" The Crash Of The E U R O "

[seanocasey]

well good news

looks like the Germans are bailing out the Euro zone big time

EUR/USD jumped from 1.4320 to 1.4360 in early offshore exchanges only to hold within this band and open this morning at 1.4330.

The EUR took an early lead versus the JPY and the USD during the Asia session yesterday. Suddenly, however, its tank fell empty following the release of the euro zone’s Sentix investor confidence survey.

Euro zone’s Sentix confidence index for the month of September failed to reach the consensus as it only came in at -14.6. It was seen to improve -13.5 from -17.0. The less-than-impressive result caused the EUR to lose some of its previous gains.

In the meantime, Germany’s factory orders rose for the fifth straight month in July by 3.5% after already advancing by 3.8%. It even surpassed the initial estimate of a 2.0% rise. The increase in orders in July was due to the 10.3% expansion in local demand as domestic orders for investment goods spiked by 17.2%. Hence, an increase in industrial production can be expected in the third quarter given the hike in factory orders.

Germany’s trade balance and industrial production for the month of July are scheduled today at 6:00 am GMT and 10:00 am GMT, respectively. Germany’s trade balance is expected to expand to €11.2 billion from €11.0 billion. Its industrial production is also seen to rise by 1.6% after falling by 0.1% in the month prior.

[pete_r]

http://fistfulofeuros.net/afoe/economics-a...ropes-perifery/

[sokal]

Keynes was also brilliant, though his concepts of government being able to stimulate national economies has been shown to be fundamentally flawed.

I don't think anybody has ever shown that concept to be "fundamentally flawed". Outside of a few bloggers who spend most of their time saying how stupid everybody in any position of power is and how obvious the answers to everything are.

The Japanese have proved that Keynes is complete BS. That is what happens when you try and fight a contraction.

Well, certainly if a theory is not a silver bullet that fixes absolutely everything it must be "complete BS". Makes total sense. Clearly you've thought this out.

It makes all problems worse, I promise you, the financial crisis is in front of us, not behind us because of Keynes. Remember you heard this.

[Naam]

well good news

looks like the Germans are bailing out the Euro zone big time

EUR/USD jumped from 1.4320 to 1.4360 in early offshore exchanges only to hold within this band and open this morning at 1.4330.

The EUR took an early lead versus the JPY and the USD during the Asia session yesterday. Suddenly, however, its tank fell empty following the release of the euro zone’s Sentix investor confidence survey.

but the "empty tank" propelled EURUSD temporarily across 1.45 trading now @ 1.44931

[Naam]

1 EUR = 2 Dmark

About 30 years ago, my god am i old, the Pound was 3 Dmark = 1,50 EUR

So far about out of track and just for the super mathematicians between us.

you are quite right Loverboy as one can indeed derive GBP/EUR values by a calculation based on DEM.

about 30 years ago (and that applies too to the '70s) the Pound was rather stable and bought 4 Marks and 29 years ago the Pound bought more than 5 Marks.

and if we go back in history (to the 40-50s) one Pound bought 2.80 Dollars or more than 11 Marks. that lasted till the mid 1960s when the mighty Pound was for the first time harshly circumcised (~6.50 DEM) and when the fraudulent Bretton Woods System collapsed in 1971 the Pound imploded too and traded @ 4.00 plus minus 0.50 Marks till in 1992 George Soros hit hard on the Pound. since then we are facing a rollercoaster of most major currencies vs. each other.

Surely what we are questioning here is the stability of the underlying economies as opposed to stabiliy of one currency compared to another . I agree with your last comment that it has been a rollercoaster since 1992 so to claim that any one currency has been stable is taking a very one-sided view - to say that the USD has flucuated wildly against the EUR works when looked at from an EUR perspective but if looked at from the USD perspective isn't the counter argument that the EUR is flucuating against the dollar equally true?

basically you are right. but if looked from the USD perspective and only at EURUSD the impression would be lopsided. to judge/claim which currency fluctuates more (or less) can only be done by comparing a single currency vs. either a basket of major currencies or vs. a number of different single ones. but whatever... the results are only academic.

[loverboy44]

Khun Sokal,

if everyone would have thought like you, the people would have waited in front of their banks to take out their cash like in England at Northern Rock.

Lucky us that they did not. The opposite happened. They spent more of their money which gave the economy a boost.

The glass can be half full or half empty. Half empty thinking helps noone.

[LaoPo]

1 Euro = US $ 1,451 now

not much of a crash so far, but.........................it's not October 7th yet

LaoPo

[sokal]

Khun Sokal,

if everyone would have thought like you, the people would have waited in front of their banks to take out their cash like in England at Northern Rock.

Lucky us that they did not. The opposite happened. They spent more of their money which gave the economy a boost.

The glass can be half full or half empty. Half empty thinking helps noone.

If you think that spending money in a capitol starved banking system helps the economy then you are a hopeless Keynesian. You know nothing about economics.

[loverboy44]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

[teletiger]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

Knowledge can be an weapon in the wrong hands. In your case we'll make an exception.

Regards.

[sokal]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

When I was growing up I bought into this mainstream BS economics too(just like you are now). Thank goodness I changed and learned how real economics works. Now is your chance.

[Naam]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

When I was growing up I bought into this mainstream BS economics too(just like you are now). Thank goodness I changed and learned how real economics works. Now is your chance.

"was"?

[sokal]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

When I was growing up I bought into this mainstream BS economics too(just like you are now). Thank goodness I changed and learned how real economics works. Now is your chance.

"was"?

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[loverboy44]

Welcome back to the past Mr Sokal! Or should i say Mr Stalin or ........?

[teletiger]

or ........?

http://www.websters-online-dictionary.org/

There ya go.

Regards.

[pete_r]

October 7th came and went. Any crash yet?

[loverboy44]

No, the opposite!

[Naam]

these kind of announcements have always turned out to be nothing but lukewarm farts

[britmaveric]

^most speculation ends the same way I might add!

[jesimps]

We can be so lucky that we have our economy specialist Khun Sokal. He will save the world now with his knowlage about the world markets.

Send me 2 satang when you finished. I'll pm you my account number...........LOL

When I was growing up I bought into this mainstream BS economics too(just like you are now). Thank goodness I changed and learned how real economics works. Now is your chance.

"was"?

Hello, soft lad's at it again. Plea to mods, please ban this sarcastic moron from using the forum. When was the last time anyone received a useful reply from him? He just seems to hover, waiting to penalise people for spelling mistakes and to make sarcastic replies to genuine and harmless comments. He's like the kid who used to throw bricks at you on your way home from school who you could never catch and used to stand there going naa naa na naa naa!

I used to really enjoy visiting this forum, but now only do it very seldom, because every time I do, I see this idiot's cutting criticisms to posters who are genuinely seeking sensible advice.

It doesn't matter which thread you're on, he's there spitting out venom on all subjects under the sun. Not even attempting to be helpful.

My advise to the Klingons (s?) is to get rid of this prat and find yourselves a new representative. My advice to the mods is to clean up this forum by getting rid of provocetors (s?) like Naam.

Personal for Naam: There you go soft lad, lots of spelling uncertainty there for you to pick up on.

[Naam]

the dogs bark, but the caravan moves on (old bedouin proverb).

[loverboy44]

I do really enjoy Naam's comments as he is able to just bring things to the point with a few words.

Carry on Naam!

And, yes, the dogs that bark don't bite.

[neil324]

http://www.economist.com/world/europe/disp...e=features_box3

Sorting by exposure in absolute $ terms you have:

Austria $ 278 bn

Germay $ 220 bn

Italy $ 220 bn

France $ 155 bn

Belgium $ 137 bn

Netherlands $ 122 bn

That's over $ 1 trillion owed by Eastern European countries to the Eurozone

Taken from here

http://elections.thinkaboutit.eu/2009/03/austrianeconomy/

Of course maybe the Euro is going to rally when all goes tits up.

[sokal]

I do really enjoy Naam's comments as he is able to just bring things to the point with a few words.

Carry on Naam!

And, yes, the dogs that bark don't bite.

Look at his avatar, he is an ugly SOB.

[Naam]

I do really enjoy Naam's comments as he is able to just bring things to the point with a few words. Carry on Naam! And, yes, the dogs that bark don't bite.

Look at his avatar, he is an ugly SOB.

some people select an ugly avatar. others the picture of an internationally recognised village idiot

[mommysboy]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...-contracts.html

Time to warm up the printing presses both sides of the Atlantic?

[loverboy44]

Whatever the printing media is saying. The EURO will not crash!!!!!

[Mosha]

I do really enjoy Naam's comments as he is able to just bring things to the point with a few words.

Carry on Naam!

And, yes, the dogs that bark don't bite.

Look at his avatar, he is an ugly SOB.

Pity your Avatar wasn't born in Texas. A friend of mine has as his sig "Somewhere in Texas a village is missing it's idiot"

[mommysboy]

Whatever the printing media is saying. The EURO will not crash!!!!!

No but if it does not weaken that jeopardises any recovery will be tame if at all.

Italy has a very big economy and appears to be in an even worse position than UK, which is having to undergo a big change, not the least a 30% or so reduction in the pound.

OK Germany and France may be the powerhouses, but surely they can not mask the deficiencies of Italy, Spain, Ireland, Spain and a good few others.

Euroland has yet to take its medicine.

[mommysboy]

I meant Portugal not Spain again- well not much difference is there!