Emergency:Thailand may be completely dry in January

[warriorbangkok]

Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?

[KhunBENQ]

Have I missed something here?

Yes

Heaviest drought in centuries.

Don't be distracted that some border provinces along the Mekong are close to be flooded by the river.

I am here for only four years (2011 onward), but the difference to previous years is tremendous.

For Pattaya there have been similar warnings. Even more dramatic, like problems arising this month.

The old-established will tell you: same panic every year.

I am not sure.

[lovelomsak]

Can they not use article 44 make it rain and fill the reservoirs.

[ukrules]

When I read the headline I thought it meant they were 'going dry' which in plenty of places around the world means no alcohol will be on sale.

Drought I can live with...

[masuk]

A short walk around the back streets of Chiang Mai will show you a number of broken pipes, leaking water down the streets. There must be a great many sois, broken pipes, wasted water in towns and cities around the country.

I don't think anyone cares, but to me, seeing water running to waste is anathema. If people don't know, they don't care, but they might be worried when things run out in the near future.

I can't agree with 'Ukrules'. This is not the UK, and living with limited or nil water is no fun. Rain water runs to waste, there is little guttering or tanks and while it might be full of atmospheric crud, it can be used for many things other than drinking.

[alant]

When I read the headline I thought it meant they were 'going dry' which in plenty of places around the world means no alcohol will be on sale.

Drought I can live with...

I think they are doing their best to make the place alcohol free as well... Or at least that's what the evidence and data would indicate.

Edited September 10, 2015 by alant

[AlQaholic]

Oh sh$%@t, and I thought this was about alcohol prohibition.......peeww........

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[DeepInTheForest]

When I read the headline I thought it meant they were 'going dry' which in plenty of places around the world means no alcohol will be on sale.

Drought I can live with...

We can say that now with a smile, but many have found out otherwise over the centuries.

True, we are among the world's winners, we may have money and options, but others do not.

Water use will be a crucible for human societies in the not-too-distant future.

Edited September 10, 2015 by DeepInTheForest

[Stevemercer]

To OP. I think you are right. Thailand will be facing severe drought by January next year. This will cause severe agricultural and rural problems as no water will be available for irrigation. Urban dwellers will have to share the 'pain' through a doubling of water prices. There will be costs to the government for compensation and dislocation to urban areas. All this will be at some cost to the Thai economy.

I live in rural Isaan and my ponds/dams should be overflowing by now. They are still at the same level as January last year. We have usually had at least 6 minor flood events by now, but there have been none so far this year. Superficially everything looks green, but the dams have not filled. The country has had plenty of light rain which has soaked into the ground, but not the heavy rain needed to cause prolonged surface runoff and to fill dams.

I'm sure the government is well aware of this and is proactive in planning to deal with the looming drought (rather than just crossing their fingers and hoping/praying for late wet season rain). After all, the looming problem must be obvious to anyone who lives on the land.

[DeepInTheForest]

A short walk around the back streets of Chiang Mai will show you a number of broken pipes, leaking water down the streets. There must be a great many sois, broken pipes, wasted water in towns and cities around the country.

I don't think anyone cares, but to me, seeing water running to waste is anathema. If people don't know, they don't care, but they might be worried when things run out in the near future.

I can't agree with 'Ukrules'. This is not the UK, and living with limited or nil water is no fun. Rain water runs to waste, there is little guttering or tanks and while it might be full of atmospheric crud, it can be used for many things other than drinking.

Water is used and wasted as well in agricultural settings, and also in the generation of electricity in coal as well as nuclear plants, which many are not aware of. Advocates in developed countries are trying to raise the issue. http://www.ucsusa.org/clean_energy/our-energy-choices/energy-and-water-use/freshwater-use-by-us-power-plants.html#.VfD4GJfN2dg

And here's another one: Golf. The sport is an environmental disaster for tropical countries. Pesticides, fertilizers, the shanghai-ing of entire streams... makes no sense in a climate like Thailand's. Needless to say, the golf craze is far from abating in the LOS.

Read about it (beware, there's an annoying audio track that autoplays):

http://www.antigolf.org/english.htm

http://www.antigolf.org/english.html

Edited September 10, 2015 by DeepInTheForest

[ronthai]

Must be something (getting) smelly

[meltingpot2015]

phew!, so the "in the vicinity of school premises" alcohol ban is not being extended to cover the whole of Thailand.

Edited September 10, 2015 by meltingpot2015

[elgordo38]

When I read the headline I thought it meant they were 'going dry' which in plenty of places around the world means no alcohol will be on sale.

Drought I can live with...

We can say that now with a smile, but many have found out otherwise over the centuries.

True, we are among the world's winners, we may have money and options, but others do not.

Water use will be a crucible for human societies in the not-too-distant future.

Forget the not to distant future its here now yet they keep throwing up condo's all over the place chasing tourists all of which are only making our water crisis worse. We are like lemmings heading over a cliff. If I was looking for a condo today my first question would be "how secure is the water do you have your own well" not how cheap is the price. After water there are other problems queuing up like sewage, electric, air quality, gridlock, infrastructure, poor government, garbage(sometimes its hard to separate the two and we should seriously be separating both) We no longer manufacture quality items that last for years we are only making 2 year throw away crap(loading up the garbage dumps) and then rushing out to buy replacements. We are Svengalied by all the new wonderful products that seem to hit stores daily. We stupidly line up for days to be the first in line to buy. Its a mess in the making.

[elgordo38]

To OP. I think you are right. Thailand will be facing severe drought by January next year. This will cause severe agricultural and rural problems as no water will be available for irrigation. Urban dwellers will have to share the 'pain' through a doubling of water prices. There will be costs to the government for compensation and dislocation to urban areas. All this will be at some cost to the Thai economy.

I live in rural Isaan and my ponds/dams should be overflowing by now. They are still at the same level as January last year. We have usually had at least 6 minor flood events by now, but there have been none so far this year. Superficially everything looks green, but the dams have not filled. The country has had plenty of light rain which has soaked into the ground, but not the heavy rain needed to cause prolonged surface runoff and to fill dams.

I'm sure the government is well aware of this and is proactive in planning to deal with the looming drought (rather than just crossing their fingers and hoping/praying for late wet season rain). After all, the looming problem must be obvious to anyone who lives on the land.

Hear no evil, speak no evil, see no evil.

[billd766]

To OP. I think you are right. Thailand will be facing severe drought by January next year. This will cause severe agricultural and rural problems as no water will be available for irrigation. Urban dwellers will have to share the 'pain' through a doubling of water prices. There will be costs to the government for compensation and dislocation to urban areas. All this will be at some cost to the Thai economy.

I live in rural Isaan and my ponds/dams should be overflowing by now. They are still at the same level as January last year. We have usually had at least 6 minor flood events by now, but there have been none so far this year. Superficially everything looks green, but the dams have not filled. The country has had plenty of light rain which has soaked into the ground, but not the heavy rain needed to cause prolonged surface runoff and to fill dams.

I'm sure the government is well aware of this and is proactive in planning to deal with the looming drought (rather than just crossing their fingers and hoping/praying for late wet season rain). After all, the looming problem must be obvious to anyone who lives on the land.

I live in Khampaeng Phet province on the opposite side of Thailand to you but the problems are similar.

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.
Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.
122/30 = approximately 4 months
That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.
Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

[NoshowJones]

To OP. I think you are right. Thailand will be facing severe drought by January next year. This will cause severe agricultural and rural problems as no water will be available for irrigation. Urban dwellers will have to share the 'pain' through a doubling of water prices. There will be costs to the government for compensation and dislocation to urban areas. All this will be at some cost to the Thai economy.

I live in rural Isaan and my ponds/dams should be overflowing by now. They are still at the same level as January last year. We have usually had at least 6 minor flood events by now, but there have been none so far this year. Superficially everything looks green, but the dams have not filled. The country has had plenty of light rain which has soaked into the ground, but not the heavy rain needed to cause prolonged surface runoff and to fill dams.

I'm sure the government is well aware of this and is proactive in planning to deal with the looming drought (rather than just crossing their fingers and hoping/praying for late wet season rain). After all, the looming problem must be obvious to anyone who lives on the land.

So Songcran might be cancelled next year????? No chance.

[billd766]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Are you a meteorologist with your own local weather station? Perhaps a water conservation and dams expert? Are you qualified in irrigation work perhaps?

I don't think you are correct and I have been collecting the weather station reports from the Thai Weather Bureau at the Khampaeng Phet weather station for several years now.

To fill the reservoirs to the max will take several years of heavy rain which didn't come this year and due to El Nino most probably won't come next year either.

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/

Have a look at their website including the 3 month forecast and it shows less rain than the average.

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/3month_forecast.php

http://www.tmd.go.th/en/climate.php?FileID=5

Look at the the yearly forecasts from 2014 back to 2010 especially the rainfall charts.

Edited September 10, 2015 by billd766

[elgordo38]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

And you know this how? by killing a chicken and reading its entrails. To much today is judged by looking in the rear view mirror. Maybe by looking out the windshield you might see that the terrain has changed considerably.

[sandyf]

Our shallower well normally runs out end of March/April time. 4 years ago it ran out end of December and in the March the rainy season started. By the autumn a large part of Thailand was under water.

[hanuman2543]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Says who?

[northernphil]

KhunBENQ. Not too sure about heavy drought. Heavy rain, severe drought .......anyway it rains everyday up north , can't remember when we last had a day without rain.

Photo on leaving Huai Khrai today about 2pm. a few miles south of the northern border with Myanmar.

[ozyjon]

I don't believe it.

It will be interesting to see the Bangkok skyline,

not long ago the story read ''Bangkok soon to be

under water'' now ''biggest drought to hit Thailand''

all understood, the issue is, for Bangkok anyway,

that it is built on a mud plain, completely waterlogged,

this is actually good for buildings, it keeps them up

right, as the ground dries the buildings start to crack

and maybe tilt with the weight of the building,, oooohhh

ahhhh, what will happen next i wonder?

[joshstiles]

Under Article 44 there is a clause for bringing rain to Bangkok, but it calls for the PM to also reliquish all power and step down...

hence, it is doubtful that the unelected PM has Thailand's best interest at heart.....

on another note....the PM has started studying latin.

[bangmai]

I read recently, if they would capture just 10% of the rainwater in BKK, there wouldn't be any shortages. Basically, it's the low hanging fruit at work.....it's always been too easy, with so much rain, they never had to build large scale water infrastructure. You do often see leaks that go unrepaired, and that is mostly a reflection of low water rates. Golf courses can and often do use grey water and are a good alternative to more concrete. El niño is causing it to be less wet here, but may cause the western US to get buried this winter.

[phazey]

I guess this means i'll have to shower with the wife more and drink beer in preference to water.

Just doing my part..... <Starship Troopers> ARE YOU!</starship Troopers>

[swampdonkey]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

September already

What month is this rain going to

Appear .

In only a few weeks time dry season will be here again

It is not scaremongering the country will have a big problem next year and it will have an effect on everyday life

[elgenon]

My understanding is during an "El Nino" the California gets more rain and SE Asia gets less. The "normal" flow changes.

[Sviss Geez]

"Narongkorn Somtom (Director of the Region 12 irrigation office) wrote in a letter dated Sept 7th, that the water contained in the four major dams of Thailand (Bhumibol, Sirikit, Pasak Chonlasit and Kwai Noi) stands at only 1955 cubic meters. Water is currently being discharged at 16 million cubic meters per day from the four dams collectively.

Some math: 1955/16 = 122 days of usable water left.

122/30 = approximately 4 months

That means, if rainfall is not significant and prolonged in the coming four months (which it isn't likely to be), then the dams could completely dry up by late December/early January.

Any thoughts? Have I missed something here?"

What you have missed whilst attempting to scaremonger is that there will be significant rain in the coming months.

Are you a meteorologist with your own local weather station? Perhaps a water conservation and dams expert? Are you qualified in irrigation work perhaps?

I don't think you are correct and I have been collecting the weather station reports from the Thai Weather Bureau at the Khampaeng Phet weather station for several years now.

No, I'm not, I don't need to be a meteorologist.

Good luck with your hobby, let's see who's right in January, eh?