British pound just jumped in value, what happened?

[MaeJoMTB]

British pound just now @53.5bht or E1.43 (in 2009, when I moved here it was 52bht and E1).

At the start of the week it was 52.5 and 1.4

That's a 2% rise in a couple of days ...... did something happen?

Edited July 16, 2015 by MaeJoMTB

[rijit]

No but i reckon some on here.will be able to explain whats happened.

rijit

[Lite Beer]

Bank of England suggested that interest rates would be rising soon.

Moved to business forum.

[mommysboy]

Bank of England suggested that interest rates would be rising soon.

Moved to business forum.

Baht is beginning to soften, and I would expect that trend to continue over the next couple of years. Yes, expectation of interest rate rises in UK sooner than forecast, and good set of employment figures, and real wage increases.

[Cypress Hill]

Amazing how many people buy into the rhetoric about raising interest rates.

Rates ain't going meaningfully higher.

These central bankers are just trying to give themselves room to bring rates down again when the shit hits the fan next time but they can't do it without crashing their economic "recoveries" . . . so they won't.

They'll just print more money.

This time next year, QE4 will be in full flow both in the US and the UK

[Nice Boyd]

Dollar Climbing Also

[nickmanchester2]

i though it would have jumped higher - only like .2 more

[Expattaff1308]

British pound just now @53.5bht or E1.43 (in 2009, when I moved here it was 52bht and E1).

At the start of the week it was 52.5 and 1.4

That's a 2% rise in a couple of days ...... did something happen?

I moved here in 2008 and was getting 68, remember how we all cried when it went below 60 and now how happy we are when it rises above 50

Edited July 16, 2015 by Expattaff1308

[magnacarta]

British pound just now @53.5bht or E1.43 (in 2009, when I moved here it was 52bht and E1).

At the start of the week it was 52.5 and 1.4

That's a 2% rise in a couple of days ...... did something happen?

I moved here in 2008 and was getting 68, remember how we all cried when it went below 60 and now how happy we are when it rises above 50

I was over the moon when I bought my second house here when it hit 75,since then I budget on 50,anything above is a bonus,would love to see it hit 60,but I suppose that is wishful thinking

[phrodan]

Interest rates will rise in the UK in January.

Go put a bet on it

Employment is on an upward path, near record amounts of people in the labour market. On top of that there's a million vacancies in the UK - and expect more to open soon now that corporation tax is going down to 18%.

Companies, including hedge funds, are repatriating to the UK. They can't believe their luck that the corp rate has dropped by ten percentage points in the last few years.

Carney has always said that the employment factor is a major consideration in rate rises.

One of the other considerations is the housing market, which is now soaring above 2008 levels in many parts of the South East - driven by hot money flowing in from overseas investors, and a mortgage price war.

The UK is in line to be the largest economy in Europe by 2030. A massive long term boom is unfolding - and as long as the national debt is under control, there's better than half a chance this boom will not reverse into a serious bust.

[t8769]

Yes the British economy is booming!

International money is pouring in as it is seen as a safe place to invest.

Meanwhile most other European countries continue their decline into bankruptcy and ruin.

As the economy climbs, the pound strengthens.

Good for Brits with pounds to spend

Not so easy for British manufacturers, who nevertheless are doing well.

Edited July 16, 2015 by t8769

[Pib]

Actually the GBP-THB is just back to about where it was a month ago. However the USD-THB rate continues to climb from a month ago.

[JockPieandBeans]

British pound just now @53.5bht or E1.43 (in 2009, when I moved here it was 52bht and E1).

At the start of the week it was 52.5 and 1.4

That's a 2% rise in a couple of days ...... did something happen

Who cares.

As long as the £ and the $ continue to rise.

Ching Ching

[Berkshire]

Amazing how many people buy into the rhetoric about raising interest rates.

Rates ain't going meaningfully higher.

These central bankers are just trying to give themselves room to bring rates down again when the shit hits the fan next time but they can't do it without crashing their economic "recoveries" . . . so they won't.

They'll just print more money.

This time next year, QE4 will be in full flow both in the US and the UK

It doesn't matter if rates go meaningfully higher or not, just that it goes up. And it will impact the financial markets. And the housing market. And the stock market. And the currency exchange market. If the US fed raises rates, the USD will go up. Guaranteed.

[Cypress Hill]

The Fed's trying to sound hawkish but unemployment's at 5.5% - what are they waiting for?

For now, people have bought into the narrative that the Fed is the only central bank considering raising rates when the ECB and the BoJ are still printing like mad.

As the weak economic data continues to flow (dreadful retail sales, lackluster durable goods, flat factory output etc) that narrative will change really quickly.

It's a head fake and even if they raise by 25 basis points, it'll only be to preserve their credibility.

Can you really see US/UK rates heading back to historical averages (4 - 5% in the US and 7 - 8% in the UK) or do you think the central banks are trapped into keeping rates low to stop households and businesses collapsing under their debt burdens?

[NeverSure]

Amazing how many people buy into the rhetoric about raising interest rates.

Rates ain't going meaningfully higher.

These central bankers are just trying to give themselves room to bring rates down again when the shit hits the fan next time but they can't do it without crashing their economic "recoveries" . . . so they won't.

They'll just print more money.

This time next year, QE4 will be in full flow both in the US and the UK

^^^ "They'll just print more money" LOL.

That's not at all how QE works in the US, but it is in the UK even if "print money" is a euphemism for creating more money on the books.

The US Fed issues debt instruments in the form of treasuries when more money is needed to pay bills. It sells bonds. When it wants to "increase the money supply" it does that by increasing the percentage of depositors' money that banks can lend. It stimulates that by influencing interest rates downward by what it charges and will pay banks for their reserve needs at its Overnight Window. Increasing the money supply doesn't mean creating more actual money but rather increasing the amount that is available to the general economy. It can later pull that back by increasing interest rates and increasing the reserve requirements of banks to discourage lending.

1. The US Fed is prohibited by law from buying its own treasuries but must sell them in the open market to willing buyers. This stops the Fed from just "printing money". I keep my money in USD.

2. The UK and the Eurozone have no such restrictions and are indeed creating new bonds and buying them for themselves using "money" created out of thin air, on paper. This is what you want to be worried about, especially since the UK's debt is ballooning fast and is about the same as that of the US as a percentage of GDP. There is no end in sight.

3. The Eurozone did the same to buy its bonds back from private parties and now the governments hold this debt including the money loaned to Greece on their books as phony baloney.

Cheers

"The I.M.F. Is Telling Europe the Euro Doesn’t Work."

JULY 14, 2015

New York Times

[PattayaPhom]

Amazing how many people buy into the rhetoric about raising interest rates.

Rates ain't going meaningfully higher.

These central bankers are just trying to give themselves room to bring rates down again when the shit hits the fan next time but they can't do it without crashing their economic "recoveries" . . . so they won't.

They'll just print more money.

This time next year, QE4 will be in full flow both in the US and the UK

When ₤500,000 2 bed houses are selling immediately they are on the market with offers over he asking price and values still increasing, something has to give Cheap money cant last forever. Whats the current rate of sales to buy to letters these days..27%...absolute madness. My nephew has just had to pay almost ₤300,000 for his first house which in all events is a shoebox, debt ridden for the rest of his life. Its wrong and will stop but of course there is a generation that know nothing else except 0.5% and cant see through the woods. In the event of another crisis the banks are restricted to what they can do. Don't forget Sterling was at 55 last year for a while so there may be further gains over the coming months especially with the Euro approaching a parity with $

[fish fingers]

Carney said Interest rates will rise before the year's out and also during next year so there will be a substantial increase compared to the current rate. It will hit mortgages quite alot.

This and the Greek deal have pushed sterling up in the last 36hrs.

Gold is dropping alot too, I imagine it will keep dropping. I feel sorry for my wife who bought 2 yrs ago, she won't sell but I think she shd cut her losses

Edited July 17, 2015 by fish fingers

[SantiSuk]

UK interest rates will not rise until after the Fed raises US interest rates. Going first would be wonderful for holders of GBP, but terrible for British exporters and therefore the British economy (which relies far more heavily on exports for GDP growth than does the US economy).

Anyone who thinks they can predict timing of rate rises is purely shooting the breeze. 53 is not a bad rate in recent history - may be bettered later but maybe not. I shall probably bring a year or so's forward expenditure from GBP into baht at this rate (ie transfer cash from the UK into baht savings - get better gross rates of interest here anyway and nil tax after claiming Thai tax refund, whereas it's at the 20% standard deduction in the UK. May finally go offshore for some savings. Nationwide International showing 1.45% gross on one-year money - that would be nil taxed if UK non-resident).

[PattayaPhom]

UK interest rates will not rise until after the Fed raises US interest rates. Going first would be wonderful for holders of GBP, but terrible for British exporters and therefore the British economy (which relies far more heavily on exports for GDP growth than does the US economy).

Anyone who thinks they can predict timing of rate rises is purely shooting the breeze. 53 is not a bad rate in recent history - may be bettered later but maybe not. I shall probably bring a year or so's forward expenditure from GBP into baht at this rate (ie transfer cash from the UK into baht savings - get better gross rates of interest here anyway and nil tax after claiming Thai tax refund, whereas it's at the 20% standard deduction in the UK. May finally go offshore for some savings. Nationwide International showing 1.45% gross on one-year money - that would be nil taxed if UK non-resident).

"UK interest rates will not rise until after the Fed raises US interest rates"

"Anyone who thinks they can predict timing of rate rises is purely shooting the breeze"

Suppose that's shooting the breeze then.

[chrisinth]

British pound just now @53.5bht or E1.43 (in 2009, when I moved here it was 52bht and E1).

At the start of the week it was 52.5 and 1.4

That's a 2% rise in a couple of days ...... did something happen?

I moved here in 2008 and was getting 68, remember how we all cried when it went below 60 and now how happy we are when it rises above 50

In 1997 we were getting 90 baht to the pound.................... (I think it peaked at either 92 or 94 for a short period)

Considering that for about 10 years before that, the exchange rate was between 38-42 baht to the pound, it was like an extended Christmas period.

[dageurreotype]

UK interest rates will not rise until after the Fed raises US interest rates. Going first would be wonderful for holders of GBP, but terrible for British exporters and therefore the British economy (which relies far more heavily on exports for GDP growth than does the US economy).

Anyone who thinks they can predict timing of rate rises is purely shooting the breeze. 53 is not a bad rate in recent history - may be bettered later but maybe not. I shall probably bring a year or so's forward expenditure from GBP into baht at this rate (ie transfer cash from the UK into baht savings - get better gross rates of interest here anyway and nil tax after claiming Thai tax refund, whereas it's at the 20% standard deduction in the UK. May finally go offshore for some savings. Nationwide International showing 1.45% gross on one-year money - that would be nil taxed if UK non-resident).

The UK actually export something? Like, they manufacture things again? I was under the impression they were just a holding bay for obscenely wealthy overseas tax migrants, who, in turn, are responsible for the British in general and Londoners in particular, not being able to afford a house there.

[Brit_Doggie]

last few months seen it rise and fall but looking at the long term my estimation is and i no expert but continued increases will occur when it does that's time for me to hide my atm card so good news for me and not so good for her.

[Cypress Hill]

Amazing how many people buy into the rhetoric about raising interest rates.

Rates ain't going meaningfully higher.

These central bankers are just trying to give themselves room to bring rates down again when the shit hits the fan next time but they can't do it without crashing their economic "recoveries" . . . so they won't.

They'll just print more money.

This time next year, QE4 will be in full flow both in the US and the UK

^^^ "They'll just print more money" LOL.

That's not at all how QE works in the US, but it is in the UK even if "print money" is a euphemism for creating more money on the books.

I know exactly what quantitative easing is and how it works so save your patronising tone for someone who deserves it.

"Printing money" is a colloquialism

Carney said Interest rates will rise before the year's out and also during next year so there will be a substantial increase compared to the current rate. It will hit mortgages quite alot.

This and the Greek deal have pushed sterling up in the last 36hrs.

Gold is dropping alot too, I imagine it will keep dropping. I feel sorry for my wife who bought 2 yrs ago, she won't sell but I think she shd cut her losses

If you choose to put your faith in and stake your future financial well-being on the word of a central banker, go for it but I suspect your wife is a damned sight better positioned right now than you are

Perhaps you believed Ben Bernanke when he said sub prime was "contained"

[Pib]

There is an article in the 18 Jul 15 Bangkok Post titled, "Weaker Baht to Spur Economy More Than Rate Cuts."

It's basically a Reuters news service interview with Deputy Prime Minister Pridiyathorn Devakula at Government House on July 17, 2015. Basically, the deputy prime minister feels weakening the baht will help more with the economy, especially for exports, than rate cuts. The DPM also said he would like to see the baht depreciate a little more. This guy was appointed by the junta as a member of its advisory board in charge of economic issues so he has the ear of the current govt.

Been a lot of talk by Thai high-rollers in govt and business over the past several months recommending a lower baht....maybe the govt and BOT are slowly succumbing to those calls.