Thai Economy Back In Recession

[craigt3365]

Before this discussion degenerates into a slanging match about retirees livings on pensions and visitor Joe coming on a holiday. Let me ask the following.

America, in an attempt to re-start growth launches Quantatative Easing - by releasing Billions of US$ into the Banking Sector. The plan being that these Banks will lend money to small business and this will generate jobs. BUT what happens the BanKs start lending this money to folk who can afford to borrow (the Rich already) . And they move the money to areas like Thai land where interest rates are higher or stock values are growing because there is still real economic growth - in order to make a profit (interest they receive - interest they pay on dirty cheap US$). So maybe we should be complaining about the Banks - for the leakage of cheap money from the US into developing economies - Of course the Thai Government has to protect this economy from negative effects. This country doesn't need speculative investment - folk buying condos - not to live in them but to sell at a profit as prices rise because price inflation caused by their own speculative investments. Think about it - this is just another problem caused by the Big Banks - whose belef in money for nothing is what got us into the mess in the first place.

I've read reports that say this is the US's attempt to devalue their currency just like the Chinese have. Cheaper $$$ means cheaper exports and more expensive imports. For sure "hot" money is flowing into Thailand and other Asian countries. The big concern is when it tightens up, and those funds are removed, these countries will get hurt. A horrible game these guys play at the expense of the general public.

Actually, I was quite surprised to hear at an AustCham function in Pattaya a couple of weeks ago, that there is a number of new and increased business investments coming into Thailand in the near future. The unstable government and protest situation doesn't seem to be affecting all business investment.

Yes, and so is the strong Baht not a nail in the coffin of Thailands economy. And also will the tourism industry not much suffer from the exchange rate. If there is a downturn in (western) tourist numbers it has probably also other economical reason in the home countries of these tourist that make them maybe stay home and not come.

The domestic market in Thailand is strong, Thais are consumers too, investors will find labour at good rates, the export business is nowhere near a collapse.

The strong baht and the government instability is killing tourism. I just rented a car from a guy here who says January is looking really bad...and everything has been bad since the riots. He's hoping things improve in the next few years...but not this year. Plus, Europe and the US are still in the toilet economically. But business' plan 3-5 years out, so they are really looking to the future and not just this or next year.

I saw a bunch of new housing developments between Pattaya and Bangkok on a drive the other day. I'm guessing it has to do with all the new factory jobs in that area? They are all oriented towards the Thai market...no English signage on most of the ads...

[Jimi007]

Thailand is my host country. i like to live in Thailand and enjoy the multitude of advantages the country has to offer. but that does not change the fact that Thailand is in each and every respect a third world country and will remain a third world country for many years to come.

:jap:

I disagree, I think Thailand is a developing country, especially if you compare it to Cambodia, Burma or Laos, those are third world countries.

[Thai at Heart]

Ford's sales in Thailand began in 1913[1] with the Model T, but it was only in 1961 that Ford began construction there. Anglo-Thai Motors Company, Ford’s distributor, announced in 1960 that it would build a factory in the country, with Thai Motor Company the result. This was the first time automobiles had been built in Thailand.

I stand corrected about who was the first. However, much of the recent expansion was driven by the entry of Japanese firms and suppliers for parts.

http://www.hemaraj.com/industrial_eastern_seaboard_industrial_estate.asp

BOI Zone: III

Recognized as "Detroit of the East", The Eastern Seaboard Industrial Estate (ESIE) in Rayong Province is the auto cluster under the BOI Zone III incentives. The industrial estate is strategically located in proximity to Laem Chabang Deep Sea Port (Container, Roll On-Roll Off) and Sriracha Deep Sea Port (Container and Bulk). The industrial estate covers a vast area of 8,621 rai (3,448 acres).

ESIE is home to over 109 automotive supply-line companies. This includes 9 of the world's top 10 automotive suppliers and over 25 Toyota group companies. General Motors manufactures Chevrolet sedans and one-ton pickups as well as Isuzu one-ton pickup export volumes. Ford and Mazda under Auto Alliance (Thailand) produce one-ton pickups for both local and export markets. This industrial estate is a manufacturing base for export to more than 206 countries. Since created in 1995, ESIE's development has been a resounding success with USD 5 billion investment. At present, there are 25,000 employees working with over 218 international companies.

Supported by a hard-work ethic, steady investment and generous government incentives, Thailand’s automotive industry is poised for accelerated growth. Currently employing more than 300,000 people and generating 12% of the national GDP, the auto industry is respected as one of the biggest manufacturing sectors in the country.

http://www.business-in-asia.com/automotive/thailand_automotive.html

Pretty big business really.

Edited November 23, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[selftaopath]

Yes, i do think that Thailand don't need foreigners who hope for an economic recession in Thailand just for the sake of the exchange rate of their tourist dollars so they can get everything much cheaper than back home.

You're right! All foreign tourists should stop coming here! And they should stop buying any exported goods from Thailand. Also, all foreigners should pull out all of their investments and companies that they can't even own in Thailand. That would be good news!

That would be very interesting. And it might change the typical Thai view of foreigners.

I worked legally for a/b 5 years and paid more taxes, and jumped through more costly hoops than most Thai could imagine. It took me some time to realize the govt. states I can not be "self employed." ????? So just another way of extracting tax money from foreigners. I guess somebody "gotta" do it b/c most Thai's "ain't."

[peecee]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

Loans at low rates, big face that lasts till repo man arrives!

[craigt3365]

If Thailand is in a recession, why do I see numerous red plated vehicles on the roads everyday? Does not compute. This "recession" has yet to hit the SET, they had a hiccup or 3 last week but recovered.

Time will tell, I guess.

Loans at low rates, big face that lasts till repo man arrives!

Economy is booming and locals are making big bucks....I don't see a recession here at all. If so, I'm sure a lot of our home countries would gladly trade their current situation for this one!

[evanson]

For those posters addressing the tourist industry specifically, I believe it to be a very narrow minded point of view that there are potential tourists (to practically anywhere) with one eye on a glossy holiday brochure and the other on the latest Forex exchange rate.

These tourists/holiday makers' primary concern is that which appeals to them for their annual holiday, whether it be families looking for a two three week beach holiday, or an independent traveller/tourist with more time on their hands looking for some place they might enjoy most, Whether it be sex tourism or whatever. Thailand still is a very nice place to visit.

I think that most of the posts on this forum re this particular subject, reveal a very real anxiety about how long a long term resident can actually afford to subsist here. For many subsistence has smartly followed only a year or so ago's 'comfortable' (insofar as not having to being able to survive the taxes, fuel bills etc which beset most living on a limited income garnered from, again, anywhere else and in particular, European countries, who have at least a safety net, ie.welfare). And Thailand is in no way cheap any more.

And the poster before last had it right when said credit is the driving force of Thailand's economy. What else do they have to match competitively, that of their neighbouring countries and at their very uncompetitive exchange rates? And we now know how that ended in the West.

Edited November 23, 2010 by evanson

[SkyHigh]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Edited November 23, 2010 by SkyHigh

[MaiChai]

Would appear the the the writters for AFP don't know the difference between slowing growth and a negative GDP.

WSJ ran a story yesterday that told the real the story. Headline was "Asian Economies Slow" with a lead in of "The economies of Thailand and Malaysia fell short of expectations during the third quarter as exports cooled, but full-year outlooks for both nations remain strong, with Thai authorities even upgrading their forecast." Certainly not the picture depicted by AFP.

TH

The real story here is that Thailand is a cheap manufacturing based for mainly Japanese companies. While its good for Thailand, ultimately most of the profits go back to the innovative/intellectual property owning companies back in their home lands. A British story here is Triumph motorbikes (or bras?). Also alot of brands license and manufacture here; Heineken, Birdy from Japan, etc.

I think the first world countries are not dead yet. We still have alot of intellectual property and constantly invent and license new technologies and processes. Look at ARM (low power microprocessors in about 98% of mobile phones), Apple Inc, Google, Cisco, etc. Money is no longer made from manufacturing; you can also license technology and get royalties this way (ARM gets 10 to 25 cents for each ARM processor shipped and there is about 20 billion of them out there and each smartphone has about 5 ARM processors). Its not over yet!

Thailand remains cheap outside cities and tourist areas.

Currently alot of tourists from Europe and America don't have the money for long haul holidays this year and are either forgoing a holiday or holidaying much closer to home. Also long haul flights are pretty expensive and it eats up alot of your holiday money. Philipines and Indonesia are also much cheaper and less developed places to visit (certainly the beaches are more plentiful and nicer in Philippines than Thailand and the alcohol is less taxed).

Edited November 23, 2010 by MaiChai

[kuffki]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

[kuffki]

Would appear the the the writters for AFP don't know the difference between slowing growth and a negative GDP.

WSJ ran a story yesterday that told the real the story. Headline was "Asian Economies Slow" with a lead in of "The economies of Thailand and Malaysia fell short of expectations during the third quarter as exports cooled, but full-year outlooks for both nations remain strong, with Thai authorities even upgrading their forecast." Certainly not the picture depicted by AFP.

TH

The real story here is that Thailand is a cheap manufacturing based for mainly Japanese companies. While its good for Thailand, ultimately most of the profits go back to the innovative/intellectual property owning companies back in their home lands. A British story here is Triumph motorbikes (or bras?). Also alot of brands license and manufacture here; Heineken, Birdy from Japan, etc.

I think the first world countries are not dead yet. We still have alot of intellectual property and constantly invent and license new technologies and processes. Look at ARM (low power microprocessors in about 98% of mobile phones), Apple Inc, Google, Cisco, etc. Money is no longer made from manufacturing; you can also license technology and get royalties this way (ARM gets 10 to 25 cents for each ARM processor shipped and there is about 20 billion of them out there and each smartphone has about 5 ARM processors). Its not over yet!

One must keep in mind that the only reason why company's move or establish plants is because of cheaper costs, to maximise the profit.

If or when the costs become higher, and the cost of moving elsewhere becomes more attractive option, this is what company's do-they pack up and move.

There is a reason why almost all manufacturing has been moved in China and other parts of Asia.

And that is the biggest problem, if thb keeps getting stronger or stay strong and the cost of production keeps going up, company's will start to look for alternatives and possibly move.

Many people have forgotten that last year all the big boys like LG, Nikon etc have laid off thousands of workers due to down turn in the rest of the world. What is to stop them from laying off more or moving to a neighboring country because the costs are much higher-less profits.

[rgs2001uk]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Quote "This strong Thai baht is unprecedented".

Dont know when you first came to Thailand or what currency you use, however pre 1997 I remember the $ was always around 25 baht, today lets call it 30, so still an increase of about 20%, if you go back further the $ was about 20 baht.

If you are a Brit, I will use 40 baht as an average pre 1997, today what lets say 48 so up about 20%, I have seen the £ lower than 40, 36 and 38 baht spring to mind, if I go back far enough the £ has been even lower.

Of course for the millionaires arriving after 1997 this may come a shock, others carried out due diligence and others prepared for it.

I dont hear the "its only mickey mouse money" comments too much these days, oh for the heady days of 45 baht to the $ or 75 to the £, kiss those days goodbye, we all knew what we were getting into didnt we?

[SkyHigh]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

No actually,

The only problem is the whining from those who cannot afford to say in so called third-world world country like Thailand.

lol.

[kuffki]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

No actually,

The only problem is the whining from those who cannot afford to say in so called third-world world country like Thailand.

lol.

YEAH, because the big spenders presumably like yourself move to Thailand, i guess $1000 does not buy much back home, but in Thailand makes you a rich man.

[SergeiY]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

yawn.

cheap charlies wanna see it cheaper and pray for an economical downturn.

Thailand isn't doomed by the strong baht. The exchange rates aren't that worse. Thailand is still pretty affordable for many expats. Its all good.

[Thai at Heart]

If the numbers of "true" tourists i.e. holiday makers who get off a plane to go to the beach or the mountains, as opposed to businessmen flicking in for meetings, is 10 or 9 or 8 mn, there is no way to realistically expect that number to be growing when the US and Europe is facing its largest economic crisis since the Wall Street Crash. A large amount of potential tourists in Europe are not going to spend 100 to 200k for a two week break in Thailand when they might be out of a job next week. Just flying to Thailand from Europe or the US is a significant cost.

Good thing tourists from those places, Europe and North America, only make up about a third of the total these days.

We have debated this over and over 1000 times. A Malaysian can drive across the border once a week and be logged as 52 Malaysians entering the country. The reality is that the TAT cannot make a genuine estimate of establishing "genuine" tourists i.e holidaymakers or someone going to the market in Nongkhai from Vientianne. Add in a few thousand people making visa trips in and out of the country for the day, and the figure of 14mn odd tourists serves no other benefit than winning a pissing contest against the other countries in the region.

The irony is that, the holiday resort towns know exactly where their visitors come from, and a reduction of visitors from established markets with historically higher spending is a significant problem.

http://www.tatnews.org/tat_release/detail.asp?id=4983

Bangkok, July 22, 2010 — In spite of the sharp declines in arrivals during the political crisis months of May and June 2010, international visitor arrivals in the first four months of this year were still high enough to allow the country to enjoy a 13.70% increase in total arrivals in the first half.

Figures tabulated by the Ministry of Tourism and Sports in January-June 2010, showed total arrivals by nationality of 7,515,025 up from 6,609,313 or up 13.70% over the same period of 2009.

This is because arrivals in the first half of 2009 had been hit by the impact of the global financial and economic crisis prevailing at the time, making this year’s rate of increase relatively high over a low base figure. It also reflects the fact that while arrivals to Bangkok were significantly affected, arrivals to Phuket remained relatively buoyant.

As the arrivals in June and July 2010 have picked up significantly, thanks to the launch of recovery programmes and a broad range of promotional packages, the Tourism Authority of Thailand officials are optimistic that it will still be possible to meet the year’s total arrivals target of 14.5 million arrivals.

On each of the markets, the following performance analysis, based on the figures tabulated so far:

EAST ASIA: East Asian visitor arrivals to Thailand comprise the biggest market share of all visitors. Of the 7.5 million arrivals in January-June 2010, a total of 3.67 million were from the East Asia region. Malaysia topped the list with 930,660 arrivals, followed by Japan 475,386, China 471,462, and Korea 382,394.

EUROPE: The January-June period saw a good growth rate of 15.86% to 2.27 million. The United Kingdom is the largest source market out of Europe, with arrivals of 412,035, up 2.28%. Germany is Thailand’s second highest source market from Europe with a total of 320,368 arrivals, up 15.89% over the January-June 2009.

Visitors from Russia to Thailand have been growing steadily over the past few years. In the early days, Russian visitors began flocking on charters to Pattaya to escape the harsh winters. Today, they have become mainstream travellers. In January – June 2010, Russian visitors to Thailand totalled 305,415, up 102.28% over the same period of 2009.

THE AMERICAS: Arrivals in January-June 2010 saw an increase of 3.64% to 431,381. The main market, the US, increased by 1.95% to 310,454. Arrivals from both Brazil and Canada showed positive growth of 17.29% and 3.88%. Thailand’s image of good value for money remains a powerful magnet that continues to attract tourists.

SOUTH ASIA: Arrivals in January-June 2010 grew by a strong 15.99% to 446,935 with all markets doing well. India has become a primary market with arrivals up by 18.39% to 344,063, making it the region’s fastest growing market. Thailand is enjoying huge popularity among Indian niche markets; such as, weddings and honeymooners.

OCEANIA: Arrivals in January-June 2010 grew by 11.87% to 367,540 visitors. Australian visitors were up 13.00% to 326,084 and New Zealand +3.00% to 40,255. This is largely due to the influx of low-cost airlines like Jetstar into Phuket.

MIDDLE EAST: Arrivals in January-June 2010 grew by a strong 22.20% to 261,657 with all markets showing a positive growth. One of the most promising is Iran with arrival only at Suvarnnabhumi airport up by 51.86%.

AFRICA: Arrivals in January-June 2010 were up by 21.71% to 56,908. South Africa is a major market and has showed significant growth of 39.09% to 23,434. It is expected to perform strongly in the year ahead in the wake of relaunch of Thai Airways’ flights to Johannesburg.

But like a genie in the bottle, where did all the tourists go? Apparently it should be a bumper year?????????

Edited November 23, 2010 by Thai at Heart

[SkyHigh]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

No actually,

The only problem is the whining from those who cannot afford to say in so called third-world world country like Thailand.

lol.

YEAH, because the big spenders presumably like yourself move to Thailand, i guess $1000 does not buy much back home, but in Thailand makes you a rich man.

Looks like strong baht is hitting someone's nerve. LOL.

[Beetlejuice]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Quote "This strong Thai baht is unprecedented".

Dont know when you first came to Thailand or what currency you use, however pre 1997 I remember the $ was always around 25 baht, today lets call it 30, so still an increase of about 20%, if you go back further the $ was about 20 baht.

If you are a Brit, I will use 40 baht as an average pre 1997, today what lets say 48 so up about 20%, I have seen the £ lower than 40, 36 and 38 baht spring to mind, if I go back far enough the £ has been even lower.

Of course for the millionaires arriving after 1997 this may come a shock, others carried out due diligence and others prepared for it.

I dont hear the "its only mickey mouse money" comments too much these days, oh for the heady days of 45 baht to the $ or 75 to the £, kiss those days goodbye, we all knew what we were getting into didnt we?

Interesting, but what you are forgetting or have no knowledge of, is that pre 1997 the cost of living in Thailand was about 20% to what it is now and bank interest rates were almost 1300% higher then today`s present rates.

I knew many ex-pats during those times that lived solely on savings interest. You could purchase a 2 bedroom house with land in a good area of Chiang Mai for 300000 baht and a family could live very comfortably on 10000 a month.

What is happening today and how it was 12/13 years ago is a completely different state of affairs. There is no comparison.

[kuffki]

Thailand isn't cheap ?

Great then. A good indicator as developing country.

Cheap tourism brings problems. Moving upscale, if ever possible, is better for Thailand.

For those looking for extreme cheap deal, you may consider Cambodia, Vietnam etc. Those who constantly bashing Thailand, now you have your chance leaving this 'third world' country LOL.

Retired expats living in Thailand like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Tourists like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats with income from other countries like to see"cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand for International firms on contract and are paid in $, like to see "cheaper" baht and "cheaper" prices! Not sure why anyone would see a problem with that

Expats working in Thailand on a crappy salary like to see "strong" baht so it would appear they are earning "bigger bucks" when converted to $.

So i guess the non bashers would be the real cheap charlie's

yawn.

cheap charlies wanna see it cheaper and pray for an economical downturn.

Thailand isn't doomed by the strong baht. The exchange rates aren't that worse. Thailand is still pretty affordable for many expats. Its all good.

yeah, how dare people wanting to get more for their money. Thats just beyond comprehension.

Perhaps next time you go to buy something, why do not you pay double or better yet pay Moscow prices-this would really help Thailand to prosper.

I can see you know Western economics really well,i wonder why you think China keeps its currency under valued.

I also do not recall having the debate if it was affordable or not. The debate is that strong baht makes it hard for many and if it continues to grow stronger, it will really hurt some people

PS. I guess the remarks by a number of people of your rudeness, did very little to improve it. Excellent quality of "new" expats

[kuffki]

Looks like strong baht is hitting someone's nerve. LOL.

Actually its the useless , rather less intelligent comments that hit my nerves.

I have a feeling you do not even live in Thailand but more like a 2 week millioner.

PS. I get paid in AU$, so it does not affect it much at all

Edited November 23, 2010 by kuffki

[kuffki]

Is this good news for the ex-pats.

Will the baht grow weaker? And fall more inline with other currencies?

We wait and see what happens in the near future.

Not really good news.

If the Baht stays longer so strong and we would see a stronger grow rate in the economy, sooner or later Thailand would become to expensive for the cheap charlies - that would be good news.

Would you include retirees trying to get by on their pensions in your cheap charlies catagory? Most cheap charlies I know are good decent people.

This strong Thai baht is unprecedented; if you don't know what this means, it means its never happened before. Most foreigners who live here base their lifestyle on a certain rate of exchange, and this unexpected rate of exchange is making it hard for many of them.

The other thing to consider is how are Thais being affected. I would say the alarming increase in the cost of living here is affecting alot of Thais. A Birdy was 10 baht for a long time; within a short period of time it has risen to 13 baht. The government rolls out all these statistics but never really talks about the increasing cost of living or how well the general population is getting by.

Quote "This strong Thai baht is unprecedented".

Dont know when you first came to Thailand or what currency you use, however pre 1997 I remember the $ was always around 25 baht, today lets call it 30, so still an increase of about 20%, if you go back further the $ was about 20 baht.

If you are a Brit, I will use 40 baht as an average pre 1997, today what lets say 48 so up about 20%, I have seen the £ lower than 40, 36 and 38 baht spring to mind, if I go back far enough the £ has been even lower.

Of course for the millionaires arriving after 1997 this may come a shock, others carried out due diligence and others prepared for it.

I dont hear the "its only mickey mouse money" comments too much these days, oh for the heady days of 45 baht to the $ or 75 to the £, kiss those days goodbye, we all knew what we were getting into didnt we?

Very valid point, but now think back how much did the things cost back then? For example condo's? businesses? gas?food and everything else.

Back then, one could buy a 2 bedroom condo for 3-4million in BKK in prime location, now that same condo is 8+ million

So its all relative.

Also for many who made a move after 97, they never experienced the rates prior and have had very good run for over 10 years and good things are hard to let go off.

[SkyHigh]

Looks like strong baht is hitting someone's nerve. LOL.

Actually its the useless , rather less intelligent comments that hit my nerves.

I have a feeling you do not even live in Thailand but more like a 2 week millioner.

PS. I get paid in AU$, so it does not affect it much at all

It started with you said stong baht was the problem. But I said no it was not. That's all !

If strong baht hits tourism hard like many expect, then economy goes down, baht weaken. It's plain simple.

The thing is. Thailand has been drastically change year after year. And people ( some people ) do expect Thailand to be a cheap place forever, taking advantage from poor labor.

Get real ! It wont ! Either you earn more money, spend more, or just leave.

Like it or not. Deal with it.

Frankly. Thailand remains firmly top spot for expats, tourists.

The problem is not Thailand has strong baht.

It is the people - from whining village - who cannot afford it and refuse to acknowledge reality.

[kuffki]

Looks like strong baht is hitting someone's nerve. LOL.

Actually its the useless , rather less intelligent comments that hit my nerves.

I have a feeling you do not even live in Thailand but more like a 2 week millioner.

PS. I get paid in AU$, so it does not affect it much at all

It started with you said stong baht was the problem. But I said no it was not. That's all !

If strong baht hits tourism hard like many expect, then economy goes down, baht weaken. It's plain simple.

The thing is. Thailand has been drastically change year after year. And people ( some people ) do expect Thailand to be a cheap place forever, taking advantage from poor labor.

Get real ! It wont ! Either you earn more money, spend more, or just leave.

Like it or not. Deal with it.

Frankly. Thailand remains firmly top spot for expats, tourists.

The problem is not Thailand has strong baht.

It is the people - from whining village - who cannot afford it and refuse to acknowledge reality.

Where did i say strong baht was the problem? for me personally?

Strong baht is a problem for Thailand as a nation, which will still show more and more

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

There reason why Thailand is what it is, is because of the cheap labor and conditions, i also do not see locals being paid any more then they did before.

Nor do i see any social improvements.All i see is higher, unjustified prices, business going broke and closing down and more properties on the market for sale.

[SkyHigh]

Strong baht is a problem for Thailand as a nation, which will still show more and more

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

There reason why Thailand is what it is, is because of the cheap labor and conditions, i also do not see locals being paid any more then they did before.

Nor do i see any social improvements.All i see is higher, unjustified prices, business going broke and closing down and more properties on the market for sale.

higher price -- why not. The US QE signature is exporting inflation.

business going broke - seeing Gov revenue records. No it's not. Business is doing fine.

properties for sale - real estate booming is good, if treated properly.

Thailand has very high national reserve. It's holding too much actually.

Its national debt is only 46-48% GDP.

All indicators say the same. Thai economy is strong. This mean the Gov has plently of resource to support business and social sector.

It also means Thailand has its golden shot to restructure its business model at fundamental level.

The strong baht event this time around is not going to kill economy. Instead, it'll force Thailand to push itself out of poor & cheap labor exporter status, which eventually will do better for Thailand.

Luckily for Thailand, it has enough resouce to deal with it.

Cheap tourism is pretty much the same as cheap labor based economy. Soon it'll get a 'unwanted' label !

[SergeiY]

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

yep, that is it all about. for some grumpy old man on a low pension isn't it cheap enough. And to think of a headline like "Thai Economy Back In Recession" as good news is some selfish egoistic mindset of an (economic) loser.

[kuffki]

Strong baht is a problem for Thailand as a nation, which will still show more and more

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

There reason why Thailand is what it is, is because of the cheap labor and conditions, i also do not see locals being paid any more then they did before.

Nor do i see any social improvements.All i see is higher, unjustified prices, business going broke and closing down and more properties on the market for sale.

higher price -- why not. The US QE signature is exporting inflation.

business going broke - seeing Gov revenue records. No it's not. Business is doing fine.

properties for sale - real estate booming is good, if treated properly.

Thailand has very high national reserve. It's holding too much actually.

Its national debt is only 46-48% GDP.

All indicators say the same. Thai economy is strong. This mean the Gov has plently of resource to support business and social sector.

It also means Thailand has its golden shot to restructure its business model at fundamental level.

The strong baht event this time around is not going to kill economy. Instead, it'll force Thailand to push itself out of poor & cheap labor exporter status, which eventually will do better for Thailand.

Luckily for Thailand, it has enough resouce to deal with it.

Cheap tourism is pretty much the same as cheap labor based economy. Soon it'll get a 'unwanted' label !

Ok, from the example below, can you please point out what is doing well.

1. Linmark, worlds second largest buyer/supplier(can look them up) shipped over $80 million per year from Thailand alone and employed over 40 people. It has now reduced it staff to 2 and ships just under $10 million per year.

2. Waitress in the bar, salary is 3000 per month, price for drinks 7 years ago was 120 baht, now 180 baht. How does she benefit?

3. Same for all employees across all industries.

4. Massage shops use to charge 200 for thai massage and now charge 100, today even seen a place with 80 baht, so anything to get a customer.

5.Tourist numbers went from 16 million to i think its 11 million or so. Yes yes, tourist is only 6% of GDP according to gov figures, but just pick up a calculator and do the maths. Average tourist would spend minimum $2000

6.Huge number of condo development abandoned across BKK, Just along Asok and Nana there are 4 that i know of.

and the list goes on.

So how exactly this is prosperous for majority of Thai people or Thailand as a nation. Yeah the rich got richer and everyone else????

[kuffki]

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

yep, that is it all about. for some grumpy old man on a low pension isn't it cheap enough. And to think of a headline like "Thai Economy Back In Recession" as good news is some selfish egoistic mindset of an (economic) loser.

You seriously need to develop manners. That grumpy old man worked all his life to enjoy the rest of it. You are in no position to criticize or pass judgements.

[Thai at Heart]

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

yep, that is it all about. for some grumpy old man on a low pension isn't it cheap enough. And to think of a headline like "Thai Economy Back In Recession" as good news is some selfish egoistic mindset of an (economic) loser.

Having seen the mess that 97 caused, any one sitting in the village on a pension shouldn't wish for that kind of thing. They would end up supporting about 10 more extended family as they all had to go back up country. That whole thing set the country back about 25 years economically.

I wouldn't wish a 97 style crisis on any country. Seems like it is coming Ireland's way right now.

[SergeiY]

Strong baht is a problem for people living on a pension and them wanting to see it weaker is far from being a crime.

yep, that is it all about. for some grumpy old man on a low pension isn't it cheap enough. And to think of a headline like "Thai Economy Back In Recession" as good news is some selfish egoistic mindset of an (economic) loser.

You seriously need to develop manners. That grumpy old man worked all his life to enjoy the rest of it. You are in no position to criticize or pass judgements.

I will still stick with my opinion - Thailand don't need people that call an economic crisis or a recession - Good News.

[MaiChai]

I don't really understand your general arguments about foreigners being bad for Thailand, when you are clearly one? The whole Thailand is for Thais argument is totally xenophobic and racist when almost every first nation country is full of foreigners, who incidentally have equal rights to locals.

My opinion is that it has taken time for Thailand to experience the global recession that has hit developed economies. It is just starting for Thailand and in my opinion its not the end of it. Simple fundamentals: if Thailands exports are expensive AND their customers have cut back consumption then it will affect the local economy. I am not saying I want bad news for Thailand, I just think you have to be honest that there will be a downturn here, rather than thinking the boom (or bubble?) will continue. Guess its like all bubbles; people don't realise (or don't want to see) there is a bubble and will be forced back to reality when the bubble bursts.