Geological Faults In The West And North Could Rock Bangkok, Quake Expert Warns

[Lite Beer]

Geological faults in the West and North could rock Bangkok, quake expert warns

Tanatpong Kongsai

The Nation on Sunday

BANGKOK:-- An earthquake-engineering expert yesterday warned that people in Bangkok should keep an eye on a geological fault in the country's west that could affect the capital.

Prof Panitan Lukkunaprasit, from Chulalongkorn University (CU)'s Centre of Excellence in Earthquake Engineering and Vibration, said the fault is near the western province of Kanchanaburi and links to Myanmar's Sagaing Fault. He said officials should be aware of the faults as they could cause big earthquakes.

Moreover, if quakes occurred in the North, he said they could also shake Bangkok. Other faults in the South, including the Ranong and Khlong Marui faults were least likely to affect the capital compared to those in the West and North.

"Now people are frightened and worried about earthquakes, especially in Phuket, after the media have had a lot of news reports on tremors following an earthquake and many aftershocks that occurred this month. Sometimes, the information they have reported was academically inexact or incorrect, or rumours, which affected the country's economy negatively," Panitan said.

So, his centre, in collaboration with CU's Research Unit for Earthquake and Tectonics Geology of Mainland Southeast Asia, will host a roundtable discussion on the topic "Earthquake; Rumours or Truths" to educate the media on correct information so they can disseminate what is correct to the public. Earthquake academics would propose appropriate moves to deal with a quake disaster.

The discussion will be held tomorrow from 9am to noon at CU's Faculty of Science.

Despite rumours that Phuket would submerge yesterday as a result of a recent earthquake, all the flights to the island province were fully booked.

Authorities in the province also hosted a "Believe in Phuket" event to deny rumours that the island was sinking. Phuket Governor Tri Akaradecha affirmed public safety.

At the event, the governor and executives from other local administrative organisations planted a national flag and other flags of their organisations on soil where a 4.3 magnitude quake occurred in Thalang district on April 16.

Phuket Airport director Pratuang Sornkham insisted that the rumour had not affected passengers' confidence. He expected the number of passengers travelling to the province would increase, as there were more passengers in the first quarter compared to the same period last year.

Mineral Resources Department chief Nitat Poovatanakul insisted that Phuket would not sink. And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

Meanwhile, Premier Yingluck Shinawatra said in her weekly TV programme that the government had plans to prevent any further flood disasters.

Yingluck said Thailand had requested China's assistance on water management. She said China would send water management experts to give advice and work with the Commission of Water and Flood Management before the rainy season.

She said while Thailand was setting up a single command system to deal with floods, China had already implemented such a system. It had combined water and flood management systems under the Ministry of Water Resources. The country had laws that support the implementation of a combined system. It had a "war room" that could connect with every province.

"We're considering following this measure," she noted.

Meanwhile, the Pollution Control Department yesterday revoked the announcement of a dangerous zone after a fire that has been raging in Phitsanulok's Nakhon Thai district for days was now under control. Department officials said it had not found any poisonous gases in the area.

Officers from the Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Centre in the province pumped water from the Kwai Noi River - about 500 metres from the spot - and sprayed water to subdue the blaze.

-- The Nation 2012-04-29

[jalansanitwong]

If you believe the media the entire population of the world is frightened and terrified about everything. Droughts,famine,floods, tsunami, earthquakes,STD,AIDS,pestulance, financial ruin and violent ladyboys.

A serious earthquake in Bangkok ?.......<deleted>.

[Soupdragon]

An earthquake-engineering expert yesterday warned that people in Bangkok should keep an eye on a geological fault in the country's west that could affect the capital.

How do you keep an eye on a geological fault ?

[petedk]

Talk about selective reporting:

I've just read an article in today's Bangkok Post where a Prof. Thanawat Jarupongsakul from Chulalongkorn University's Geology Department says that Thailand is "deemed safe from a serious land earthquake".

I think I'll stick to reading Bangkok Post and sleep well at nights.

[Xonax]

A magnitude 20 earthquake - Come on!!! The Richter Scale is only from 1-10. A magnitude 20 earthquake would destroy the whole world!

[LennyW]

A magnitude 20 earthquake - Come on!!! The Richter Scale is only from 1-10. A magnitude 20 earthquake would destroy the whole world!

And part of the surrounding universe!!!!

[zackxx]

Bangkok sits on a thick layer of waterlogged alluvial mud that will be prone to liquefaction during an earthquake. As such I suspect that it won't be so much an earthquake that will cause castastrophic damage to the city but the resultant loss of stiffness and strength in the soil supporting many structures.

Edited April 29, 2012 by zackxx

[thurien]

How do you keep an eye on a geological fault ?

what they mean is "love it or hate it" or another one (which is also extremely out of context, the way the Thai like it):

"the fault is a major part of our culture, difficult to understand for farang"

[folium]

A magnitude 20 earthquake - Come on!!! The Richter Scale is only from 1-10. A magnitude 20 earthquake would destroy the whole world!

Richter scale has been superseded by the MMS (Moment Magnitude Scale) for all but the smallest earthquakes since 1977.

It is an open-ended scale, so a magnitude 20 quake is possible but that would be the approximate equivalent of 3.8billion March 2011 earthquakes off Sendai, Japan in terms of wave amplitude and would release about 1.2 to the power of 16 the amount of energy.

Basically it would be game over to put it mildly!!!

Edited April 29, 2012 by folium

[whybother]

A magnitude 20 earthquake - Come on!!! The Richter Scale is only from 1-10. A magnitude 20 earthquake would destroy the whole world!

The "Moment Magnitude Scale", which is apparently the scale used now, is open ended.

And he did say:

And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

[folium]

Bangkok sits on a thick layer of waterlogged alluvial mud that will be prone to liquefaction during an earthquake. As such I suspect that it won't be so much an earthquake that will cause castastrophic damage to the city but the resultant loss of stiffness and strength in the soil supporting many structures.

A more realistic threat is a combination of subsidence, rising sea levels and flooding. While not utterly implausible, sensationalism about earthquakes should not distract from the real hazards that Bangkok faces.

[kennalder]

Mineral Resources Department chief Nitat Poovatanakul insisted that Phuket would not sink. And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

Once again demonstrating just how mathematically challenged this population is. The largest quake ever recorded was the Chile quake of 1960 at 9.5. If you look at the energy released by an earthquake in terms of the number of nuclear bombs then according to the USSG website.

6=.79 nuclear bombs

7=25 nuclear bombs

8=790 nuclear bombs

9=25,000 nuclear bombs

each integer on the scale means about 32 times as much energy released.

I don't know how to do the calculations but I'm guessing that a quake of 20 under Phuket would not sink the island, but would probably put it into an orbit somewhere between Mars and Uranus.

[animatic]

A magnitude 20 earthquake - Come on!!! The Richter Scale is only from 1-10. A magnitude 20 earthquake would destroy the whole world!

They are not using the Richter scale these days, but many reporters just tag it on anyway.

The Scales are open ended, not closed. Just because there hasn't been a recorded 10,

doesn't mean there can't be.

But 20 does seem like hyperbole, if not technically 100% incorrect.

If the aim was to discourage rampant rumor mongering and fear of the big one

causing Phuket to SINK under the sea, then some hyperbole might be useful versus paranoia.

Edited April 29, 2012 by animatic

[folium]

Mineral Resources Department chief Nitat Poovatanakul insisted that Phuket would not sink. And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

Once again demonstrating just how mathematically challenged this population is. The largest quake ever recorded was the Chile quake of 1960 at 9.5. If you look at the energy released by an earthquake in terms of the number of nuclear bombs then according to the USSG website.

6=.79 nuclear bombs

7=25 nuclear bombs

8=790 nuclear bombs

9=25,000 nuclear bombs

each integer on the scale means about 32 times as much energy released.

I don't know how to do the calculations but I'm guessing that a quake of 20 under Phuket would not sink the island, but would probably put it into an orbit somewhere between Mars and Uranus.

My maths is probably not perfect (only just starting my 2nd coffee of the day), but the back of hand calculation is that for wave amplitude (ie what is recorded on a seismograph) the difference between a 7.0 Haiti 2010 and a 9.0 Sendai 2011 quake is 10x10/1.3, and the energy released (which is more indicative of the likely extent of damage) would be 32x32/1.4.

Taking those 2 examples also underlines an important point that size isn't everything as approx.10x as many people died in Haiti compared to Japan. But that's another geography lesson!

[animatic]

Mineral Resources Department chief Nitat Poovatanakul insisted that Phuket would not sink. And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

Once again demonstrating just how mathematically challenged this population is. The largest quake ever recorded was the Chile quake of 1960 at 9.5. If you look at the energy released by an earthquake in terms of the number of nuclear bombs then according to the USSG website.

6=.79 nuclear bombs

7=25 nuclear bombs

8=790 nuclear bombs

9=25,000 nuclear bombs

each integer on the scale means about 32 times as much energy released.

I don't know how to do the calculations but I'm guessing that a quake of 20 under Phuket would not sink the island, but would probably put it into an orbit somewhere between Mars and Uranus.

Well that depends if the fault is pushing together or pulling appart.

Together, right to the moon Alice,

apart, swallowed up and never seen again.

[folium]

Well that depends if the fault is pushing together or pulling appart.

Together, right to the moon Alice,

apart, swallowed up and never seen again.

Don't get me started on strike-slip, oblique-slip and dip-slip faults, and not forgetting the granddaddy of them all the mega-thrust, but it's all a bit too early for that.

[Pib]

But the important question now is when will a specific lottery be started to pick the earthquake date? It also needs to include payout provisions for getting close to the date...like plus or minus 1 day. I'm sure most of my in-laws would buy a ticket(s).

[mayday49]

I love you Guys......!

[Guest]

Mineral Resources Department chief Nitat Poovatanakul insisted that Phuket would not sink. And Tri said it would take a massive quake, of 20 magnitude for this to happen, which was almost wholly unlikely.

Once again demonstrating just how mathematically challenged this population is. The largest quake ever recorded was the Chile quake of 1960 at 9.5. If you look at the energy released by an earthquake in terms of the number of nuclear bombs then according to the USSG website.

6=.79 nuclear bombs

7=25 nuclear bombs

8=790 nuclear bombs

9=25,000 nuclear bombs

each integer on the scale means about 32 times as much energy released.

I don't know how to do the calculations but I'm guessing that a quake of 20 under Phuket would not sink the island, but would probably put it into an orbit somewhere between Mars and Uranus.

There are nuclear bomb and big nuclear bombs.

For example the biggest bomb ever tested, the Tsar bomba was 100 Megaton of TNT. The power was reduced to 50Mton, which is equivalent of 8.35 quake on Richter scale.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richter_magnitude_scale#Examples

Interesting thing is that the latest nuclear test at North Korea caused 4.2 quake on Richter scale and therefore was equivalent of 3 kiloton explosion. To visualize it, that means that there would be an hole with 12*12*12m filled with TNT.

North Korea does not have so much of TNT so Nitrogen based fertilizes with some diesel can be used instead of TNT. Now, did they have problems feeding their population?

[trainman34014]

As Bangkok is already sinking and the 'experts' say it will be gone in about 70 years, is there any point in worrying about an Earthquake? Surely the Government should be thinking about building a new Capital City somewhere on high ground. However; we all know that won't happen until their own homes or places of work are sinking beneath the mud !

[vijer]

"Chulalongkorn University (CU)'s Centre of Excellence in Earthquake Engineering and Vibration"

Ahh what's in a name, "Center of Excellence"! 5555 How about "Center of Amateurism in everything except corruption" Not directed at the university mind you, as far as I know they are excellent.

On a serious note, if a magnitude 2 or greater earthquake hits near central Bangkok there WILL be severe damage. ALL of the tiny red bricks used to build the walls in multistory buildings will fall out in seconds and crash onto the heads of all the street vendors and patrons. I guess then all the Thai's will just respond "som nam na" and go about their lives.

[folium]

But the important question now is when will a specific lottery be started to pick the earthquake date? It also needs to include payout provisions for getting close to the date...like plus or minus 1 day. I'm sure most of my in-laws would buy a ticket(s).

Here's a game I've played before (a little nerdy admittedly):

The Bruce Almighty Challenge (can you play god and can you shout out "I've Got the Power"?)

Before 12 noon Friday 4 May you need to post your prediction on this thread.

You need to specify a date and time (local to the earthquake) and the acceptable spread is 12 hours either side (thus a 24 hour window)

You need to specify a town, city or even village for less populated parts of the world, and this needs to be within a 200km radius of the epicentre. Therefore, just saying California or Japan will not count.

The earthquake has to be magnitude 5.0 or greater.

If your prediction comes true we will all sit back in awe and amazement, and some may even worship at your feet! Shades of "He is the Messiah" from Python's Holy grail.

All locations and magnitudes will be based on the USGS website data.

A summary of worldwide quake activity can be found at:

http://earthquake.us...es/recenteqsww/

This is not meant to be an exercise in poor taste merely an opportunity to win public acclaim, and recognition of your powers of prediction(I will even produce a smart certificate for the winnner) .

PS the closest anyone has ever got is right size and within the radius but 2 hours out. Consistent, accurate quake prediction remains one of the great challenges yet to be conquered.

[rakman]

Bangkok sits on a thick layer of waterlogged alluvial mud that will be prone to liquefaction during an earthquake. As such I suspect that it won't be so much an earthquake that will cause castastrophic damage to the city but the resultant loss of stiffness and strength in the soil supporting many structures.

+1

[oggie911]

good night bkk

[oggie911]

hello planet x

[apetley]

"Chulalongkorn University (CU)'s Centre of Excellence in Earthquake Engineering and Vibration"

Ahh what's in a name, "Center of Excellence"! 5555 How about "Center of Amateurism in everything except corruption" Not directed at the university mind you, as far as I know they are excellent.

On a serious note, if a magnitude 2 or greater earthquake hits near central Bangkok there WILL be severe damage. ALL of the tiny red bricks used to build the walls in multistory buildings will fall out in seconds and crash onto the heads of all the street vendors and patrons. I guess then all the Thai's will just respond "som nam na" and go about their lives.

Suggest you do a liitle reading on earthquake magnitudes. A '2' will not even be felt let alone do any damage.

Every year there are over one million earthquakes between 2 & 2.9

It takes a quake of at least 5 to do serious damage even to poorly constructed buildings.

Posted with Thaivisa App http://apps.thaivisa.com

[remobb]

Well that depends if the fault is pushing together or pulling appart.

Don't get me started on strike-slip, oblique-slip and dip-slip faults, and not forgetting the granddaddy of them all the mega-thrust, but it's all a bit too early for that.

Are you talking about the KarmaSutra here?

[lavender19]

I'm glad I don't live in Bangkok.All those tall buildings built on swamp land

[folium]

Well that depends if the fault is pushing together or pulling appart.

Don't get me started on strike-slip, oblique-slip and dip-slip faults, and not forgetting the granddaddy of them all the mega-thrust, but it's all a bit too early for that.

Are you talking about the KarmaSutra here?

You probably never knew that tectonics could be such fun...

[dude007]

I'm glad I don't live in Bangkok.All those tall buildings built on swamp land

But founded on sound conrete piles in the stiff clay... Only the oldest one would be in danger at a 8.0 Richter scale earthquake.