Thailand May Be Hit By Devastating Storm: Environment Minister

[webfact]

Thailand may be hit by devastating storm: Suwit

A storm with devastating effects like typhoons Gay and Linda may hit Thailand later this year, according to Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti.

"I am quite concerned about this possibility," Suwit said Tuesday.

He said he made the grim prediction based on presently-available information.

Suwit said relevant agencies were now closely monitoring the situation and he urged people to keep abreast of weather updates.

"People will have to prepare necessary measures to deal with the powerful storm if it arises," he said.

-- The Nation 2010-11-16

[screamingeagle]

And how does this gentleman know this?

[Jingthing]

Not sure how he knows but in the US there are meteorologists who make rough predictions at the beginning of each storm season as to their estimate of the number of storms. So such predictions are sometimes based on some kind of scientific basis. Obviously, not perfect, but better than earthquake predictions.

[MSingh]

So am i reading it right or is there not any basis whatsoever, to this Fella's " prediction " ??

If not, how on Earth is this/he making the National Press Association ??

[Nawtier]

Witchdoctor told him....not sure which doctor....just one of em.

[Evergreen]

So am i reading it right or is there not any basis whatsoever, to this Fella's " prediction " ??

If not, how on Earth is this/he making the National Press Association ??

That was exactly my thoughts as well! Maybe he can see into the future and can predict storms weeks before they've even been formed. Mind you it's somehwat vague as he says it could be sometime later this year!

[slapout]

Maybe he aspires to be in a ministry that handles the aftermath (money) of the natural disasters.The Resources and Environment group may be a little short due to the drought, flood, relief being spread around.

Then again, it may have this fellows day in the barrel to speak to the press and he was not notified ahead of time. Not knowing all the story (if thats possible) several additional could be brought up but doubt the answers would be forthcoming.

[nong38]

I saw them message on the bottom of a bottle of blend 285

[lodesafun]

That was exactly my thoughts as well! Maybe he can see into the future and can predict storms weeks before they've even been formed. Mind you it's somehwat vague as he says it could be sometime later this year!

Devastating? well I guess that depends on who you talk to. It's not much of a prediction but I would'nt bet against it.

Looking at the shape of Thailands eastern coastline, I'd think it's been catching storms for a long time.

[slapout]

Maybe he aspires to be in a ministry that handles the aftermath (money) of the natural disasters.The Resources and Environment group may be a little short due to the drought, flood, relief being spread around.

Then again, it may have this fellows day in the barrel to speak to the press and he was not notified ahead of time. Not knowing all the story (if thats possible) several additional could be brought up but doubt the answers would be forthcoming.

[slapout]

Maybe he aspires to be in a ministry that handles the aftermath (money) of the natural disasters.The Resources and Environment group may be a little short due to the drought, flood, relief being spread around.

Then again, it may have this fellows day in the barrel to speak to the press and he was not notified ahead of time. Not knowing all the story (if thats possible) several additional could be brought up but doubt the answers would be forthcoming.

[Kan Win]

One should really read and learn

His Warning Ignored,

Thai Meteorologist

Now Plays Key Role

Mr. Smith's Tsunami Fears

Caused Panic, Scorn in '98;

'We Thought It Was a Joke'

BANGKOK, Thailand -- Seven years ago, Smith Dharmasaroja shook Thailand with a bold and frightening prediction.

"I reaffirm that a tsunami is going to occur for sure," said Mr. Smith, a government official who had once been the nation's chief meteorologist.

The Link

Up to you folks, take it or leave it, but please do not joke about this.

Sawadee

[vahack]

One should really read and learn

The Link

Up to you folks, take it or leave it, but please do not joke about this.

Sawadee

ya really. global heating and cooling causes hurricanes and tsunamis, and those climate stats are known 6-12 months ahead. tsunamis are predicted because they can predict plate shifts. they expect the biggest earthquake in 50 years to hit Souther California by the end of the year. science does exist.

you would think the drunk farangs in Thailand would stay off the net and stop posting idiotic statements, but what else they gonna do?

thats what TV is here for

[Soutpeel]

ya really. global heating and cooling causes hurricanes and tsunamis

Must have missed that day in geography class...!!.....didnt realise global heating and cooling caused tsunami's......

Me thinks the esteemed gentleman concerned is just stating the f*kcing obvious.... Songkla/Hat Yai...flooded out a week ago, havent have a typhoon across the gulf for a few years and we are in the Typhoon "season".....so my prediction....we are most likely due for something this year..

[Pib]

I predict the sun may come up and go down tomorrow...and I dare any of you to disprove this possibility!

[anterian]

Satellite remote sensing of oceanic currents and surface temperatures, plus information on variations in the global jet streams, velocity, positions and temperatures are making general predictions quite scientifically possible. High speed supercomputers enable this to be modelled globally, the main uncertainty is choosing an appropriate cell size for the model. Meteorological predictions is an art which is rapidly becoming a science.

[jybkk]

I picture the interview like this:

Expert: There is a higher possibility for devastating tropical storm to hit Thailand this year because records show a higher activity this season.

Journalist: Really? Wow! When will it happen?

Expert: I mean, It could happen. We have to be prepared, just in case.

Journalist: Ok, but do you think it could happen before the end of the year?

Expert: Huh. Yes, it could happen anytime. This year, next year, or not. We just have to consider the eventuality.

Then the newspaper title:

EXPERT WARNS DEVASTATING STORM ON ITS WAY TO BANGKOK

[geriatrickid]

^^^^^ You aint so far ff the mark. It happens all the time with the public health officials. I feel for some of these people that make a rational statement only to see it mangled by the time it gets in a "news" feed. Be understanding folks.

[thaiphoon]

1 off-topic post removed.

[needforspeed]

I picture the interview like this:

Expert: There is a higher possibility for devastating tropical storm to hit Thailand this year because records show a higher activity this season.

Journalist: Really? Wow! When will it happen?

Expert: I mean, It could happen. We have to be prepared, just in case.

Journalist: Ok, but do you think it could happen before the end of the year?

Expert: Huh. Yes, it could happen anytime. This year, next year, or not. We just have to consider the eventuality.

Then the newspaper title:

EXPERT WARNS DEVASTATING STORM ON ITS WAY TO BANGKOK

Media, in many cases a big entertainment joke and we all fall for it.

[webfact]

WEATHER CRISIS

Forecasters fear huge storm brewing

By The Nation

Predictions of typhoons are worrisome, says minister, tells public to monitor reports

A devastating storm like typhoons Gay and Linda could strike Thailand this year, Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti said yesterday.

"I’m quite concerned," he said, adding that the grim prediction was based on currently available information.

Agencies are closely monitoring developments and the public should keep abreast of weather updates, he said. "People will have to prepare necessary measures to deal with what may happen."

Wanchai Sak-udomchai, head of the weather bureau for the Southern provinces along the east coast, said a monsoon might hit the country late this month.

Torrential rains have washed out dozens of provinces in the past two months, resulting in 227 deaths, including 72 in the South.

Although flood waters have subsided in 35 provinces, up to 16 others remain inundated, affecting 928,237 people.

Rain if not heavy downpours continued in Southern provinces including Nakhon Si Thammarat, Surat Thani and Chumphon.

"Although the rainfall is not as bad as weeks ago, we must stay vigilant," Wanchai said.

Mountains in the South, in particular, are waterlogged and more precipitation could trigger mudslides.

Many places, including Moo 7 of tambon Pak Mak in Surat Thani’s Chaiya district, have suffered landslides. More than 400 people there have taken shelter inside a school for four days.

Adichart Surinkham, spokesman for the Mineral Resources Department, said a team was examining a fissure along the Khao Luang mountain range in Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Jaroon Payabarn, kamnan of tambon La-ai in the province’s Chawang district, said initial surveys by village heads and local hunters found that the crack was widening at a cliff.

"That cliff is about 1,000 metres [high]. If it collapses, huge damage can be expected," he said.

In 1989, Typhoon Gay formed in the Gulf of Thailand and caused significant damage in Chumphon province. In 1997, Typhoon Linda caused flooding and some deaths in Thailand after devastating parts of Vietnam; it was the worst storm to hit that country in a century.

-- The Nation 2010-11-17

[LaoPo]

WEATHER CRISIS

Forecasters fear huge storm brewing

By The Nation

Predictions of typhoons are worrisome, says minister, tells public to monitor reports

Many places, including Moo 7 of tambon Pak Mak in Surat Thani's Chaiya district, have suffered landslides. More than 400 people there have taken shelter inside a school for four days.

Adichart Surinkham, spokesman for the Mineral Resources Department, said a team was examining a fissure along the Khao Luang mountain range in Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Jaroon Payabarn, kamnan of tambon La-ai in the province's Chawang district, said initial surveys by village heads and local hunters found that the crack was widening at a cliff.

"That cliff is about 1,000 metres [high]. If it collapses, huge damage can be expected," he said.

In 1989, Typhoon Gay formed in the Gulf of Thailand and caused significant damage in Chumphon province. In 1997, Typhoon Linda caused flooding and some deaths in Thailand after devastating parts of Vietnam; it was the worst storm to hit that country in a century.

-- The Nation 2010-11-17

....A cliff of 1,000 meters high? Is he sure? Are there cliffs in Surat Thani (gulf area) that are that high ?

Even if he meant 1,000 Ft (some 300 meters) and the cliff collapses it would mean a tsunami hitting the islands, Koh Tao, Samui, Phangan within minutes......

LaoPo

[animatic]

Satellite remote sensing of oceanic currents and surface temperatures, plus information on variations in the global jet streams, velocity, positions and temperatures are making general predictions quite scientifically possible. High speed supercomputers enable this to be modeled globally, the main uncertainty is choosing an appropriate cell size for the model. Meteorological predictions is an art which is rapidly becoming a science.

I agree, and add this to historical patterns as a reference.

For example they know the conditions that spawned Gay and Linda and if they see similar conditions in place, it is not unreasonable to expect 'an increased probability' of a similar occurrence. Of course some other element could change, but better to have warned that a large scale pattern exists that historically has created a devastating storm, and be ridiculed for it, than to say nothing and be reviled for it.

It has been sometime since a large storm hit, and this also raises the odds it will happen. '89 and then '97 an 8 year gap, and to now a 13 year gap. This may also be tied in with the recurrence of El Nino and La Nina and their affects on both ocean and jet stream currents and temperatures.

A classic example is the '38 hurricane in New England,; no one knew it was coming and it caused utter destruction. In hindsight they could recognize the patterns, and since then have given warnings in advance, and this has saved countless lives, including this year. These warnings often start earlier in the season, when greater numbers larger scale storms fit into past patterns.

Are we going to get precision of warning this far in advance? No. But we are being told the likelihood is increased and to keep vigilant. An lets not fall into the villagers ridiculing the boy who cried wolf attitude, because the wolf DID arrive.

Edited November 17, 2010 by animatic

[animatic]

WEATHER CRISIS

Forecasters fear huge storm brewing

By The Nation

Predictions of typhoons are worrisome, says minister, tells public to monitor reports

Many places, including Moo 7 of tambon Pak Mak in Surat Thani's Chaiya district, have suffered landslides. More than 400 people there have taken shelter inside a school for four days.

Adichart Surinkham, spokesman for the Mineral Resources Department, said a team was examining a fissure along the Khao Luang mountain range in Nakhon Si Thammarat.

Jaroon Payabarn, kamnan of tambon La-ai in the province's Chawang district, said initial surveys by village heads and local hunters found that the crack was widening at a cliff.

"That cliff is about 1,000 metres [high]. If it collapses, huge damage can be expected," he said.

In 1989, Typhoon Gay formed in the Gulf of Thailand and caused significant damage in Chumphon province. In 1997, Typhoon Linda caused flooding and some deaths in Thailand after devastating parts of Vietnam; it was the worst storm to hit that country in a century.

-- The Nation 2010-11-17

....A cliff of 1,000 meters high? Is he sure? Are there cliffs in Surat Thani (gulf area) that are that high ?

Even if he meant 1,000 Ft (some 300 meters) and the cliff collapses it would mean a tsunami hitting the islands, Koh Tao, Samui, Phangan within minutes......

LaoPo

Can't imagine where you get the tsunami theory.

Most all the 300m cliffs are inland not on the sea side.

The sea side ones are not near as tall.

But most have small hamlets near their bases.

Edited November 17, 2010 by animatic

[Bagwan]

I'm holding my own counsel on this matter until I hear what a certain astrology guru in CM - and MIchael Fish - haver to say.  Sharing an opinion with a Thai Government Minister without  convincing evidence from a credible source can only make one a candidate for the Funny Farm. The more cynical amongst us, (born out of long experience), will have only one question to ask. Did the Thai politician's lips move?  If the answer is in the affirmative then one of the following will probably be true:-

1) He lied

2) He doesn't know what he is talking about

3) Both of the above.  

[1weatherman]

I have looked out to the middle of next week at some forecast weather charts and there's nothing of note developing. Maybe weak low in the

South China Sea. Steering winds would take anything that does form into the southern provinces of Thailand but we're talking about something

that hasn't even formed and would be 10 to 14 days out. I can see the point of emphasizing the possible ramifications of heavy rains over the southern

areas as Natural Resources and Environment Minister Suwit Khunkitti said yesterday. But if something does form you would think they would be able

to get 2 or 3 days advance notice to those in the prime areas to be affected. But I may be "assuming" too much in the communications of such things

by the emergency management people of Thailand. Stay tuned for further announcements.

[asiawatcher]

Satellite remote sensing of oceanic currents and surface temperatures, plus information on variations in the global jet streams, velocity, positions and temperatures are making general predictions quite scientifically possible. High speed supercomputers enable this to be modeled globally, the main uncertainty is choosing an appropriate cell size for the model. Meteorological predictions is an art which is rapidly becoming a science.

I agree, and add this to historical patterns as a reference.

For example they know the conditions that spawned Gay and Linda and if they see similar conditions in place, it is not unreasonable to expect 'an increased probability' of a similar occurrence. Of course some other element could change, but better to have warned that a large scale pattern exists that historically has created a devastating storm, and be ridiculed for it, than to say nothing and be reviled for it.

It has been sometime since a large storm hit, and this also raises the odds it will happen. '89 and then '97 an 8 year gap, and to now a 13 year gap. This may also be tied in with the recurrence of El Nino and La Nina and their affects on both ocean and jet stream currents and temperatures.

A classic example is the '38 hurricane in New England,; no one knew it was coming and it caused utter destruction. In hindsight they could recognize the patterns, and since then have given warnings in advance, and this has saved countless lives, including this year. These warnings often start earlier in the season, when greater numbers larger scale storms fit into past patterns.

Are we going to get precision of warning this far in advance? No. But we are being told the likelihood is increased and to keep vigilant. An lets not fall into the villagers ridiculing the boy who cried wolf attitude, because the wolf DID arrive.

Agree Animatic - also add to the fact the Indonesian Archipelago is a desultory brew spewing out climate changing material and will continue to do so until a big bang and a lot of things result. Volcanoes create huge electrical and storm pressures within their spill and they act as catalysts for other climatic conditions. We are not clear of wet season as yet and moisture and electricity work hand in hand. I think the prediction could be well founded. As an aside I wrote a book in 2001 about a Tsunami hitting Thailand - on no theory but it came to pass. Interesting

[Skywalker69]

So am i reading it right or is there not any basis whatsoever, to this Fella's " prediction " ??

If not, how on Earth is this/he making the National Press Association ??

That was exactly my thoughts as well! Maybe he can see into the future and can predict storms weeks before they've even been formed. Mind you it's somehwat vague as he says it could be sometime later this year!

I think he went to a fortune teller.

[Soutpeel]

I have looked out to the middle of next week at some forecast weather charts and there's nothing of note developing. Maybe weak low in the

South China Sea. Steering winds would take anything that does form into the southern provinces of Thailand but we're talking about something

that hasn't even formed and would be 10 to 14 days out. I can see the point of emphasizing the possible ramifications of heavy rains over the southern

Why 10 -14 days out, at this time of year a typhoon can form up in the mouth of the gulf of Thailand and come barreling up the gulf in 12-18 hours....go and research the sinking of a vessel which I think was called the "Seacrest" killing 18 people, the system formed very quickly and moved very quickly and the guys on the vessel never had a chance.

Granted the data collected and models developed for the gulf are a lot better these days, but never say never

If something forms to the east of the Phillipines, then yes 10-14 days is realisitic.