Thailand Could Deteriorate Into Undeclared Civil War

[webfact]

Thailand could deteriorate into 'undeclared civil war': ICG

by Patrick Falby

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand's prolonged and increasingly deadly stand off between the government and "Red Shirt" protesters could deteriorate into an "undeclared civil war", a leading think-tank has warned.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said the country must consider mediation help from other nations to defuse the political crisis and avoid a slide into further violence.

"The Thai political system has broken down and seems incapable of pulling the country back from the brink of widespread conflict," the ICG report, which was released late Friday, said.

"The stand-off in the streets of Bangkok between the government and Red Shirt protesters is worsening and could deteriorate into an undeclared civil war," it added.

The ICG recommended forming a neutral negotiation committee with the help of international figures such as East Timor President Jose Ramos Horta, a Nobel laureate who recently visited Thailand.

New York-based Human Rights Watch (HRW) on Saturday said security forces and rival protest groups must end violent attacks.

Some 70 bomb and grenade attacks have been carried out by unknown parties in Bangkok since anti-government "Red Shirt" protesters began street protests in mid-March, according to the statement by the rights group.

"Thailand is spiralling further into political violence as protesters, counter-protesters, and security forces respond tit for tat against attacks and provocations," said Brad Adams, Asia director at Human Rights Watch.

"All sides need to rein in their supporters, order the attacks to stop, and negotiate a political solution before the situation escalates," he added in the statement.

Thailand is reeling from the worst political violence in almost two decades in its capital, where 27 people have died and almost 1,000 have been injured in a series of bloody April confrontations.

The most recent deadly clashes occurred on Bangkok's streets Wednesday, when a confrontation between demonstrators and troops left one soldier dead and 18 people injured.

HRW called on the government to hold an independent investigation into recent incidents and prosecute all perpetrators of political violence as defiant Reds occupy key Bangkok areas in a bid to force snap elections.

The six-week demonstrations are the latest chapter in years of turmoil pitting the ruling elite against the mainly poor and rural Reds, who say the government illegitimately came to power in 2008.

Many of the Reds come from Thailand's rural poor and urban working classes and seek the return of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 coup and now lives overseas to avoid a jail term for corruption.

The country is largely split between the Reds and the pro-government "Yellow Shirts", who staged their own street protests that heralded the 2006 coup.

The Reds have been on alert for a crackdown since April 10, when a failed attempt by the army to clear Bangkok's historic area turned into bloody street battles.

-- ©Copyright AFP 2010-05-01

Published with written approval from AFP.

[newsfooter][/newsfooter]

[Somtamnication]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

[Redsunset]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

[elkangorito]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said the country must consider mediation help from other nations to defuse the political crisis and avoid a slide into further violence.

Highly unlikely this will happen as Thai 'pride' will be a major barrier to this commonsense idea.

[Redsunset]

There has been an undeclared civil war since the coup in 2006. This article is 4 years too late.

Very sad situation here in Thailand.

And this is just another "flare-up" of this insidious conflict that finds its roots in selfishness, and perhaps a democratic system that is too young and growing up too fast. Like an adolescent quickly outgrowing his/her clothes... Thailand just cannot handle its new found wealth. They are exploiting all the bad habits of capitalism.

[Redsunset]

The International Crisis Group (ICG) said the country must consider mediation help from other nations to defuse the political crisis and avoid a slide into further violence.

Highly unlikely this will happen as Thai 'pride' will be a major barrier to this commonsense idea.

You bet. What makes these external interests/groups more capable of de-fusing the political situation? I realize that objectivity plays a role, but are there many examples where external intervention in the conflicts between internal factions in a country actually resultant in a positive solution?

Anyone?

Edited May 1, 2010 by Redsunset

[bangon04]

Wouldn't it be odd if the Philippines managed to have a peaceful and civilised election but nobody noticed because everyone is looking at Thailand??

[Mekhong]

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand's prolonged and increasingly deadly stand off between the government and "Red Shirt" protesters could deteriorate into an "undeclared civil war", a leading think-tank has warned.

Unfortunately the 'undeclared civil war' has already started and will continue for many months if not years to come. The government may one day be able to physically clear up the Rajaprasong / red-area mess, but as long as they sit back and wait for the reds to implode, this will not be in the near future. As the reds continue with their acts of aggression and lose suppport, the mob will disperse, only to blend into society and form again in hardcore, extremist splinter groups. Expect long-term lawlessness and violence throughout this once-wonderful and sanook country

[Artisi]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

[fairandbalanced]

International observers, maybe from other ASEAN nations could calm tensions and bring all sides to the negotiating table, but will the current powers that be accept this?

Only a few days ago, FM Kasit ruled out 'foreign involvement' in this crisis and Deputy PM Suthep refused an offer of UN assistance in 'The South' last year.

[hammered]

It is nice to know that rest of the world is concerned about Thailand's welfare. I just wonder how their involvement will expedite a solution. Particularly since many overseas observers don't have the slightest clue what is below the intense superficial conflicts.

An incisive comment

[whybother]

BANGKOK (AFP) -- Thailand's prolonged and increasingly deadly stand off between the government and "Red Shirt" protesters could deteriorate into an "undeclared civil war", a leading think-tank has warned.

Unfortunately the 'undeclared civil war' has already started and will continue for many months if not years to come. The government may one day be able to physically clear up the Rajaprasong / red-area mess, but as long as they sit back and wait for the reds to implode, this will not be in the near future. As the reds continue with their acts of aggression and lose suppport, the mob will disperse, only to blend into society and form again in hardcore, extremist splinter groups. Expect long-term lawlessness and violence throughout this once-wonderful and sanook country

If the reds are cleared by the authorities by force, that will push the reds in other areas to raise the stakes, possibly leading to civil war.

If the protests die a natural death, there will be no impetus for the reds outside Bangkok to continue the violence.

The reds are already showing signs of internal conflict, and they are clearly losing support.

Unfortunately, the government needs to wait a bit longer.

[elkangorito]

...but are there many examples where external intervention in the conflicts between internal factions in a country actually resultant in a positive solution?

Anyone?

From http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/a...nche/index.html

In 1950 the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to the first non-white person, the African-American and United Nations (UN) official Ralph Bunche. He received the Peace Prize for his efforts as mediator between Arabs and Jews in the Israeli-Arab war in 1948-1949. These efforts resulted in armistice agreements between the new state of Israel and four of its Arab neighbours: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

Somalia.

http://www.somalilandtimes.net/sl/2009/379/3.shtml

From http://www.apmec.unisa.edu.au/apmf/2008/pa...MOHD%20AMAN.pdf

On 28th February 2008, the world watched Kofi Annan and his team and African Union chairman President Jakaya Kikwete as they brought together the two rivals in signing a historical deal which was the key to a peaceful and agreeable settlement of the postelection impasse.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on this occasion that Kenyan’s leaders have reached a power-sharing agreement that represents a triumph for peace and diplomacy, and a renunciation of the violence that has scarred a country of such enormous potential.

There are many others too.

Edited May 1, 2010 by elkangorito

[Herm]

One can't help but notice discourse between the reds already - if the government waits much longer, this is going to develop into a country ruled by "warlords" , occupying different regions - Thailand will have similar situations like in Africa with the "hooties" and the Tooties" fighting for land.

Katthiya is the chap to watch right now, he is probably the most dangerous of the lot. Those many tons of explosives and arms that disappeared from his army barracks are somewhere and his frequent visits with Thaksin in Cambodia show clearly where his loyalty lies. Here is a former General who has burned all bridges behind him with no way back, lots of weapons and an unknown number of loyal soldiers who support him and Thaksin.

The unknown location of those arms and explosives is surely worrying the Abhisit government right now

Edited May 1, 2010 by Herm

[whiterussian]

One can't help but notice discourse between the reds already - if the government waits much longer, this is going to develop into a country ruled by "warlords" , occupying different regions - Thailand will have similar situations like in Africa with the "hooties" and the Tooties" fighting for land.

so, it's better to have the generals running the show a la Burma, in order to stop the Reds having a militia?

I would have thought the unbridled power of a junta would be a much more likely situation to turn into a 'hootie', 'tootie' 'warlords' running the show...

sounds like the yellows dont want an election.. ever... again..

[lazurus]

International observers, maybe from other ASEAN nations could calm tensions and bring all sides to the negotiating table, but will the current powers that be accept this?

Only a few days ago, FM Kasit ruled out 'foreign involvement' in this crisis and Deputy PM Suthep refused an offer of UN assistance in 'The South' last year.

What are they going to observe? Will the black brigade call them to ride along when they mount a grenade attack? Will they be invited to watch as the reds storm hospitals, government offices, and private enterprises. Will they be allowed access to the protest site, and be able to monitor elections and prevent cash for votes? Or are they just there to supervise the army? International observers are useless because a lot of what the reds do is done secretly at night so they can hide their involvement.

[hammered]

Funnily enough there aint no civil war like feeling at all round where I live and people dont have a lto of time for poltics. A few months ago the reds had sonme sympathy but that has mostly gone now. Probably a slight increase in anti-red feeling but overall it aint nowhere near kill each other level. Yo used to get the odd truck filled with children in truth today T-shirts spending thei r hard earned money on th eway back to whereevr they came from and very very occasionally you'd see a red ribbon on a car aerial. Now you dont see any of that stuff. The multicolours have had a few rallies. The poor never really were very red and arent any more. The red support was always middle class but very little now. The yellows have a bit of support but most people are neither. Everyone gets on.

Soon I will go up North. Last time I went it was similar to here with most people uninterested in the politics. A few red shirts but the only poster a Democrat campaign poster on one rural house. Everyone got along fine. A few missed Thaksin, far more than were red supporters. It will be interesting this time but from what I have heard people are too busy working and making money to be too involved in politics. Still the local drug dealer would sit in her house watching red TV all day long, but noboduy liked her because she was a drug dealer. There were no yellows but there were Dems.

I just get the feelign that polticios and power players by pushing for their owbn selfish reasons their notions of civil war will make it a fait accompli eventually which is a tragedy because Im sure right now most of the ocuntry is nowhere near this, However the players on all sides dont care about that as they want powwer and all of it accumulated in their gangs hands

[eastlight]

If the people that are charged with up-holding the law etc did their job as they are supposed to, there wouldn't be any need for anyone to do anything other than their day-to-day job.

If those that are supposed to uphold the law, any we all know who they are, actually did so a lot of Thailand's problems would be solved.

[Herm]

One can't help but notice discourse between the reds already - if the government waits much longer, this is going to develop into a country ruled by "warlords" , occupying different regions - Thailand will have similar situations like in Africa with the "hooties" and the Tooties" fighting for land.

so, it's better to have the generals running the show a la Burma, in order to stop the Reds having a militia?

I would have thought the unbridled power of a junta would be a much more likely situation to turn into a 'hootie', 'tootie' 'warlords' running the show...

sounds like the yellows dont want an election.. ever... again..

Even if the reds are left alone, there is clearly a divide already. In my opinion, they will not fizzle away, but realizing that they can not achieve their goal and are therefor in danger of spending serious time in prison, the leaders and hardcore reds will escape and probably split into 2 or more groups, going underground to fight a Guerrilla war. This is basically the same as Terrorism full scale and will bring the country to its knees.

You are dealing with people who are way past negotiations, people who have nothing to loose.

Unless the government takes the opportunity and moves in quick, making sure to capture all the leaders, forget Thailand for years to come as a place one would want to live

[mjnaus]

Boy, people do love their daily dose of drama, don't they?

[elkangorito]

Geez! I hope the wheels don't full off too quickly...I'll need about a month to finalise my affairs here before I 'escape' the impending civil war.

[noahvail]

Geez! I hope the wheels don't full off too quickly...I'll need about a month to finalise my affairs here before I 'escape' the impending civil war.

Now, that's where planning comes in. I can be packed and on the road 10 minutes after the call comes through.

[lazurus]

The majority of Thais don't want a civil war. Only a small number of die hard reds like Seh Daeng and his followers would be active participants. The police and army officers in the upper levels have too much to lose, they seem to be keeping themselves out of harms way as much as possible. You might end up with the red guards waging a terrorist campaign, but once red city closes down and things go back to normal they won't have a safe haven to operate from and will be hunted down. Talk of civil war is just part of the PR campaign. In all probability funds are drying up, public opinion is turning against them, and the average protester just doesn't have the attention span to keep at it much longer. I'm surprised they weren't bored to death weeks ago.

Edited May 1, 2010 by lazurus

[Jerrytheyoung]

The majority of Thais don't want a civil war. Only a small number of die hard reds like Seh Daeng and his followers would be active participants. The police and army officers in the upper levels have too much to lose, they seem to be keeping themselves out of harms way as much as possible. You might end up with the red guards waging a terrorist campaign, but once red city closes down and things go back to normal they won't have a safe haven to operate from and will be hunted down. Talk of civil war is just part of the PR campaign. In all probability funds are drying up, public opinion is turning against them, and the average protester just doesn't have the attention span to keep at it much longer. I'm surprised they weren't bored to death weeks ago.

I disagree, civil wars are starting with a minority of active people. Some Army and Police officers are deeply involved on either side, they can loose a lot from a return to normalcy if there is no preliminary agreement. (which has to include an amnesty for those who have no blood on their hands)

[Jingthing]

The majority of civilians in ANY civil war never want a civil war. And yet they do happen.

[whiterussian]

Even if the reds are left alone, there is clearly a divide already. In my opinion, they will not fizzle away, but realizing that they can not achieve their goal and are therefor in danger of spending serious time in prison, the leaders and hardcore reds will escape and probably split into 2 or more groups, going underground to fight a Guerrilla war. This is basically the same as Terrorism full scale and will bring the country to its knees.

You are dealing with people who are way past negotiations, people who have nothing to loose.

Unless the government takes the opportunity and moves in quick, making sure to capture all the leaders, forget Thailand for years to come as a place one would want to live

The government only has x months left! They will be under the rule of the reds come election day! Doesn't make sense to crack heads open, knowing full well that soon they will be out of power...

If the yellows do get elected back in hoooraaay!! problem solved. normal country... govt happy, majority happy, army happy, police happy (or in their place)... and THEN any armed resistance can be dealt with using snipers, anti-terror tactics etc...

Im not supporting the reds militant actions, just wishing they would set a date for elections... pronto

[koosdeboer]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

[Tejas]

Geez! I hope the wheels don't full off too quickly...I'll need about a month to finalise my affairs here before I 'escape' the impending civil war.

Now, that's where planning comes in. I can be packed and on the road 10 minutes after the call comes through.

It is odd, in a way, that so many posters minimize what is happening as if it is not happening.

It is happening........right before all of our eyes.

The "economic decline" has been going on for at least ten years now.

The problem, itself linked to the economic decline and massive income inequality (as well as outside influence), has been growing daily.

I agree with a few posters that said Thailand will not accept outside help because of "pride."

I don't think there is much we can do except wait for the "Thai solution" to materialize.

[metisdead]

interesting article in the washingtonpost. Can't give you the link because it's sensitive.

Found the article, sensitive is the word alright.

[JohnLeech]

...but are there many examples where external intervention in the conflicts between internal factions in a country actually resultant in a positive solution?

Anyone?

.....These efforts resulted in armistice agreements between the new state of Israel and four of its Arab neighbours: Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.

Somalia. ... Kenya ....There are many others too.

Too early to say with Kenya, but certainly with Isreal/Lebanon/Syria and in Somalia, as with "many others", there was no lasting solution, just a short term compromise that was no better than putting a band-aid on a sucking chest wound. The only long term solutions would seem to be those found primarily by those involved.

The majority of civilians in ANY civil war never want a civil war. And yet they do happen.

JT, the first time (I think) I have agreed unreservedly with anything you have said - although I would add that the majority of the military in any war never want a war (and yet they do happen)