Phuket Property forecast view for rest of 2014? 2015?

[nontabury]

There are hundreds, if not thousands of properties on the market for sale here. That should say something to you.

Some have been on the market for years - and that is not an exaggeration, years.

Many of these properties will not sell because the listing price is too high, most probably because the owner originally paid too higher price for the property when they bought it.

The land the property is sitting on most likely has a 30 year land lease, so is diminishing year by year, and who know what will happen when year 30 arrives.

They keep building and building and building here, so there will definately be, if not already, an oversupply of property on the market, pushing sales and rents down.

Phuket property boomed in the late 80's to early 90's - a lot of these properties will have their 30 years land leases up soon. It will be interesting to see what happens.

In my opinion, I think you will see downward pressure on the property market here.

If you chose to buy, do so without any expectation there will be any appreciation of the asset, in fact, you should expect depreciation.

You should just look at your purchase as a lifestyle decision, rather than an investment. The trouble with that is, as there is no town planning here, you never really know what will become of the area you chose to live in.

Well surely a new owner will put the land into someone else's name, and then make a new 30yr lease. In other words you simple start again, that's what I did

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

What if you bought 29 years ago, and next year, you are asked to pay again, at a much higher price, and can not afford it - you put the property on the market, therefore, more property on the market for sale, thus further downward pressure on prices.

A lot of these properties will soon be at the end of their 30 year lease and it will be interesting to see what will happen.

Two things to do.

1/ You can always start off with a 30yr x 2 lease thereby giving you 60yrs

I must admit that I don't know if this has stood up in court yet,does anybody know?.

2/ If you only have a 30yr lease, renew the lease say after 10 or 15 yrs

The only problem I can envisage with this options, is that maybe the Thai person whose name the land is in, decides not to play ball, and refuses to transfer the land.

If this is the case, then maybe You have to blame yourself for trusting that person in the first place. What you could do is to offer that Thai person a small financial incentive to co-operate with you, and as we all know, Most Thai's only live and plan for today, they would much sooner take a small amount today than hold out for maybe another 15 or 20yrs.

Another thing you can do, is when you first buy the land and make out a lease, is to also at the same time get the Thai to pre-sign a document agreeing to sell the land to another Thai citizen if requested. Then if they refuse to renew, just enforce the sale to another Thai.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[nedkellylives]

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Russians have plenty of capability to buy holiday homes/second homes as do the Chinese. In fact most markets are all looking at the Chinese as the next source of income/sales. I know of various projects that are almost exclusively only marketing to the Chinese. Royal Carribean are even surprisingly sending their newest flagship cruise liner to run out of china. Honestly I don't mean to be rude but I really don't think you have a grasp of the current market conditions in terms of tourists and/or property sales.

Why is tourism booming here if it has such a poor reputation as you have said? The tourists must be sat there in China according to your thinking saying..."I know a crap place to go on holiday....lets book there!! Woohoo"

The OP asked for property forecasts.

I've given mine, and the reasons why. I'm not saying what I predict will definately happen, that's why it's called a forecast. Only time will tell what will happen with the property market here, and what nationalities are actually going to be driving that market. My forecast actually goes beyond 2015 and is more long term.

All you have done is criticize my forecast.

I'd be happy to hear yours, and your reasons why you forecast as you do.

The reason why tourist numbers are up is because the TAT are marketing cheap package holidays to emerging economies. The tourist numbers maybe up, but I'll bet the baht turn over is down, way down.

Also, many people using Phuket International Airport as an entry point to Thailand, due to cheap flights, but holidaying elsewhere in Thailand.

Then you have "tourists" like myself, getting counted anywhere from 4 to 12 times a year as a "tourist."

TAT is not marketing heap tour packages, they are against them

Chinese tour companies are and the Thai govt want them stopped

Not so many fly in fly out workers living here any more and they do not come from Russia, China or India

The Thai govt is starting to clamp down and make it a lot harder for so called tourists they do not want to stay in Thailand

They want expats who actually retire here and invest money in their retirement here

[NamKangMan]

There are hundreds, if not thousands of properties on the market for sale here. That should say something to you.

Some have been on the market for years - and that is not an exaggeration, years.

Many of these properties will not sell because the listing price is too high, most probably because the owner originally paid too higher price for the property when they bought it.

The land the property is sitting on most likely has a 30 year land lease, so is diminishing year by year, and who know what will happen when year 30 arrives.

They keep building and building and building here, so there will definately be, if not already, an oversupply of property on the market, pushing sales and rents down.

Phuket property boomed in the late 80's to early 90's - a lot of these properties will have their 30 years land leases up soon. It will be interesting to see what happens.

In my opinion, I think you will see downward pressure on the property market here.

If you chose to buy, do so without any expectation there will be any appreciation of the asset, in fact, you should expect depreciation.

You should just look at your purchase as a lifestyle decision, rather than an investment. The trouble with that is, as there is no town planning here, you never really know what will become of the area you chose to live in.

Well surely a new owner will put the land into someone else's name, and then make a new 30yr lease. In other words you simple start again, that's what I did

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

What if you bought 29 years ago, and next year, you are asked to pay again, at a much higher price, and can not afford it - you put the property on the market, therefore, more property on the market for sale, thus further downward pressure on prices.

A lot of these properties will soon be at the end of their 30 year lease and it will be interesting to see what will happen.

Two things to do.

1/ You can always start off with a 30yr x 2 lease thereby giving you 60yrs

I must admit that I don't know if this has stood up in court yet,does anybody know?.

2/ If you only have a 30yr lease, renew the lease say after 10 or 15 yrs

The only problem I can envisage with this options, is that maybe the Thai person whose name the land is in, decides not to play ball, and refuses to transfer the land.

If this is the case, then maybe You have to blame yourself for trusting that person in the first place. What you could do is to offer that Thai person a small financial incentive to co-operate with you, and as we all know, Most Thai's only live and plan for today, they would much sooner take a small amount today than hold out for maybe another 15 or 20yrs.

Another thing you can do, is when you first buy the land and make out a lease, is to also at the same time get the Thai to pre-sign a document agreeing to sell the land to another Thai citizen if requested. Then if they refuse to renew, just enforce the sale to another Thai.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

"You can always start off with a 30yr x 2 lease thereby giving you 60yrs" - no. The longest lease recognised under Thai Law is 30 years.

"If you only have a 30yr lease, renew the lease say after 10 or 15 yrs" - and this will be done for free, will it????

"The only problem I can envisage with this options, is that maybe the Thai person whose name the land is in, decides not to play ball" - yes, that correct. Why would they "play ball." The land reverts back to them. They are not going to allow you to stay for free.

"Another thing you can do, is when you first buy the land and make out a lease, is to also at the same time get the Thai to pre-sign a document agreeing to sell the land to another Thai citizen if requested. Then if they refuse to renew, just enforce the sale to another Thai." - I've never heard of this, and not sure what it would acheive, but the Thai land owner/s just sell it to their, wife, husband, son, daughter etc - same same problem for the bricks and mortar owner.

Edited May 19, 2014 by NamKangMan

[KarenBravo]

TAT is not marketing heap tour packages, they are against them

Chinese tour companies are and the Thai govt want them stopped

Not so many fly in fly out workers living here any more and they do not come from Russia, China or India

The Thai govt is starting to clamp down and make it a lot harder for so called tourists they do not want to stay in Thailand

They want expats who actually retire here and invest money in their retirement here

Not true.

The TAT just want numbers, that is why they have been doing road-shows that promote Thailand and Phuket as a destination in these countries, or, invite travel agency groups from these countries.

TAT are always quoting the number "13 million tourists" come to Phuket, when in actual fact, that is the total number of arrivals and departures.

It was the Chinese government that cracked down on the "zero-baht" tours. Too many Chinese tourists were complaining about being pressured into buying stuff at these ware-houses that they are obligated to go to. These purchases subsidized their tours and earn't the tour companies up to 50% commission.

The Thai government have always said that they want "quality tourists" and have done for at least the last twenty-five years, yet, their actions, through the actions of TAT show that to be false. Quantity is far more important to them than quality.

As far as I know, the Thai government has never explicitly said that they want expats to retire here, though, it can be assumed as there is a specific visa for this.

Edited May 19, 2014 by KarenBravo

[Colonel_Mustard]

No, I'd say if 1% are wealthy, then 1% of that 1% may be interested in buying property.

The Chinese much prefer HK, and Singapore for buying property and are a much better investment opportunity than Phuket.

That may well be the case but there are still many people from HK buying in Phuket at the moment. I know quite a few people in the RE business here and pretty much all of them say that most of their buyers are from HK and to a lesser extent Singapore. Not as many Russians as I would have expected but when they do buy, apparently they mainly go for condos (perhaps as not many seem to have Thai partners).

It's hard to forecast the property market in Thailand at present due to the political issues that are happening and are likely happen in the near future. Barring a major increase civil unrest, I would expect prices to increase very slightly or at least remain stable.

[Peterocket]

Don't mix up the two.

In my opinion, the property market on Phuket will devalue, due to the many reasons I have stated in previous posts, but mainly due to oversupply.

My comment on Russians, Chinese and Indians being the new demographic of tourists to Phuket, and the fact a high percentage of these are the cheaper package holiday tourists, is not a great advertisement for the tourism industry on Phuket.

Where there is a small "cross over" is the ones that holiday here, may love the place and retire here one day, buying property, but the percentage of those who can afford to, when compared to the western market, is much smaller, and the fact the western tourist market is shrinking on Phuket, simply means less people with the money to buy here in the future.

Put very simply, in the past, tourism (people holidaying here) was an indirect advertisement for the Phuket property market and many returned for holidays here, year after year, and then went on to retire here, purchasing property.

With the new demographic of tourists coming to Phuket, being lower end package holiday makers, a high percentage of these tourists will never be able to afford to retire here, and they are Russian, Chinese and Indian.

So, to give a basic example, due to a lot of the negative publicity Phuket receives, a 60 year old western guy holidays on Samui. He loves the place, and holidays there a few times more. He then starts looking at property, as he is retiring soon. He buys and retires on Samui. In the past, he may have come to Phuket, and eventually, the Phuket property market may have seen his money. Phuket's increasing poor reputation has taken one less western buyer out of the property market.

The "poor reputation" I am talking about is not the nationality of the tourists coming here. It's the lack of infastructure, the service, lack of transport, pricing, crime, drugs, scams, traffic, pollution, policing, accidents etc etc.

Now, that westerner guy has been replace by a Russian, Chinese or Indian guy. I am suggesting they do not have the capability, and perhaps the desire, to retire on Phuket, buying property, as those from the west. They come from emerging economies, not western economies. Salaries, work conditions, Governmnet benefits etc are not as developed. So, many of them can't, therefore don't, buy property here.

In my opinion, basically, the way the "influential people" on Phuket are running the place, it will, if it has not already, have a negative impact on the property market here in the future.

It's a complex issue, but I hope that clarifies my thoughts for you.

Russians have plenty of capability to buy holiday homes/second homes as do the Chinese. In fact most markets are all looking at the Chinese as the next source of income/sales. I know of various projects that are almost exclusively only marketing to the Chinese. Royal Carribean are even surprisingly sending their newest flagship cruise liner to run out of china. Honestly I don't mean to be rude but I really don't think you have a grasp of the current market conditions in terms of tourists and/or property sales.

Why is tourism booming here if it has such a poor reputation as you have said? The tourists must be sat there in China according to your thinking saying..."I know a crap place to go on holiday....lets book there!! Woohoo"

The OP asked for property forecasts.

I've given mine, and the reasons why. I'm not saying what I predict will definately happen, that's why it's called a forecast. Only time will tell what will happen with the property market here, and what nationalities are actually going to be driving that market. My forecast actually goes beyond 2015 and is more long term.

All you have done is criticize my forecast.

I'd be happy to hear yours, and your reasons why you forecast as you do.

I believe that the Asian and Eastern European markets will keep the Phuket housing market afloat.

This as well as the increase in Condominiums/Freehold ownership will continue to see large number of sales although possible at the expense of low-mid end leasehold villas.

If 1% of the Chinese tourists that visit are wealthy and 1% of them are interested in buying and 1% of them actually buys that is an entire condominium every month. Only from the Chinese and only if you think 1 in 100 Chinese are wealthy.

[NamKangMan]

I believe that the Asian and Eastern European markets will keep the Phuket housing market afloat.

This as well as the increase in Condominiums/Freehold ownership will continue to see large number of sales although possible at the expense of low-mid end leasehold villas.

If 1% of the Chinese tourists that visit are wealthy and 1% of them are interested in buying and 1% of them actually buys that is an entire condominium every month. Only from the Chinese and only if you think 1 in 100 Chinese are wealthy.

"I believe that the Asian and Eastern European markets will keep the Phuket housing market afloat." - do you think they will be investors or expat retirees?

[NamKangMan]

As a side issue, does anyone know if ASEAN citizens will be able to own land in other ASEAN member countries when ASEAN starts?

[KarenBravo]

I think people are thinking that this ASEAN business is like the Asian version of the EU, it isn't.

There are only seven categories of jobs that other ASEAN members have the right to do in other ASEAN countries.

[NamKangMan]

I think people are thinking that this ASEAN business is like the Asian version of the EU, it isn't.

There are only seven categories of jobs that other ASEAN members have the right to do in other ASEAN countries.

I am aware of the employment situation, and I know ASEAN will not function like the EU.

I was just wondering about property ownership, specifically the land it sits on, and particularly if the property is used, legitimately or otherwise, as a "business" which ASEAN is all about, making business easier across these boarders.

[KarenBravo]

No change in property ownership. If there was, it would be such big news, that we would have heard about it.

[NamKangMan]

No change in property ownership. If there was, it would be such big news, that we would have heard about it.

Ok. So that's not going to create a short term demand in property here.

[nontabury]

So the 30yr lease is the only one recognised under Thai Law, it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not.

Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem.

As I said earlier in the event that the Thai becomes awkward, and knowing how many Thai's don't think too far in the future, then maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem.

Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[NamKangMan]

So the 30yr lease is the only one recognised under Thai Law, it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not.

Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem.

As I said earlier in the event that the Thai becomes awkward, and knowing how many Thai's don't think too far in the future, then maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem.

Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

"it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not." - how can a Thai Court accept/enforce something that doesn't exist in Law?

"Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem." - I'm sure some as still happily married, while others lost everything, with some going over a balcony, either by choice, or by force.

"maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem." - so you would pay twice for your property????

"Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept." - why would anyone sell with a contract like that attached to the sale. It just wouldn't happen.

[nontabury]

So the 30yr lease is the only one recognised under Thai Law, it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not.

Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem.

As I said earlier in the event that the Thai becomes awkward, and knowing how many Thai's don't think too far in the future, then maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem.

Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

"it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not." - how can a Thai Court accept/enforce something that doesn't exist in Law?

"Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem." - I'm sure some as still happily married, while others lost everything, with some going over a balcony, either by choice, or by force.

"maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem." - so you would pay twice for your property????

"Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept." - why would anyone sell with a contract like that attached to the sale. It just wouldn't happen.

You seem to be having a problem in understanding what I'm saying, so once again.

As an example lets say the property is worth 8 million baht. The land itself being worth 1.5 million. After 15yrs you offer the Thai lease holder 50-100,000 to renew the lease for another 30 yrs, most Thai's would jump at that offer, as they would be in the Money Straight Away. You've got to remember that if they don't accept your generous offer, at the end of the 30 yrs you could legally pull down the house. Again I repeat Most Thais would accept this offer. Of course paying an extra 50-100,000 bht is not the best solution to this problem, but again this is only in the worst Scenario of events.

In the 2nd solution, I am assuming that after you had purchased the land, you would place the lease in the name of You're nominated lease holder, probably a friend, at the same time making out the per-sign document. If they have agreed to be the leaseholder, why should't they agree to sign the per-sign document, if they don't, that should make you think that perhaps you have chosen the wrong person to be your friend.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

[xylophone]

So the 30yr lease is the only one recognised under Thai Law, it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not.

Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem.

As I said earlier in the event that the Thai becomes awkward, and knowing how many Thai's don't think too far in the future, then maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem.

Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

"it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not." - how can a Thai Court accept/enforce something that doesn't exist in Law?

"Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem." - I'm sure some as still happily married, while others lost everything, with some going over a balcony, either by choice, or by force.

"maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem." - so you would pay twice for your property????

"Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept." - why would anyone sell with a contract like that attached to the sale. It just wouldn't happen.

You seem to be having a problem in understanding what I'm saying, so once again.

As an example lets say the property is worth 8 million baht. The land itself being worth 1.5 million. After 15yrs you offer the Thai lease holder 50-100,000 to renew the lease for another 30 yrs, most Thai's would jump at that offer, as they would be in the Money Straight Away. You've got to remember that if they don't accept your generous offer, at the end of the 30 yrs you could legally pull down the house. Again I repeat Most Thais would accept this offer. Of course paying an extra 50-100,000 bht is not the best solution to this problem, but again this is only in the worst Scenario of events.

In the 2nd solution, I am assuming that after you had purchased the land, you would place the lease in the name of You're nominated lease holder, probably a friend, at the same time making out the per-sign document. If they have agreed to be the leaseholder, why should't they agree to sign the per-sign document, if they don't, that should make you think that perhaps you have chosen the wrong person to be your friend.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

Far too many assumptions made here, the first being the value of the land with a property worth 8 million baht.

The second being that 15 years later the Thai leaseholder might accept 50 to 100,000 baht to renew the lease for another 30 years, when in that ensuing time the land will have probably doubled or more in value, so why would they accept that low offer?

As for legally pulling the house down at the end of 30 years, then I would imagine most Thais would be quite pleased if you did, because new buildings are much more preferable than 30-year-old buildings, and of course the land would be worth a small fortune on its own.

Generally, the land should continue to increase in value, whilst the building on it will decrease in value.

As for the thousands of condominiums/apartments being built, well these are a different matter altogether and it's not hard to see why they will not be the "sound investment" that the buyers first thought.

[NamKangMan]

So the 30yr lease is the only one recognised under Thai Law, it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not.

Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem.

As I said earlier in the event that the Thai becomes awkward, and knowing how many Thai's don't think too far in the future, then maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem.

Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

"it will be interesting to see if someone takes it to court for the extra 30yrs, maybe they will accept it, maybe they will not." - how can a Thai Court accept/enforce something that doesn't exist in Law?

"Some people, who presumably have made a wise decision as to whom they put the name on the lease, will have no problem, I certainly din't have a problem." - I'm sure some as still happily married, while others lost everything, with some going over a balcony, either by choice, or by force.

"maybe a financial inducement, might solve that problem." - so you would pay twice for your property????

"Regarding my 2nd solution to make out a pre- sign document. You would enter in the document that the sale would go through to any prospective buyer that You accept." - why would anyone sell with a contract like that attached to the sale. It just wouldn't happen.

You seem to be having a problem in understanding what I'm saying, so once again.

As an example lets say the property is worth 8 million baht. The land itself being worth 1.5 million. After 15yrs you offer the Thai lease holder 50-100,000 to renew the lease for another 30 yrs, most Thai's would jump at that offer, as they would be in the Money Straight Away. You've got to remember that if they don't accept your generous offer, at the end of the 30 yrs you could legally pull down the house. Again I repeat Most Thais would accept this offer. Of course paying an extra 50-100,000 bht is not the best solution to this problem, but again this is only in the worst Scenario of events.

In the 2nd solution, I am assuming that after you had purchased the land, you would place the lease in the name of You're nominated lease holder, probably a friend, at the same time making out the per-sign document. If they have agreed to be the leaseholder, why should't they agree to sign the per-sign document, if they don't, that should make you think that perhaps you have chosen the wrong person to be your friend.

Sent from my iPad using Thaivisa Connect Thailand

I understand your posts - do you understand mine?

"After 15yrs you offer the Thai lease holder 50-100,000 to renew the lease for another 30 yrs" - so you are paying twice, or paying more, are you not? Remember, you already paid 1.5 million for it 15 years previously.

Say you offer 100,000 baht to draw up a new 30 year lease and the owner says, "No. I want 1 million baht." - what are you going to do? Get the picture????

"at the end of the 30 yrs you could legally pull down the house" - yes, you could. There may be increase in bulldozer hire here in the future. However, the owner will probably pull down the house anyway because he has a big offer from a hotel or resort chain for his land, or, the house is 30 years old and it's time to build new - either way, you are out.

Remember, a lot of well positioned land was sold in the late 80's to early 90's.

Who will "own" the land under your "2nd solution?" Your "2nd solution" is probably not even enforcable under Thai Law as it's a restraint of trade.

Basically, someone can't "own" something at Law and only be able to sell it to someone who a non-owner decides it should be sold to because the non-owner has no rights over it, because they don't own it.

Edited May 20, 2014 by NamKangMan

[usasia8888]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

[nedkellylives]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

Villa's in that price range i have not seen one, most properties called villa's here are called

houses in other countries, and that's all they are

[usasia8888]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

Villa's in that price range i have not seen one, most properties called villa's here are called

houses in other countries, and that's all they are

While there are many websites which carry such properties such as:

www.siamrealestate.com

www.sothebysrealtyphuket.com

www.exotiqproperty.com

www.phuketbyhouse.com

for example.

[KarenBravo]

The ultra high-end properties, are usually in fantastic locations and I have read that that part of the market has always done well, consistently making profits on re-sale.

Most of the newer ones are now in Phang-Nga and are beach-front. Check out the one Kim Kardashian rented a couple of months ago.

http://www.hellomagazine.com/travel/2014040317957/where-the-kardashians-stayed-thailand-hotel/

[leggo]

A friend just bought a beautiful 3 bed plus guest house for 12 million / asking price 18 - that says it all!

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

[usasia8888]

The ultra high-end properties, are usually in fantastic locations and I have read that that part of the market has always done well, consistently making profits on re-sale.

Most of the newer ones are now in Phang-Nga and are beach-front. Check out the one Kim Kardashian rented a couple of months ago.

http://www.hellomagazine.com/travel/2014040317957/where-the-kardashians-stayed-thailand-hotel/

-----------------

not a fan of the Kardashians but the villa was very cool. I can't imagine living like that all year long but for a week or three, it would be a delight. Thanks for sharing.

[usasia8888]

A friend just bought a beautiful 3 bed plus guest house for 12 million / asking price 18 - that says it all!

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Discount was quite steep to say the least. I suspect 1. the asking price was unrealistic (we have HK property developers do this quite often and lets not even get into the false deals or bias marketing on views and sq footage), 2. owner has some financial problems and may had to execute (I saw one of the biggest discounts in a poor market due to a divorce) or 3. other.

Good for the buyer on the price. they must be satisified overall. Do you know what format they bought it in? Leasehold? Freehold? Usufruct? Offshore structure, etc?

[steelepulse]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

All of these properties are bought through the Thai company route, and the gov't knows full well about these. There was one in particular in Phang nga that the owner of California Fitness sold for either 12 million USD or 20 million USD and it was to a Russian guy. This was headline news in all the local rags and property mags/websites. A purchase doesn't get any more high profile than this.

[usasia8888]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

All of these properties are bought through the Thai company route, and the gov't knows full well about these. There was one in particular in Phang nga that the owner of California Fitness sold for either 12 million USD or 20 million USD and it was to a Russian guy. This was headline news in all the local rags and property mags/websites. A purchase doesn't get any more high profile than this.

----------------

thank you very much for the information. Appreciate real transaction situations.

[NamKangMan]

A friend just bought a beautiful 3 bed plus guest house for 12 million / asking price 18 - that says it all!

Sent from my i-mobile IQ 2 using Thaivisa Connect Thailand mobile app

Without seeing the property and the area, and reliable comparable sales data - it's possible the house was only worth 9 or 10 million. That says it all.

The listing price on Phuket means absolutely nothing.

[nedkellylives]

While there are many websites which carry such properties such as:

www.siamrealestate.com

www.sothebysrealtyphuket.com

www.exotiqproperty.com

www.phuketbyhouse.com

for example.

They wont find any buyers including you for those type of properties on this forum

Of coarse i could be wrong, you could be the last of the big spenders

[NamKangMan]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

All of these properties are bought through the Thai company route, and the gov't knows full well about these. There was one in particular in Phang nga that the owner of California Fitness sold for either 12 million USD or 20 million USD and it was to a Russian guy. This was headline news in all the local rags and property mags/websites. A purchase doesn't get any more high profile than this.

I haven't seen the property, but if the California Wow Group was involved, I'd say the Russian guys got ripped off by them, like so many others.

The below link is only one of their many dodgy dealings.

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/644965-california-wow-allegedly-siphoned-bt16-billion-overseas/

[Peterocket]

I just wonder with all the comments previously especially around the land issue, lease renewal (@ 30 years), etc and combining with what I see on several of the property "for sale" websites, who are the buyers and sellers at the 100mn to 300mn Baht Villas is see? Why would someone buy and/or sale at that level assuming the worst would happen? This doesnt make sense and wealthy people/investors are not dumb. Is it only Thai's who buy? are there structures which are use at the higher level assets are also relatively high but when spread out on expensive asset, the % is reasonable or low.

Villa's in that price range i have not seen one, most properties called villa's here are called

houses in other countries, and that's all they are

I think the new Aman properties in Surin which I believe started at 35m USD would be in the villa class. They sold out pretty fast too.