I think Bangkok condo market is crashing

[KittenKong]

I bought my car new from a dealer. I will probably keep it for a very long time as it gets very little wear (I have no extended Thai family eating and sleeping on the back seats, in fact only the driver's seat has had any use in the three years I have owned the vehicle, and I dont drive off-road).

so you are completely alone in life, congratulations.

No, just alone in my car. This suits me fine so congratulations are indeed in order. Thanks.

[KittenKong]

In the building we now live in the mgmt committee has worked hard in convincing the owners of the long term benefits of keeping up the quality and this has worked to an extent; even so there were some grumbles at the last agm when the mgmt introduced a special charge for (a much needed) lobby re-fresh. This was somewhat depressing as some of those complaining (they were all Thai btw) have owned in the building from the start and will have seen the value of their units up over 200%.

When it comes to paying extra fees, farang owners of rental units in my building are quite bad.

But Thai owners are a thousand times worse. They are total cheapskates, unwilling to spend even 1B on anything at all.

The only people consistently willing to spend money to improve the building are farang owner-occupiers.

[kotsak]

I don't understand the mindset of some people. There's a vacant shop in my condo in lobby area. It's been vacant for 2 years. I was interested in seeing how much rent is because my gf wants her own business.

I talked to the manager and she said that owner wants like 60,000baht rent and that nobody wants it.

So, instead of lowering the price like anyone with a brain would do, this numpty has been missing out on 2 years of income because he won't lower his price. How do these people survive?

They fail to realize that 1% of something is far better than 100% of nothing..

[luk AJ]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

[spidermike007]

People tend to mistake a correction or a stagnant market for a crash. Same with a recession being mistaken for a depression. A crash would represent a drop of 30-50% of market value. A depression would represent unemployment of 40%, and the Dow dropping to around 3,000. In the US, my guess is that a depression would trigger a drop of 40-80% of market value in homes, and condos, as they are already so overinflated in many areas. Now that would get some attention.

Edited September 22, 2015 by spidermike007

[Robert24]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

agree the Bangkok market is not crashing but there are plenty of cities in Asia with lower land prices than Bangkok. You can stort for instance with all the cities in Thailand apart from Bangkok and continue from there......

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

agree the Bangkok market is not crashing but there are plenty of cities in Asia with lower land prices than Bangkok. You can stort for instance with all the cities in Thailand apart from Bangkok and continue from there......

He said capital. How about every bordering country with Thailand.

[Robert24]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

agree the Bangkok market is not crashing but there are plenty of cities in Asia with lower land prices than Bangkok. You can stort for instance with all the cities in Thailand apart from Bangkok and continue from there......

He said capital. How about every bordering country with Thailand.

ok misread, sorry. How about Jakarta then as an example.

[trogers]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

agree the Bangkok market is not crashing but there are plenty of cities in Asia with lower land prices than Bangkok. You can stort for instance with all the cities in Thailand apart from Bangkok and continue from there......

He said capital. How about every bordering country with Thailand.

ok misread, sorry. How about Jakarta then as an example.

Cannot really compare as Jakarta do not issue freehold land titles. Should this changes, we need to wait about 8-10 years for prices to adjust through a property cycle...

[theguyfromanotherforum]

Mind you, I am financing a condo in Toronto (is many arrogant Canadians call is the center of the universe) and it's 50% paid.

I expect to see a condo crash in Toronto before it arrives to Bangkok.

Mind you, banks in Canada are similar to Thailand in how they operate. There are no foreclosures. Repossessed homes are sold at market price with no discounts. In Canada there has also been a devaluation or currency of about 30% which makes condos for foreign investors 30% cheaper to buy. We also have the lower interest rates than USA on mortgages.

Thailand's currency has not devalued.... only against US dollar and I don't see Americans going to a shopping spree here. They are mostly broke. The peasant Chinese tourists have lost all their money in the recent market crash.

So yes, I see a crash. Even worse, I see buildings deteriorating even faster due to skipped common element payments.

The crash will only be known after the fact, so I don't claim to be Peter Schiff on this board.

[Robert24]

He said capital. How about every bordering country with Thailand.

ok misread, sorry. How about Jakarta then as an example.

Cannot really compare as Jakarta do not issue freehold land titles. Should this changes, we need to wait about 8-10 years for prices to adjust through a property cycle...

Indonesians cannot buy landed property?

[huawei]

What is the meaning of 'Crashing'?

The only time the Thai property market did crashed was during the Tom Yum Kung crisis.

There was a small dip and a couple of years of price stagnation in 2007-8 due to the Sub-prime crisis.

I would expect something similar this year and next, as the world faces the deflation spillover from China.

The currency crashed fast in the 1997 Tom Yum Gung crises, but real-estate took a long slow decline and only bottomed out late 2001 to mid 2002.

Even with stagnating prices, 2-4% inflation is slowly eroding condo prices in Bangkok.

There will not be a condo crash but a currency one.

Even when the market bottomed out in 2002, the condos I saw pre- auctions were mostly snapped up by Thais before I could even put in an offer. Also surprisingly there weren't great deals to be had, a lot of poor quality for sale.

Now there are more foreigners in the market , there maybe more opportunities this time round.

[trogers]

He said capital. How about every bordering country with Thailand.

ok misread, sorry. How about Jakarta then as an example.

Cannot really compare as Jakarta do not issue freehold land titles. Should this changes, we need to wait about 8-10 years for prices to adjust through a property cycle...

Indonesians cannot buy landed property?

Sure they can. Just that the land title is a lease from the government, subjected to renewal.

[elgenon]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

Yangon!

[Robert24]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

Yangon!

Yangon isn't a capital city....but this sort of comparison by capital city about market prices of property is not really leading anywhere in my opinion.

[Rocketsurgeon]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

Yangon!

Yangon isn't a capital city....but this sort of comparison by capital city about market prices of property is not really leading anywhere in my opinion.

Yangon formally Rangoon is most certainly a capital city. Just because the junta decided to relo their homebase outside the capital is not to give it its due.

Further, I seriously doubt land is cheaper there. It once was the wealthiest port in south and east Asia.

[Crash999]

Bangkok market crashing? Name me one capital city in Asia where the price per m2 is lower than Bangkok.

Yangon!

You might be assuming that because Yangon is relatively underdeveloped. But prices right there are insane at the moment. Friend of mine who opened a branch office there is paying the equivalent of USD$4000/mo for 80 square meters of space. Everyone is jumping in at once so prices have gone through the roof.