3-6 drop of baht adds up in a hurry when you consider 10's of 1,000's of US dollars...

Rumor (from a local 10-year expat friend) in December said it's likey to go to 30, I was there 2 years ago it was 29 ... just how low can it possibly go? 20? 25? 7-8 years ago I hear it was well over 40 ... (I'd be in absolute heaven for 40)

Any insight as to why the latest drop? Maybe a link to financial news or a trusted source report?

I tried ThaiVisa's seach feature but it still doesn't work no results on the simplest of words (at all) ... but that's another topic/another day

TIA for any input

MaiThaiMai

Currencies, Including the baht, are the most volatile and most difficult to follow and understand. when anyone says with conviction " It will go to 30, maybe 29" they are just speculating, as we all are. Read and follow "JIM RODGERS" google him. He is by far the most knowledgeable on precious metals and currencies. For small fry, like me, I recommend staying out of those markets and diversify your assets, especially your hard assets. Hold dollars, swiss franc and krona long term and stay out of hedgeing all together. As for the overvalued baht. Don't bet on it or hold too much. The dong has devalued, the other asean currencies are under pressure. Thailand will be in a squeeze in 6-12 months.

Currencies, Including the baht, are the most volatile and most difficult to follow and understand. when anyone says with conviction " It will go to 30, maybe 29" they are just speculating, as we all are. Read and follow "JIM RODGERS" google him. He is by far the most knowledgeable on precious metals and currencies. For small fry, like me, I recommend staying out of those markets and diversify your assets, especially your hard assets. Hold dollars, swiss franc and krona long term and stay out of hedgeing all together. As for the overvalued baht. Don't bet on it or hold too much. The dong has devalued, the other asean currencies are under pressure. Thailand will be in a squeeze in 6-12 months.

Thanks for the reply, actually I am not looking at playing a "currency investment" route other than investing my retirement money into a Thai bank when I finally move there sometime later this year just trying t speculate I guess at making sure there is enough of a cushion to satisfy the 800,000 baht needed for a retirement extension visa..

Thanks again,

MaiThaiMai

when the exchange of usd to baht was only 20-22 bath per usd.... i was here on and off....

when it broke to 25, i was also here....

when it was trading at 32, 42 and particularly when it hit 50+, i was furiously exchanging usd for baht.... realizing "it is now or never...." several textile manufacturers in sa-moot-pra-karn agreed with my estimation and went along, borrowing heavily overseas....

in my estimation.... the baht will continue to straddle around 31+ for a while yet.... LOL

as was suggested.... only a fool would dare to say for any certainty that at what level or rate the baht would be trading at next year....

however, the so-called guru in the currencies market would almost certainly guarantee you that if you follow his advice and pay a nominal fee to him.... he would definitely make you rich beyong imagination....

and you only have to pay a small subscription fee monthly.... LOL

care to join and enrich yourself.... LOL

How low will it go?

How long is a piece of string?

The USD is out of favor, wait until something blows up here and then it will return to 52 to the dollar.

When the Chinese can trade freely the dollar will rise.

when the exchange of usd to baht was only 20-22 bath per usd.... i was here on and off....

when it broke to 25, i was also here....

when it was trading at 32, 42 and particularly when it hit 50+, i was furiously exchanging usd for baht.... realizing "it is now or never...." several textile manufacturers in sa-moot-pra-karn agreed with my estimation and went along, borrowing heavily overseas....

in my estimation.... the baht will continue to straddle around 31+ for a while yet.... LOL

as was suggested.... only a fool would dare to say for any certainty that at what level or rate the baht would be trading at next year....

however, the so-called guru in the currencies market would almost certainly guarantee you that if you follow his advice and pay a nominal fee to him.... he would definitely make you rich beyong imagination....

and you only have to pay a small subscription fee monthly.... LOL

care to join and enrich yourself.... LOL

What year(s) spread (time frames) are you talking about? The last 3? 5? 10? 15 years? When was it 20 would concern me most and do you know why? Global problems? Political unrest? (redundant -->) Corruption beyond the norm? I'd be quite content frankly if it stays at 31ish for 2010...

Thanks for the input ...

MaiThaiMai

How low will it go?

How long is a piece of string?

The USD is out of favor, wait until something blows up here and then it will return to 52 to the dollar.

When the Chinese can trade freely the dollar will rise.

I guess I should have said how low can it go or has it gone?...So where's ^"here" in here (generally speaking of course)? --> "wait until something blows up ^here" ... stuff bl*ws up all the time in Thailand from what I read from overseas ; )

Rumorville is some circles is the USD is more than "out of favor" wanting to be shed as the currency oil is traded-in in favor of a new global currency or even the Euro ...

Frankly I'm not sure if I want to be in a conversation on a cell phone or the WWW these days that contains words or phrases like "b*ows up" ; )

MaiThaiMai

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

Well said. I've lived and worked in Thailand for over 20 years, I just take the rough with the smooth just the same as one would do in your home country.

it's foolish to pick an exact number for a particular day.... but the big picture isn't difficult. Thailand's latest crisis (real one) was about 14 years ago and it was over the currency, it dropped from 20 to 50 in dollars, roughly. This led to big exports and the Bank of Thailand keeps it's bids out of the fx market ever since so that the baht is kept low.... foreign currecny earnings are instead put into US Treasury debt. Because Thailand is smaller than Japan and China it can actually play this game of not bidding on it's own currency and "investing" in US debt with it's dollars (and purchasing oil and other imports, of course) to an even higher degree than the aforementioned (politically), however at some point this results in problems for all parties involved (except certain export businesses and foreigners/tourists converting into baht). The trend internationally however is a falling dollar and, as they say, a trend is in effect until there is evidence to the contrary and it appears that the US dollar is losing it's reserve status. As well, asian countries must move away from the Export Policy to one of consumption and service based..... best to be prepared for a more normailzed baht..... in the 20's. Invest in Thailand or other Asean countries, do not rely on the cheap baht to continue forever.

You can also look at it another way. It makes sense for Thailand to be poor for many reasons..... but not so poor that all someone has to do is hop off a plane and they are rich just because their printed paper money is XYZ instead of Thai baht. Thailand is not that messed up... it was a game which you can see in the Bank of Thailand's own data such as how much it's reserves in US debt is as a pct of GDP vs. other countries as well as The Economist's Big Mac Index etc etc. the signs are everywhere.

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

The OP was hardly moaning or complaining. He was asking a question. Do you think that he personaly had something to do with the global meltdown? Judging from what your post says you are clearly moaning about it and not getting on with your life.

it's foolish to pick an exact number for a particular day.... but the big picture isn't difficult. Thailand's latest crisis (real one) was about 14 years ago and it was over the currency, it dropped from 20 to 50 in dollars, roughly. This led to big exports and the Bank of Thailand keeps it's bids out of the fx market ever since so that the baht is kept low.... foreign currecny earnings are instead put into US Treasury debt. Because Thailand is smaller than Japan and China it can actually play this game of not bidding on it's own currency and "investing" in US debt with it's dollars (and purchasing oil and other imports, of course) to an even higher degree than the aforementioned (politically), however at some point this results in problems for all parties involved (except certain export businesses and foreigners/tourists converting into baht). The trend internationally however is a falling dollar and, as they say, a trend is in effect until there is evidence to the contrary and it appears that the US dollar is losing it's reserve status. As well, asian countries must move away from the Export Policy to one of consumption and service based..... best to be prepared for a more normailzed baht..... in the 20's. Invest in Thailand or other Asean countries, do not rely on the cheap baht to continue forever.

You can also look at it another way. It makes sense for Thailand to be poor for many reasons..... but not so poor that all someone has to do is hop off a plane and they are rich just because their printed paper money is XYZ instead of Thai baht. Thailand is not that messed up... it was a game which you can see in the Bank of Thailand's own data such as how much it's reserves in US debt is as a pct of GDP vs. other countries as well as The Economist's Big Mac Index etc etc. the signs are everywhere.

Thank you for your time and experience sharing. I'm simply tad worried that I may have to put off retirement a bit longer and was maybe looking for a trend of some type that may cause the delay as I have been there 3 times in the last two years for a total of 4 months collectively and found the constant warm weather (and warm smiles) did wonders for a chronic pain issue I have, thanks again for your time.

No reson to continue here any further since the rotten stank of trolls has enetered the thread ... I'll make it back whenever, idiots will always be and wherever humans tread (or "thread" as the case may be), it's just fact of life and easy to avoid ...

Be well and if your in LOS catch a few rays for me

MaiThaiMai

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

The OP was hardly moaning or complaining. He was asking a question. Do you think that he personaly had something to do with the global meltdown? Judging from what your post says you are clearly moaning about it and not getting on with your life.

Thank you for your insight and sorry you had to post some insight in this context, it shouldn't have been necessary ...

MaiThaiMai

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

You seem to easily forget the financial crisis in 1997: so put in your own word "you guys from Thailand are now reaping what you have sown"

<H1 class=firstHeading id=firstHeading>1997 Asian Financial Crisis</H1> Countries most affected by the Asian Crisis.The Asian Financial Crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of Asia beginning in July 1997, and raised fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion.

The crisis started in Thailand with the financial collapse of the Thai baht caused by the decision of the Thai government to float the baht, cutting its peg to the USD, after exhaustive efforts to support it in the face of a severe financial overextension that was in part real estate driven. At the time, Thailand had acquired a burden of foreign debt that made the country effectively bankrupt even before the collapse of its currency. As the crisis spread, most of Southeast Asia and Japan saw slumping currencies, devalued stock markets and other asset prices, and a precipitous rise in private debt.^[1]

Though there has been general agreement on the existence of a crisis and its consequences, what is less clear is the causes of the crisis, as well as its scope and resolution. Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand were the countries most affected by the crisis. Hong Kong, Malaysia, Laos and the Philippines were also hurt by the slump. The People's Republic of China, India, Taiwan, Singapore, Brunei and Vietnam were less affected, although all suffered from a loss of demand and confidence throughout the region.

Foreign debt-to-GDP ratios rose from 100% to 167% in the four large ASEAN economies in 1993–96, then shot up beyond 180% during the worst of the crisis. In South Korea, the ratios rose from 13 to 21% and then as high as 40%, while the other Northern NICs (Newly Industrialized Countries) fared much better. Only in Thailand and South Korea did debt service-to-exports ratios rise.^[2]

Although most of the governments of Asia had seemingly sound fiscal policies, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stepped in to initiate a $40 billion program to stabilize the currencies of South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia, economies particularly hard hit by the crisis. The efforts to stem a global economic crisis did little to stabilize the domestic situation in Indonesia, however. After 30 years in power, President Suharto was forced to step down on 21 May 1998 in the wake of widespread rioting that followed sharp price increases caused by a drastic devaluation of the rupiah. The effects of the crisis lingered through 1998. In the Philippines growth dropped to virtually zero in 1998. Only Singapore and Taiwan proved relatively insulated from the shock, but both suffered serious hits in passing, the former more so due to its size and geographical location between Malaysia and Indonesia. By 1999, however, analysts saw signs that the economies of Asia were beginning to recover.

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

Banks have failed all over the world.

It is not the countries fault it is the way they were running the banks.

Greed is the root of all evil

I am not a racist or jealous person by any means, but you guys from America are now reaping what you have sown! It was all of your country's fault that this world is now in a global receission. My currency has dropped dramatically far more than the US $. I am very angry by this but I don't moan about it. So stop moaning and get on with your life.

Banks have failed all over the world.

It is not the countries fault it is the way they were running the banks.

Greed is the root of all evil

Exactly. Every bank in Iceland is bankrupt. Trying to blame that on the US is silly. It's either stupidity or greed. Or both. If a currency has gone down more than the dollar (against the baht, I assume?) it's most likely because the banks in that country were more greedy than American banks.

interesting reading here

forum

Asian economies are poised for accelerated growth as the global economic crisis recedes, but recovery remains fragile and carefully calibrated policy adjustments along with increased integration efforts will be needed to sustain growth and cushion the region against future shocks, says a new study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

The study, entitled Policy Changes for Asia after the Global Recession: Impact of the Global Economy and Policy Implications, notes that growth in the region is set to quicken this year as the global economy regains strength. But it also cautions that recovery in Asia is still overly dependent on policy support from developed economies, while a turnaround in the region’s largest market, the US, has yet to gain traction. Mobile capital flows which can cause volatility in exchange rates and domestic liquidity also continue to pose a risk to emerging economies in the region.

The study, prepared by the Centennial Group International, is one of a series of reports that will be presented at a two-day regional forum on the Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis organized by ADB at its headquarters in Manila starting today. Top officials including policymakers, finance ministers, heads of central banks, business leaders and development experts from nearly 20 countries from developing Asia are taking part in the forum.

Opening the forum, ADB President Haruhiko Kuroda said, "The region is now showing signs of a V-shaped recovery, with a 6.6% growth outlook for this year. While we believe developing Asia is leading the global economic recovery, it is still too early to relax vigorous efforts to restore demand and stabilize financial systems. In particular, exit strategies for fiscal stimulus must be carefully timed."

Poverty reduction will not be sustained at the pace of pre-crisis years unless sources of growth are rebalanced toward more domestic and regional demand, and made more inclusive. It is imperative for the region to bring growth back to its higher trajectory to cover the lost ground on poverty reduction, and to support global recovery, Kuroda said.

In a second report entitled, Policy Changes for Asia after the Global Recession: Long Term Implications for Asian Economies, the study notes that Asia should continue to strengthen cooperation in the financial sector as a bulwark against future financial turmoil in developed economies, but also stresses that integration efforts should be modest in size to ensure they deliver real benefits.

“Policy makers should avoid using up scarce bureaucratic resources and limited political goodwill on huge initiatives which do not yield tangible benefits at the ground level but should instead focus on smaller scale efforts,” this report says.

It notes that areas where financial cooperation could be strengthened are bilateral agreements allowing large financial institutions in one country to expand or acquire banks in another, as well as the expansion of sector privileges in subregions, such as Greater Mekong Subregion.

The report also advised that to support future growth, countries in the region should increase intraregional trade and take steps to raise productivity and their capacity for innovation. Smaller economies should adopt policies which attract low cost manufacturers, foreign direct investment, and tourism.

it's foolish to pick an exact number for a particular day.... but the big picture isn't difficult. Thailand's latest crisis (real one) was about 14 years ago and it was over the currency, it dropped from 20 to 50 in dollars, roughly. This led to big exports and the Bank of Thailand keeps it's bids out of the fx market ever since so that the baht is kept low.... foreign currecny earnings are instead put into US Treasury debt. Because Thailand is smaller than Japan and China it can actually play this game of not bidding on it's own currency and "investing" in US debt with it's dollars (and purchasing oil and other imports, of course) to an even higher degree than the aforementioned (politically), however at some point this results in problems for all parties involved (except certain export businesses and foreigners/tourists converting into baht). The trend internationally however is a falling dollar and, as they say, a trend is in effect until there is evidence to the contrary and it appears that the US dollar is losing it's reserve status. As well, asian countries must move away from the Export Policy to one of consumption and service based..... best to be prepared for a more normailzed baht..... in the 20's. Invest in Thailand or other Asean countries, do not rely on the cheap baht to continue forever.

You can also look at it another way. It makes sense for Thailand to be poor for many reasons..... but not so poor that all someone has to do is hop off a plane and they are rich just because their printed paper money is XYZ instead of Thai baht. Thailand is not that messed up... it was a game which you can see in the Bank of Thailand's own data such as how much it's reserves in US debt is as a pct of GDP vs. other countries as well as The Economist's Big Mac Index etc etc. the signs are everywhere.

Thank you for your time and experience sharing. I'm simply tad worried that I may have to put off retirement a bit longer and was maybe looking for a trend of some type that may cause the delay as I have been there 3 times in the last two years for a total of 4 months collectively and found the constant warm weather (and warm smiles) did wonders for a chronic pain issue I have, thanks again for your time.

No reson to continue here any further since the rotten stank of trolls has enetered the thread ... I'll make it back whenever, idiots will always be and wherever humans tread (or "thread" as the case may be), it's just fact of life and easy to avoid ...

Be well and if your in LOS catch a few rays for me

MaiThaiMai

Take the good with the bad if you can afford it.I was very lucky in retiring early,6 years ago in LOS.i cashed some gbp for 74.9 and then a couple ish years later i got 69.9.Been living on this thai baht until a couple of months ago and i am getting nothing like the amount but accept i have been in a grat position for over 5 years.

Prior to the 97 crash the Baht was pegged to USD and the exchange rate held at around 25, subsequently it went ballistic and into the 40's. Today it's on its way back down, a reversion to circa 25 is not totally unthinkable.

No one really knows for sure about the dollar do they?

At the rate the current and recent administration has been spending AND more importantly, how the Federal Reserve is printing money out of thin air, the dollar could collapse entirely.

There's already talks about a IMF based electronic reserve currency, SDR's, finally putting away with the charade and placing the control of the worlds money in the hands of international banking families.

There's also the Amero, do a google, it's in coin form already, as a joint currency union of Canada, Mexico and the US.

There's no way to know when the collapse will happen. A war with Iran or Yemen would breathe some confidence into the dollar trough sheer intimidation.

I will be doing like the Thais and buy gold.

"There's also the Amero, do a google, it's in coin form already, as a joint currency union of Canada, Mexico and the US."

That's a lie. The Amero coins were designed by a gent as a private (not governmental) concept, and not as a genuine currency. The coins he made were cast, not die struck. The guy has, however, designed real coins for the US treasury. Your conviction that the Amero is a genuine currency is absolute fantasy, and indicates how easy it is to trick you. Here's something else you didn't know - the "2BIG2FAIL" NY license plate is a fake.

Prior to the 97 crash the Baht was pegged to USD and the exchange rate held at around 25, subsequently it went ballistic and into the 40's. Today it's on its way back down, a reversion to circa 25 is not totally unthinkable.

Back then, you could also eat your fill at a kao-pat stand for 1 Baht - I don't expect ever to see that again.

"There's also the Amero, do a google, it's in coin form already, as a joint currency union of Canada, Mexico and the US."

That's a lie. The Amero coins were designed by a gent as a private (not governmental) concept, and not as a genuine currency. The coins he made were cast, not die struck. The guy has, however, designed real coins for the US treasury. Your conviction that the Amero is a genuine currency is absolute fantasy, and indicates how easy it is to trick you. Here's something else you didn't know - the "2BIG2FAIL" NY license plate is a fake.

Awww, must you poop on the (conspiracy) party Black helicopters, dude & grassy knolls, flight 93 landed safely somewhere, etc. ad nauseum

"There's also the Amero..."

:D

"There's also the Amero..."

:D

not to forget the Angolan Kwanza and the Zambian Kwacha!

the truth is the thai baht is pegged to a basket of hard currencies as is the malaysian ringit

you will notice that the baht and ringit trade at the same rate divided by ten

supposedly to prevent speculators from causing wild fluctuations on their currencies

more likely to set their currency to what ever they want it to be

as does china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency, good one

try floating your currency in the open market first, then talk to us about your world domination schemes

as does china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency, good one

no fairy tales please. China never claimed such thing.

as does china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency, good one

no fairy tales please. China never claimed such thing.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said the international currency system dominated by the US dollar is a "product of the past".

Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12203391

as does china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency, good one

no fairy tales please. China never claimed such thing.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said the international currency system dominated by the US dollar is a "product of the past".

Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency,

http://www.bbc.co.uk...acific-12203391

skipping half the truth is worse than a lie!

"Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency, but acknowledged that would be a "fairly long process".

= a fair and reasonable statement.

as does china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency, good one

no fairy tales please. China never claimed such thing.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has said the international currency system dominated by the US dollar is a "product of the past".

Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency,

http://www.bbc.co.uk...acific-12203391

skipping half the truth is worse than a lie!

"Mr Hu also said China was taking steps to replace it with the yuan, its own currency, but acknowledged that would be a "fairly long process".

= a fair and reasonable statement.

what does time frame have to do with the facts of what i stated

"china with their peg to the dollar, while claiming to want to be the new world currency"

that is a fact and straight from Hu's mouth, that is their intent no matter how long it takes, but you knew that already