Thailand To Proceed With High Speed Rail Project

Humphrey Bear · March 22, 2011

If it's 'real' high speed rail (250-350 kph) it will be based on the Chinese CRH system which is standard gauge 1,435 mm (4 ft 8 ¹⁄₂ in).

At these speeds it is essential that nothing obstructs the track so much of the route will have to be elevated or in tunnel, imagine hitting a chang at 350kph!

Mrs Chang would have enough sense to get out of the way. It's Khun Somchai walking along behind who is the problem.

And a two-hour journey - BKK to Vientiane. Better than the overnight sleepers at present. They put me down for three days after each journey.

whybother · March 22, 2011

50 billion dollars for around 650km of line, three or four stations, rolling stock.

Dual track line at a million a kilometre is 1.25 billion (approx)

Four stations at 20 million each (generous)

Eight trains (maximum) at 800 million each (Siemens prices)

Less than eight billion.

Who gets the rest?

Loan will be paid back by the fare structure, I assume. Over (say) 25 years.

Eight to ten journeys each way, each day, with 300 pax average.

5-6,000 pax per day (if they're lucky)

25 x 365 x 5,000 = 45,625,000 pax trips (one-way)

To pay back 50 billion (no interest calculated) each pax must pay more than US $ 1,000 per one-way journey.

And do you think that every day for the next 25 years more than 5,000 people will want to make that journey? Every day?

Typical Thailand - nobody has checked the figures. All pie-in-the-sky idiot thinking.

Probably 10 times that per km http://www.railway-technical.com/finance.shtml#How-Much

Crossy · March 22, 2011

Spent too long editing my previous post, so here's the edit for those who missed it.

The cost of HSR in the West is between 30 and 60 million USD per km, so the estimated cost of 50 billion USD (about 77 million a km) is a bit loaded but not far from the truth taking account of inflation.

ginjag · March 22, 2011

If it's 'real' high speed rail (250-350 kph) it will be based on the Chinese CRH system which is standard gauge 1,435 mm (4 ft 8 ¹⁄₂ in).

At these speeds it is essential that nothing obstructs the track so much of the route will have to be elevated or in tunnel, imagine hitting a chang at 350kph!

I heard they were using "HornbyOO"

jb1

You snob I only had Triang....... This line runs parrallel with the Highway 2 all the way. imagine the hundreds of link roads crossing this line from the EAST side to join the A2. They will have to install gates/barriers, auto'''' wake the man up in his little box and give him a pension. What will the lady do with her washing, she will have to be an olympic sprinter to get the clothes in before the flying scotsman arrives,

DP25 · March 22, 2011

150 billion Baht is not US$50 billion, it is US$5 billion

whybother · March 22, 2011

150 billion Baht is not US$50 billion, it is US$5 billion

A previous thread () had it costed at 180 billion baht.

Previously, the scheme involved on constructing a high-speed train with dual rail track at construction costs estimated at Bt180 billion. But the costs could be lower between 20-30 per cent after the system is switched to a standard gate high-speed train system.

jimbeam1 · March 22, 2011

If it's 'real' high speed rail (250-350 kph) it will be based on the Chinese CRH system which is standard gauge 1,435 mm (4 ft 8 ¹⁄₂ in).

At these speeds it is essential that nothing obstructs the track so much of the route will have to be elevated or in tunnel, imagine hitting a chang at 350kph!

I heard they were using "HornbyOO"

jb1

You snob I only had Triang....... This line runs parrallel with the Highway 2 all the way. imagine the hundreds of link roads crossing this line from the EAST side to join the A2. They will have to install gates/barriers, auto'''' wake the man up in his little box and give him a pension. What will the lady do with her washing, she will have to be an olympic sprinter to get the clothes in before the flying scotsman arrives,

Plus you know the motor bike taxi's are not going to wait to cross the track. They'll have to fit those Bull bars on like they had in the old US wild west, to scoop them out of the way.

jb1

ginjag · March 22, 2011

If it's 'real' high speed rail (250-350 kph) it will be based on the Chinese CRH system which is standard gauge 1,435 mm (4 ft 8 ¹⁄₂ in).

At these speeds it is essential that nothing obstructs the track so much of the route will have to be elevated or in tunnel, imagine hitting a chang at 350kph!

I heard they were using "HornbyOO"

jb1

You snob I only had Triang....... This line runs parrallel with the Highway 2 all the way. imagine the hundreds of link roads crossing this line from the EAST side to join the A2. They will have to install gates/barriers, auto'''' wake the man up in his little box and give him a pension. What will the lady do with her washing, she will have to be an olympic sprinter to get the clothes in before the flying scotsman arrives,

Plus you know the motor bike taxi's are not going to wait to cross the track. They'll have to fit those Bull bars on like they had in the old US wild west, to scoop them out of the way.

jb1

The type they used for the Apache and bison. :lol: --every crossing will be like a game of skittles good stuff JB1

bumpkin · March 22, 2011

We view this HS rail link with interest. If we are cynical, we might think this has more to do with the expansion of easy transport links for China. Who is paying for this line ? Some countries play the long game ! N.B. Keep watching over the next decade

Lakegeneve · March 22, 2011

Instead of being worried about high speed, let's worry aboutfixing the traffic for getting some speed in the streets. It seem it gets worseand worse, and the lack of discipline on the road also makes it worse anddangerous

I agree with you. As for sure they will spend millions on the planing of this project. Announce the starting and finishing date's then put it on hold. In the mean time, there will have been some nice little earners?

jb1

Sorry but you are both stuck in a last century mentality. The best way to improve traffic flow in a city like Bangkok and a country like Thailand is to provide cost effective, quick mass transit. We can't keep expanding roads forever, esp. as there is no space.

Traffic in BKK would be significantly improved once there is a critical mass of mass transit lines covering the city. Similarly, for highways around the country, once there are high speed rail lines it will take some of the freight and passenger traffic off the roads. The Thai Chamber of Commerce has been crying out for years for improvements to rail (as recently as 2 days ago). The railways have been negelected for decades whilst new roads have been built. Now it is time for rail transport in Thailand to catch up.

And this line will go ahead as the Chinese are funding it and will make sure it is done in 5 years. As with any project in Thailand (or any SE Asian country) - be it schools, highways or an airport - there will unfortuneately be a % of funds corruptly siphoned off for a select few.

However, in relation to driving standards no one will disagree that they are woeful. Which is why you don't want most drivers driving at a higher speed!

The rpoblems are a lack of training & public education, poor driver tests, and a lax rule of law (enforcement). As with many safety and standard issues in this country that requires a greater institutional & cultural challenge.

Sorry but well and truly in this century thank you. We all know that Thailand does in fact already have mass transport lines covering the city. As far as I can see the high speed rail link is only from Bangkok

to Nong Khai, not taking in the whole of City. So I fail to see how this will help to Improve Bangkok traffic.

Ok the Chinese are funding this project. But we all know that they are going to want their money back. It is only a loan, which is going to cost big time. In the mean time we can all wait and see also what happens to the super sky way?

Just my thoughts.

jb1

Firstly, Thailand is not a city.

But assuming you are referring to BKK, 3 metros lines totalling around 40kms hardly comes close to anywhere near "covering the city". BY 2029 the current plans are for 14 metro lines covering around 400km in distance. Now that is more akin to "covering the city" as you stated.

Secondly, you are stuck in last century mentality as you stated in your post that you agreed with the proposition by givenail that the focus should be on "fixing the traffic for getting some speed in the streets". Whether or not you agree in whole or part with that sentiment, the point is that either in a BKK context with metro lines or a countrywide context with high speed intercity lines, there has been too much focus on roads to the detriment of good transport planning. And it does help BKK as you obviously don't know that hundreds of buses a day enter into and out of BKK to traverse this route. Good intergrated, mass transport with a HS line and a propoer metro network reduces the demand of car based traffic off the roads.

High speed rail provides a framework for improving current transport patterns and avoiding inevitable road based future congestion problems. It is not THE answer but it makes logical sense on any economic, health and envronmental front. Which is exactly why industry, community and regional groups are all demanding it.

Thirdly, yes it will be expensive but it will be cheaper than the cost of building National Hwy 1. The Chinese will fund it with a 3% annual loan. (The line through Loas is going to cost US$7 billion - almost twice as much due to the number of tunnels and bridges required). Any new infastructure costs money but it becomes an asset for the future. Nobody complains about the 10s of billions which go into building new highways so why is rail so unique????? There are also considerable economic efficiency gains, health and environment economic benefits which are usually uncosted. The govt estimates an estimated 19.1% economic investment rate of return.

There are going to problems, some cost overuns and teething problems when it opens but show me a major project anywhere in the world that does not have some?

4thly, what has the ill-concieved Super skyway got to do with this? You could mention any one of numerous stupid ideas promoted by central govts or provincial govts which have nothing to do with improving rail lines.

planr · March 22, 2011

I don't think it has been mentioned yet, but for those who have asked about other routes, there are three in the planning stages in addition to Bangkok - Nong Khai mentioned above.

The first route is to the Malaysian border, which the Chinese also want to fund. The reason that the Chinese want to fund this route (and Nong Khai) is for trade and tourism purpose as the link is expected to eventually link Kunming in Yunnan province with Singapore in the south (though I'm sure most people would just fly for such a distance). Obviously the Chinese feel their are major benefits to investment that are both obvious (economic benefits from trade and tourism of course) and less obvious... such as the fact that there is a high likelyhood that the trains and/or signaling used for these two HSR routes may need to be purchased from Chinese suppliers per contractual agreements.

The other two routes will start in BKK and end in Chiang Mai and Rayong/Chonburi respectively and likely be fully funded by the Thai government (in the sense that government funds plus loans from the Japanese/Chinese etc are considered full funding).

More info is available here straight from the horses mouth - http://www.sepo.go.th/highspeedrail/en/download.html -- though bear in mind these are just rough numbers put together by OTP, as no in depth feasibility studies have been conducted/published yet.

Lakegeneve · March 22, 2011

50 billion dollars for around 650km of line, three or four stations, rolling stock.

Dual track line at a million a kilometre is 1.25 billion (approx)

Four stations at 20 million each (generous)

Eight trains (maximum) at 800 million each (Siemens prices)

Less than eight billion.

Who gets the rest?

Loan will be paid back by the fare structure, I assume. Over (say) 25 years.

Eight to ten journeys each way, each day, with 300 pax average.

5-6,000 pax per day (if they're lucky)

25 x 365 x 5,000 = 45,625,000 pax trips (one-way)

To pay back 50 billion (no interest calculated) each pax must pay more than US $ 1,000 per one-way journey.

And do you think that every day for the next 25 years more than 5,000 people will want to make that journey? Every day?

Typical Thailand - nobody has checked the figures. All pie-in-the-sky idiot thinking.

Don't forget that the main reason for building this line for the Chinese is freight and the line will extend to Malayasia. That will be the main earner for the line. None of which you have taken into account. (freight will not operate at the same high speeds as passenger rail given weight differences of rolling stock but it will be much quicker than the current average of around 40km!)

I am not going to defend the feasibility studies and costings that have been done. Undoubtedly there are flaws. As with most similar excercises, pax numbers and freight volumes are inflated and some costs underestimated. However, the NESB, MOCommerce and MOT have taken the time to do some substantial work than you did in this basic excercise. I suggest you may wish to do some research as to what has been done on costings and ridership, critique it and then highlight the flaws rather than engaging in a fanciful excercise a you have done here. Some of what you assert may have merit but it is hard to take it seriously when you didn't include the major earner for the line and your figures are unsupported.

No doubt some decision makers are rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of 'sticking their snouts in the trough' as they usually do for ANY project. But the Chinese want this link badly, they are putting down US$7 billion plus for the link through Laos and of course they need the further extension through Thailand. According to the MOT, estimated ticket costs at this stage (of course this will increase) are:

Northeast Line:

Bangkok (Bangsue Central) - Nakhon Ratchasima: Travel Time 1 Hour 17 Minutes Ticket: 410 Baht

- Khon Kaen: Travel Time 2 Hours 13 Minutes Ticket : 709 Baht

- Nong Khai: Travel Time 3 Hours 4 Minutes Ticket : 984 Baht

Using Khon Kean as an example, you can currently purchase a VIP bus ticket for around 350 - 400 baht (5 hrs) and an air ticket for 2000-2500 (TG) if you are lucky. Take into account inflation for 2016 price comparisions and even my very, very basic excercise suggests that a 2.5 hr journey to KK will compete favourably with both bus and air.

Phuket Stan · March 22, 2011

I did the trip Beijing to Shanghai on the new train....absolutely fantastic...all the knockers of this venture should step out side their kennels and take the trip...they may learn something ...thats if they open their eyes...not just one of them

ginjag · March 22, 2011

50 billion dollars for around 650km of line, three or four stations, rolling stock.

Dual track line at a million a kilometre is 1.25 billion (approx)

Four stations at 20 million each (generous)

Eight trains (maximum) at 800 million each (Siemens prices)

Less than eight billion.

Who gets the rest?

Loan will be paid back by the fare structure, I assume. Over (say) 25 years.

Eight to ten journeys each way, each day, with 300 pax average.

5-6,000 pax per day (if they're lucky)

25 x 365 x 5,000 = 45,625,000 pax trips (one-way)

To pay back 50 billion (no interest calculated) each pax must pay more than US $ 1,000 per one-way journey.

And do you think that every day for the next 25 years more than 5,000 people will want to make that journey? Every day?

Typical Thailand - nobody has checked the figures. All pie-in-the-sky idiot thinking.

Don't forget that the main reason for building this line for the Chinese is freight and the line will extend to Malayasia. That will be the main earner for the line. None of which you have taken into account. (freight will not operate at the same high speeds as passenger rail given weight differences of rolling stock but it will be much quicker than the current average of around 40km!)

I am not going to defend the feasibility studies and costings that have been done. Undoubtedly there are flaws. As with most similar excercises, pax numbers and freight volumes are inflated and some costs underestimated. However, the NESB, MOCommerce and MOT have taken the time to do some substantial work than you did in this basic excercise. I suggest you may wish to do some research as to what has been done on costings and ridership, critique it and then highlight the flaws rather than engaging in a fanciful excercise a you have done here. Some of what you assert may have merit but it is hard to take it seriously when you didn't include the major earner for the line and your figures are unsupported.

No doubt some decision makers are rubbing their hands with glee at the thought of 'sticking their snouts in the trough' as they usually do for ANY project. But the Chinese want this link badly, they are putting down US$7 billion plus for the link through Laos and of course they need the further extension through Thailand. According to the MOT, estimated ticket costs at this stage (of course this will increase) are:

Northeast Line:

Bangkok (Bangsue Central) - Nakhon Ratchasima: Travel Time 1 Hour 17 Minutes Ticket: 410 Baht

- Khon Kaen: Travel Time 2 Hours 13 Minutes Ticket : 709 Baht

- Nong Khai: Travel Time 3 Hours 4 Minutes Ticket : 984 Baht

Using Khon Kean as an example, you can currently purchase a VIP bus ticket for around 350 - 400 baht (5 hrs) and an air ticket for 2000-2500 (TG) if you are lucky. Take into account inflation for 2016 price comparisions and even my very, very basic excercise suggests that a 2.5 hr journey to KK will compete favourably with both bus and air.

Someone forgot about Udon Thani ?? about now near the second biggest city in Thailand, Dont forget this line is taking in about the 4 biggest cities in Thailand. Udon Thani to Morchit. bus vip -personal video, near full recline, vibrate seat, 430 bht double deck lovely. About 7 hours 984 bht train 10 hours vip bus 430 bht

Just to add-it's ironic, the big station near Bkk rail would have been DON MUENG airport. the line will be going through there. so more air traffic from our old D.M. ???

Edited March 22, 2011 by ginjag

jimbeam1 · March 22, 2011

jb1

Firstly, Thailand is not a city.

But assuming you are referring to BKK, 3 metros lines totalling around 40kms hardly comes close to anywhere near "covering the city". BY 2029 the current plans are for 14 metro lines covering around 400km in distance. Now that is more akin to "covering the city" as you stated.

Secondly, you are stuck in last century mentality as you stated in your post that you agreed with the proposition by givenail that the focus should be on "fixing the traffic for getting some speed in the streets". Whether or not you agree in whole or part with that sentiment, the point is that either in a BKK context with metro lines or a countrywide context with high speed intercity lines, there has been too much focus on roads to the detriment of good transport planning. And it does help BKK as you obviously don't know that hundreds of buses a day enter into and out of BKK to traverse this route. Good intergrated, mass transport with a HS line and a propoer metro network reduces the demand of car based traffic off the roads.

High speed rail provides a framework for improving current transport patterns and avoiding inevitable road based future congestion problems. It is not THE answer but it makes logical sense on any economic, health and envronmental front. Which is exactly why industry, community and regional groups are all demanding it.

Thirdly, yes it will be expensive but it will be cheaper than the cost of building National Hwy 1. The Chinese will fund it with a 3% annual loan. (The line through Loas is going to cost US$7 billion - almost twice as much due to the number of tunnels and bridges required). Any new infastructure costs money but it becomes an asset for the future. Nobody complains about the 10s of billions which go into building new highways so why is rail so unique????? There are also considerable economic efficiency gains, health and environment economic benefits which are usually uncosted. The govt estimates an estimated 19.1% economic investment rate of return.

There are going to problems, some cost overuns and teething problems when it opens but show me a major project anywhere in the world that does not have some?

4thly, what has the ill-concieved Super skyway got to do with this? You could mention any one of numerous stupid ideas promoted by central govts or provincial govts which have nothing to do with improving rail lines.

Oops I made a mistake, you are of course correct I did indeed mean Bangkok. Perhaps you would like to explain to me what you mean by. Agreed with the proposition by GivenaiL do you mean givenall.

Also when you mention that the current plans as in what they have planned by 2029. These are not included in this project with the Chinese. Indeed a totally separate project. If you would like to read what others have been posting here. I think you will find that yes we will have a stop in Bangkok before it goes off to Malaysia and beyond.

You ask me what has the Ill concieved skyway to do with this. Personally I don't think it was or is such a bad Idea.

So all I can really say is watch this space.

jb1

Edited March 22, 2011 by jimbeam1

dunkin2012 · March 22, 2011

:jap:

hope I can see one............... Gees...

Willeyeam · March 22, 2011

It took the Germans and the British to build their only rail link from Bangkok to Chiang Mai, way back in the 19th Century, and there seems little improvement in the past 90 or so years after it was completed in 1919.

Their only other decent rail link was again built by Farang, Brits and Aussies - the Burma railroad, under the supervision of the Japs.....does Thailand actually BUILD ANYTHING ON THEIR OWN? They seem very cunning in their planning and execution, as CUNNING AS A SLUG!

What on earth can we expect to come of this 150 Billion baht project? Other than 149 Billion Baht going to line someones pockets and maybe a few concrete pillars extending a few kilometres out of the station!

And it still takes an EON to get from A-B, wouldn't have been a bit smarter to modernise their existing routes?

Edited March 22, 2011 by Willeyeam

turgid · March 22, 2011

I did the trip Beijing to Shanghai on the new train....absolutely fantastic...all the knockers of this venture should step out side their kennels and take the trip...they may learn something ...thats if they open their eyes...not just one of them

Here here. A Singapore to Shanghai line would be an amazing journey indeed.

colinscarr · March 22, 2011

As mentioned, the main reason the Chinese are building these lines is to link factories in China with ports in Thailand and Singapore.

Freight trains can probably run on 1435mm gauge track at around 150kph/94mph carrying 40 foot intermodal containers. While the same track can be built to handle 300kph/186mph or 350kph/215mph passenger trains, there is then a problem of 'pathing' to allow the HS passenger traffic to pass the slower freight. Not impossible, though it might involve 'looping' freight trains at strategic points to keep the line clear for passengers. But that implies prioritising passengers over the freight that is the economic driver for the lines.

As for construction, I'd suggest the line will be elevated or in cuttings so that Somchai has no level crossings that might tempt him to play chicken.

Regarding the Mekong crossing at Nong Khai, I guess they'll build a new railway bridge with twin standard gauge (1435mm) lines

If this were a purely local project, I'd anticipate something of a rerun of the Swampy experience, late, massive cost overruns, poor quality construction etc. However, given its importance to the Chinese economy, I expect their engineers and managers will keep a tight grip on the project and I expect to open close to the beginning of 2016

aussiebebe · March 22, 2011

Think of it as one leg of a Shanghai to Singapore line.

Just a thought, are they still going to use the narrow gauge track and build another the same along side ?? 2WAY--or a european wide gauge double track. still keeping the existing track for inter town service. having then 3 lines ???

I doubt that they will worry about the old stuff. Furthermore, I would bet that the whole route is done in 10 years or less, if the Chinese have their way.

That's right, the Chinese referred to the Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor in last year's ASEAN summit, linking down through Vietnam. Perhaps this railway is already part of a larger plan to culminate in the belated creation of a canal through southern Thailand, which is a very old idea and is the only way China will secure it's future energy and material needs.

Willeyeam · March 22, 2011

Think of it as one leg of a Shanghai to Singapore line.

Just a thought, are they still going to use the narrow gauge track and build another the same along side ?? 2WAY--or a european wide gauge double track. still keeping the existing track for inter town service. having then 3 lines ???

I doubt that they will worry about the old stuff. Furthermore, I would bet that the whole route is done in 10 years or less, if the Chinese have their way.

That's right, the Chinese referred to the Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor in last year's ASEAN summit, linking down through Vietnam. Perhaps this railway is already part of a larger plan to culminate in the belated creation of a canal through southern Thailand, which is a very old idea and is the only way China will secure it's future energy and material needs.

Indeed, this seems to be on the cards, and Thailand will become another annexe of the P.R.C

Sabre · March 22, 2011

Think of it as one leg of a Shanghai to Singapore line.

Just a thought, are they still going to use the narrow gauge track and build another the same along side ?? 2WAY--or a european wide gauge double track. still keeping the existing track for inter town service. having then 3 lines ???

I doubt that they will worry about the old stuff. Furthermore, I would bet that the whole route is done in 10 years or less, if the Chinese have their way.

That's right, the Chinese referred to the Nanning-Singapore Economic Corridor in last year's ASEAN summit, linking down through Vietnam. Perhaps this railway is already part of a larger plan to culminate in the belated creation of a canal through southern Thailand, which is a very old idea and is the only way China will secure it's future energy and material needs.

Rumor has it that Singapore has already made sure such a canal will never happen ...

Edited March 22, 2011 by Sabre

KeyserSoze01 · March 22, 2011

Instead of being worried about high speed, let's worry aboutfixing the traffic for getting some speed in the streets. It seem it gets worseand worse, and the lack of discipline on the road also makes it worse anddangerous

Ha, you no understand Thai culture. There is no money to skim from improving the traffic laws and obedience... Imagine how much can be skimmed from a 150 billion baht hi-speed rail project that will go about as well as the airport link. We all know how well that went.

Edited March 22, 2011 by KeyserSoze01

jimbeam1 · March 22, 2011