Staunch Thaksin Foe Takes Command Of Thai Army

[webfact]

Staunch Thaksin foe takes command of Thai army

by Daniel Rook

BANGKOK (AFP) -- A new commander-in-chief is taking the helm of Thailand's powerful army -- a staunch royalist who is expected to pursue a hardline stance against the "Red Shirt" anti-government protest movement.

General Prayut Chan-O-Cha, 56, takes charge Friday at a crucial juncture following the deadliest political unrest in decades and in light of uncertainty over what royal succession will eventually mean for the kingdom.

Thai society remains deeply divided following the Red Shirt protests, which triggered a series of confrontations between demonstrators and armed troops in April and May, leaving 91 people dead, mostly civilians.

Prayut is seen as a strong opponent of the red-clad movement and its hero Thaksin Shinawatra, the fugitive ex-premier accused by the Thai authorities of bankrolling the protests and inciting unrest from overseas.

Prayut is reported to have overseen the deadly military assault on the Reds' fortified encampment in the retail heart of Bangkok in May.

"I think with this man taking charge, the prospect of the Red Shirts coming back will be even more difficult because we know he's taking a hardline approach," said Thailand expert Pavin Chachavalpongpun.

"It also reflects how desperately the traditional elite want to hold on to power by putting their own people in key positions in the military," said Pavin, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Prayut, who is being promoted from second in command, has long been seen as the top contender to replace retiring chief General Anupong Paojinda.

So it was no surprise when he was named for the top job by Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who himself came to power with the support of the army in a 2008 parliamentary vote.

Prayut is seen as a close ally of Anupong. Both are former commanders of the 21st Infantry Regiment, whose special role is to provide protection for the queen.

Both were also central to the 2006 coup that ousted tycoon-turned-premier Thaksin, who is hailed by the Reds for his policies for the masses but seen by the establishment as corrupt, autocratic and a threat to the revered monarchy.

During the April-May crisis, Anupong appeared reluctant to use force to disperse the red-shirted demonstrators, calling for a political solution in a country that has seen 18 coups or attempted coups since 1932.

In contrast, "Prayut would more likely deal quickly and proactively in quelling pro-Thaksin anti-government demonstrators," said Thailand analyst Paul Chambers, a senior research fellow at Heidelberg University.

"He may be more prone to publicly vocalise military displeasure with civilian governments -- and threaten coups as Thai generals did 20 years ago."

The appointment of the general, who could stay in the post until 2014, is expected to shore up the Thai establishment's grip on power at a time of considerable uncertainty for the kingdom.

"With the rise of Prayut, we will witness the continuing clout of the Queen's Guard over the army and the armed forces," said Chambers.

A recent string of grenade blasts in Bangkok and the return of thousands of Red Shirts to the streets earlier this month for a short rally have reinforced the view of many observers that the political crisis is far from over.

Thailand's revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej, seen by some Thais as a demigod, has been a stabilising force for the country but he turns 83 in December and has been hospitalised for a year.

Abhisit, accused by critics of being a "puppet" for an unelected elite and the army, told AFP in an interview in July he hoped the military would remain out of politics and "respect the constitution and the parliamentary system".

Some observers think Prayut could enjoy a better relationship with the government than his predecessor Anupong.

"Abhisit owes a lot of favour to the military because of the way he came to power," said Pavin. "And now you see Abhisit paying back... so I guess at many levels the military now owes Abhisit."

-- (c) Copyright AFP 2010-09-29

[Insight]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

[onnut]

Lets hope he can do his job properly!

I wonder what Taksins next move will be.

[rubl]

"It also reflects how desperately the traditional elite want to hold on to power by putting their own people in key positions in the military," said Pavin, a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore.

Prayut, who is being promoted from second in command, has long been seen as the top contender to replace retiring chief General Anupong Paojinda.

I can only assume that Maj-Gen. Prayut has the right qualities and met all the criteria to be commander-in-chief. The fact that he's anti-Thaksin is just a bonus.

Is there anyone who has better qualification and is available ?

[ChiangMaiFun]

Not good news... when will Thailand learn to keep politics out of the services - better to have chosen a 'neutral' - which they all should be of course.

[GarryP]

^I agree with you. A person of power in Thailand who won't take any sh*t is unlikely to think twice about taking over power if he does not get what he wants. Also, it just seems a way to keep the masses at bay so it will remain an "us and them" situation.

[mufcsamui]

Thailand's powerful army, define powerful

[GarryP]

Powerful politically. As a fighting force they've had their collective bottom smacked a few times. The latest probably being the fiasco with Laos in Romklao.

[OzMick]

IMHO Mr Rook is sensationalizing this story.

The 2IC, a staunch monarchist from an elite unit, is promoted on the retirement of his boss, which is no surprise to anyone. Why then is it implied that favours are owed to and by the PM and the Army? Did anyone ever think that a pro-Thaksin general would get the job? Is there such a man?

It is suggested that it would be better if a neutral was put in charge. How does a military leader remain neutral when the remnants of armed insurrectionists are still carrying out a bombing campaign?

[hanuman1]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

And the army will more likely have the government do its bidding to the point of possibly threatening coups again.

Not so much like the west.

[Buchholz]

Lets hope he can do his job properly!

I wonder what Taksins next move will be.

There's a few of Sae Daeng's Warriors that aren't incarcerated that are available to him.

[Pib]

For the red or yellow or whatever color shirt supporters I know, it's the Army they fear when it comes to protest actions; not the police. This was true even before the recent major protests/riots in Bangkok and around the country. The Army is very powerful politically. And all the politicians know, based on numerous military coups over the decades, the armed forces can quickly remove a civilian govt from power...just ask Thaksin.

[Thailand]

Not good news... when will Thailand learn to keep politics out of the services - better to have chosen a 'neutral' - which they all should be of course.

100%

[Insight]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

And the army will more likely have the government do its bidding to the point of possibly threatening coups again.

Not so much like the west.

All this coup talk has been coming from one side only, and as with so many other claims from that side (watermelon soldiers, secret tapes etc) they've remained completely groundless.

The government has appointed a military command it believes will best serve its interest. Standard government procedure - get over it.

[jfchandler]

The guy is Paojinda's hand-picked successor and second-in-command...

It would have been a surprise only if someone else has been chosen....

The only question is, will he be any MORE effective and decisive that Paojinda was...

[Buchholz]

the armed forces can quickly remove a civilian govt from power...just ask Thaksin.

nearly six years is not what I would nearly call "quickly"

[GarryP]

Standard procedure, yes. But look at the previous coups. They weren't exactly held for the interests of the reds were they. They were alll about protecting their own interests which just so happened to coincide with the interests of many of the elite too. I think a top man aligned to the elite is much more to be feared than one aligned with the people. Note, I say people and not the reds, (whose leaders are not representative of the people for the most part).

[Insight]

Standard procedure, yes. But look at the previous coups. They weren't exactly held for the interests of the reds were they. They were alll about protecting their own interests which just so happened to coincide with the interests of many of the elite too. I think a top man aligned to the elite is much more to be feared than one aligned with the people. Note, I say people and not the reds, (whose leaders are not representative of the people for the most part).

"They weren't exactly held for the interests of the reds were they."

What coup are you referring to? The last one was in 2006 (which elections followed about a year after, which Thaksin's proxy party won). Before that there were no "reds".

[hanuman1]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

And the army will more likely have the government do its bidding to the point of possibly threatening coups again.

Not so much like the west.

All this coup talk has been coming from one side only, and as with so many other claims from that side (watermelon soldiers, secret tapes etc) they've remained completely groundless.

The government has appointed a military command it believes will best serve its interest. Standard government procedure - get over it.

So a senior research fellow at Heidelberg University and a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore are both from 'that' side and they both need to 'get over it'. Is that what you're saying? For it is they I was paraphrasing.

We bow to your enlightened knowledge, my Paduwan Master. Got any other gems? Perhaps you can give me a few lottery numbers.

What a joke.

[Insight]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

And the army will more likely have the government do its bidding to the point of possibly threatening coups again.

Not so much like the west.

All this coup talk has been coming from one side only, and as with so many other claims from that side (watermelon soldiers, secret tapes etc) they've remained completely groundless.

The government has appointed a military command it believes will best serve its interest. Standard government procedure - get over it.

So a senior research fellow at Heidelberg University and a fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore are both from 'that' side and they both need to 'get over it'. Is that what you're saying? For it is they I was paraphrasing.

We bow to your enlightened knowledge, my Paduwan Master. Got any other gems? Perhaps you can give me a few lottery numbers.

What a joke.

Well sorry if I didn't touch your intellectual buttons but frankly anybody I find such observers using Amsterdam-esque PR-ridden vocabulary such as "elite consolidating their power" cringe worthy.

In my view (and a fair number of others) this is nothing more than a measured response to the biggest proven, real threat to Thailand's stability in a large number of years. Given the actions of the red shirts earlier this year and the ongoing bombing campaign around the city almost daily a more moderate person filling such a position would do little to ease concerns of a large number of ordinary Thais.

Of course a decision like this is going to irk a large number of red supporters and sympathisers (hi). But what sort of response were they expecting?

[hanuman1]

In my view (and a fair number of others) this is nothing more than a measured response to the biggest proven, real threat to Thailand's stability in a large number of years.

I think this sentence contains the nub of the problem. The question is 'Can there be change without it being perceived as instability?'. If you don't want change then over time you will end up facing a growing tide of dissatisfaction. On the scale of global political history, that is pretty much a given.

If you can conceive of how change can be a positive thing, then surely you must be prepared to give up a degree of 'stability', in order to achieve that change.

I know you will point to the radical fringes - the people who actually lit fires etc - among 'that' side, but given that they are only the militant/crazy end of a rather larger movement who would like to see change delivered peacefully (if at all possible), it does seem that people who yearn for 'stability' also don't actually want to see any change at all.

[EnSvenskTiger]

The health of a society can be measured by the force it takes to police it.

Viking

[GarryP]

Standard procedure, yes. But look at the previous coups. They weren't exactly held for the interests of the reds were they. They were alll about protecting their own interests which just so happened to coincide with the interests of many of the elite too. I think a top man aligned to the elite is much more to be feared than one aligned with the people. Note, I say people and not the reds, (whose leaders are not representative of the people for the most part).

"They weren't exactly held for the interests of the reds were they."

What coup are you referring to? The last one was in 2006 (which elections followed about a year after, which Thaksin's proxy party won). Before that there were no "reds".

My point entirely. I rest my case.

PS I agree with the Hanuman.

[OzMick]

double post - server problem

[Insight]

In my view (and a fair number of others) this is nothing more than a measured response to the biggest proven, real threat to Thailand's stability in a large number of years.

I think this sentence contains the nub of the problem. The question is 'Can there be change without it being perceived as instability?'. If you don't want change then over time you will end up facing a growing tide of dissatisfaction. On the scale of global political history, that is pretty much a given.

If you can conceive of how change can be a positive thing, then surely you must be prepared to give up a degree of 'stability', in order to achieve that change.

I know you will point to the radical fringes - the people who actually lit fires etc - among 'that' side, but given that they are only the militant/crazy end of a rather larger movement who would like to see change delivered peacefully (if at all possible), it does seem that people who yearn for 'stability' also don't actually want to see any change at all.

Pryuath is described as a "Staunch Thaksin foe", not a "Staunch red shirt foe".

Are the two inseparable?

[rubl]

In my view (and a fair number of others) this is nothing more than a measured response to the biggest proven, real threat to Thailand's stability in a large number of years.

I think this sentence contains the nub of the problem. The question is 'Can there be change without it being perceived as instability?'. If you don't want change then over time you will end up facing a growing tide of dissatisfaction. On the scale of global political history, that is pretty much a given.

If you can conceive of how change can be a positive thing, then surely you must be prepared to give up a degree of 'stability', in order to achieve that change.

I know you will point to the radical fringes - the people who actually lit fires etc - among 'that' side, but given that they are only the militant/crazy end of a rather larger movement who would like to see change delivered peacefully (if at all possible), it does seem that people who yearn for 'stability' also don't actually want to see any change at all.

In line with what you say, you could add that the UDD striving to get k. Thaksin back don't want a real change, just the old situation back.

The red-shirts have valid grievances, but need to formulate a program and find some 'real concerned' leaders. Thai society has to move forward and preferrably in a relatively peaceful way.

Although PM Abhisit may want change, it starts to look more and more he's not willing to fight too hard for it. Or maybe he's just getting tired of the in-fighting, back-stabbing, etc. Well, he wanted to be a politician

[Changian]

Presumably appointing a hardline anti-redshirt as Army C-in-C is part of Abhisit's reconciliation process.

[OzMick]

In my view (and a fair number of others) this is nothing more than a measured response to the biggest proven, real threat to Thailand's stability in a large number of years.

I think this sentence contains the nub of the problem. The question is 'Can there be change without it being perceived as instability?'. If you don't want change then over time you will end up facing a growing tide of dissatisfaction. On the scale of global political history, that is pretty much a given.

If you can conceive of how change can be a positive thing, then surely you must be prepared to give up a degree of 'stability', in order to achieve that change.

I know you will point to the radical fringes - the people who actually lit fires etc - among 'that' side, but given that they are only the militant/crazy end of a rather larger movement who would like to see change delivered peacefully (if at all possible), it does seem that people who yearn for 'stability' also don't actually want to see any change at all.

6 months after the event and already you are re-writing history! What positive changes were on the manifesto of the reds? The ONLY demand was elections before this appointment was made, purely in the interests of Mr T, restoring his funds and position. Yet social change is being made, by the people who yearn for stability.

As for the comments of the "learned fellows", journalists make a habit of shopping around for "experts" to support their view. There may well be 50 other experts who look at this and go "Ho hum, so what?" but they aren't newsworthy, are they?

[givenall]

So, in short, red shirt anti-government protests (read - riots) will only be allowed to drag on for days and not weeks.

Just like the west.

I hope you are right, Also can he put a commando together and go to bring Thaksin to Justice to eliminate this problem which could speed up the reconciliation process.

[chainarong]

Just the same old stuff, that's been strutting its stuff for the past thousand years , Army and Government , Government and Army, the trouble is now they have delusions of grandeur , like we are a democracy ops, sorry that's , Thai democracy.