Would Ebola Make You Leave Chiang Mai

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^^ I would think it depends on the sequence of events

If Thailand was an early hotspot various countries might very well.

Well along into series of fallen dominoes then completely agree

[Ned]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

Here is the true wrinkle

The virus does currently burn out in humans because of it's gestation period and how quickly it kills it's host.

If the virus reached Thailand via humans and was not contained and

jumped to a suitable host such as one or more of abundant populations of bat's in SEA

Then this virus does not burn out

It just cycles thru animal populations mutating and experimenting on human populations such as hilltribes

Until it can offer a better version to infect the larger human populations of the region.

An effective vaccine is necessary at that point for Thailand to not be in the same cycle as West Africa.

[Konini]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

That is something that flickered across my mind and was chased away very quickly because I didn't want to think about it.

It is truly a disgusting and despicable act that the brainwashed evangelists of any religion, not just muslims could be either persuaded to do or acting alone would do.

The world would have no defense to such actions. If there is a Big Fella Upstairs, I hope he doesn't allow those with a case of the crazies to have the foresight to think about doing this, because it would be a very effective way of causing economic chaos; I've never doubted for one minute that was the intention of Osama Bin Laden when he planned the events of 9th September 2001. Kill a few thousand, OK, any terrorist act if well planned and funded can do that and will have a big short term impact, but the way that those terrorist acts were carried out ensured that the the economic aftershocks - the increased spending on security and tying up of resources - is going to cripple western economies for decades to come. I remember saying that to Mr K only a day or so after it happened; I've always been convinced that was a very big part of the planning. When things such as that happen, as a particularly vengeful person, I put myself in the position of the offender and ask myself what I would do, and if I were Tracey the Terrorist, I would be concentrating on economic chaos rather than wasting time killing people - I grew up during the years of IRA activity in England, I know it's awful when people are killed, but you forget about it pretty soon and get on with life as per usual. It would be so much more effective to hit people in their pockets rather than wasting money on bombs. Tie up resources and unspecified amounts of money in making sure I don't do the same kind of thing again. Forever. Weaken the economy. Play the long game, and plan other ways to further weaken the economy in ways nobody will expect, such as flying planes into buildings. Or sending out human time bombs to infect the masses.

I have a very evil streak in me, although I try very hard to be a good person. I would make a very good James Bond villain. I'm actually surprised nobody has thought of doing this before - I have thought about it several times although I try to put such scenarios out of my mind quite quickly - or perhaps they have thought of it and just haven't been able to find a way of infecting the initial people. I don't imagine it would be easy, but I'm sure that even without any medical knowledge I'd find a way of doing it if I really wanted to. I can do pretty much anything if I'm determined enough.

I really can be quite evil, I just hope others aren't, or that the terrorists don't have the brains to think of doing this, because it would be very, very effective.

[uptheos]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

A few moths supply of baked beans and no one will come near you.

[Tokay]

FACT: Thailand will downplay any Ebola outbreaks in an attempt to save what is left of tourism.

Look back at how SARS, Swine, and Bird Flu were treated. Once the numbers reached a certain level and the news was reporting them, the government stepped in and would only permit the news to report the "official" numbers the government gave the news. No official numbers, they were not allowed to report it. And guess what, it wasn't spoken of again. Swept under the rug as if it never existed. That is exactly what is going to happen with Ebola WHEN it reaches Thailand, if it's not here already. Thailand will not treat this any differently than they did any other issue in the past. Anything to save tourism, even if it costs the lives of 100s or 1000s.

That said, Thailand isn't equipped to deal with it. They think they are, but look at what is happening in the USA and Spain, proper professionals in protective gear STILL got infected. You think the Thais will be as meticulous as westerners? Not a chance. Ebola will ravage Thailand like it is doing to parts of Africa right now. Count on it. All you can do is hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

Don't take my silly words for it though, look it up yourself and see how they have dealt with past outbreaks. It is shameful.

[Cheesekraft]

so many health care workers in full biosafety level 4 hazmat suits getting infected, and the CDC is now saying ebola can spread "in close quarters" without physical contact. I think it might be worse than they had originally expected.

FACT: Thailand will downplay any Ebola outbreaks in an attempt to save what is left of tourism.

Look back at how SARS, Swine, and Bird Flu were treated. Once the numbers reached a certain level and the news was reporting them, the government stepped in and would only permit the news to report the "official" numbers the government gave the news. No official numbers, they were not allowed to report it. And guess what, it wasn't spoken of again. Swept under the rug as if it never existed. That is exactly what is going to happen with Ebola WHEN it reaches Thailand, if it's not here already. Thailand will not treat this any differently than they did any other issue in the past. Anything to save tourism, even if it costs the lives of 100s or 1000s.

That said, Thailand isn't equipped to deal with it. They think they are, but look at what is happening in the USA and Spain, proper professionals in protective gear STILL got infected. You think the Thais will be as meticulous as westerners? Not a chance. Ebola will ravage Thailand like it is doing to parts of Africa right now. Count on it. All you can do is hope for the best, but plan for the worst.

Don't take my silly words for it though, look it up yourself and see how they have dealt with past outbreaks. It is shameful.

[FolkGuitar]

Stay. I wouldn't know if I was already infected, and leaving would possibly do more damage by spreading the disease.

[Bill97]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

That is something that flickered across my mind and was chased away very quickly because I didn't want to think about it.

It is truly a disgusting and despicable act that the brainwashed evangelists of any religion, not just muslims could be either persuaded to do or acting alone would do.

The world would have no defense to such actions. If there is a Big Fella Upstairs, I hope he doesn't allow those with a case of the crazies to have the foresight to think about doing this, because it would be a very effective way of causing economic chaos; I've never doubted for one minute that was the intention of Osama Bin Laden when he planned the events of 9th September 2001. Kill a few thousand, OK, any terrorist act if well planned and funded can do that and will have a big short term impact, but the way that those terrorist acts were carried out ensured that the the economic aftershocks - the increased spending on security and tying up of resources - is going to cripple western economies for decades to come. I remember saying that to Mr K only a day or so after it happened; I've always been convinced that was a very big part of the planning. When things such as that happen, as a particularly vengeful person, I put myself in the position of the offender and ask myself what I would do, and if I were Tracey the Terrorist, I would be concentrating on economic chaos rather than wasting time killing people - I grew up during the years of IRA activity in England, I know it's awful when people are killed, but you forget about it pretty soon and get on with life as per usual. It would be so much more effective to hit people in their pockets rather than wasting money on bombs. Tie up resources and unspecified amounts of money in making sure I don't do the same kind of thing again. Forever. Weaken the economy. Play the long game, and plan other ways to further weaken the economy in ways nobody will expect, such as flying planes into buildings. Or sending out human time bombs to infect the masses.

I have a very evil streak in me, although I try very hard to be a good person. I would make a very good James Bond villain. I'm actually surprised nobody has thought of doing this before - I have thought about it several times although I try to put such scenarios out of my mind quite quickly - or perhaps they have thought of it and just haven't been able to find a way of infecting the initial people. I don't imagine it would be easy, but I'm sure that even without any medical knowledge I'd find a way of doing it if I really wanted to. I can do pretty much anything if I'm determined enough.

Y

I really can be quite evil, I just hope others aren't, or that the terrorists don't have the brains to think of doing this, because it would be very, very effective.

It is amazing io have someone with your exceptional brainpower on this forum to provide us with such ideas. Certainly terrorists can not approach your intellect so we need not worry.

What I worry about is the farangs here who who seem to go off frequently.

[Rancid]

It will be intersting to see how bad this gets, there are numerous stakeholders who would do very nicely from an outbreak. If it does take off then better to choose where you want to be as travel restrictions could become severe. Likewise when a vaccine miraculously appears, may need those papers to be allowed on a plane.

Seems there are ways to deal with Ebola for those that are interested to search hard enough, otherewise just hope the vaccine isn't as dodgy as some others that have been released lately. A recent article in the guardian stated that "researchers say benefits of antiviral drugs (such as Tamiflu) may have been inflated by pharmeceutical companies." In other words governments got suckered into buying useless cures. I mean, if you can't trust Big Pharma...

[uptheos]

It will be intersting to see how bad this gets, there are numerous stakeholders who would do very nicely from an outbreak. If it does take off then better to choose where you want to be as travel restrictions could become severe. Likewise when a vaccine miraculously appears, may need those papers to be allowed on a plane.

Seems there are ways to deal with Ebola for those that are interested to search hard enough, otherewise just hope the vaccine isn't as dodgy as some others that have been released lately. A recent article in the guardian stated that "researchers say benefits of antiviral drugs (such as Tamiflu) may have been inflated by pharmeceutical companies." In other words governments got suckered into buying useless cures. I mean, if you can't trust Big Pharma...

I'm not so sure we will see a vaccine, whilst big pharma can maintain a withholding mechanism and the price is set ridiculously high in order to pay for the development and production costs. Ebola isn't the common cold it is a rare disease (or was) and it really has been nonexistent in the developed countries of the world. I can't imagine that it will be an easy job getting anyone to pay for a vaccine at such high prices.

[uptheos]

Stay. I wouldn't know if I was already infected, and leaving would possibly do more damage by spreading the disease.

I think you are in the majority and as you quite rightly say if you had it then you could spread it.

IF it were more than an isolated case, I'm wondering how people who haven't planned would survive for all their needs. I mean where would you dare to go and would you mix with people?

[Chicog]

Here is the true wrinkle

The virus does currently burn out in humans because of it's gestation period and how quickly it kills it's host.

Yeah right.

GENEVA -- The death rate in the Ebola outbreak has risen to 70 percent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organization warned Tuesday.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

well if you read this article the leading scientist isn't currently of the opinion the virus can sustain without non human vectors.

You might be right. Especially if it continues to mutate.

I was more making the point that bats etc are critical to keep it going

http://www.vox.com/2014/10/13/6959087/ebola-outbreak-virus-mutated-airborne

": Why are you optimistic about this epidemic burning out?

PJ: In this epidemic, it would appear that there have been multiple introductions [of the virus from animals to humans]. It's not all person to person transmission. It's coming from animals again and again. [This means people need to be near potential animal hosts — believed to be fruit bats endemic to Africa — to get the virus.] Now there are all these different strains. That could also mean the virus is more mutable. We can't yet say. I think it's unlikely that this thing is going to perpetuate in humans."

Back to my earlier point if Ebola makes it via human to Thailand or nearby and infiltrates a suitable host like bats then it's develop a vaccine or live under constant threat of the virus remerging bigger and badder in SEA.

Edited October 15, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

"IF" there is a vaccine then the big powers USA, EU and China have a massive incentive to fork out and save the global economy from imploding.

Even big Pharma can't make money if large populations are turned into goo.

Will be interesting though how even that effort is doled out.

Some non team players could be allowed to roast over the open fire.

Having said that WHO/CDC are fairly level headed and pragmatic.

[northernjohn]

I just read a report on Ebola. 4,000 dead. In the same period of time there has been more suicides. Every year 500,000 die of Flu and the list went on.

There have been quite a few outbreaks of the disease in the last 35 years yet we are still here. It has been well covered here that it is not that easy to get. It is not airborne it is bodily fluids that carry it and you must come in contact with some how. Latex gloves would do the trick in most cases where it is present which it is not here in Chiang Mai.

Would I leave Chiang Mai of course not. Will I waste my time worrying over it.

No well to the same degree I worry over getting the Flu, Measles Shingles, Polio and on the list goes.

It is kind of like the disease of the year club.

Edited October 15, 2014 by northernjohn

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

^^ N. J.

With respect your brain is broken

Go look at how many people were dying from Spanish Flu in 1916-17. Hardly if any.

By 1919 it was over 50 million dead.

Your logic is impressively flawed.

Many of the victims in 1918 were waking up feeling fine and by nightfall they were dead.

Edited October 15, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[northernjohn]

^^ N. J.

With respect your brain is broken

Go look at how many people were dying from Spanish Flu in 1916-17. Hardly if any.

By 1919 it was over 50 million dead.

Your logic is impressively flawed.

Many of the victims in 1918 were waking up feeling fine and by nightfall they were dead.

If 500,000 a year die from Flu today how many are you predicting in 2016.

Just using your logic.

[CobraSnakeNecktie]

I am making critical mistake arguing with a .......

but here goes

All predictions have to include probabilities

For predicting flu deaths since there are existing and fairly effective flu vaccines for known flu strains a high probability expectation would be in range 500K plus or minus some standard deviations.

Those predictions would thrown out the window with the emergence of a new flu strain that eluded current vaccines.

Ever try to predict stock, bond or currency markets?

Trends persist until they utterly and abruptly change direction due to new unforseen influences

Ebola is a new variable that is difficult to predict using empirical performance.

So using the past performance of Ebola has very low probability due to recently mutated new characteristics.

Edited October 15, 2014 by CobraSnakeNecktie

[Konini]

GENEVA -- The death rate in the Ebola outbreak has risen to 70 percent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organization warned Tuesday.

I heard this on the radio this morning. I can't pull the exact number from my memory banks, but a couple of weeks ago I'm 99% certain that the figure was sub 65%. I'd go as far as saying 63 point something percent.

This means it's either mutating, or the reporting standards have changed; both are possible. Mutation, obviously. With the increase in the number of deaths, and if my memory is serving correctly that's a fair old spike (I'm not clever, I'm just good with numbers, and a 5%+ increase in anything is significant) I have to ask myself are more non-fatal cases out in the bush being not reported for reasons I wouldn't even try too hard to explain? Not the healthcare workers, it's not in their interests to under-report, but out in the villages themselves, are families starting to hide people away as they did with the bubonic plague back in medieval times (and quite possible amongst the uneducated in more recent times)?

[uptheos]

I just read a report on Ebola. 4,000 dead. In the same period of time there has been more suicides. Every year 500,000 die of Flu and the list went on.

There have been quite a few outbreaks of the disease in the last 35 years yet we are still here. It has been well covered here that it is not that easy to get. It is not airborne it is bodily fluids that carry it and you must come in contact with some how. Latex gloves would do the trick in most cases where it is present which it is not here in Chiang Mai.

Would I leave Chiang Mai of course not. Will I waste my time worrying over it.

No well to the same degree I worry over getting the Flu, Measles Shingles, Polio and on the list goes.

It is kind of like the disease of the year club.

I bet shingles wasn't even on your mind until you received a certain clinic's email recently.

[anselpixel]

A mutation that raises the rate of fatalities works against the survival of the virus, so it's actually a benefit to humans.

I wouldn't plan on leaving anywhere because of Ebola, or any other virus. This is one instance in which a moving target is easier to hit.

I might do what people did during the plagues in Europe - retreat from the city.

My guess is that we will see one or more vaccines come online as soon as the virus shows any signs of burning out in Africa. A lot of people are going to die, but most of them will live in close proximity to the current hot zone.

[uptheos]

GENEVA -- The death rate in the Ebola outbreak has risen to 70 percent and there could be up to 10,000 new cases a week in two months, the World Health Organization warned Tuesday.

I heard this on the radio this morning. I can't pull the exact number from my memory banks, but a couple of weeks ago I'm 99% certain that the figure was sub 65%. I'd go as far as saying 63 point something percent.

This means it's either mutating, or the reporting standards have changed; both are possible. Mutation, obviously. With the increase in the number of deaths, and if my memory is serving correctly that's a fair old spike (I'm not clever, I'm just good with numbers, and a 5%+ increase in anything is significant) I have to ask myself are more non-fatal cases out in the bush being not reported for reasons I wouldn't even try too hard to explain? Not the healthcare workers, it's not in their interests to under-report, but out in the villages themselves, are families starting to hide people away as they did with the bubonic plague back in medieval times (and quite possible amongst the uneducated in more recent times)?

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the number of people infected with Ebola has been severely underestimated because of family members hiding the infected. and governments are putting laws into place so it must be a problem. No doubt this problem isn't confined to African countries

"Sierra Leone declared on Friday August 22 that attempting to hide people suffering from Ebola is punishable by up to two years in prison. The government hopes that this will be an incentive for people to stop harboring family members inflicted with the disease and bring a stop to the spread of Ebola, which has reached epidemic levels in Africa".

I really wonder if they would dare go into a families house and cart people off to prison!!!

Edited October 15, 2014 by uptheos

[anselpixel]

Outside of West Africa, 16 cases of Ebola have been reported, almost all of which involve health care workers who have returned from West Africa to their native countries.

I seriously doubt the world's health care system will be overwhelmed, but there is a necessary level of caution to be observed. We all know airplanes and airports can be problematic, but so far they have not been the source of infections outside Africa.

I have friends in the US wringing their hands over school children going on a field trip to South Africa because of the continent where it's located.

There's more distance between the outbreak and South Africa than there is between Chicago and the North Pole, but panic is the order of the day.

[Konini]

The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the number of people infected with Ebola has been severely underestimated because of family members hiding the infected. and governments are putting laws into place so it must be a problem. No doubt this problem isn't confined to African countries

"Sierra Leone declared on Friday August 22 that attempting to hide people suffering from Ebola is punishable by up to two years in prison. The government hopes that this will be an incentive for people to stop harboring family members inflicted with the disease and bring a stop to the spread of Ebola, which has reached epidemic levels in Africa".

I really wonder if they would dare go into a families house and cart people off to prison!!!

I hadn't read that, but it doesn't surprise me. I remember years ago in primary school learning about the ignorant villagers hiding the 'unclean' away so they weren't banished up to the hills or put into mass burial sites (also known as big holes that the unclean were pushed into with pitchforks) to keep them from infecting the whole village. It was really gruesome stuff to a class full of 7 year olds, we couldn't imagine it, but we didn't doubt it; teachers don't tell lies, it must have happened. People will go to extreme lengths to protect their kith and kin, although we were children and didn't understand such emotions back then.

Hmm. Let me see. Two years in prison and maybe die of ebola or put my fingers in my ears and sing 'La la la la' and pretend it's not happening. Hmm. Decisions, decisions. The education at the most basic and isolated villages has to be moved up a gear.

And those charged with 'Bring out your living' would have to be very highly paid. It's an empty threat - nobody in their right mind is going to do that job. Or should I say nobody who understands the seriousness of the health risk is going to do that job, any others who would should be ruled out as they obviously wouldn't be capable of taking it seriously and would be easily paid off by desperate families.

[mesquite]

I think it's good that Ebola has arrived in the US and the general public is scared..

That is probably because you are over here.

No, I stand by the reasoning presented in my original post. And it looks like I'm getting my wish: A second health-care worker has tested positive for Ebola in Texas.

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

Dallas nurses describe Ebola hospital care: 'There was no protocol'

Los Angeles Times

A Liberian man who arrived by ambulance at a Dallas hospital with symptoms of Ebola sat for "several hours" in a room with other patients before being put in isolation, and the nurses who treated him wore flimsy gowns and had little protective gear, nurses alleged Tuesday as they fought back against suggestions that one of their own had erred in handling him.

The statements came as Nina Pham, a 26-year-old nurse at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas, fought off the Ebola virus after contracting it from the Liberian, Thomas Eric Duncan. The statements by the Dallas hospital nurses were read by representatives of the Oakland-based group National Nurses United.

-------------------------------------------

When a nurse supervisor demanded that he be moved into isolation, the supervisor "faced resistance from other hospital authorities," the nurses said.

They described a hospital with no clear guidelines in place for handling Ebola patients, where Duncan's lab specimens were sent through the usual hospital tube system "without being specifically sealed and hand-delivered. The result is that the entire tube system, which all the lab systems are sent, was potentially contaminated," they said.

"There was no advanced preparedness on what to do with the patient. There was no protocol; there was no system. The nurses were asked to call the infectious disease department" if they had questions, they said.

The nurses said they were essentially left to figure things out for themselves as they dealt with "copious amounts" of body fluids from Duncan while wearing gloves with no wrist tapes, gowns that did not cover their necks, and no surgical booties. Protective gear eventually arrived, but not until three days after Duncan's admission to the hospital, they said.

MORE:

A second Texas healthcare worker who treated the first patient in the United States to be diagnosed with Ebola has tested positive for the disease, the Texas Department of State Health Services said in a statement on Wednesday.

The worker at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital, who cared for Thomas Eric Duncan, was immediately isolated after reporting a fever on Tuesday, the department said.

"Health officials have interviewed the latest patient to quickly identify any contacts or potential exposures, and those people will be monitored," the department said.

MORE:

Edited October 15, 2014 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[northernjohn]

A new type of "suicide bomber" might emerge. Willing martyrs infected with the virus could be sent to strike down offensive infidels in evil lands, Heavily sweating, salivating ........ pushing through crowded areas dispensing the viral load onto the unsuspecting hosts.

Think I'll go and pick up a few months supply of baked beans and bottled water.

That is something that flickered across my mind and was chased away very quickly because I didn't want to think about it.

It is truly a disgusting and despicable act that the brainwashed evangelists of any religion, not just muslims could be either persuaded to do or acting alone would do.

The world would have no defense to such actions. If there is a Big Fella Upstairs, I hope he doesn't allow those with a case of the crazies to have the foresight to think about doing this, because it would be a very effective way of causing economic chaos; I've never doubted for one minute that was the intention of Osama Bin Laden when he planned the events of 9th September 2001. Kill a few thousand, OK, any terrorist act if well planned and funded can do that and will have a big short term impact, but the way that those terrorist acts were carried out ensured that the the economic aftershocks - the increased spending on security and tying up of resources - is going to cripple western economies for decades to come. I remember saying that to Mr K only a day or so after it happened; I've always been convinced that was a very big part of the planning. When things such as that happen, as a particularly vengeful person, I put myself in the position of the offender and ask myself what I would do, and if I were Tracey the Terrorist, I would be concentrating on economic chaos rather than wasting time killing people - I grew up during the years of IRA activity in England, I know it's awful when people are killed, but you forget about it pretty soon and get on with life as per usual. It would be so much more effective to hit people in their pockets rather than wasting money on bombs. Tie up resources and unspecified amounts of money in making sure I don't do the same kind of thing again. Forever. Weaken the economy. Play the long game, and plan other ways to further weaken the economy in ways nobody will expect, such as flying planes into buildings. Or sending out human time bombs to infect the masses.

I have a very evil streak in me, although I try very hard to be a good person. I would make a very good James Bond villain. I'm actually surprised nobody has thought of doing this before - I have thought about it several times although I try to put such scenarios out of my mind quite quickly - or perhaps they have thought of it and just haven't been able to find a way of infecting the initial people. I don't imagine it would be easy, but I'm sure that even without any medical knowledge I'd find a way of doing it if I really wanted to. I can do pretty much anything if I'm determined enough.

Y

I really can be quite evil, I just hope others aren't, or that the terrorists don't have the brains to think of doing this, because it would be very, very effective.

It is amazing io have someone with your exceptional brainpower on this forum to provide us with such ideas. Certainly terrorists can not approach your intellect so we need not worry.

What I worry about is the farangs here who who seem to go off frequently.

Well you have to admit it is a remote possibility. Very very remote. I am quite sure that the terrorists have considered it but realized they to were vulnerable and they are not all crazy enough to deliberately commit suicide.

[northernjohn]

I am making critical mistake arguing with a .......

but here goes

All predictions have to include probabilities

For predicting flu deaths since there are existing and fairly effective flu vaccines for known flu strains a high probability expectation would be in range 500K plus or minus some standard deviations.

Those predictions would thrown out the window with the emergence of a new flu strain that eluded current vaccines.

Ever try to predict stock, bond or currency markets?

Trends persist until they utterly and abruptly change direction due to new unforseen influences

Ebola is a new variable that is difficult to predict using empirical performance.

So using the past performance of Ebola has very low probability due to recently mutated new characteristics.

Try predicting it based on there has been about out breaks of it in the last 35 years and we are still here. That on top of the fact that medical science has come a long way. When aid's first came out every one thought the world was going to end. We are still here. Paranoia is not my middle name.

[onthedarkside]

Flame post removed.