Thai talk: All sides will lose if chaos of post-Songkran scenarios breaks out

[webfact]

THAI TALK
All sides will lose if chaos of post-Songkran scenarios breaks out
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

Is the much-predicted "political apocalypse" inevitable?

BANGKOK: -- The popular scenario being bandied about goes something along these lines: The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and Constitutional Court (CC) will hand down verdicts soon and, one way or the other, Premier Yingluck Shinawatra runs the risk of losing her seat. The government won't accept the verdict. Red shirts will launch a large-scale protest. The anti-government protesters will confront them. Clashes will ensue. Civil war will break out.

The NACC has been investigating corruption charges related to the highly controversial rice-pledging scheme, which somehow have implicated the premier. She hasn't denied that there might have been something fishy in the process but she argues that, as head of government, she was only responsible for policy-level decisions. The blame for any corrupt practice should be pinned on the operational level.

The graft-busters don't seem to buy that argument. The government and even Yingluck herself have come out publicly to suggest that the anti-corruption agency might be using "double standards" in judging her.

If the NACC decides to indict her in the next few weeks, Yingluck would have to be suspended from her post. The anti-government protesters say that would result in a political vacuum and that a non-partisan premier would have to be installed under Article 7 of the charter. Yingluck has countered that even if she is forced to step down, the caretaker government could name a deputy premier to take her place. There is, she insists, no room for an "outsider" to step in, as has been claimed all along by Suthep Thaugsuban, leader of the People's Democratic Reform Council (PDRC).

The Constitutional Court is also due to hand down a verdict on the premier's decision to transfer Thawil Pliensri from his post as secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC). If the CC rules that she did in fact abuse her power in this case - as has been previously ruled by the Administration Court - Yingluck, in accordance with one of the charter clauses, may have to stand down. A similar face-off over whether a political vacuum will ensue has also been raised.

The doomsayers say one of these two cases will result in the caretaker government being thrown into a shaky position. The government, the ruling Pheu Thai Party, some of the red-shirt leaders and, in the latest development, the Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO), have taken the unusual step of issuing "warnings" to the NACC and CC, telling them in no uncertain terms "not to exceed authority" in their deliberations.

The thinly-veiled threat from Yingluck and her aides is clear: If either of the rulings goes against Yingluck, trouble will break out. In other words, they will accept the verdicts only if they favour the caretaker government.

That, of course, is unprecedented and would set a dangerous trend. The Constitution clearly guarantees freedom and independence to the judicial bodies and independent agencies, and their rulings are supposed to be free of political influence. Both the NACC and the CC have responded with stern statements, promising counter-actions if the caretaker government does not refrain from employing such threats to achieve its political goals.

The worst-case scenario dominating the political scene right now is that Yingluck refuses to accept a negative ruling, the PRDC confronts the red shirts, violence breaks out and chaos reigns.

Does that have to happen? Not really. Former premier Thaksin Shinawatra has been trying to squeeze a "deal" from various parties. He knows that should chaos ensue, he might even lose, as it might force the military to intervene.

A "compromise" solution he has put forward in behind-the-scenes exchanges inevitably involves clearing him of all legal convictions and charges as well as returning his seized assets. That isn't acceptable to the PDRC, whose leader Suthep has insisted that a non-partisan interim government should run the country ahead of fresh elections.

Thaksin's insistence on a solution "within the democratic framework" can mean only one thing: He wants the new election to be held as soon as possible.

The anti-Thaksin groups' declared condition that everything must follow the "rule of law" means that Thaksin can't get an all-embracing amnesty.

If, despite all the threats of a massive red-shirt rally, a negative verdict is handed down against Yingluck, Thaksin is likely to negotiate for an interim premier of his choice. That, too, is a non-starter.

But both Thaksin and Suthep realise that resorting to a violent confrontation won't achieve the victory each seeks. Instead, together with the Democrats and the other pressure groups in Thai society, they will have to iron out a compromise solution, no matter how difficult that might prove to be.


-- The Nation 2014-04-24

[NongKhaiKid]

YL can't hide behind a defence of only being involved in the policy making and that anything wrong is the fault of those implementing the policy as because of overall head of the scheme she can't avoid her responsibility and authority, well, maybe in LoS she can.

With all the veiled and not so veiled threats and intimidation being thrown around I wonder if NACC and the Constitutional Court will conduct business according to the rule of law or will they be influenced in any way by the rule of thug ?

It will be a sad day for Thailand if the bully boys win because, apart from anything else, there will be no stopping them.

[noitom]

A lot of ifs ands and buts here in the possible outcomes of the Thai political situation. Odds are on the "popular scenario being bandied about" at 5:9.

[edgarfriendly]

Dont worry, these cats aint got the balls to fight fairly.

the only way a civil war will kick off is if both sides are 100% certain that their team has at least a 15 - 1 advantage over the other team.

Actually on second thoughts, the way these guys 'use' math we might be doomed...

'Could' be nice & quiet once the rabble have devoured each other though - silver linings guys!

[chainarong]

Lets today not take sides but mention the facts , this little howdy doodie would not be happening if the current government had kept its nose clean and played with a straight bat, therefore the law of the land has been asked to adjudicate on several matters and despite contempt arguments to discredit from various quarters, verdicts are to be handed down, the process of reforms that takes another hammering , will there be meaning-full dialog, what is the time limit, importantly , what are the penalty's for obstruction , non compliance of reform rules , refusal to negotiate, reform before or after elections , Thailand leaders have a duty to the people, not to themselves , the self serving attitude needs to change, a new level of standards and thinking, requires vision and articulate persons who can lead not follow into Thailand's future

[jollyman]

Good luck YingLuck, only your way, the election way is RIGHT,, right? Sethup a poor second rate Duce!

[WoopyDoo]

This is Thailand

These are Thai people

You think there can EVER be a compromise????

I don't care how high the stakes are in this game, nobody is ever going to back down.... did everyone forget about Thainess?

Ever had words with your Thai wife/gf?? Notice even when you know she is wrong and she has also realised she is wrong, but there is no way she will ever lose the face to admit it, so will continue to argue black is white until you give up and change the subject.

Well..... ALL THAIS are the same, they would rather fight to the death than admit they were wrong or back down.... no different in Thai politics.

Thailand is going to have to face a civil war, and that is the end of it, but no way will they ever come together.... Millions can die and YL and Thaksin will still say they were right.

[GunterChiangMai]

This is Thailand

These are Thai people

You think there can EVER be a compromise????

I don't care how high the stakes are in this game, nobody is ever going to back down.... did everyone forget about Thainess?

Ever had words with your Thai wife/gf?? Notice even when you know she is wrong and she has also realised she is wrong, but there is no way she will ever lose the face to admit it, so will continue to argue black is white until you give up and change the subject.

Well..... ALL THAIS are the same, they would rather fight to the death than admit they were wrong or back down.... no different in Thai politics.

Thailand is going to have to face a civil war, and that is the end of it, but no way will they ever come together.... Millions can die and YL and Thaksin will still say they were right.

Hehehehe I really think WoopieDums contributions are stupid, all of them but one: he is right about the thai wife, this happens to me every day and I still like it!

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