Is Thailand in trouble?

[ozyjon]

Here in Europe the news programs in various languages

are reporting on the Erawan bombing and i caught the

last half of an interview where the person being

interviewed replied ''yes i would go there for a holiday

(Bangkok) i wouldn't hesitate to take my family there ''

from that statement i think there is a problem.

[konying]

Thailand has lots of troubles, though if talking about in terms of chances of financial collapse, I think it is one of the better countries. While the next depression will hurt Thailand, other countries (particularly in the West) will be falling off a cliff.

What makes you think Thailand would not?

No different to playing poker.

Everyone falls sooner or later . Some like to bluff but sometimes have to have good hand to back your bluff when you called out.

Thailand does not have good hand and sadly should some one special pass away due to very old age, this would add fuel to the fire at magnitude which has not been seen for at least 100 years

[Utley]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

Very simplistic view of Thailand,....Woman, low cost of living and weather ?????, you obviously never went out of Pattaya did you....?

I spent a week in Pattaya about ten years ago; I enjoyed myself immensely but have never been back. My wife and I live in the hinterlands of central Thailand.

Thailand's women, food, low cost of living and it's weather are the four main reasons why I live here fulltime. But in regards to the world scene, though a very pleasant place to live, Thailand is nothing more significant than a pimple on an elephant's butt.

[ggt]

Thailand's troubles are magnified by political unrest, corruption, and lack of a cohesive direction...which pales in comparison to many other countries of the world...

The world is in trouble...has been for awhile...economies being held together my printing gobs of currency to pay off debt...unmanageable national debt is the elephant in the room...

Economies are not expanding...they are contracting...commodities are losing their luster...take oil for instance...lost over 50% is past few months...lack of demand and excess resources...

Stay tuned for more stock market selling with few buyers...causing investors to lose trillions of dollars collectively...

Watch as more countries announce they are unable to pay their debt...as Greece has done...

Take out insurance while you can...place some of your hard earned wealth in PMs...Gold and Silver...

The internet is full of helpful information...subject has been addressed on this forum previously...

Keep a small amount of "emergency cash" on hand and have a small supply of food, water, and essentials in case the poop hits the fan...

No...I am not a promoter of doom and gloom...I am a realist...and the reality is the whole world is in trouble...preparing to take care of yourself and family is the prudent thing to do...

[konying]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

Very simplistic view of Thailand,....Woman, low cost of living and weather ?????, you obviously never went out of Pattaya did you....?

Why? Out of Pattaya have something different?

Have you been to Thailand yet?

[MZurf]

If Thailand's only problem was slow economic growth, it would be in no different situation than many developing nations given the current global economic slowdown.

But it has a number of unique issues that magnifies its economic troubles such as the following:

- political volitality likely into 2016

- undemocratic regime likely through 2016

- UN human rights violations

- potential ban of food products by USA and EU

- international civil aviation violations

- muslim insurgency in the South

- high household debt

- deflation

- increased foreign relations with anti-democratic regimes

So in terms of an economic recovery, yes Thailand is in immediate trouble.

To me, The undemocratic regime is less of a problem than the ex democratic one.....

Regards.

Tell that to the people who have no vote anymore.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selfishness

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

Very simplistic view of Thailand,....Woman, low cost of living and weather ?????, you obviously never went out of Pattaya did you....?

You mean there are no women, low living cost and good weather outside of Pattaya??

I knew I had chosen the right place to live!!!

[MaeJoMTB]

Let's think about why people rarely keep large amounts of cash at home.

Bet there's plenty of people in Cyprus and Greece that wished they had kept their cash at home.

If the Greek banks ever reopen, everyone will withdraw everything they had in the bank.

So to recap,

Best reason to keep your cash at home is if you think your countries banking system is likely to fail!

(which you totally missed)

[SoiBiker]

Let's think about why people rarely keep large amounts of cash at home.

Bet there's plenty of people in Cyprus and Greece that wished they had kept their cash at home.

If the Greek banks ever reopen, everyone will withdraw everything they had in the bank.

So to recap,

Best reason to keep your cash at home is if you think your countries banking system is likely to fail!

(which you totally missed)

The Greek banks reopened a month ago.

[GOLDBUGGY]

Thailand has experience the worst drought in 30 years with still record low export prices for Rice, Sugar Cain, and Rubber, and at a time when the Thai Farmer is already deeply in debt. Tourism has been low and although there was signs of recovery, the Bombing in Bangkok may hamper this further. The Fishing Industry also seems to be in Dire Straights. Industrial Output is also low due to a lack of world wide demand. The Thai Baht may also be overpriced making Exports more expensive. A reduction in the Baht makes Imports more expensive.

All this adds up to a Perfect Storm.

Yes, Thailand is in trouble. But probably not much more than many others in S.E, Asia

[Naam]

I get blasted every time I refer to Thailand as a "third-world country". Seems obvious to me.

If you mean is Thailand a 3rd world country going down hill the answer is obviously yes.

I think it has something to do with how long you have been here. When you first arrive everything is wonderful and new (like a new relationship) but after a while the blemishes begin to show. IMHO - Thailand has four major assets: it's women, it's food, it's low cost of living and it's weather - which are nothing to sneeze about. But as far as playing on the world stage with the grownups - it just isn't there! No one other than Thailand really cares what is going on in Thailand. And that's the truth!

for some of us, whether working expat or retiree, these "assets" are, depending on individual perspective, more or less irrelevant.

sh*tty hot tropical weather can be found in many areas of this planet. the same applies low cost of living, tasty women and tasty food.

what can't be found easily is a combination of the above-mentioned "assets" (if so desired) and the non-existence of income and capital gains tax on money generated offshore. all in my [not so] humble opinion.

[MrY]

The Greek banks reopened a month ago.

...but withdrawal limits remain, preventing a run on the banks. How much would you deposit if you knew you can only withdraw 60 Euros a day..?

[billd766]

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

Well the last "elected" PTP reshuffled its cabinet on average twice a year and each time the PM told the people that the new ministers had been carefully selected from the best people available.

[Asheron]

Here in Europe the news programs in various languages

are reporting on the Erawan bombing and i caught the

last half of an interview where the person being

interviewed replied ''yes i would go there for a holiday

(Bangkok) i wouldn't hesitate to take my family there ''

from that statement i think there is a problem.

Why is that a problem?

[MaeJoMTB]

The Greek banks reopened a month ago.

...but withdrawal limits remain, preventing a run on the banks. How much would you deposit if you knew you can only withdraw 60 Euros a day..?

..... and the atms are always empty.

[Stevemercer]

Thailand is doing just fine, but next year will be tough for the agricultural sector if it doesn't rain in September. Average rainfall this wet season is just half the average and many dams are still near empty. Costs to urban water users will double next year as everyone will be forced to share the 'pain'.

Tourism will suffer a blip, but will recover to another record year by December 2015.

The Baht will stay relatively high as China keeps buying up the currency to keep its fast rail, and other projects, competitive with the Japanese and others.

Oil prices will continue to drop giving the government some slack to rationalise fuel costs and other subsidies.

Manufacturing will remain relatively stable, particularly as the minimum wage is removed. But there could be political instability as wages drop in rural provinces and agriculture slows. The government will be looking at more populist measures which will increase the relative debt burden.

Thailand will continue to cruise over the next five years. The five to ten year outlook is not so positive as national debt increases, the population continues to age and the number of public servants increases. The government at that time will need to look at drastic measures to support older people (as smaller families will be less able to support the older generation and demands on hospital/aged care will increase dramatically) and to cut the public workforce and public pensions.

I'm sure the government is well aware of these structural problems and is well advanced in planning to avoid future monetary shocks...

[konying]

Thailand is doing just fine, but next year will be tough for the agricultural sector if it doesn't rain in September. Average rainfall this wet season is just half the average and many dams are still near empty. Costs to urban water users will double next year as everyone will be forced to share the 'pain'.

Tourism will suffer a blip, but will recover to another record year by December 2015.

The Baht will stay relatively high as China keeps buying up the currency to keep its fast rail, and other projects, competitive with the Japanese and others.

Oil prices will continue to drop giving the government some slack to rationalise fuel costs and other subsidies.

Manufacturing will remain relatively stable, particularly as the minimum wage is removed. But there could be political instability as wages drop in rural provinces and agriculture slows. The government will be looking at more populist measures which will increase the relative debt burden.

Thailand will continue to cruise over the next five years. The five to ten year outlook is not so positive as national debt increases, the population continues to age and the number of public servants increases. The government at that time will need to look at drastic measures to support older people (as smaller families will be less able to support the older generation and demands on hospital/aged care will increase dramatically) and to cut the public workforce and public pensions.

I'm sure the government is well aware of these structural problems and is well advanced in planning to avoid future monetary shocks...

[Johpa]

I see that the children are playing with the computers again while their mum's are out,if you have nothing to say. Say

nothing

Alas, children seem to be in charge everywhere from North Korea to Russia to of course Southeast Asia. Not to mention that adult discussion of the root of Thailand's troubles is verboten here. When one asks a question while riding the merry-go-round on the playground one should anticipate less than informed responses.

[konying]

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

Well the last "elected" PTP reshuffled its cabinet on average twice a year and each time the PM told the people that the new ministers had been carefully selected from the best people available.

I could be wrong, but i do not believe its true , i do not recall having full cabinet reshuffles twice a year

[Anthony5]

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

Well the last "elected" PTP reshuffled its cabinet on average twice a year and each time the PM told the people that the new ministers had been carefully selected from the best people available.

I could be wrong, but i do not believe its true , i do not recall having full cabinet reshuffles twice a year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_cabinet

[konying]

Thailand is in trouble , but Thai government likes to take Thai way of dealing with it, which is if you ignore it, it might go away.

I do not think its going away and i think it is catching up, Thai economy has been rather immune for the past decade, one can only bluff for so long before being called out.

If Thailand was not in trouble, current government would not have reshuffled the entire cabinet.

Well the last "elected" PTP reshuffled its cabinet on average twice a year and each time the PM told the people that the new ministers had been carefully selected from the best people available.

I could be wrong, but i do not believe its true , i do not recall having full cabinet reshuffles twice a year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_cabinet

so 4 in 3 years, this government so far is 1 in 1 year.

[Anthony5]

Well the last "elected" PTP reshuffled its cabinet on average twice a year and each time the PM told the people that the new ministers had been carefully selected from the best people available.

I could be wrong, but i do not believe its true , i do not recall having full cabinet reshuffles twice a year

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yingluck_cabinet

so 4 in 3 years, this government so far is 1 in 1 year.

Yingluck beat that hands down with 1 in 5 months.

She was elected 5 August 2011 and her first reshuffle was 18 January 2012.

[thaicatbuyer]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

Hello not sure what bank you go to.......Been into the bank and withdrawn 6 million baht many times,(more than 10 times not always same branch and not main branch) never once did they not have the cash, thats like 200k USD, in US had a very hard time getting 60k cash, had to go to 6 branches to get it,(finally somebody called the other 20 branches till they found one that had the funds) and finally got it from a very small branch 30 miles out, 1 time in 10 years the bank was short on 2 million and had to wait 1 hr for it to be brought to me, not me chasing it down......been to ATMs took out Millions on the weekends, no problem 6 ATM cards 500K baht limits each ATMs carry more than 2-3 million full......Bangkok Bank rules......555

Edited August 23, 2015 by thaicatbuyer

[lannarebirth]

When the baht strengthens again, which it will do at some point in time, I wonder how many of the posters who see Thailand as an inevitably failed state, will be starting threads about how to generate Thai based income or mitigate their need to transfer large amounts of fx to maintain their lifestyle in Thailand.

[Naam]

Thailand is doing just fine, but next year will be tough for the agricultural sector if it doesn't rain in September. Average rainfall this wet season is just half the average and many dams are still near empty. Costs to urban water users will double next year as everyone will be forced to share the 'pain'.

Tourism will suffer a blip, but will recover to another record year by December 2015.

The Baht will stay relatively high as China keeps buying up the currency to keep its fast rail, and other projects, competitive with the Japanese and others.

Oil prices will continue to drop giving the government some slack to rationalise fuel costs and other subsidies.

Manufacturing will remain relatively stable, particularly as the minimum wage is removed. But there could be political instability as wages drop in rural provinces and agriculture slows. The government will be looking at more populist measures which will increase the relative debt burden.

Thailand will continue to cruise over the next five years. The five to ten year outlook is not so positive as national debt increases, the population continues to age and the number of public servants increases. The government at that time will need to look at drastic measures to support older people (as smaller families will be less able to support the older generation and demands on hospital/aged care will increase dramatically) and to cut the public workforce and public pensions.

I'm sure the government is well aware of these structural problems and is well advanced in planning to avoid future monetary shocks...

not to forget that in case of real trouble Thailand can always call Santa Claus or the Easter Bunny and ask for help

[elgenon]

So Cute! ...how old are you by the way?

Such a cute answer. Very informative too. Much thanks!

[jacko45k]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

If you have got it to withdraw I suppose.

Nevertheless that is an interesting point, we have all seen someone filling up a very large envelope nearby then walking off unconcerned while getting our extension letters. But is that not due to Thai society still being cash oriented?

Edited August 23, 2015 by jacko45k

[gemguy]

Thailand is always having troubles of some sort and seemingly forever while all too often they can not resolve most of their troubles.

So it is troubling ....about all the troubles that is.

Cheers

[chiang mai]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

No, what you've written is untrue. I've walked into both UOB and CIMB in Thailand and withdrawn THB 1 mill. at one time and without notice, it's not an issue.

[konying]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

Hello not sure what bank you go to.......Been into the bank and withdrawn 6 million baht many times,(more than 10 times not always same branch and not main branch) never once did they not have the cash, thats like 200k USD, in US had a very hard time getting 60k cash, had to go to 6 branches to get it,(finally somebody called the other 20 branches till they found one that had the funds) and finally got it from a very small branch 30 miles out, 1 time in 10 years the bank was short on 2 million and had to wait 1 hr for it to be brought to me, not me chasing it down......been to ATMs took out Millions on the weekends, no problem 6 ATM cards 500K baht limits each ATMs carry more than 2-3 million full......Bangkok Bank rules......555

Krungsi and Kasikorn on Pattaya Tai, both very busy branches

[konying]

Go into a Thai bank and withdraw a large a amount of cash, never a problem. Now try that with a western bank and see what happens. You'll have to wait days at least for them to get their hands on it, some countries even want to know why you want your own money. So which banks are more liquid, which more likely to shut the doors if a bank run?

Untrue from start to finish.

You can not walk into a Thai bank and withdraw a large amount, unless you consider 100 000 to be large amount.

If you want to withdraw 1 million up, you must notify the bank 24 hours in advance at least, if very large sum, they will tell you how many days needed

Banks in the West work the same way, unless you talking about banks in Greece.

No, what you've written is untrue. I've walked into both UOB and CIMB in Thailand and withdrawn THB 1 mill. at one time and without notice, it's not an issue.

I never said it was an issue, and already clarified busy branches i use require notice for 1 million up. it does not mean they would not give me the money if i did not give notice. But when asking if i wanted to take out large sum, they advised to give notice to have it ready.

I am certain if you walk in to the same branch and asked if they wanted a notice for large sum, the answer would be a yes.it does not however mean they do not have the money at hand, but may not have money at hand if it was a busy day, unless you think each branch has a money printing machine.