Special Report: BoT says Thai economic fundamentals are strong

[Lite Beer]

Special Report: BoT says Thai economic fundamentals are strong

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) says Thailand has a very strong economic foundation despite the heavy costs of political unrest.

Talking about the recent economic developments and outlook of the Thai economy, Governor of the Bank of Thailand Prasarn Trairatvorakul said that, in 2013, Thailand did not benefit from exports as much as expected, thanks to the weak global economic recovery and domestic supply constraints. Furthermore, tourism was seriously affected by the political crisis. Economic performance in the first quarter of 2014 was also unsatisfactory.

However, Dr. Prasarn pointed out that a second quarter of negative growth is unlikely to occur, as the latest economic data for March 2014 suggests that growth may have reached the lowest point. Furthermore, a so-called “technical recession” would occur only if economic fundamentals simultaneously deteriorated, which is a lengthy process. To date, this situation does not apply to Thailand.

He further explained that the country’s financial volatility is well-contained amidst the economic slowdown. Exchange rates have been relatively stable and international reserves have remained high, reflecting certain degree of confidence among foreign investors and appropriate exchange rate management. Inflation expectations are firmly anchored, allowing monetary policy some room to address the downside. Thailand benefits from this stability because consistent macroeconomic policy commands credibility from the public.

He added that the unemployment rate in Thailand is low and stable, leaving households with enough purchasing power to start spending again when the economy rebounds. Greatly adding to the strength of domestic purchasing power is the export sector. Global recovery has become firmer, as recent economic indicators reflect the more resilient recovery in advanced economies.

The overall impact for Thailand is that exports are still expected to be the country’s main engine of growth in 2014. The risk to watch out for concerning exports stems again from the monetary policy changes of advanced economies. These policy changes could cause an economic slowdown in ASEAN and China, further affecting Thai exports to these countries. However, this type of risk is still remote. Dr. Prasarn stated that other fundamentals included Thailand’s location and workforce advantages. Thailand is located in the center of ASEAN and has well-developed logistics. It serves as a hub for trade with the CLMV countries – Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. This presents an opportunity to access fast-growing markets.

As for the workforce, Thailand’s semi-skilled labor fills an important niche in the world market. The return to net inflow of foreign investment since the beginning of April 2014 indicates the return of foreign interest in Thailand. However, Thailand’s structural improvement has a long way to go. Furthermore, economic fundamentals may be eroded if political uncertainty and global risks intensify.

-- NNT 2014-05-17

[Piichai]

Governor of the Bank of Thailand Prasarn Trairatvorakul said that, in 2013, Thailand did not benefit from exports as much as expected, thanks to the weak global economic recovery and domestic supply constraints.

Not to mention the rice scam...

[Thaddeus]

Quick, write some spiel for potential investors.

Tick.

[alant]

So yesterday it was doom and gloom and today all problems have gone away, amazing Thailand.

[Lupatria]

Another guy with a dusty crystal ball.

[belg]

did we not have a report a few weeks ago that thais are deeply imbedded into heavy household debt ?

so how will those start spending again ?

or do they mean, families with farang ATM buffalos paying for everything ?

[Bignose]

I don't think he needs a "dusty crystal ball" With an Honors qualification and a Masters Degree in Engineering, and a Harvard Doctorate in Business Admin. he (and the rest of the board of BoT) will be well able and capable of setting the agenda here in Thailand.

Unfortunately it is the rest of the rabble who have been mismanaging the economy, and misappropriating/stealing from the very people they have been selected to serve, who are driving this country into the ground.

With my limited knowledge of the Thai economy I agree with everything he says, unfortunately this country may never actually achieve anything like it's true potential, while the present crop of "leaders" squabble over the trough.

Sad, so very sad.

[chiang mai]

I don't think he needs a "dusty crystal ball" With an Honors qualification and a Masters Degree in Engineering, and a Harvard Doctorate in Business Admin. he (and the rest of the board of BoT) will be well able and capable of setting the agenda here in Thailand.

Unfortunately it is the rest of the rabble who have been mismanaging the economy, and misappropriating/stealing from the very people they have been selected to serve, who are driving this country into the ground.

With my limited knowledge of the Thai economy I agree with everything he says, unfortunately this country may never actually achieve anything like it's true potential, while the present crop of "leaders" squabble over the trough.

Sad, so very sad.

Yes, very much agreed, give it time however.

Belg: imbedded, say what!

[MacWalen]

This place just cannot go down, the world loves Thailand! I love Thailand! Just too much good will out there.

[Pib]

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) says Thailand has a very strong economic foundation despite the heavy costs of political unrest.

Of course Thailand's head bankster would say above...it's vague, financial talk...and usually always presented in a positive light...a cheer leading tone. Any country's head bankster would do the same even if the country was inches away from going over the financial cliff (not to imply Thailand is in that position).

[VegasVic]

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BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) says Thailand has a very strong economic foundation despite the heavy costs of political unrest.

Of course Thailand's head bankster would say above...it's vague, financial talk...and usually always presented in a positive light...a cheer leading tone. Any country's head bankster would do the same even if the country was inches away from going over the financial cliff (not to imply Thailand is in that position).

That is part of their job as head bankster, to try and shore up confidence In reality I think most of us know that Thailand is currently in a recession, it will not be formally announced until sometime in late July when Q2's numbers are in, but with one bad quarter already in the bag and suthep and his minions still causing problems, Q2 will likely follow suit. Given the current world economic situation especially in the EU countries I think the Baht needs to fall a bit further before exports can really begin to help the Thai economy out, this should happen gradually as investment Dollars continue to flow out of the Kingdom. The real question is will the Thai people pull in their horns and cut back their spending given all this political uncertainty???

[VegasVic]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) says Thailand has a very strong economic foundation despite the heavy costs of political unrest.

Of course Thailand's head bankster would say above...it's vague, financial talk...and usually always presented in a positive light...a cheer leading tone. Any country's head bankster would do the same even if the country was inches away from going over the financial cliff (not to imply Thailand is in that position).

That is part of their job as head bankster, to try and shore up confidence alt=thumbsup.gif> In reality I think most of us know that Thailand is currently in a recession, it will not be formally announced until sometime in late July when Q2's numbers are in, but with one bad quarter already in the bag and suthep and his minions still causing problems, Q2 will likely follow suit. Given the current world economic situation especially in the EU countries I think the Baht needs to fall a bit further before exports can really begin to help the Thai economy out, this should happen gradually as investment Dollars continue to flow out of the Kingdom. The real question is will the Thai people pull in their horns and cut back their spending given all this political uncertainty???

I almost forgot to mention perhaps the most important ancillary economic problem facing the entire region, and that is the potentiality of a Banking/Real estate crash in China, if this were to occur sometime in the next 6 months then Thailand could face the perfect storm. All the more reason to get their political house in order ASAP!

[Pib]

And just like afternoon thunderstorms in Thailand which seem to come out of no where, that perfect financial storm for Thailand (or any country) could be just around the corner. Seems every X-years that financial thunder storm comes out of the blue.

Hey, that's some pretty vague talk....maybe I should have been a bankster (or politician).

[ezzra]

what else you expect them to say? that the economy is not doing well? the motto

is give them good news, and we get caught lying, will blame someone/something

for it......

[ezzra]

what else you expect them to say? that the economy is not doing well? the motto

is give them good news, and we get caught lying, will blame someone/something

for it......

[Thai at Heart]

The fundamentals are fine. Its just there is a fundamental issue which is there is no government,no election and no way out of it.

Fundamentally the sky isn't falling .........

Yet

[chiang mai]

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<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand (BoT) says Thailand has a very strong economic foundation despite the heavy costs of political unrest.

Of course Thailand's head bankster would say above...it's vague, financial talk...and usually always presented in a positive light...a cheer leading tone. Any country's head bankster would do the same even if the country was inches away from going over the financial cliff (not to imply Thailand is in that position).

That is part of their job as head bankster, to try and shore up confidence alt=thumbsup.gif> In reality I think most of us know that Thailand is currently in a recession, it will not be formally announced until sometime in late July when Q2's numbers are in, but with one bad quarter already in the bag and suthep and his minions still causing problems, Q2 will likely follow suit. Given the current world economic situation especially in the EU countries I think the Baht needs to fall a bit further before exports can really begin to help the Thai economy out, this should happen gradually as investment Dollars continue to flow out of the Kingdom. The real question is will the Thai people pull in their horns and cut back their spending given all this political uncertainty???

I almost forgot to mention perhaps the most important ancillary economic problem facing the entire region, and that is the potentiality of a Banking/Real estate crash in China, if this were to occur sometime in the next 6 months then Thailand could face the perfect storm. All the more reason to get their political house in order ASAP!

And let's not overlook the possibility that an asteroid could hit Bangkok and destroy the capital.

[peterquixote]

yes indeed : we return soon to Thailand collapsing Baht,

was 24 aqainst $NZ1 last year

now 27 against $NZ dollar

Good strong fundamentals Thaksin, but who cares,

drain the lifeblood of your people you dog, you better dead in the gutter,

many people now ready

[noodle]

I don't think he needs a "dusty crystal ball" With an Honors qualification and a Masters Degree in Engineering, and a Harvard Doctorate in Business Admin. he (and the rest of the board of BoT) will be well able and capable of setting the agenda here in Thailand.

Well even the soi dogs have bus admin degrees:)

What use is an engineering degree to a person who takes 6 paras to say nothing?

[Thaddeus]

I don't think he needs a "dusty crystal ball" With an Honors qualification and a Masters Degree in Engineering, and a Harvard Doctorate in Business Admin. he (and the rest of the board of BoT) will be well able and capable of setting the agenda here in Thailand.

Well even the soi dogs have bus admin degrees:)

What use is an engineering degree to a person who takes 6 paras to say nothing?

He could make a paper airplane out of it.