of the Shah.

https://www.cnn.com/2016/08/03/politics/us-sends-plane-iran-400-million-cash

And Trump 1.0 trashed the international agreement.

It went well, after thay, didn't it? 🤣

3 hours ago, shackleton said:

There was no way Israel and USA were not going to attack Iran it was coming

Only hope it's over quickly as if the Iranian people don't take their chance to rise and change the Regime in place could be bigger problems down the road

It's a surety there will be a power vacuum in Iran just as there is in Venezuela. Bibi & Donnie, BFFs!!!

Maybe they'll have to (finally) fund alternatives to fossil fuels. Maybe not, as long as dinosaurs are in govt.