Bank of Thailand admits Q1 economic performance may enter negative territory

[webfact]

BoT admits Q1 economic performance may enter negative territory



BANGKOK, 16 May 2014, (NNT) - The Bank of Thailand (BoT) has acknowledged that the ongoing political conflict has placed tremendous strain on the local economy, pointing out that the first quarter’s economic growth would likely fall into the negative zone when compared with the fourth quarter of last year.

In reviewing the situation, the national bank spokeswoman, Rung Mullikamas, added that the BoT would thoroughly inspect 2013’s various economic performance figures from the office of the National Economic and Social Development Board on Monday, in order to accurately pinpoint economic stimulus factors.

She openly admitted that the political instability has greatly affected money flow especially during the past 2-4 weeks. Ms. Rung indicated that the cost of borrowing from international lenders had increased, reflecting the growing national risk index, despite the fact that the value of the baht is staying in line with regional currencies.

The BoT spokeswoman pointed out that neighboring nations’ risk indexes have declined, signaling that the international monetary market recognizes the depth of Thailand’s internal rift.


-- NNT 2014-05-16

[Piichai]

Looks like she's all set up for Skype!

Moody should be putting the boots in shortly...

Edited May 16, 2014 by Piichai

[EricBerg]

Another urgent reason for the political stalemate to end. Things will intensify more and more as the unpaid farmers are coming closer and closer to their finacial end. I fear we soon shall read about more suicides.

As both red and yellow leaders pretend to work for the people they should first of all find arrangements to pay the farmers. In general that will bring back consumer trust a bit more and thus push economy a little bit. Thai people desperately need good news.

[GentlemanJim]

Wow, she needs an image consultant and a new pen!

The problem with a financial landslide is it takes quite a while to get going, in fact often people can not see it even when it does start going. Momentum will then pick up very quickly and sadly at that point, before a recovery can be made the crash is inevitable and must take place. It will soon be a good time to transfer money back to Thailand. I think 60 baht to the GBP is just around the corner.

[JesseFrank]

Every circus needs a clown, that's obvious from the OP picture.

[Thai at Heart]

Wow, she needs an image consultant and a new pen!

The problem with a financial landslide is it takes quite a while to get going, in fact often people can not see it even when it does start going. Momentum will then pick up very quickly and sadly at that point, before a recovery can be made the crash is inevitable and must take place. It will soon be a good time to transfer money back to Thailand. I think 60 baht to the GBP is just around the corner.

Its possible, but reality is, this interim thing basically stops extra borrowing. So, from a debt perspective, it probably raises the quality of Thailand's fiscal position.

However, the uncertainty is nuts, but look at how Thailand is holding in there. Every year months of this nonsense. And yet,it still turns. Shows how truly insignificant thailand is in a global perspective.

[chotthee]

Looks like she's all set up for Skype!

Moody should be putting the boots in shortly...

You think the photo is at least 10 years old?

[Prbkk]

..a woman of very good sense and a fine economist. Pay attention to what she says..

[GentlemanJim]

..a woman of very good sense and a fine economist. Pay attention to what she says..

Not being funny but what did she say exactly?

Also, what did she say to earn the laudatory words from you that 'she is a fine economist' ?

An answer would be appreciated as i am keen to know where you set the bar.

[Dogmatix]

Ms Rung looks quite sweet but her jacket is way too big for her. Time for a new tailor for those TV appearances. A new hairdresser would help too.

[Thai at Heart]

Ms Rung looks quite sweet but her jacket is way too big for her. Time for a new tailor for those TV appearances. A new hairdresser would help too.

What?

That is standard hiso pooyai attire.

Without it, how would anyone know she was hiso?

[Prbkk]

..a woman of very good sense and a fine economist. Pay attention to what she says..

Not being funny but what did she say exactly?

Also, what did she say to earn the laudatory words from you that 'she is a fine economist' ?

An answer would be appreciated as i am keen to know where you set the bar.

She has been Director Macro Policy for some time. I have been impressed with her performance in that role..I think she's a rising star. Not a political comment.

[Lupatria]

I like the use of pure words of wisdom by her: "may" and "likely"

[bigbamboo]

She says the BoT will thoroughly inspect the NESDB figures for 2013 on Monday in order to accurately pinpoint economic stimulus factors.

I wonder if this in depth analysis will be carried out before or after lunch?

[laocowboy2]

It's not Q1 that they need to be worried about but rather Q2 and (the way things are going) probably Q3 as well. Part of what I do includes writing sections on the Thai economy - including the effect of politics. I am now waiting until the last second before publication to update this part - and even then it is going to be behind events.

Ref the big three rating agencies, I would not expect any action until well into Q3 at the earliest - and even then it would most likely be a downgrade of the Ratings Outlook to Negative from Stable.

[laocowboy2]

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Wow, she needs an image consultant and a new pen!

The problem with a financial landslide is it takes quite a while to get going, in fact often people can not see it even when it does start going. Momentum will then pick up very quickly and sadly at that point, before a recovery can be made the crash is inevitable and must take place. It will soon be a good time to transfer money back to Thailand. I think 60 baht to the GBP is just around the corner.

I wish ..... but probably not sadly. For the rate to move that far and that fast would require massive outflows of capital in a short period and no support from the BoT. As it is, Thailand has a fairly balanced current account and massive FX reserves. While foreign portfolio investors have no doubt been going underweight in Thai equities and fixed income, the stocks of both held by foreigners was never that large.

The factors that led to THB60 to the GBP in 1996-7 were a combination of NEGATIVE FX reserves (in that forward purchases of THB exceeded the cash FX reserves) and massive, un-hedged FX-denominated borrowings by Thai corporates and banks to (cheaply they thought) fund a massive real estate bubble. Neither are present this time.

THB 48 to the GBP might be possible this year (the THB is largely US$ linked while the GBP has been strengthening against the US$) but that is probably as good as it will get.

[Dogmatix]

Ms Rung looks quite sweet but her jacket is way too big for her. Time for a new tailor for those TV appearances. A new hairdresser would help too.

What?

That is standard hiso pooyai attire.

Without it, how would anyone know she was hiso?

She looks more like a scatty academic but just my opinion. I haven't met her. Used to go to the BoT sometimes and the lobby at 4pm is like a children's playground as the kids come in from the big tea money schools nearby to be taken home with Mum. No burning the midnight oil working on thorny macro problems there.

[trainman34014]

Nice smile; shame about the rest of the face, the haircut and the clothes. Errr; what was it she was on about ?