Russian Currency Tumbles As Investors Panic

[KarenBravo]

I am presently on a Russian ship surrounded by Russians.

Russians hate Putin, but, what they hate worse than Putin is criticism of Putin by Westerners.

That's why you hear Russians defending him. Among themselves, they loath him.

[F430murci]

This breaks my heart. So many good, hard working people in Russia are really suffering right now. Once you get outside Moscow or St. Petersburg, the reality is much worse than the media portrays.

I suggest that you start a collection this way you will feel better and help the poor fools that makeup Russia

What??? That is a stupid arrssee statement.

Hard working poor Russians break the heart while hard working poor Americans are takers who break the budget.

Ghettoized Americans are thugs but Russian oligarchs are businessmen.

It takes me a half second to see the absurdity of that...and much more.

Many Russians would give body parts to have the opportunities we have here yet we have so many here that squander those opportunities. Sitting on ones fat arrssee eating Bon Bons watching Montel is hardly hard working.

[scubascuba3]

I am presently on a Russian ship surrounded by Russians.

Russians hate Putin, but, what they hate worse than Putin is criticism of Putin by Westerners.

That's why you hear Russians defending him. Among themselves, they loath him.

Apparently he has paid himself 100s of millions, that can't be right?

[CharlieH]

US slur removed

[Asiantravel]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

[Publicus]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

[F430murci]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

Deliberately? Maybe.

I said this would happen several months ago in the following post, much to the consternation of AsianTravel, Harsh Jones and a few other Zerohedgers.

---------

My post from August 7:

"RE: Russia export/economy

Gotta love the humorous, wonderful advice as to what Russia should do to teach the big bad West a lesson. Do you guys even think through what you type????? Let's exmine economic impact to Russia for a reduction in just oil export dollars.

Putin and the oligarchs are terrified of US driving oil prices down just $10 per barrel which would cause $40 bn in losses to Russia. US could decrease price $10 to $12 through release of 500,000 reserve barrells a day. Price could be cut to $85 with an increase in production causing $80 to $100 bn in export losses to Russia.

Russia only has $505 bn in total exports, compared to US's $ 1.6 trillion. Russia will be bankrupted and in thrown into depression by $40 to $80 bn in losses caused by a mere $10 to $20 decrease in oil prices.

Then we have the rocket scientists declaring that Russia could just turn off oil exports to teach the big bad West a lesson. Yep, that will show them. Russia will lose $300 to $350 bn of its total export revenue and about 15% of it entire GDP. Great advise, except you guys will have to create a new term for the resulting economic impact of your wonderful suggestions because "depression" ust would not do it justice."

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/topic/749564-ukraine-crisis-putin-orders-retaliatory-sanctions/

[Asiantravel]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

Publicus please elaborate by what standards you describe the existing scenario as “existing successful international system ”. if you consider the existing system as representing success I dread to think what failure would look like? And what on earth is wrong with China and Russia choosing to go it alone?

Can I ask you to put your cards on the table? Because I was reading the comments under the heading “Are The Russians Coming?“ on ZeroHedge ( you know the website so many love to disparage) and there was a post from a person named and spelt exactly the same way as yours assuring everyone that the New World Order will save everybody. Is this everything that you wish for? And what gives anyone or any group the right to impose this type of paradigm on everyone else to give them the opportunity to dehumanise everyone even further?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/are-russians-coming

Edited November 9, 2014 by Asiantravel

[Loptr]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Russia is also attacking without firing a shot. Russian hackers have recently infiltrated JP Morgan and other large financial institutions in the US.

It was the NYT that broke this story, with zero evidence to back it up...

[Loptr]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

Publicus please elaborate by what standards you describe the existing scenario as “existing successful international system ”. if you consider the existing system as representing success I dread to think what failure would look like? And what on earth is wrong with China and Russia choosing to go it alone?

Can I ask you to put your cards on the table? Because I was reading the comments under the heading “Are The Russians Coming?“ on ZeroHedge ( you know the website so many love to disparage) and there was a post from a person named and spelt exactly the same way as yours assuring everyone that the New World Order will save everybody. Is this everything that you wish for? And what gives anyone or any group the right to impose this type of paradigm on everyone else to give them the opportunity to dehumanise everyone even further?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/are-russians-coming

Now you've done it again, posting a link to zerohedge... Everyone knows that site is nothing but fear-monger BS...

[Publicus]

The US and Saudi Arabia deliberately attacked Russia's economy by pumping oil to drive the world price down. The mainstay of Russia's economy is its rather recent oil boom and if powerful enough, other countries can attack Russia without firing a shot.

Publicus is dead on right. China is next.

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

Publicus please elaborate by what standards you describe the existing scenario as “existing successful international system ”. if you consider the existing system as representing success I dread to think what failure would look like? And what on earth is wrong with China and Russia choosing to go it alone?

Can I ask you to put your cards on the table? Because I was reading the comments under the heading “Are The Russians Coming?“ on ZeroHedge ( you know the website so many love to disparage) and there was a post from a person named and spelt exactly the same way as yours assuring everyone that the New World Order will save everybody. Is this everything that you wish for? And what gives anyone or any group the right to impose this type of paradigm on everyone else to give them the opportunity to dehumanise everyone even further?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/are-russians-coming

It's an interesting coincidence that another poster somewhere -- anywhere -- has the identical username as I do, yet I can assure you in the absolute I do not post to ZeroHedge, nor do I read it. ZeroHedge is a crackpot website that I ignore completely and entirely.

Accordingly, neither do I reply or respond to posters who quote or cite ZeroHedge, save this clarification which I welcome the occasion to make.

The poster at ZeroHedge that you cite and I are two different persons entirely, completely, absolutely, so thanks for pointing it out so that I can be absolutely clear about it. ThaiVisa.com is the only place I have or use the Username Publicus.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Publicus

[Asiantravel]

If we play along with your fantasy for a few moments regarding the demise of these 2 large economies, then which country or entity has the genuine economic clout to step in to reorganise things? I mean, we could be looking at over one third of the world population descending into anarchy because at this stage I can't see who is left anywhere in the world with any real means or credibility to launch any kind of rescue package. Everyone is broke. Even the IMF is broke?

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

Publicus please elaborate by what standards you describe the existing scenario as “existing successful international system ”. if you consider the existing system as representing success I dread to think what failure would look like? And what on earth is wrong with China and Russia choosing to go it alone?

Can I ask you to put your cards on the table? Because I was reading the comments under the heading “Are The Russians Coming?“ on ZeroHedge ( you know the website so many love to disparage) and there was a post from a person named and spelt exactly the same way as yours assuring everyone that the New World Order will save everybody. Is this everything that you wish for? And what gives anyone or any group the right to impose this type of paradigm on everyone else to give them the opportunity to dehumanise everyone even further?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/are-russians-coming

It's an interesting coincidence that another poster somewhere -- anywhere -- has the identical username as I do, yet I can assure you in the absolute I do not post to ZeroHedge, nor do I read it. ZeroHedge is a crackpot website that I ignore completely and entirely.

Accordingly, neither do I reply or respond to posters who quote or cite ZeroHedge, save this clarification which I welcome the occasion to make.

The poster at ZeroHedge that you cite and I are two different persons entirely, completely, absolutely, so thanks for pointing it out so that I can be absolutely clear about it. ThaiVisa.com is the only place I have or use the Username Publicus.

The reason I believed it was you is that I have gleaned more than sufficient information from your posts in various threads that you are nevertheless a supporter of a totally new economic and political order?

[ozsamurai]

<script type='text/javascript'>window.mod_pagespeed_start = Number(new Date());</script>

US slur removed

Well that's half of TVF 's content gone then!

[Publicus]

Anyone arriving at Paramount sees that the existing global order and system of international law and rules have brought global peace and expanding prosperity to a billion previously dispossessed or smothered peoples. Russia and China have been invited repeatedly into the existing world order but have instead gone their separate ways, as in the Ukraine, as in the Brics, to identify just two instances.

Neither Russia nor China -- or the two combined -- are central to the 70 year old international system. China contributes mightily to the lower end of it, in manufacturing nonsense items, and Russia supplies energy, but neither are the present and historical locus of the existing successful international system. North America and Europe with Australia are its locus, to more recently include Japan. Neither Russia or China, or both, will be missed.

Russia and China are being precluded in the design to create a Mad Max collapse of the existing international system. Instead of inflicting humanity with their apocalyptic destruction of the existing international system, Russia and China are rather suddenly plunging into their own apocalypse, each presently occurring or developing within the borders of each. Brazil continues to sink deeper into recession, India remains India.

Each Russia and China are going to be awfully busy and tied down by their own domestic Mad Max chaos from the present time indefinitely forward. The global markets have priced this in. The shock is expected so it is being absorbed with minimal disorder and no global anarchy. It is fact the shock and awe now breaking in Russia and in China have been in the offing for a dozen years -- a dozen years at the least.

People such as you or I, to include Thais we know and care about, are not in any danger. I can deal with that.

Publicus please elaborate by what standards you describe the existing scenario as “existing successful international system ”. if you consider the existing system as representing success I dread to think what failure would look like? And what on earth is wrong with China and Russia choosing to go it alone?

Can I ask you to put your cards on the table? Because I was reading the comments under the heading “Are The Russians Coming?“ on ZeroHedge ( you know the website so many love to disparage) and there was a post from a person named and spelt exactly the same way as yours assuring everyone that the New World Order will save everybody. Is this everything that you wish for? And what gives anyone or any group the right to impose this type of paradigm on everyone else to give them the opportunity to dehumanise everyone even further?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-08/are-russians-coming

It's an interesting coincidence that another poster somewhere -- anywhere -- has the identical username as I do, yet I can assure you in the absolute I do not post to ZeroHedge, nor do I read it. ZeroHedge is a crackpot website that I ignore completely and entirely.

Accordingly, neither do I reply or respond to posters who quote or cite ZeroHedge, save this clarification which I welcome the occasion to make.

The poster at ZeroHedge that you cite and I are two different persons entirely, completely, absolutely, so thanks for pointing it out so that I can be absolutely clear about it. ThaiVisa.com is the only place I have or use the Username Publicus.

The reason I believed it was you is that I have gleaned more than sufficient information from your posts in various threads that you are nevertheless a supporter of a totally new economic and political order?

I have responded fully and completely to your curious inquiry and I have thanked you for it.

You need to accept my true response in respect of your inquiry and your curiosity.

Another post from you in the matter will activate the Report button.

[Lex Talionis]

It's a shame the people have to pay a high price to have such an odious dictator in charge. But, on the other hand, he is massively POPULAR there ...

popularity is a fickle thing especially when you slam people in their pocketbooks.

[NeverSure]

The title of this thread is "Russian Currency Tumbles As Investors Panic."

Russia is in a world of hurts. The West put enough pressure on the Russian economy (along with Russia's own stupid moves) to break up the Soviet Union. The communist Soviet Union simply couldn't support all of those people any longer. The USSR simply had to let those countries go.

Spin it another way if you wish, but Russia can't survive with it's 1950's economy boosted by oil sales. It has very little else to offer to bring in money. Dollars. Now with its currency crumbling it will be even harder for it to get dollars which it needs to buy things for its survival. It couldn't buy anything with its currency before this collapse, and it sure as heck can't spend it internationally now.

Not too long ago oil was around $110 a barrel and very recently, $105. Last I looked it was $77. The US is pumping all-out as is Saudi Arabia.

It used to be that when oil prices dropped, ME countries stopped pumping to bring prices back up. They had a cartel which fixed the price. They can't do that anymore because too much additional oil has been discovered elsewhere.

Get a cup of coffee, sit back, and watch Russia.

[zydeco]

The title of this thread is "Russian Currency Tumbles As Investors Panic."

Russia is in a world of hurts. The West put enough pressure on the Russian economy (along with Russia's own stupid moves) to break up the Soviet Union. The communist Soviet Union simply couldn't support all of those people any longer. The USSR simply had to let those countries go.

Spin it another way if you wish, but Russia can't survive with it's 1950's economy boosted by oil sales. It has very little else to offer to bring in money. Dollars. Now with its currency crumbling it will be even harder for it to get dollars which it needs to buy things for its survival. It couldn't buy anything with its currency before this collapse, and it sure as heck can't spend it internationally now.

Not too long ago oil was around $110 a barrel and very recently, $105. Last I looked it was $77. The US is pumping all-out as is Saudi Arabia.

It used to be that when oil prices dropped, ME countries stopped pumping to bring prices back up. They had a cartel which fixed the price. They can't do that anymore because too much additional oil has been discovered elsewhere.

Get a cup of coffee, sit back, and watch Russia.

Which brings us full circle. Russia just doesn't have anything besides its oil to offer the rest of the world. The degree of corruption in a country like Russia makes it all the more likely to be a house of cards waiting for a slight breeze to blow it into oblivion. Why Thailand would tie its future, even in part, to such an unstable mess is terrifying. The people making decisions in Bangkok always seem to be two or three steps behind world developments.

[Publicus]

The title of this thread is "Russian Currency Tumbles As Investors Panic."

Russia is in a world of hurts. The West put enough pressure on the Russian economy (along with Russia's own stupid moves) to break up the Soviet Union. The communist Soviet Union simply couldn't support all of those people any longer. The USSR simply had to let those countries go.

Spin it another way if you wish, but Russia can't survive with it's 1950's economy boosted by oil sales. It has very little else to offer to bring in money. Dollars. Now with its currency crumbling it will be even harder for it to get dollars which it needs to buy things for its survival. It couldn't buy anything with its currency before this collapse, and it sure as heck can't spend it internationally now.

Not too long ago oil was around $110 a barrel and very recently, $105. Last I looked it was $77. The US is pumping all-out as is Saudi Arabia.

It used to be that when oil prices dropped, ME countries stopped pumping to bring prices back up. They had a cartel which fixed the price. They can't do that anymore because too much additional oil has been discovered elsewhere.

Get a cup of coffee, sit back, and watch Russia.

C'mon over and we'll make it a pot. Btw wait till you see the view of China from my place. First things first however.

In 1989 the Soviet Union had a stroke and in 1991 it finally succumbed to heart failure besides.

Now its successor state is being wheeled into the ER and being given its last rites. Whether the patient currently on life support lives or dies really depends on his doctors much more than any other factor. The medicine men aren't saying anything but they do have him under close observation. They point to here and to there and they nod a lot to each other.

The rouble is an old warhorse that's been severely abused. It was given a new life when in 1998 it got devalued and, the country's hangover debt from its deceased parents was forgiven. The warhorse and its Russian rider got a new lease on life. But then they blew it.

The new guy Vlad, a KGB Soviet leftover, got visions of Tsardom and went off on his own. Vlad became notorious for hanging around with a bad crowd. There were the Brics. The Boyz in Beijing became his favorite. The Russian General Staff told Vlad that he was right, that after the Crimea came the Ukraine. Then Europe. Tsar Vlad.

They meanwhile had created a one dimensional economy and a state enforced oligarchy, took over the media then the internet, had opponents killed or imprisoned, took control of the entire population, save a few.

Now Vlad is talking about nukes.

It seems the doctors are still conferring.

Edited November 10, 2014 by Publicus

[craigt3365]

Another interesting article to read:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/10/news/economy/russian-economy-putin/index.html?iid=HP_LN

With unmarked columns of trucks coming in from the Russian border, more sanctions could be added.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29982956

"The most recent reports by the OSCE [Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe] Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine about convoys in separatist held areas with substantial amounts of heavy weapons, tanks and troops without insignia moving westwards represent a very worrying development," she said.

The White House warned that any efforts by pro-Russian rebels to seize more territory would be a "blatant violation" of the ceasefire agreement signed in Minsk in September.

"We are very concerned by intensified fighting in eastern Ukraine, as well as numerous reports... that Russian backed and supplied separatists are moving large convoys of heavy weapons and tanks to the front lines of the conflict," said US National Security Council spokeswoman Bernadette Meehan.

[Publicus]

The only thing more dangerous than a rising Russia is a falling Russia.

[MJP]

The only thing more dangerous than a rising Russia is a falling Russia.

Bit more bothersome with each passing day.

[Publicus]

Anyone who might think Putin is in charge here would need more than a cup of coffee to wake up.

China is now saying to Putin the $25 billion down payment in the $400 bn gas deal signed in May is not a down payment, that it is a loan.

Putin insists it's a down payment, however, the CCP Boyz in Beijing say it's a loan with interest attached.

Without the $25 bn Putin becomes hard pressed to start work on the project in Siberia, so with friends like the CCP Boyz who needs enemies.

The May deal was secret but now that some details of price and terms are beginning to come out it looks more and more that Putin got fleeced by the CCP Boyz. Putin was so anxious to sign a deal he may not have read even the regular sized print in it.

"If it's an advance, China will demand a discount on price, which Gazprom doesn't want to give, but if it's a loan, China will demand the purchase of Chinese products and services, which Gazprom also doesn't want to do," said Vladimir Milov, former deputy energy minister of Russia who is now an opposition-minded energy analyst. He told VICE News that the project is on the "edge of unprofitability" given the likely high costs of developing the gas fields and building the pipeline.

Now that the price of $350 per thousand cubic meters of gas has come out, analysts across the board say the project will be lucky to see much of any profit at all.

Said one analyst, Ildar Davietshin, head of oil and gas research at Renaissance Capital,

"Russia is more than ever looking at Asia for all types of deals, including financial deals," Davletshin said. "The reason they're looking for this (western route) deal is not just to sell hydrocarbons, but also to get more money out of China now when the western markets are practically shut to Russia, almost impossible to access. It looks like the first contract isn't done, so it could be premature to move on to the second one. "

https://news.vice.com/article/china-is-playing-hardball-with-russia-over-two-massive-gas-pipeline-projects

This is the kind of thing that is the norm in countries where the rule of law is wholly and completely absent.

[Asiantravel]

I would be curious to know if those who are anti-Russian on this forum and consider Putin to be the pariah as to whether they also view Mikael Gorbachev in the same way?

Gorbachev was interviewed by Stephen Sackur on BBC hard talk the day before yesterday and it was a fascinating interview.

While he obviously doesn't agree with everything Putin says or does he explained how NATO went back on their word twice since the dismantling of the Soviet Union and in his view it is the West who is stoking the fires.

He also said everyone should be allowed to live in peace, but if there can't be peace for everyone, then there will be peace for no one………………………..

[Publicus]

All of it has been hashed and rehashed to include in the post above.

Nato/EU was never going to give Moscow veto power over the ascension of individual states. The newly formed sovereign states that emerged after the collapse of the petrified Soviet Union made their own choices and decisions, the consequence being almost all of 'em are in Nato and/or the EU. Yeltsin didn't have much problem with that but the Soviet KGB leftover Putin found it all unacceptable, which is his problem.

Yesterday the Russian Central Bank floated the rubble ruble. Putin & Co wanted to float the ruble January 1st as an indicator of Russian economic and financial strength.but now they're floating it due to their very deserved desperation. Who was kidding whom...

Two things are expected from the float. One is a temporary strengthening of the rubble, which did occur (up 3%). Second, resumption of the decline of the ruble that takes Russia into an abyss, which resumption will occur shortly and continue into the new year.

The Russian CB took the only option it had. This month to date it had essentially incinerated $30 billion of reserves to prop up the rubble and this year to date $100bn of its reserves. Russia's starting point of $540bn of forex reserves was going to go to zero, perhaps before the new year, or not long into it. The float buys time, but time only to further prepare for the inevitable.

If Putin shuts off energy supplies to Europe Putin shuts off his only supply of oxygen. Putin would lose $1 billion a day through the long winter, and the EU/Nato are 98% prepared to use a combination of large energy reserves with extraordinary imports of energy to ignore Putin from tomorrow through March, and then some. Only the Baltic and nearby states remain vulnerable to a shut off because they get all their energy from Russia. In respect of the Baltic states, it's pretty much a matter of an opportunity cost to Europe as a whole.

As to what I may think of Gorbachev, he is a Marxist-Leninist has been who never was.

As to the people who support Russia, they know what they are supporting and so do we on this side know it.

[samran]

So do we buy rubles or what fellas?

[Mosha]

So do we buy rubles or what fellas?

It depends on if you thinks it's near it's bottom. A financial expert my employers used to talk to the soon to be retired employees always bought just before the low point and sold just before the peak. The trick is knowing where those points are.

[KarenBravo]

Man who tries to pick bottom ends up with smelly fingers........

[F430murci]

The roubles rout

Bold policies from Russias central bank may not stem the roubles decline

. . .

There are other reasons to sell roubles and buy dollars. Across the economy there is over $120 billion in external debt maturing in the next year according to central bank data. Roughly a third of this is owed by banks, and the remaining two-thirds by other firms. Some of these outfitsnotably Russias energy giantshave dollar revenues. A big chunk of the remainder, including the banks, do not. Since sanctions prevent many Russian companies from borrowing abroad to refinance these dollar debts, this creates sustained demand for dollars. With chunky repayments due in December, there could be another rouble rout before the end of the year (see chart).

. . .

The dependence on Western markets and currencies pains Vladimir Putin, Russias president. On November 10th he signed a deal with Xi Jinping, his Chinese counterpart, that will see Russia export gas from Siberia to China via new pipelines. The deal provides a huge new source of demand, and could see China replace Europe as Russias main export market. In addition, an agreement to start trading in yuan rather than dollars will cut demand for Americas currency.

But the pipelines will take years to be built and financing for the project has yet to be secured. In the meantime Russia may have to cope with low oil and gas prices for years. On November 12th a new set of forecasts from the Energy Information Administration, an American government agency, said that oil prices are likely to average $83 a barrel in 2015. On the optimistic assumption that the price will rise to $90 a barrel, Ms Nabiullina still forecasts zero growth and 8% inflation for 2015. Russias rouble crisis looks far from over.

http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21632634-bold-policies-russias-central-bank-may-not-stem-roubles-decline

[Publicus]

There's a long standing analogy about markets versus central banks that has a heavyweight boxer fighting a lightweight. The lightweight will land some jabs and skip around and away from his bigger opponent for a while but when the heavyweight decides the fight is over he KO's the lightweight.

Right now the Russian central bank has not only stopped scurrying around, it has thrown in the towel and it is just standing there. The heavyweight's next move will be to put the lightweight down for the count. And a quick count it will be because Russia will be out cold and prostrate.

Russian's foreign debt obligations are the heavyweight's KO punch in this particular case of Russia, the ruble, the sanctions.

The central bank has stopped buying rubles so no one is buying rubles which is the direct consequence of the currency markets crushing it. The markets have crashed the ruble because of risk and for no other reason. Putin is risking peace, prosperity, FDI, the ruble, the credit markets of Russian banks, state owned firms and privately owned ones. It is due to risk and the risk factor only.

So now there is the $57.4 billion Russian banks have to repay by the end of this year, which will eat up USDollars in Russia. Next year's debt payments will exceed $100 bn which eats up even more US dollars during a time US dollars are unavailable. The sanctions will continue into 2017 if necessary.

The ruble will not get better than its current 45 to the USD, which means Russian banks have already lost 1 Trillion rubles off their balance sheets with more to come as the ruble continues to fall with no end/bottom in sight. If there were blood on the streets people would be buying the ruble but there's no blood to see nor will there be any blood on the streets so to speak. This is a silent killer, not a loud or visible one.

The government's 2015-17 budget is predicated on oil at $100 a barrel while it presently is at $84 per.

The central bank says foreign capital outflows for 2014 will equal $128bn but ECB President Mario Draghi says the figure is presently at $214 bn and will exceed that by year's end.

The sanctions have these and other built-in escalations that turn the screws harder and only tighter. Putin and Russia are in the tank and will remain in the tank for a long time to come.

Edited November 14, 2014 by Publicus

[scubascuba3]

In Pattaya a lot of currency exchange booths are saying No Ruble