UK Pound Collapse 47.99 against the Baht

[Gambles]

It is possible that Asian currencies are not going to strengthen in the near term - So be careful about switching to Baht or SGD .

With the problems in the Euro area - perhaps spreading - there is a possibility of a recession in the Europe ( Greece is being forced into one - and who's next ?) This will effect exports from China and so S/E Asia .

Currencies here have gone up a lot recently - So perhaps a time to switch ? USD will benefit from any market correction - So short term switch to USD ?

Yep - you know that I have a lot of time for that view - USD to rally strongly on the back of any global problems - the more severe the problems, the greater the rally.

Ladies & gentlemen I'd like to present the clear winner of the least ugly of the major currencies contest - The US Dollar!

So you would switch today from Baht and SGD and GBP to USD ?

Really depends on individual circs

If Baht is base currency then a combination of THB, SGD and USD weighted according to individual needs, other assets etc

[Gambles]

Gambles may but I certainly wouldn't! If the Conservatives win outright tomorrow I expect the Pound to rocket and that being for two reasons, the first that a clear way forward out of spiralling debt will be in the offing and secondly, the Pound will be seen as a safer haven given the woes of the Euro. If however the outcome tomorrow is something else, well, I expect to see the Pound slide somewhat. The differentiator with the UK, given the current problems in Europe, is that we have the Pound and they have the Euro and I don't expect the contagion surrounding the Euro to reach UK shores unless there's a really silly outcome on Thursday.

election result is short term noise

a Tory win giving a short term boost is really an opportunity to sell GBP

[Gambles]

I think GBP will fall whatever happens /

I think you might have just killed this thread with that statement Churchill, tell you what, let's meet here again after the election results have been anounced and see who had the best guess.

Excuse me gents but I haven't noticed either of you having a guess ? Expressing a preference maybe, not the same thing. Who would like to guess this one, eve of polling day and almost half of people polled say they are undecided, 1 in10 say they will make up the mind in the booth itself!! And there could be some silly results, its quite possible that we will have our next election date confirmed before the one in LOS. My prediction. No overall majority. Tories largest party, labour not far behind, Liberals not doing as well as the polls have predicted they might but still holding the balance. A short-lived Lib-lab coalition, Miliiband as PM, Cable as Chancellor and Clegg as, hmm problem...ok lets try one of the other permutations, any one of thousands. I do agree GPB in for a torrid time for a while at least. At least if my prediction does come true I will be able to do the old school tie thing with Milliband, though I can't remember anyone at Haverstock actually owning a tie let alone wearing one

Personally I sense a sea change in recent days and predict Con overall majority of 30.

You may be right

find out soon enough

Easy to say Lib in an opinion poll but voting may be a different kettle of fish

Or not

[Naam]

BUT--this too shall end. I find it hard to believe that the baht will be able to stay so strong much longer. The strong baht really hurts the Thai exports. It of course hurts the Thai tourism industry. The political wreck should be wrecking the baht as well. I am no expert but it seems very likely that the strong baht is based on Big money holding it up here in Thailand for political reasons. When it does get weaker, and it will, it will crash.

is that rubber sheet that protects your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams in place?

[mommysboy]

BUT--this too shall end. I find it hard to believe that the baht will be able to stay so strong much longer. The strong baht really hurts the Thai exports. It of course hurts the Thai tourism industry. The political wreck should be wrecking the baht as well. I am no expert but it seems very likely that the strong baht is based on Big money holding it up here in Thailand for political reasons. When it does get weaker, and it will, it will crash.

is that rubber sheet that protects your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams in place?

Yes, as it unfolds, it seems that it's not so much the baht is strong as the others extremely weak, the Euro in particular appears to be nosediving. According to the figures, tourism is relatively small beer, and yes exports to the west will be trashed, but perhaps Thailand sees China, Japan, and the Asean countries as more than offsetting this problem.

[chiang mai]

BUT--this too shall end. I find it hard to believe that the baht will be able to stay so strong much longer. The strong baht really hurts the Thai exports. It of course hurts the Thai tourism industry. The political wreck should be wrecking the baht as well. I am no expert but it seems very likely that the strong baht is based on Big money holding it up here in Thailand for political reasons. When it does get weaker, and it will, it will crash.

is that rubber sheet that protects your mattress from the proceeds of your wet dreams in place?

Yes, as it unfolds, it seems that it's not so much the baht is strong as the others extremely weak, the Euro in particular appears to be nosediving. According to the figures, tourism is relatively small beer, and yes exports to the west will be trashed, but perhaps Thailand sees China, Japan, and the Asean countries as more than offsetting this problem.

I read recently that ASEAN is now the top trading partner for Thailand and the US now only accounts for around 10% of the Thai export market so yes, you are correct.

[FarangryBirds]

I am back out to Thailand on 30th May, I've been monitoring the currency situation for a few monhs and am not sure whether to wait too much longer before changing any more money up. In light of recent events in BKK I did think it might work in my favour against the Pound but its still holding firm at 47/48 baht. I think I was getting just over 50 back in November when I was out there.

It seems a Hung Parliament is impending here which apparently will damage the pound further, such a dilmena as to when will be he right time to get more currency!

[MarkyM3]

I am back out to Thailand on 30th May, I've been monitoring the currency situation for a few monhs and am not sure whether to wait too much longer before changing any more money up. In light of recent events in BKK I did think it might work in my favour against the Pound but its still holding firm at 47/48 baht. I think I was getting just over 50 back in November when I was out there.

It seems a Hung Parliament is impending here which apparently will damage the pound further, such a dilmena as to when will be he right time to get more currency!

I have much the same dilemna as you although I am not due in LoS until July.

To hedge my bets, I've paid for internal flights already and was going to pay for all accommodation a few weeks ago, with day-to-day funds being withdrawn from ATM's in LoS.

However, the recent internal problems and FCO edict has caused me to hold off on further expenditure as I'm not willing to travel without valid insurance. I'm hoping we avoid a hung Parliament arising from the UK election as it will inevitably put downward pressure on the GBP.

When I was last in LoS in February I was getting up to 55 to the GBP so the situation has definitely deteriorated. Unfortunately, the UK has no-one to blame for this situation but itself. Whether or not you are a Conservative voter, the only way the pound will recover its current weakness is by them attaining a majority.

Cheers.

Edited May 6, 2010 by MarkyM3

[lannarebirth]

Tough day. My commiserations.

[gharknes]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

[FarangryBirds]

However, the recent internal problems and FCO edict has caused me to hold off on further expenditure as I'm not willing to travel without valid insurance. I'm hoping we avoid a hung Parliament arising from the UK election as it will inevitably put downward pressure on the GBP.

Cheers.

well, at least the FCO have now lowered the threat level but as it stands all systems go for a Hung parliament.

[chiang mai]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

Any thoughts on the winner of the 2:30 at Kempton Park?

[Naam]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

Any thoughts on the winner of the 2:30 at Kempton Park?

what about rain? will it rain this afternoon?

[neilf]

Neeranam says if the baht drops further then some of the undesirables will be kept away or go home.Does that mean if your pension is not high you are an undesirable?

what do you have to do to be undesirable-----------is that a non immi und visa and do you have to show evidence such as photos taken in bars / statements from bar owners / customers/ pizza and chips dropped on path and left etc. that sort of thing

[neilf]

will the baht level stop tiger woods doing his re-hab in the buffallo bar

yes and throb disco in boys town---------thats what i call re-hab after excessess of his nature

[Gary A]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

I certainly don't claim to be an economist but I DO know that to be successful, you have to produce more than you use. If I ran my finances the same as some governments run theirs, I would have starved to death long ago. I wouldn't bet on the baht sinking as long as Thailand produces more than it consumes.

[naklang]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

LOL. Sounds like denial to me. The Sterling is dead meat. You think its depressed now, wait until the North Sea depletes, and depleting it is.........quickly. When the UK becomes a continuous, high volume importer of petroleum, guess what that is going to do to your current account deficit and the value of your "Sterling"? Along with Europe in general.

Not pretty, but there it is. Click on "The End of North Sea Oil" ppt.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp...3d5283be3a0311b

Edited May 7, 2010 by naklang

[FarangryBirds]

I wake to the predicted "Hung Parliament" - GBP has already dropped to 47.47!

[ThaiPauly]

the sterling will remain strong and the dollar will fall along with the euro, the thai baht will be revalued lower within the next 6 months

LOL. Sounds like denial to me. The Sterling is dead meat. You think its depressed now, wait until the North Sea depletes, and depleting it is.........quickly. When the UK becomes a continuous, high volume importer of petroleum, guess what that is going to do to your current account deficit and the value of your "Sterling"? Along with Europe in general.

Not pretty, but there it is. Click on "The End of North Sea Oil" ppt.

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&source=hp...3d5283be3a0311b

True but we have just found oil off the Falkland Islands

I'm not saying it will compensate...but every little helps

[MyNameMe]

Just seen the rates on-line go to down to 47.4 baht for one of those shiny pounds.... how much further can it drop?

MNM

[Goshawk]

.

Edited May 7, 2010 by Goshawk

[Zstarx]

Maybe the Aussie $ will hit parity with the pound before it does with the US $

[ChiangMaiFun]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

[roamer]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

[chiang mai]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

A case of beer says you are wrong on the Labour/Lib Dem pact, take the bet?

[samuibeachcomber]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

A case of beer says you are wrong on the Labour/Lib Dem pact, take the bet?

agree,cons/libs or maybe cons with irish mp's and some independents?

[chiang mai]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

A case of beer says you are wrong on the Labour/Lib Dem pact, take the bet?

agree,cons/libs or maybe cons with irish mp's and some independents?

Yup

[roamer]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

A case of beer says you are wrong on the Labour/Lib Dem pact, take the bet?

I normally put my foot where my mouth is but on this occasion I'll put my money where my mouth is and take the bet

[chiang mai]

Predictions? one month? three month? six months and one year?

My guess is onwards and upwards , mind you, I have been known to be wrong before I think the shakeout at the end of the day looks like it will produce a Labour Liberal Democrat coalition. If that turns out to be the case that might lend some temporary stability to Sterling, I think they will be able to reach some sort of agreement on the amount of cuts that are needed to convince the markets. There is a huge amount of uncertainty at the moment factored into sterling.

A case of beer says you are wrong on the Labour/Lib Dem pact, take the bet?

I normally put my foot where my mouth is but on this occasion I'll put my money where my mouth is and take the bet

A deal is made.

[roamer]

Indeed. And I'm sure that unlike the politico's we will stick with it. Brown just hinting he is prepared to step down.