Growth forecast of Thai farm economy cut as drought hits production

[webfact]

Growth forecast of farm economy cut as drought hits production
PETCHANET PRATRUANGKRAI
THE NATION


The Office of Agriculture Economics yesterday slashed its GDP forecast for the farm sector, citing drought affecting crop production. The photo shows the low water level in the Pa Sak Jolasid Dam in Lopburi, which is currently running at only 9 per cent

BANGKOK: -- THE agriculture sector of the national economy is now expected to grow by only 1.45 per cent, compared with an earlier projection of 2.5-3 per cent, after declines in crop production as a result of drought, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives' Office of Agricultural Economics.

Lersak Rewtarkulpaiboon, secretary-general of the OAE, said the Irrigation Department had asked farmers to postpone in-season rice cultivation in the Chao Phraya River area to late July.

The OAE expects the price of 5 per cent broken white rice to rise to Bt8,500 a tonne this year. The in-season rice harvest is expected to total 25 tonnes of paddy, lower than the normal level of 27 tonnes.

The global rice stock is forecast to decrease as major rice producers such as Vietnam have slowed their rice exports, also because of drought.

Kosit Panpiemras, executive chairman of Bangkok Bank, said yesterday that Thai gross domestic product was expected to grow by 3 per cent or slightly less this year. He said exports were expected to decline because of the slowdown of the world economy. He said the government's infrastructure projects would be good for the Thai economy over the longer term but would not have much effect on GDP growth in the short term.

Meanwhile, the government's next rice auction seems to be attracting tepid interest, since traders' confidence in grain quality and market prices are both sinking.

The Foreign Trade Department yesterday invited traders to qualify for the third round of bidding this year for 1.06 million tonnes. However, only 43 rice traders responded, less than half of the second round, which managed to draw 100 traders.

The tender will be held today at the Commerce Ministry's head office in Nonthaburi.

An industry source said some rice traders that joined the past two rounds had been disappointed by low-quality stocks. "Rice traders have low confidence in the rice quality in the government's granaries because some could not get good-quality rice as guaranteed. Traders are filing complaints to the Public Warehouse Organisation and rice surveyors to solve the problem of deteriorated rice quality," the source said.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said poor quality was just one reason fewer rice traders will join the auction. The main reason is the downtrend in the rice price in the market, which has dropped gradually to about Bt11 a kilogram, close to the government's floor, which was averaging Bt9.40-Bt9.50 a kilo.

Rice traders are suspending their purchasing plans, as they see lower rice prices in the near future.

The price of rice has been falling after decreasing orders from foreign buyers, while competition is high in the world market.

The price of Vietnamese rice has slipped to only US$340-$350 a tonne, while Thai white rice is quoted at $380-$390 a tonne, he added.

Sompong Kitireanglarp, president of Ponglarb, a rice exporter, said rice traders had shown less enthusiasm for the rice release partly because of low quality of the government's inventory.

According to www.thericetrader.com, Thailand's rice exports from January 1 to June 2 have declined by 2.2 per cent year on year to 3.77 million tonnes, while India's exports rose 23.7 per cent to 3.61 million tonnes.

Vietnam also shipped 5 per cent less rice in the period - only 2.16 million tonnes.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Growth-forecast-of-farm-economy-cut-as-drought-hit-30262375.html

-- The Nation 2015-06-16

[Robby nz]

The best of the stockpiled rice has obviously been sold off and they are now getting down to the lower quality stuff.

Wont be long before prices expected will also have to be lowered to get rid of the many millions of tons that are left.

The longer it is kept the worse it will get for there is no way the quality can rise in storage.

Hanging on to the stuff and hoping for prices to rise due to less new seasons rice because of drought isn't an option either for continuing storage costs would erode a price rise even if there was one.

[djjamie]

And then of course we have the success stories of farmers that have been taught by the ex Democrat Financing minister Khun Korn about higher yields through improving water management, better seed selection, alternate pesticides or none at all, more efficient harvesting methods and soil analysis. There are 100's of farmers under Korn's "IM rice" program with 50 in Pitsanuloke alone working 500 rai. In fact they are that successful and in demand they are expanding their reach to airlines, hospitals and restaurants.

These drought stories happen every year, but nothing is ever done to address water management on a micro scale.

[mmh8]

I guess they could always search for photos of song gram festival and start fining those seen to be throwing water , parade them out in front of the country and let them all know it was their fault and not ours.

[halloween]

I guess they could always search for photos of song gram festival and start fining those seen to be throwing water , parade them out in front of the country and let them all know it was their fault and not ours.

Let us assume that on average, each person wasted 1000 litres of water during Song Kran. it was probably nowhere near that amount but I'm feeling generous. Now it takes 5000 litres of water to produce 1kg of rice, so arguably each person has cost the nation 200gm of lost rice production.

Meanwhile, there is 17 million tons of rice sitting in warehouses going rotten thanks to the economic genius of the Shinawatras. Get a little perspective will you.

[mmh8]

I'm pretty sure that much of the rice is already rotten and that which is not is of low quality, and bathes in rice weevils, cockraoches, mice and pigeon crap.

However in face saving gesture, perhaps we can be innovative and declare that rice is the new water, issue 200gm of rice to each person and have them throw that instead of rice, at the same time we can have an official wearing a big hat, declare it is water not rice so that face can be saved. everyone will be happy while throwing rice and shnouting its not rice its water.

the only flaw in the plan I can forsee is what sort of a paste can be made out of holy powder and rotting rice?

[bassman]

^^

Blaming the farmers for the drought, which is the worst in fifty years and then flaunting the yellow shirt leader as the way out based on the success of "100's farmers" is a stretch. What about the other 10 million Thais relying on agriculture? And comparing this massive real drought to every other shows ignorance on the subject.

What a simple mind.

[Srikcir]

One thing this present government has been consistent about is its accuracy to predict any economic situation.

It has been a least 50% overstated everytime. And give it a couple more weeks after a prediction and it will lower the prediction by another 50%.

Then after the end of a prediction period its mininsters will make a final prediction in hindsight and claim how successful they have been achieving that prediction.

The only thing that can save Thailand's economy for 2015 is to recreate the year into six quarters. That may seem impossible but Prayut can invoke Article 44 to make it so.

[robblok]

One thing this present government has been consistent about is its accuracy to predict any economic situation.

It has been a least 50% overstated everytime. And give it a couple more weeks after a prediction and it will lower the prediction by another 50%.

Then after the end of a prediction period its mininsters will make a final prediction in hindsight and claim how successful they have been achieving that prediction.

The only thing that can save Thailand's economy for 2015 is to recreate the year into six quarters. That may seem impossible but Prayut can invoke Article 44 to make it so.

Its still an improvement from the minister of white lies of your beloved government who stated it was ok lie to the public. I guess you forgot about that.

This is standard style same as with the previous government they did the same thing this government did.. high estimates that went down all the time. I did not like them doing it and I dont like the current government do it.

[ratcatcher]

^^

Blaming the farmers for the drought, which is the worst in fifty years and then flaunting the yellow shirt leader as the way out based on the success of "100's farmers" is a stretch. What about the other 10 million Thais relying on agriculture? And comparing this massive real drought to every other shows ignorance on the subject.

What a simple mind.

"....and then flaunting the yellow shirt leader as the way out based on the success of "100's farmers" is a stretch."

Are you suggesting that Korn Chatikavanij is a yellow shirt leader?

Korn is an extremely well educated man and has remained above the street battles and rhetoric.

Thailand's finances would have been better in his hands than in "My Little White Lies" Kittiratt Na Ranong's.

A simple mind indeed.

[JOC]

One thing this present government has been consistent about is its accuracy to predict any economic situation.

It has been a least 50% overstated everytime. And give it a couple more weeks after a prediction and it will lower the prediction by another 50%.

Then after the end of a prediction period its mininsters will make a final prediction in hindsight and claim how successful they have been achieving that prediction.

The only thing that can save Thailand's economy for 2015 is to recreate the year into six quarters. That may seem impossible but Prayut can invoke Article 44 to make it so.

Its still an improvement from the minister of white lies of your beloved government who stated it was ok lie to the public. I guess you forgot about that.

This is standard style same as with the previous government they did the same thing this government did.. high estimates that went down all the time. I did not like them doing it and I dont like the current government do it.

Another "but Thaksin" post from Robbie............ What a surprise!!

Try something new: Make suggestions on how Thailand move forward from today..............

[robblok]

One thing this present government has been consistent about is its accuracy to predict any economic situation.

It has been a least 50% overstated everytime. And give it a couple more weeks after a prediction and it will lower the prediction by another 50%.

Then after the end of a prediction period its mininsters will make a final prediction in hindsight and claim how successful they have been achieving that prediction.

The only thing that can save Thailand's economy for 2015 is to recreate the year into six quarters. That may seem impossible but Prayut can invoke Article 44 to make it so.

Its still an improvement from the minister of white lies of your beloved government who stated it was ok lie to the public. I guess you forgot about that.

This is standard style same as with the previous government they did the same thing this government did.. high estimates that went down all the time. I did not like them doing it and I dont like the current government do it.

Another "but Thaksin" post from Robbie............ What a surprise!!

Try something new: Make suggestions on how Thailand move forward from today..............

JOC..

Most people don't take you serious.. in general I don't either. Today again you proved the point. This was under YL .. not Thaksin. You really don't know much do you and you still make comments. You don't even know who the white lie minister was and what he did.

[JOC]

One thing this present government has been consistent about is its accuracy to predict any economic situation.

It has been a least 50% overstated everytime. And give it a couple more weeks after a prediction and it will lower the prediction by another 50%.

Then after the end of a prediction period its mininsters will make a final prediction in hindsight and claim how successful they have been achieving that prediction.

The only thing that can save Thailand's economy for 2015 is to recreate the year into six quarters. That may seem impossible but Prayut can invoke Article 44 to make it so.

Its still an improvement from the minister of white lies of your beloved government who stated it was ok lie to the public. I guess you forgot about that.

This is standard style same as with the previous government they did the same thing this government did.. high estimates that went down all the time. I did not like them doing it and I dont like the current government do it.

Another "but Thaksin" post from Robbie............ What a surprise!!

Try something new: Make suggestions on how Thailand move forward from today..............

JOC..

Most people don't take you serious.. in general I don't either. Today again you proved the point. This was under YL .. not Thaksin. You really don't know much do you and you still make comments. You don't even know who the white lie minister was and what he did.

School-book!!

Out of arguments, attack the poster..........

And honestly, if people take me seriously or not, I couldn't care less. To me Thaivisa is entertainment and nothing else!!

[robblok]

Its still an improvement from the minister of white lies of your beloved government who stated it was ok lie to the public. I guess you forgot about that.

This is standard style same as with the previous government they did the same thing this government did.. high estimates that went down all the time. I did not like them doing it and I dont like the current government do it.

Another "but Thaksin" post from Robbie............ What a surprise!!

Try something new: Make suggestions on how Thailand move forward from today..............

JOC..

Most people don't take you serious.. in general I don't either. Today again you proved the point. This was under YL .. not Thaksin. You really don't know much do you and you still make comments. You don't even know who the white lie minister was and what he did.

School-book!!

Out of arguments, attack the poster..........

And honestly, if people take me seriously or not, I couldn't care less. To me Thaivisa is entertainment and nothing else!!

Actually I gave the arguments why i attacked you.. because you did not even knew what you were posting about.

No arguments to attack just your lack of knowledge.