Patong is dead.

[NamKangMan]

2 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

Myanmar has over 400 islands, many of which are far more stunning that what Phuket was in its prime.

 

Let us also not forget that Phuket is actually a regenerated mining site.  The many lakes around the island are old mine sites.  The ground water table on the island, from which its denizens drink (if not directly, then indirectly), both Thai and foreigner alike, has been filtering through the residues of decades of digging for tin and lead.  The streets in Phuket are not named Dibuk and Takua for nothing.

 

 

 

I agree with you, and I have no doubt that Myanmar will develop a tourism industry, and utilize its many islands and beaches, in the future.

 

However, as of 2017, in my opinion, Myanmar lacks the tourism industry infrastructure to challenge other destinations in South East Asia.  

 

As Myanmar gains prosperity, they will develop their tourism industry, and will be another competitor for Thailand. 

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, NamKangMan said:

By not moving forward, Phuket is actually slipping backwards. 

 

Many years ago I read a seminal critique on mass toursim called "The Holiday Makers".  It was authored by Jost Krippendorf (or something like that).  The key to tourism industry prosperity is uniqueness.  And then there is the issue of product lifecycle.

 

Phuket's key sales point, in the past, was its unique and beautiful environment.  That is now destroyed, irreversibly. 

 

If you google product life cycle images you will see that late in the cycle there is a consolidation and flattening out of the sales volume curve.  At this point the product must be innovated.  If this is done successfully, then there is another rapid increase in product uptake, if not, demand for the product falls off a cliff.

 

Therein lies the rub.  Foreigners have left Phuket, and the only way that Thais innovate is to copy.  At present in Phuket there is no innovation, because smart and innovative investors/business people have left for greener pastures, and thus there is no new business models to copy.  Uniqueness...well...there is nothing unique about concrete, lightbulbs, and environmental toxicity.

 

The only remaining opportunity that I see for Phuket in terms of product innovation is casino development.   It fits well with the currently favored business model where a few get incredibly rich and the remaining workaday Thais have to endure increases in crime, drug usage, and under employment.

[NamKangMan]

10 minutes ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

Many years ago I read a seminal critique on mass toursim called "The Holiday Makers".  It was authored by Jost Krippendorf (or something like that).  The key to tourism industry prosperity is uniqueness.  And then there is the issue of product lifecycle.

 

Phuket's key sales point, in the past, was its unique and beautiful environment.  That is now destroyed, irreversibly. 

 

If you google product life cycle images you will see that late in the cycle there is a consolidation and flattening out of the sales volume curve.  At this point the product must be innovated.  If this is done successfully, then there is another rapid increase in product uptake, if not, demand for the product falls off a cliff.

 

Therein lies the rub.  Foreigners have left Phuket, and the only way that Thais innovate is to copy.  At present in Phuket there is no innovation, because smart and innovative investors/business people have left for greener pastures, and thus there is no new business models to copy.  Uniqueness...well...there is nothing unique about concrete, lightbulbs, and environmental toxicity.

 

The only remaining opportunity that I see for Phuket in terms of product innovation is casino development.   It fits well with the currently favored business model where a few get incredibly rich and the remaining workaday Thais have to endure increases in crime, drug usage, and under employment.

 

 

No argument for me.  I stated a long time ago that casinos will be coming to Phuket.

 

The thing is, for many of Phuket's issues, all they have to do is just offer the same service and prices that exist elsewhere in Thailand, nothing new, and not that innovative.  Eg. a baht bus system.  This would go a long way to increasing the enjoyment of a holiday here, but it can not / will not be done.

 

Likewise, funding NEEDS to be spent on the projects it was meant for.  Eg. water treatment plants.  Basic infrastructure needs to maintained and upgraded.  Once again, happening in other provinces, but not here.  This is hardly innovative. 

 

I suggest, what's been happening is, people have been paying top money to come to Phuket, but receiving substandard goods, services and facilities, so the Phuket "brand" is now being recognized  as a "rip off."  Hence, the rapid decline in the western tourist market here.

 

So, whilst I agree with you, I believe Phuket should first look to offer the basics, which are offered elsewhere, before they look to innovation. 

 

A simple example is, western tourists with money to spend want air conditioned taxis, not tuk-tuks.  Seriously, how can Phuket claim to be a 'world class tourist destination" without any proper taxis?  Just ridiculous. 

[xylophone]

Sure, the expats who have lived here for a number of years (me included) can and have listed a number of things which are wrong about the place so a few questions for the relative newcomers which may help them to understand the root of many of the problems here: –

 

•          Why are there so many tuk tuks here when many of them are hardly used during the day; and of course they take up valuable parking space when they shouldn’t?

 

•          Why have the developers of the likes of ACE and “Phanason on the Park” never been brought to justice when honest, and perhaps naive, Thai and foreign investors have seen their money disappear?

 

•          Why has the building on Paradise Beach been allowed to remain when to all intents and purposes, it shouldn’t be there?

 

•          Why are the drains constantly being renewed and re-laid, yet still they don’t function properly?

 

•          Why are JetSki operators allowed to remain on the beach when complaints about their scams and violence over the years have mounted and tarnished Patong’s reputation?

 

•          Why are no public transport buses operating here (like a baht bus for example)?

 

•          Why is there only one gasoline station in Patong?

 

•          Why do the majority of businesses here, especially in the entertainment field, have to pay a monthly “protection fee” in order to stay open?

 

I’m sure there are many more that could be added to this, but by now the relative newcomer should be suspecting that something is amiss, and how this particular thing has affected all aspects of life in Patong and will continue to play the major part in its downfall. 

[xylophone]

Well, just to make sure that 2016 was over because it wasn't a particularly good year for me and a few other folk I know, not to mention some disasters both politically and otherwise throughout the world, I decided to venture out to Bangla.

 

Sure it was busier early on than it has been of late, but that's only to be expected, and my usual restaurant in Soi Patong Beach resort was soon full, as were the other restaurants in that Soi (to one extent or another anyway) so the owners must have been feeling happy although I get the feeling that they realise this is going to be pretty short lived.

 

Spent some time at Smiley Bar which became absolutely full by about 10:30 p.m., even with the chairs and tables now allowed to extend onto the pavement, which in my mind makes a lot of sense, after all there is no traffic and it is a walking street at that particular time of night!

 

I managed to rattle off four old favourite songs, seemingly to the delight of the packed bar and onlookers from outside, and also managed to touch base with another Thaivisa member and his wife (and lovely folks they were too) but didn't stay long after that because the place was absolutely heaving which made it uncomfortable even to stand and have a drink. So off to Island Bar to catch up with another bar owner friend and see what life was like down his end of his Soi........fairly crowded, but nowhere near as much as in other high seasons.

 

Although there were scores of Thais peddling their cans of spray foam and plastic string, I was pleased to note that they weren't shifting as many as they had done in the old days, much to my delight, although as the night wore on and the New Year was heralded in, that did change a bit, but again it was manageable (because I absolutely hate getting sprayed in the face by some idiot who has half a brain) and I managed to dodge most of the crap.

 

I had decided I'd had enough come 1 a.m. and tried to make my way home up Bangla, which was extremely difficult because the whole of Bangla was actually a heaving almost solid mass of bodies and there was no way that you could do anything other than just join in with that heaving mass and get carried along with it, all the while tripping over empty spray cans and caps on the road, which couldn't be seen because there wasn't any room to look down at the road!

 

I did notice queues outside of the discos again with signs saying, "pay 750 baht for all you can drink", or words to that effect.

 

In summary, of course it was packed because it was New Year's Eve, and I suspect a great many of those people in Bangla had actually come to the beach to watch the fireworks and to welcome in the New Year. Also quite a few parties of Italians, Russians and smaller parties of Brits and Aussies quite dominant among the mix and my take is that give Patong another two or three weeks and many of these will have gone back and what still should be the high season, will look very depleted indeed.

[billythehat]

10 hours ago, Bucko said:

When I was in JC last July it was like a Ghost Mall --the centre of it where the boat and water feature are--were closed off because  the concrete beams below were showing signs of stress--maybe the weight of water wasn't calculated ?? --has that been fixed up now ??

 

It was the vertical columns that had failed to due buckling stresses and not the horizontal components of beams and floor slabs. The failed columns were unable to support those loads and were patched-up using a proprietary jacket system. The usage of term ‘fixed’ should be taken using the native Thai context. The report should have shown the original Engineer’s calculation sheets for the imposed loads, dead loads and subsequent RC design. Whether the Engineer had taken the weight of the water as a dead or imposed load is a moot point and to whose code he-she was applying. It’s important to note that the safety factors for each of the loading types is different and would give conflicting values in the calculations for the amount of rebar needed.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, xylophone said:

Well, just to make sure that 2016 was over because it wasn't a particularly good year for me and a few other folk I know, not to mention some disasters both politically and otherwise throughout the world, I decided to venture out to Bangla.

 

Sure it was busier early on than it has been of late, but that's only to be expected, and my usual restaurant in Soi Patong Beach resort was soon full, as were the other restaurants in that Soi (to one extent or another anyway) so the owners must have been feeling happy although I get the feeling that they realise this is going to be pretty short lived.

 

Spent some time at Smiley Bar which became absolutely full by about 10:30 p.m., even with the chairs and tables now allowed to extend onto the pavement, which in my mind makes a lot of sense, after all there is no traffic and it is a walking street at that particular time of night!

 

I managed to rattle off four old favourite songs, seemingly to the delight of the packed bar and onlookers from outside, and also managed to touch base with another Thaivisa member and his wife (and lovely folks they were too) but didn't stay long after that because the place was absolutely heaving which made it uncomfortable even to stand and have a drink. So off to Island Bar to catch up with another bar owner friend and see what life was like down his end of his Soi........fairly crowded, but nowhere near as much as in other high seasons.

 

Although there were scores of Thais peddling their cans of spray foam and plastic string, I was pleased to note that they weren't shifting as many as they had done in the old days, much to my delight, although as the night wore on and the New Year was heralded in, that did change a bit, but again it was manageable (because I absolutely hate getting sprayed in the face by some idiot who has half a brain) and I managed to dodge most of the crap.

 

I had decided I'd had enough come 1 a.m. and tried to make my way home up Bangla, which was extremely difficult because the whole of Bangla was actually a heaving almost solid mass of bodies and there was no way that you could do anything other than just join in with that heaving mass and get carried along with it, all the while tripping over empty spray cans and caps on the road, which couldn't be seen because there wasn't any room to look down at the road!

 

I did notice queues outside of the discos again with signs saying, "pay 750 baht for all you can drink", or words to that effect.

 

In summary, of course it was packed because it was New Year's Eve, and I suspect a great many of those people in Bangla had actually come to the beach to watch the fireworks and to welcome in the New Year. Also quite a few parties of Italians, Russians and smaller parties of Brits and Aussies quite dominant among the mix and my take is that give Patong another two or three weeks and many of these will have gone back and what still should be the high season, will look very depleted indeed.

One night does not a high season make.

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, billythehat said:

It was the vertical columns that had failed to due buckling stresses and not the horizontal components of beams and floor slabs. The failed columns were unable to support those loads and were patched-up using a proprietary jacket system. The usage of term ‘fixed’ should be taken using the native Thai context. The report should have shown the original Engineer’s calculation sheets for the imposed loads, dead loads and subsequent RC design. Whether the Engineer had taken the weight of the water as a dead or imposed load is a moot point and to whose code he-she was applying. It’s important to note that the safety factors for each of the loading types is different and would give conflicting values in the calculations for the amount of rebar needed.

 

The first sentence in your above post is entirely incorrect.  It should have read:

 

It was the vertical columns that had failed due to ghosts.

 

Thus your subsequent analysis regarding load types and proprietary jacket systems is irrelevant.

 

Ghosts are removed by making merit.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Bulldozer Dawn

[DrDave]

As Xylophone mentioned above, the bars on Bangla seemed to be doing a booming business on NYE. We caught the Kiwi Rocker's performance with the Thai band at Smiley, where he whipped the crowd into a frenzy!  Soi Freedom, which has been struggling, had a decent number of customers throughout its various bars, and even the ever-struggling Tao looked to be about half-full or more.

 

A little before midnight, we headed over to NY Live (which always seems to do well), and it was absolutely packed. It was standing room only, and the doorman/bouncer was escorting new arrivals to the back bar, where they then had to wait for a free table or place to stand. The Filipino band has undergone a few personnel changes, however the male singer with the afro remains and has thankfully improved greatly over the past couple of years.

Heading back to the beach road around 12:30 was like salmon swimming upstream on Bangla. There was a huge crush of people in the street all the way from  Rat-U-Thit to the beach road. Although the walking was very difficult, the one thing I noticed was that it seemed much more "civilized" as compared to last year. There were lots of vendors selling cans of silly string, and lots of spent cans in the gutter, but I really didn't see the same obnoxious behavior as last year, with drunken knobs spraying string and artificial snow directly into people's faces. 

 

We reached the beach road well before 1am, and it was choked with traffic. The road was supposedly closed from 11:30 until 1:00, but from all appearances, it looked like it either hadn't been closed, or it was opened early.  What should have been a 5-10 minute ride home easily took over a half-hour. Parking on Soi Sansabai would have been a much better choice.

 

It should be interesting to see how the last few days of "peak season" play out.

 

[Bucko]

18 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

No they are offering them online as well.  A few months back, admittedly not yet high season, my girl and me stayed in a 5 star (maybe 4 star not sure) hotel on the beach in Patong.  Lovely room, with studio style sofa area and massive bathroom.  Valet park the car (free parking) access to a nice gym and big swimming pool, and a free full western/thai fusion buffet breakfast including bacon, milk, fresh juices, brewed coffee, pastries, cut fruit...etc.  Booked via agoda website.  Total cost for room including free buffet breakfast for two: 632 Thai Baht.

 

They are losing money hand over fist at this rate  but I suspect that they endeavor to keep rooms occupied so as to not have to let staff go and then be faced with the problem of rehiring for high season.

can you post the hotel name please Bulldozer---as madmitch  says --I could just arrive and look around --but I would prefer -now I am knocking on in years to avoid that-- with Luggage and Taxi to contend with --Thanks

 

 

18 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

 

No they are offering them online as well.  A few months back, admittedly not yet high season, my girl and me stayed in a 5 star (maybe 4 star not sure) hotel on the beach in Patong.  Lovely room, with studio style sofa area and massive bathroom.  Valet park the car (free parking) access to a nice gym and big swimming pool, and a free full western/thai fusion buffet breakfast including bacon, milk, fresh juices, brewed coffee, pastries, cut fruit...etc.  Booked via agoda website.  Total cost for room including free buffet breakfast for two: 632 Thai Baht.

 

They are losing money hand over fist at this rate  but I suspect that they endeavor to keep rooms occupied so as to not have to let staff go and then be faced with the problem of rehiring for high season.

 

[billythehat]

13 hours ago, Bulldozer Dawn said:

The first sentence in your above post is entirely incorrect.  It should have read:

 

It was the vertical columns that had failed due to ghosts.

 

Thus your subsequent analysis regarding load types and proprietary jacket systems is irrelevant.

 

Ghosts are removed by making merit.

 

 

Sir, I had already taken this into account when inputting the calculations and had consulted the relevant local Thai building control standards:

 

TH0009.BC69.Do-you-know-who-my-father-is.1200999D-Part 3:2001

 

Input – Mc columns A1 to A6 < Mb

Output – Send in Scooby Doo and those pesky kids

 

Result – Columns only partially collapse so no poplem na

[NamKangMan]

On 31/12/2016 at 6:53 PM, LivinginKata said:

Yes, NKM .... I agree. I've made back my 'investments' with splendid returns over almost 20 years. I would no way even consider doing the same now, or even 8 years ago.

 

Even my Thai wife who is a glass half full sort of person has just started to see how bad business is in Phuket.

 

After 20 years, you should be fine, but have you factored into your bottom line the likelihood that you will not be able those Phuket "investments" now, or in the foreseeable future?

 

What about those who paid top dollar around 4 years ago, and previous to that, on long leases, only to see Phuket decline the way it has.  No profits, and no one to sell to, so they can get out?

Edited January 2, 2017 by NamKangMan

[xylophone]

2 hours ago, NamKangMan said:

 

After 20 years, you should be fine, but have you factored into your bottom line the likelihood that you will not be able those Phuket "investments" now, or in the foreseeable future?

 

What about those who paid top dollar around 4 years ago, and previous to that, on long leases, only to see Phuket decline the way it has.  No profits, and no one to sell to, so they can get out?

 

Yes, I think that anyone who bought/leased 10 yrs ago and wants to realise some cash now is SOL and some, and I know a few folk in this situation.

 

I know of houses that have been on the market for 8 years and haven't moved, even with some price reductions.........as an example I bought a townhouse for 4 mil baht, improved it and lived in it for 4.5 years and then sold it for 5.25 mil in 2011. Then just 2 yrs later could have bought it back for 3.75 mil!!

 

The same type of houses in the same street just haven't sold and now it looks unlikely that they ever will. Another example is a friend who wanted rid of his 1 bed 64 sq mtr apt and let it go for 1.55 mil baht because he just had no offers on it in 18 months despite lowering the price several times.

 

All this adds to Patong's woes as word gets round with examples like ACE condos and Phanason The Park adding more misery to property "investors" here........if you made money, then good on you, but rent, rent, rent has to be the mantra for these times.

[LivinginKata]

3 hours ago, NamKangMan said:

 

After 20 years, you should be fine, but have you factored into your bottom line the likelihood that you will not be able those Phuket "investments" now, or in the foreseeable future?

 

What about those who paid top dollar around 4 years ago, and previous to that, on long leases, only to see Phuket decline the way it has.  No profits, and no one to sell to, so they can get out?

 

20  years ago Phuket was booming big 'league' ... we could have sold our freeholds 10 years ago for big bucks ... but we did not ... I suppose we still 'made' those sell prices back in earnings the following 10 years ... so don't feel sorry for us left with 'valueless' property.  We still rent out for the same price as 20 years ago and do Ok ... not wonderful, just OK.

 

As for anyone paying 'top dollar' 4 years ago ... idiot, no business plan at all. Deserve financial ruin. 

 

[KarenBravo]

Was wondering, if this light railway flying pig actually takes off, will properties close to any of the stations being built (especially Chao Fah West) soar in value........as they did in Bangkok and Singapore when the MRT's were constructed?

Edited January 2, 2017 by KarenBravo

[KarenBravo]

Double post.

Edited January 2, 2017 by KarenBravo

[Bulldozer Dawn]

Just now, KarenBravo said:

Was wondering, if this light railway flying pig actually takes off, will properties close to any of the stations being built (especially Chao Fah West) soar in value........as they did in Bangkok and Singapore when the MRT's were constructed?

 

Phuket Town property prices are already more expensive than in most major cities in first world western countries.  Soar...Pftttt...

Edited January 2, 2017 by Bulldozer Dawn

[Bulldozer Dawn]

My dream for Phuket would be a skytrain running from the Northern side of Sarasin bridge all the way down the centre of the Island to Rawai.  All buses would then be barred from the Island and required to park on the mainland across the bridge so that bus passengers could then board the skytrain to head over to Phuket. 

Edited January 2, 2017 by Bulldozer Dawn

[NamKangMan]

On 03/01/2017 at 8:25 AM, Bulldozer Dawn said:

My dream for Phuket would be a skytrain running from the Northern side of Sarasin bridge all the way down the centre of the Island to Rawai.  All buses would then be barred from the Island and required to park on the mainland across the bridge so that bus passengers could then board the skytrain to head over to Phuket. 

 

 

That's quite a dream, BD.

 

Many would simply be happy if Phuket province had a similar level of infrastructure and facilities as other provinces have in Thailand.   

[CHFarang]

On 12/18/2016 at 9:13 AM, madmitch said:

Christmas is just one week away, a time when hotels and guesthouses in the past have expected full occupancy, or pretty close to it.

 

I took a look at Booking.com, a site which tells you the percentage of their rooms booked during a particular period. Before anyone states that it's just one website, please remember that it is the largest online hotel booking agent and most hotels use software which allocates rooms across all websites, including their own in-house sites, so availability is pretty standard across all of them.

 

The figures tell a story and proves that the title of this thread is absolutely correct.

 

Looking at a two night stay from 24th to 26th December, Patong has a staggeringly low figure of just 36% of available hotel rooms sold during that time! Just over one third. 

 

Other Phuket areas are as follows:

 

Kata 47%

Karon 60%

Kamala 63%

Bangtao 68%, showing that even the upmarket Laguna resorts still have Christmas availability

 

Just for interest I looked up some other areas in Thailand to find that it's not just Phuket:

 

Khao Lak 31%

Ao Nang 43%

Hua Hin 44%

Pattaya 52%

Chiang Mai 52%

Koh Samui 58%

 

Of course there will be late bookings but there will also be cancellations.  In my view these figures are much more telling than the garbage spurted out by the TAT and various other tourist authorities.

 

I would like to correct some points made here. First, the period from November - Christmas has never been a particularly high occupancy time. Rates are up compared to low season, yes, but occupancies across the board in Patong are some of the lowest of the entire year. At least for the last 5 - 6 years, High season only kicked off around Christmas. 

In fact, according to STR (one of the most reliable international hospitality data provider) rates and occupancy levels in December are up YOY 3.7%, rates by 0.8%. Plus of course the many hundreds of rooms that have been added compared to last year. 

Average occupancy on Patong from all hotels reporting to STA (90% of the medium and large hotels) is at 80%.

The availability you see on booking.com is in no way a reflection of real occupancy levels, how would they know anyway. It is probably based on the rooms hotels allocate to this particular sales channel.

 

I know may of you here on this thread are convinced that Patong is dead because a few of the old bars and restaurant who are unable and unwilling to adapt are complaining. 

The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth and great projects in infrastructure, accomodation, entertainment and shopping in the pipeline. 

Wishing you all a happy new year 2017!

[NamKangMan]

47 minutes ago, CHFarang said:

I would like to correct some points made here. First, the period from November - Christmas has never been a particularly high occupancy time. Rates are up compared to low season, yes, but occupancies across the board in Patong are some of the lowest of the entire year. At least for the last 5 - 6 years, High season only kicked off around Christmas. 

In fact, according to STR (one of the most reliable international hospitality data provider) rates and occupancy levels in December are up YOY 3.7%, rates by 0.8%. Plus of course the many hundreds of rooms that have been added compared to last year. 

Average occupancy on Patong from all hotels reporting to STA (90% of the medium and large hotels) is at 80%.

The availability you see on booking.com is in no way a reflection of real occupancy levels, how would they know anyway. It is probably based on the rooms hotels allocate to this particular sales channel.

 

I know may of you here on this thread are convinced that Patong is dead because a few of the old bars and restaurant who are unable and unwilling to adapt are complaining. 

The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth and great projects in infrastructure, accomodation, entertainment and shopping in the pipeline. 

Wishing you all a happy new year 2017!

 

 

"The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth" - I have no doubt these figures are due to the "zero baht" package holiday Chinese tourists.

 

Would you care to comment on the western market????

 

For me, a declining western tourist market, whose numbers are replaced by a "zero baht" Chinese market = many struggling businesses here, and a contracting Phuket economy. 

 

Simply put, the tourist numbers may be there, but the MONEY is not, and what's  a tourist, without money, worth to the tourism industry - ZERO - hence the term, "zero baht tourist."  Not to mention, this severely devalues the Phuket brand. 

Edited January 6, 2017 by NamKangMan

[billythehat]

20 minutes ago, CHFarang said:

I would like to correct some points made here. First, the period from November - Christmas has never been a particularly high occupancy time. Rates are up compared to low season, yes, but occupancies across the board in Patong are some of the lowest of the entire year. At least for the last 5 - 6 years, High season only kicked off around Christmas. 

In fact, according to STR (one of the most reliable international hospitality data provider) rates and occupancy levels in December are up YOY 3.7%, rates by 0.8%. Plus of course the many hundreds of rooms that have been added compared to last year. 

Average occupancy on Patong from all hotels reporting to STA (90% of the medium and large hotels) is at 80%.

The availability you see on booking.com is in no way a reflection of real occupancy levels, how would they know anyway. It is probably based on the rooms hotels allocate to this particular sales channel.

 

I know may of you here on this thread are convinced that Patong is dead because a few of the old bars and restaurant who are unable and unwilling to adapt are complaining. 

The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth and great projects in infrastructure, accomodation, entertainment and shopping in the pipeline. 

Wishing you all a happy new year 2017!

 

"great projects in infrastructure"

 

great sense of humour there, guv...

[steelepulse]

4 minutes ago, billythehat said:

 

"great projects in infrastructure"

 

great sense of humour there, guv...

 

Well if you consider a free dodge the potholes game guaranteed on every trip on the road, and the free flowing streams of questionable content onto beaches, then yes, infrastructure projects are world class.

[xylophone]

23 minutes ago, CHFarang said:

I would like to correct some points made here. First, the period from November - Christmas has never been a particularly high occupancy time. Rates are up compared to low season, yes, but occupancies across the board in Patong are some of the lowest of the entire year. At least for the last 5 - 6 years, High season only kicked off around Christmas. 

In fact, according to STR (one of the most reliable international hospitality data provider) rates and occupancy levels in December are up YOY 3.7%, rates by 0.8%. Plus of course the many hundreds of rooms that have been added compared to last year. 

Average occupancy on Patong from all hotels reporting to STA (90% of the medium and large hotels) is at 80%.

The availability you see on booking.com is in no way a reflection of real occupancy levels, how would they know anyway. It is probably based on the rooms hotels allocate to this particular sales channel.

 

I know may of you here on this thread are convinced that Patong is dead because a few of the old bars and restaurant who are unable and unwilling to adapt are complaining. 

The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth and great projects in infrastructure, accomodation, entertainment and shopping in the pipeline. 

Wishing you all a happy new year 2017!

 

I agree with your point about the start of the high season, because I've always thought that it really didn't get underway until mid December, however that's about all I can agree with and I base this on friends I have in the bar, nightclub, restaurant small hotel and massage parlour businesses, because they all say that spend is down, in some cases 40% down on last year, which in itself didn't seem to be a fantastic year anyway.

 

True there may be more bodies in the place, but if they not spending the money then they are of no use whatsoever.

 

And as for believing the stats which are put together by various tourist associations and even some of the more salubrious hotels, well I always take those with a pinch of salt. Three weeks ago a friend arrived here and decided that he wanted to stay near the beach so he visited the hotels along the Beach Road to try and book a room for a month or so, but was told at every reception desk that they were full.

 

He couldn't believe this because friends here that own businesses said that could not possibly be the case, so they advised him to get onto the Internet and sure enough all of the hotels he had visited had rooms available at rates of up to 40% discount..........explain that? It has been suggested that these hotels had allocated these rooms to various "agencies" and they could only be booked through that avenue, however that would seem to be financial ineptitude, surely?

 

And your quote about infrastructure, as noted by "billythehat", has to be an April 1 joke come early!

[billythehat]

17 minutes ago, steelepulse said:

 

Well if you consider a free dodge the potholes game guaranteed on every trip on the road, and the free flowing streams of questionable content onto beaches, then yes, infrastructure projects are world class.

I agree and furthermore I reckon the software gaming industry has missed a great opportunity here to develop a game variant of that best-selling game “Great Theft Auto”…say, “YOO PAY YOO PAY!”  …bonus points awarded for a waking flight off the island and the shirt still on your back. I’m not a player of such but I could sit through a few games of this.

[billythehat]

31 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

I agree with your point about the start of the high season, because I've always thought that it really didn't get underway until mid December, however that's about all I can agree with and I base this on friends I have in the bar, nightclub, restaurant small hotel and massage parlour businesses, because they all say that spend is down, in some cases 40% down on last year, which in itself didn't seem to be a fantastic year anyway.

 

True there may be more bodies in the place, but if they not spending the money then they are of no use whatsoever.

 

And as for believing the stats which are put together by various tourist associations and even some of the more salubrious hotels, well I always take those with a pinch of salt. Three weeks ago a friend arrived here and decided that he wanted to stay near the beach so he visited the hotels along the Beach Road to try and book a room for a month or so, but was told at every reception desk that they were full.

 

He couldn't believe this because friends here that own businesses said that could not possibly be the case, so they advised him to get onto the Internet and sure enough all of the hotels he had visited had rooms available at rates of up to 40% discount..........explain that? It has been suggested that these hotels had allocated these rooms to various "agencies" and they could only be booked through that avenue, however that would seem to be financial ineptitude, surely?

 

And your quote about infrastructure, as noted by "billythehat", has to be an April 1 joke come early!

 

"financial ineptitude"

A “cashier” friend of mine refers to this as the ‘Thai Business Model’ or to use an English parlance ‘Belly Up’.

[schlog]

Only have to walk with open eyes through Patong when there is no cruise ship at anchor. Patong is like a abandoned town. Only 5 years ago we had more tourists in August then now in January 2017.

When the last cruiser will left in February they can close all shops and throw the keys away.

 

[DrDave]

3 hours ago, CHFarang said:

<snip>

In fact, according to STR (one of the most reliable international hospitality data provider) rates and occupancy levels in December are up YOY 3.7%, rates by 0.8%. Plus of course the many hundreds of rooms that have been added compared to last year. 

Average occupancy on Patong from all hotels reporting to STA (90% of the medium and large hotels) is at 80%.

The availability you see on booking.com is in no way a reflection of real occupancy levels, how would they know anyway. It is probably based on the rooms hotels allocate to this particular sales channel.

<snip>

What about all of the smaller hotels and guesthouses? Do they report their occupancy rates, or are we just talking about the major hotels and resorts?

What about all of the smaller properties that have closed during 2016? These closures have most certainly had a positive effect on occupancy rates since their rooms have been removed from the room pool. Take a ride down Sai Kor or Nanai, and you'll see one failed hotel/guesthouse after another. I don't think they closed down due to being profitable.

[madmitch]

The reason I quoted from Booking.com is the fact that provide these availability figures and the fact that they are the largest online agent.

 

Many outside the industry don't know how these sites really work and therefore believe that providing figures from one site is inaccurate. Well, just about all large hotels, most medium-sized hotels and several budget places use channel manager software which controls the availability across all the sites they use as well as their own websites, therefore the figure provided by the largest operator will be pretty accurate. Walk-in trade is minimal these days.

 

I agree that real high season kicks in these days just before Christmas, and that's the case all over Phuket, and that's why I previously used the availability option over Christmas itself.

 

So, if you believe that now would give a more accurate figure, then I offer the following reserved percentages, again from Booking.com, based on two nights from tomorrow:

 

Patong 44%

Kata 54%

Karon 65%

Kamala 72%

Bangtao 76%

 

Still not very good for high season, especially for Patong!

[xylophone]

5 hours ago, CHFarang said:

The fact however is that Patong and Phuket in general are alive and well with steady YOY growth and great projects in infrastructure, accomodation, entertainment and shopping in the pipeline. 

 

Hold on a minute, I've just been thinking about this post and in particular that which I have quoted above, and it makes me think that the post is a "wind up" or the poster is a shill for the property or tourism industry!

 

And the reason I say that is because no one with half a brain who has lived here for a while would state anything like the above..............

 

The infrastructure is absolutely stuffed and there is no hope for it at the moment, so the sweet scent of sewerage assaults the nostrils during the hot days and washes over the feet on the wet days; the infrastructure is so far advanced that on one new main road in Patong there sit two diesel powered pumps which actively take water from either side of the road and pump it onto the road, thereby ensuring that roads further down towards the beach are well and truly flooded.

 

And of course this water and sewerage eventually finds its way into the sea courtesy of various channels, which shouldn't be there.

 

The peace and quiet of the days and evenings are often punctuated by loud bangs as overloaded transformers, pole fuses and the like, explode, and in the process ensure that blackouts prevail for anything up to a few hours, and in some cases damage appliances and electronic gear.

 

The potholes in many of the roads have become so large that the occasional Ethiopian refugee has set up home in them...........and I could go on and on.

 

As for the shopping experience well it has certainly been an experience here because in the old days there was Ocean Plaza in Bangla which folded due to lack of business when Jungceylon opened, then there was the shopping and dining experience alongside new Tiger which has closed and is now being demolished because it failed, and then of course there is the Bangla shopping mall which set up business halfway down Bangla and has since closed due to – – yes, lack of business.

 

So one would think that Jungceylon would be absolutely booming, but it isn't and I have it on good authority from a few senior managers in various establishments in the place that they are struggling big time. Now if someone thinks that building another shopping complex in Patong is going to improve the place, well they should think again because the place cannot handle another shopping centre and anyway the cheap tourists flocking here at the moment really don't spend in any upmarket shops, nor in any great amounts.

 

Ah of course I forgot about the entertainment which is supposed to be "in the pipeline", so perhaps that can take its place alongside of the almost empty cinemas here, not to mention a few other attractions which have folded over the years.

 

So as you can see, I really don't think this post can be taken seriously!!!!

 

Edited January 6, 2017 by xylophone
speller