Prices spike as conflict threatens global energy supply

Oil prices have surged to their highest level in more than two years after a senior Qatari official warned that oil and gas production across the Gulf could soon grind to a halt if conflict in the region continues.

Brent crude rose more than 9% on Friday to above $93 a barrel, marking its highest level since autumn 2023. The sharp jump followed comments from Qatar’s energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, who warned that the escalating crisis in the Middle East could have severe consequences for global energy supplies.

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The region plays a central role in the world’s oil and gas market, and any disruption quickly feeds through to global prices. Higher crude costs typically translate into more expensive fuel, heating and transport, which can in turn push up the price of goods and services.

Qatar warns of potential halt to Gulf production

Speaking to the Financial Times, Kaabi said the conflict could soon force oil and gas exporters across the Gulf to stop production entirely.

He warned the consequences could be severe for the global economy.

“The economies of the world could be brought down,” he said.

Qatar itself is a major exporter of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG), supplying energy to countries around the globe. Earlier this week QatarEnergy announced it had already halted LNG production after what it described as military attacks on its facilities.

The company has declared “force majeure”, a clause that allows suppliers to suspend contractual obligations when circumstances beyond their control prevent deliveries.

Kaabi suggested other energy exporters in the region could soon be forced to follow suit if the conflict continues.

Even if hostilities stopped immediately, he added, restoring normal production levels could take weeks or even months.

Strait of Hormuz disruption fuels market fears

The conflict has also raised serious concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most critical energy transit routes in the world.

Around a fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the narrow waterway each day. However, traffic through the strait has largely halted since the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran intensified last weekend.

Any prolonged disruption could have a major impact on global energy markets, particularly for countries heavily dependent on imported oil.

Large economies such as China, India and Japan rely significantly on crude shipments that normally pass through the strait.

Some Gulf producers have limited alternatives. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates operate pipelines that allow some oil exports to bypass the strait, but analysts say these routes cannot fully replace normal shipping volumes.

Analysts warn of wider economic risks

Energy analysts say the situation now presents a significant risk to the global economy if the conflict continues.

Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said the world may be on the brink of a wider energy shock.

“I think we’re on the edge of trying to understand whether this will be a short energy crisis with limited implications, or the beginning of a massive economic and energy crisis,” he said.

Leon warned that if the conflict continues for more than two weeks, the chances of serious disruption to global energy systems would increase sharply.

If Gulf exporters are unable to ship oil abroad, they will be forced to store production instead. Once storage facilities reach capacity, producers may have little choice but to shut down wells and halt output.

Depending on available storage, that point could arrive within days or a few weeks.

Oil prices rising above $100 a barrel is now considered a realistic possibility, Leon said, although the duration of any price spike would be crucial.

If prices remain high for an extended period, governments could respond by releasing emergency reserves, as many did following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Impact likely to be felt through energy costs

Some analysts believe a complete shutdown of Gulf oil and gas production remains an extreme scenario.

Lindsay James, an investment strategist at Quilter, said market movements suggest investors still expect shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume relatively quickly.

However, she warned the risk of prolonged disruption grows the longer the conflict continues.

For households, the immediate effect is likely to be felt mainly through higher energy costs rather than a broad surge in inflation.

Fuel prices and heating costs could rise, putting pressure on household budgets and slowing economic growth if elevated energy prices persist.

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  Adapted by ASEAN Now · Source · 06.03 2026

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Oil prices up airfare prices up mortgage rates up energy prices up food prices up gas prices up, did nobody think about sitting Trump down and explaining to him in simple terms that even a 5 year old could understand.

Actions have consequences.

I was watching TV tonight it would appear that none of the US allies were even warned before the idiot decided to launch strikes on Iran. They were even in the middle of negotiations.

If he had informed them they just might have had a chance to get him to hold off.

This is Israels war Netanyahu & Trump have dragged not only the American people but Europe and the rest of the world into it.

After 18 months on the campaign trail Trump falsely promised to make America affordable again, and what he's actually done is increase inflation, increase job losses, create a tremendous amount of fear and instability around the world, and drive up prices while driving down the quality of life for all but the most wealthy, all over this entire planet.

The man is gutter trash and a human abomination.

Well if there was ever any doubt before, we now know who the chief of Kaos is!

We need Agent 86!

let's see if we can hit the high crude oil prices of past administrations. High target would be $145 a barrel ... let the price gouging begin

Today ... https://oilprice.com/

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-chart

Mentioned it on another thread....rocket and feather pricing......the oil companies are always a win-win.

Another muslim induced problem.

Let's see what it looks like in 3 weeks.

Oh come on! It's an affordability hoax!

Our supreme leader told us in his SotU speech that gas is only $185 a gallon and that he, and only he, brought prices down.

I'd hate to think he lied yet again.

He also told us the economy is booming and the envy of the world, even though total jobs gained since April 2025 is now flat, and 34 of 367 major world equity indices are beating the US.

1 hour ago, Wingate said:

Oh come on! It's an affordability hoax!

Our supreme leader told us in his SotU speech that gas is only $185 a gallon and that he, and only he, brought prices down.

I'd hate to think he lied yet again.

He also told us the economy is booming and the envy of the world, even though total jobs gained since April 2025 is now flat, and 34 of 367 major world equity indices are beating the US.

That's BS, as he never stated $1.85 ... according to AI

... "During the February 25, 2026, State of the Union address, President Trump claimed that gas prices were below $2.30 a gallon in most states and as low as $1.99 in some areas. However, fact-checkers reported that Oklahoma having the lowest state average at approximately $2.37-$2.40" ...

Now ... well, let the price gouging begin ...

It is europe's own fault.

They had cheap abundant energy from Russia ,

but f-ed it up.

Then this : Iran’s president apologizes for strikes on neighbors as missiles and drones still pound their cities

https://apnews.com/article/iran-israel-us-march-7-2026-d347fd6a03185f51d670bf4e7cbf5373

They should not stop attacking oil installation and oil ports. Iran will have trouble keeping the Strait of H closed , so best to stop any oil / gas out of the area.

Make the cost of war unbearable .

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Great time to gouge Americans

44 minutes ago, sharot724 said:

Great time to gouge Americans

That didn't take long, from < $3 to $5, and in a country with control over some of the largest oil reserves ... go figure.

Unless of course, that's just a everyday snap of gas price in California, when the rest of country pays half that.

And a quick Google AI query ... and yep, as suspected, CA ...

Side note, still a lot cheaper than 91 in TH.

$2.70 / gal = ฿23 / liter

$3.59 / gal = ฿30.18 / liter

26 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

That didn't take long, from < $3 to $5, and in a country with control over some of the largest oil reserves ... go figure.

Unless of course, that's just a everyday snap of gas price in California, when the rest of country pays half that.

And a quick Google AI query ... and yep, as suspected, CA ...

Side note, still a lot cheaper than 91 in TH.

$2.70 / gal = ฿23 / liter

$3.59 / gal = ฿30.18 / liter

If you follow gas prices in the US you will notice that they rarely come down in proportion to the descending price of oil, and yet they go up by multiples when oil is rising in price. Like so many other corporate controlled entities in America, it seems to be a total racket, a type of mafia, and there is absolutely nothing in the way of governmental controls or consumer protection. America's leaders have completely sold out the public.

5 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

If you follow gas prices in the US you will notice that they rarely come down in proportion to the descending price of oil, and yet they go up by multiples when oil is rising in price. Like so many other corporate controlled entities in America, it seems to be a total racket, a type of mafia, and there is absolutely nothing in the way of governmental controls or consumer protection. America's leaders have completely sold out the public.

Not just USA, as I noticed the same in TH, oil price vs petrol, and same with all things worldwide. A sniff of anything that can be used as a reason, and prices go up faster than back down.

Only difference in TH, where this is no competitive pricing for petrol, comes down slower, but understandable, such as now, they freeze diesel, for the benefit of all, so recoup a bit of that, when lowering prices slower when oil drops faster.

Worse are those 'temporary taxes' that seem to never expire. Choice is just any illusion for most things. Need to be super thrifty now of days.

As shown, location makes a huge difference. Simple things like income taxes. Philly vs suburban PA, vs TN. Got a big 'raise' in salary, moving from PA to TN via less income taxes (city & state).

Don't get me started an RE taxes, and good part of the reason I live in TH. Minor changes even in TH, decides how much pocket change you have to play with.

Just need to decide, what if anything, are you will to pay extra for, or even need to. If you live in a metro, or even suburbia, with public trans, or a '15 minute' city (like I do now, even though semi rural), do you even need a car ???

Prices shouldn't be rising at all. What a scam ...

... gas at the pump isn't from higher price crude arrivals.

... USA gets little crude from middle east, from AI ...

Thailand on the other hand, if supply is disrupted for long term ...

50 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

That didn't take long, from < $3 to $5, and in a country with control over some of the largest oil reserves ... go figure.

Unless of course, that's just a everyday snap of gas price in California, when the rest of country pays half that.

And a quick Google AI query ... and yep, as suspected, CA ...

Side note, still a lot cheaper than 91 in TH.

$2.70 / gal = ฿23 / liter

$3.59 / gal = ฿30.18 / liter

The control of large reserves has little to do with oil prices, as wholesale prices are global.

It works both ways. Now oil prices are increasing everywhere because of the war against Iran, and during more than one year before that, they have been decreasing because SA and OPEC decided to increase their production.

it's the law of supply and demand.

Having said that. There should be a delay of around 2 to 4 weeks before changes in wholesale prices affect retail prices, so oil companies are obviously "anticipating"... 😀

2 minutes ago, candide said:

it's the law of supply and demand.

That's why us intelligent folks, have solar & BEVs

Freedom & Independence Rocks ...

1 hour ago, KhunLA said:

Not just USA, as I noticed the same in TH, oil price vs petrol, and same with all things worldwide. A sniff of anything that can be used as a reason, and prices go up faster than back down.

Only difference in TH, where this is no competitive pricing for petrol, comes down slower, but understandable, such as now, they freeze diesel, for the benefit of all, so recoup a bit of that, when lowering prices slower when oil drops faster.

Worse are those 'temporary taxes' that seem to never expire. Choice is just any illusion for most things. Need to be super thrifty now of days.

As shown, location makes a huge difference. Simple things like income taxes. Philly vs suburban PA, vs TN. Got a big 'raise' in salary, moving from PA to TN via less income taxes (city & state).

Don't get me started an RE taxes, and good part of the reason I live in TH. Minor changes even in TH, decides how much pocket change you have to play with.

Just need to decide, what if anything, are you will to pay extra for, or even need to. If you live in a metro, or even suburbia, with public trans, or a '15 minute' city (like I do now, even though semi rural), do you even need a car ???

I agree with you completely, as I have often observed that in the US too, and it does seem like temporary price gouging.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Not-Planning-To-Tap-Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve-Immediately.html

Evidence of lack of planning. You launch a war that you knew would be disruptive to global oil supplies, and lead to inflation. But you didn't build your reserves up to give you a shot at mitigating impacts.

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) currently holds about 415 million barrels of crude. Out of a capacity of 714 million barrels, it is less than 60% full at present as the U.S. has slowly rebuilt reserves following the major releases in 2022 at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

This is equivalent to not stocking up with water ahead of that hurricane.

This is a significant opportunity for the environment. Higher oil prices result in decreased consumption and enhance the appeal of renewable energy sources. It is imperative to implement a global tax on oil, directed to the United Nations. This revenue could be a powerful tool in supporting disadvantaged nations that are frequently overlooked by Western countries. By investing in these vulnerable communities, we can drive global progress while fostering a sustainable future for our planet.

2 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Not-Planning-To-Tap-Strategic-Petroleum-Reserve-Immediately.html

Evidence of lack of planning. You launch a war that you knew would be disruptive to global oil supplies, and lead to inflation. But you didn't build your reserves up to give you a shot at mitigating impacts.

This is equivalent to not stocking up with water ahead of that hurricane.

Well, it still represents the equivalent of four months of US oil imports.

3 hours ago, Roadsternut said:

But you didn't build your reserves up to give you a shot at mitigating impacts.

What impact ? USA imports most of it's crude from the Americas.

1 hour ago, candide said:

Well, it still represents the equivalent of four months of US oil imports.

How did you come up with that?

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php

8.33 m barrels per day, thats 1 billion barrels per 4 months.

Back in January 2025

https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/the-inaugural-address/

We will bring prices down, fill our strategic reserves up again right to the top, and export

American energy all over the world. We will be a rich nation again, and it is that liquid gold under our feet that will help to do it.

But in the Big Beautiful Budget bill, funding for the SPR was cut by almost 87%.

So the timing of this "Military Operation" is either based on hubris, the idea that it will be over quickly, or that indeed Rubio didn't mis-speak, and that it is in fact Israel that is now dictating US foreign policy.

On 3/7/2026 at 8:15 AM, dinsdale said:

Let's see what it looks like in 3 weeks.

Right on. Within 3 weeks somebody will declare "victory" and disengage.

At this point, the "world" will remember that oil is in a "oversupply" situation. Oil producers will be happy if the support at 60$/barrel will hold.

Higher and HIGHER......!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oil prices are going ....Up, Up and Away........!!!!!!!!!

Will we see Gas Lines in the USA....soon????

BOOM, Lakalaka....BOOM......

Is it happening AGAIN???

IRAN Gas Lines.....AGAIN?????

Oh, NO........Oh.....YES.....

7 hours ago, KhunLA said:

Prices shouldn't be rising at all. What a scam ...

... gas at the pump isn't from higher price crude arrivals.

... USA gets little crude from middle east, from AI ...

Thailand on the other hand, if supply is disrupted for long term ...

Seems Canada has a serious bargaining chip which they are not using.

Maybe redirect the oil to Asia and let the US feel the pinch.