Thai Economy Expected To Rebound In 2nd Quarter Of 2008

[Jai Dee]

CEBF reports economy in 2nd quarter of 2008 to rebound

Director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF), Thanawan Polwichai (ธนวรรธน์ พลวิชัย), expresses confidence that the economy of next year will rebound in the second quarter if the economic team of the new government successfully boosts investor confidence and domestic consumption.

The director reports that export in the last quarter of this year increases by almost 20%, in part due to the general election. He says the economic growth of the second quarter of 2008 can contribute to the overall economic growth of 4.5-5.0% . However, he says next year’s economy still depends on the new government’s economic team.

The director adds that foreign investors have positively responded to the general election. As for next year’s export growth, he says it might not grow as much as 10% like this year due to the U.S.’s economic slow down.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 December 2007

[gjones]

CEBF reports economy in 2nd quarter of 2008 to rebound

Director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF), Thanawan Polwichai (ธนวรรธน์ พลวิชัย), expresses confidence that the economy of next year will rebound in the second quarter if the economic team of the new government successfully boosts investor confidence and domestic consumption.

The director reports that export in the last quarter of this year increases by almost 20%, in part due to the general election. He says the economic growth of the second quarter of 2008 can contribute to the overall economic growth of 4.5-5.0% . However, he says next year’s economy still depends on the new government’s economic team.

The director adds that foreign investors have positively responded to the general election. As for next year’s export growth, he says it might not grow as much as 10% like this year due to the U.S.’s economic slow down.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 December 2007

Which planet does he come from?

[Irene]

CEBF reports economy in 2nd quarter of 2008 to rebound

Director of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting (CEBF), Thanawan Polwichai (ธนวรรธน์ พลวิชัย), expresses confidence that the economy of next year will rebound in the second quarter if the economic team of the new government successfully boosts investor confidence and domestic consumption.

The director reports that export in the last quarter of this year increases by almost 20%, in part due to the general election. He says the economic growth of the second quarter of 2008 can contribute to the overall economic growth of 4.5-5.0% . However, he says next year's economy still depends on the new government's economic team.

The director adds that foreign investors have positively responded to the general election. As for next year's export growth, he says it might not grow as much as 10% like this year due to the U.S.'s economic slow down.

Source: Thai National News Bureau Public Relations Department - 28 December 2007

It is typical of this Centre to predict economic future with a lot of "if" and "but". If my memory serves me right, it is the same economist from this Centre who predicted earlier in the year that Thailand's growth rate in 2007 would be BELOW 4%. Now, it looks certain that it would be 4.5%. If you note down all his past forecasts against actuals, you would not pay much attention to him and his centre.

Furthermore, his attribution to the general election for the export rise in the last quarter of 2007 by 20% is somewhat strange. What has the Thai election got to do with the export drive and demand of foreign importers? It is the matured and resilient attitude of the Thai exporters that has kept our pace growing. The government may come and go, Thai and foreign businessment have the habit of relying on themselves. On the contrary, they would prefer the government to leave them alone. Thailand would go far if it adopts laissez faire policy by not unduly imposing restraints.

It is also strange for him to say that 10% export growth for Thailand in 2008 is unlikely because of US's economic slowdown. After more than 20% growth in the Q3-4 07, don't you think a 10% in 2008 is possible, especially when Thailand's export is not dependent exclusively on the US.