No US Social Security COLA Increase For 2016

Pib · October 19, 2015

One thing anyone turning 65 in 2016 and going under Mediare should be concerned about since there will be no SS COLA increase this year is a possible BIG increase in the Medicare premium due to no SS COLA in 2016.

While current laws have a "hold harmless provision" for Medicare premium increases when there is no SS COLA increase, that hold harmless provision does "not" apply for new Medicare enrollees and some other groups.

What this means is about 70% of the currently enrolled Medicare folks would see no premium increase in 2016 but new enrollees and other groups who are not covered by the hold harmless provision and make up approx 30% of total Medicare enrollees would bear the blunt of a needed premium increase for everyone....that is, the 30% of folks would cover the needed premium increase for the 100% of folks.

Been lots of news articles on this issue over the last few months...here's a 15 Oct 15 one from the NY Times which talks about it and what Congress and the Prez will need to do to prevent a premium increase for approx 15 million folks.

I'm not sure Congress can do much of anything now days with all the in-fighting going on. The "Do Nothing" Congress for the last 5 years or so is definitely a fitting title. But hopefully they'll stop their in-fighting long enough to get something done.

sgtsabai · October 19, 2015

ggt, oh no, another faux (not the) news believer. To anything faux (not the) news vomits out I say bull.... . Try checking the last time Federal employees had a raise, it might enlighten you. Obama was the one that wouldn't give them a raise, ah duh. Then again..... ? As a former government employee, both Federal, state and county, I seldom if ever got to warm a chair. Want to try 14/16 hour days and nights? You are listening to propaganda, government workers work and they are cheaper, proven over and over again, than private contractors that make all the money, get less done for more and screw over their employees.

csabo · October 19, 2015

To me this is BS,shine man wants it all for him self. Sorry but I am a republican,and that is my assessment of him.

Shine man? Huh?

http://www.shinemanfoundation.org/

Anyway, no you're wrong, this comes from a set formula and yes gas prices are way down.

Of course I'm going to be on SS someday and will want to see COLA increases as well. I'm sure they will continue in future years.

Don't count on it. Years ago we got a decent increase in COLA till they rejigged the formula. Yes gas prices are way down but what a crock of a way to make a statement as everything else including food, services car repairs, insurances, rents and health care for most are way up. Rents especially as most people cannot afford homes. The cost of living is at zero according to the government and our savings in the bank are at zero interest. We are the zero senior generation. This whole mess was orchestrated by big banks and overextended borrowers and in debt over their head governments and now we seniors must pay with our savings what a mess. Who borrows mostly from banks well of course governments that are broke and their big business buddies to buy back their own stock or their competitors. We are all a victim of the largest government swindle on the planet.

Which governments borrow from banks? Not the US govt nor any state govt. The financial crisis of 2008 arose from an excess of private, not government, debt.

Learn

https://youtu.be/tGk5ioEXlIM

Jingthing · October 19, 2015

COLA.

I wonder if non-Americans think we're whining about our government not increasing the bottles of Coca-Cola they ship to us?

Us 'Murcans love us some COKE.

Edited October 19, 2015 by Jingthing

puukao · October 19, 2015

you are either scamming people or getting scammed....

it's amazing the 1% controls the 99 so easily...

they create the rules and say you need 289037432984732432 to sign petition before they hear your voice...

the income gap widens!!! gov't bonuses this year up 20%

puukao · October 19, 2015

COLA.

I wonder if non-Americans think we're whining about out government shipping less bottles of Coca-Cola to us?

what????? It's obviously Cost Of Los Angeles. They have an index of how much it costs to go clubbing in LA, live on the beach, and live the American Dream!!!

connda · October 19, 2015

It's all sunshine and roses, well, for the 1%ers. The hell with everyone else.

gk10002000 · October 19, 2015

Yeah. It is silly but they do base inflation on those CPI things. Granted gas prices have gone down, but I am sure nobody's utility bills, rent, or food has gone down! And most Seniors on social security don't drive much, so the price of gas up or down is a small direct consideration for them. My Mom is about to move in with my youngest Sister which will actually work out pretty well for all involved. God bless my brother in law for being able to handle two of the women in my family!

kksdbk · October 19, 2015

Newbie, (you must be NEW)

The decision to NOT raise Social Security was caused by a REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED Congress. George W Bush "STOLE" 1.3 TRILLION dollars to pay for Tax cuts for His rich friends, and for the IRAQ invasion and it was NEVER paid back!

kerrysum · October 19, 2015

No they won't , but you can be damn sure Medicare will go up.... Wow what a system.....

Time Traveller · October 20, 2015

the reason this irritates me so much is the fact that Congress just passed a $630 Billion bill to fund the military for the next fiscal year. This amount is the highest ever and the highest in the World. How can any government justify not assisting its Senior citizens and disabled veterans and go and do something like this. I don't care what formula they are using- Congress and the President both can pass a one time increase for Social Security and VA disability if they want to. While we send our young soldiers and airmen off to fight in useless military exercises, our government is telling other members of our society to pay for it and tighten your belts. We paid into Social security for years and many of us had to tighten our belts then while the wealthy continued to avoid having to pay their fair share/ If I sound disgusted- I am. The sad part is it doesn't matter who is in power in America. They are all beholden to the military industrial complex and none of them care about the poor or middle class.

The Libertarian party isn't. There is more than just two parties.

Thaidream · October 20, 2015

There are more than 2 parties but unfortunately while I agree that the Libertarian party is more to my liking than the 2 majority parties- they cannot get their message across due to lack of funding and a nationally known candidate.The election cycle in America is so structured that one must have very deep pockets and backers who are also wealthy. This inhibits those that actually could make the changes that America and Americans so desperately need. The discontent on this board on this one issue shows just how deep it goes. There are overall issues that all Americans face as a result of a succession of Presidents and a Congress that just refuses to do what is right for Americans.

Then for those overseas there is the Medicare issue. We have all paid into the system for years but cannot use it overseas and cannot get a refund on our contribution. If the government/Congress really wanted to save taxpayer money, they would jump at the chance for retired citizens to utilize overseas facilities which are so much cheaper than American hospitals and doctors. They hide behind the excuse that their is no quality assurance overseas but yet the system in the United States bleeds from fraud. The real reason they refuse to allow the use of Medicare overseas is lobbyists from the Insurance/Hospital/Physician clique who might see their over priced services decline. We have no real representation- yet we have all paid the taxes and continue to do so. It seems to me a revolution occurred over being taxed with no representation. I am still waiting for the next one.

elgordo38 · October 20, 2015

Yeah. It is silly but they do base inflation on those CPI things. Granted gas prices have gone down, but I am sure nobody's utility bills, rent, or food has gone down! And most Seniors on social security don't drive much, so the price of gas up or down is a small direct consideration for them. My Mom is about to move in with my youngest Sister which will actually work out pretty well for all involved. God bless my brother in law for being able to handle two of the women in my family!

Yes the CPI is rigged and you will see more households "amalgamating" in the future. A lot of what is happening now goes back to a secret meeting held almost a 100 years ago. Buy the book "The Creature From Jekyll Island" It is a big heavy read but it is one of the few things that Fox News Glenn Beck got right. It exposures how the right wing shenanigans started. I hear shortly after they fired him. The writer of this book says true inflation is closer to 20% but I really question that.

elgordo38 · October 20, 2015

Newbie, (you must be NEW)

The decision to NOT raise Social Security was caused by a REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED Congress. George W Bush "STOLE" 1.3 TRILLION dollars to pay for Tax cuts for His rich friends, and for the IRAQ invasion and it was NEVER paid back!

Watch the following

and then click on Glenn Beck on the right hand column the 39 minute interview. It is riveting to say the least. Yes GWB is a war criminal. The man is being protected by his brother "Just Call Me Jeb" whose comments on his brother is why he is sinking or staying at the same level in the presidential polls. It makes me cry when I watch how he puts on this "bicycle ride" on his ranch for disabled vets. The very same vets that can thank him and his wrong war for their predicament.

IMA_FARANG · October 20, 2015

wont worry me,

my last years increase was only $7/month LOL

-------------------------------------

In 2014 my COLA for Social Security went up by a total of $12 annually.

At the same time They increased my automatic deduction for Medicare/Medicaid from $ 99 monthly to $112 monthly.

I retired at age 64 in 2010 due to medical problems that made it impossible to continue working until age 65 so I get only 75% of my total eligibility for SS benefits., not 100%.

And because I am overseas , I can only use those Medicare benefits in the U.S.

I can not prove it but it is possible some of my health problems are due to the 5 years I spent at a place in Vietnam form 1967 to 1973 where they were using an "herbicide" monthly to clear weeds just outside our compound.

In 1990 the U.S. army finally acknowledged the "herbicide" was called Agent Orange.

But there is no documented proof of that.

I got my first Social Security Card when I went to work part time at a farm job and started paying Social Security taxes in 1960 when I was not yet 14 years old.

(My birthday is in October, I got my first Social Security card in July 1960.....3 months before I actually had my 14th birthday.)

So it goes.

Don't get me wrong, us country boys can survive. I'm doing o.k. here in LOS.

Don't plan on living in the U.S. ever again though.

Edited October 20, 2015 by IMA_FARANG

Pib · October 20, 2015

-------------------------------------

In 2014 my COLA for Social Security went up by a total of $12 annually.

At the same time They increased my automatic deduction for Medicare/Medicaid from $ 99 monthly to $112 monthly.

I retired at age 64 in 2010 due to medical problems that made it impossible to continue working until age 65 so I get only 75% of my total eligibility for SS benefits., not 100%.

And because I am overseas , I can only use those Medicare benefits in the U.S.

A person get 75% if the retire at 62....100% if retiring at their full retirement age which appears to be 66 for you since it appears you were born between 1943-1954. Since you said you retired at 64 your percentage is approx 87%; not 75%.

A partial quote from the SS website follows...go to the link below to see the percentage breakout by month from 62 to 66.

https://www.ssa.gov/planners/retire/1943.html

Your full retirement age is 66

Remember, the earliest a person can start receiving Social Security retirement benefits will remain age 62.

If you start receiving retirement benefits at

age 62, you will get 75% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 48 months.

age 65, you will get 93.3% of the monthly benefit because you will be getting benefits for an additional 12 months.

Also where you say your Medicare Part B premium increased from $99 to $112 in 2014...the 2014 Part B Premium for most folks has been $104.90 for 2013, 2014, and 2015.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/10/28/doughnut-hole-medicare-part-d/3286733/

Premiums for Medicare Part B will stay at $104.90 a month for 2014, the same as in 2013, according to the Center for Medicare Services. Premiums have either decreased or stayed the same for the past three years.

Edited October 20, 2015 by Pib

bendejo · October 22, 2015

Blame it on Bernie. He usually champions the COLA but this year he's been too busy campaigning.

TuskegeeBen · October 22, 2015

To me this is BS,shine man wants it all for him self. Sorry but I am a republican,and that is my assessment of him.

Shine Man (as you call him) has absolutely nothing to do with it. That honor goes to your long-tall, Texass dough-boy brother, Lyndon Baines Johnson. He's one who sold your soda-cracker assessing head, totally down the drain, in 1968. Duh!

TuskegeeBen · October 22, 2015

This happened a couple of years ago as well. What sucked then was that the VA had the money for COLA, but SS didn't, and by law, VA can only give as much as SS.

And I agree with X pat's statement.

Duh is u 2. It never ceases to amaze me, that so many Pillsburied dough-boy Americans can be so confoundingly stupid. I suppose you blame Shine Man for creating The 1913 Federal Reserve Banking System, as well? Oops! Sorry, butt I forgot. That topic is probably much too deep,.......... for the likes of you two, eh?

Edited October 22, 2015 by TuskegeeBen

elgordo38 · October 23, 2015

wont worry me,

my last years increase was only $7/month LOL

-------------------------------------

In 2014 my COLA for Social Security went up by a total of $12 annually.

At the same time They increased my automatic deduction for Medicare/Medicaid from $ 99 monthly to $112 monthly.

I retired at age 64 in 2010 due to medical problems that made it impossible to continue working until age 65 so I get only 75% of my total eligibility for SS benefits., not 100%.

And because I am overseas , I can only use those Medicare benefits in the U.S.

I can not prove it but it is possible some of my health problems are due to the 5 years I spent at a place in Vietnam form 1967 to 1973 where they were using an "herbicide" monthly to clear weeds just outside our compound.

In 1990 the U.S. army finally acknowledged the "herbicide" was called Agent Orange.

But there is no documented proof of that.

I got my first Social Security Card when I went to work part time at a farm job and started paying Social Security taxes in 1960 when I was not yet 14 years old.

(My birthday is in October, I got my first Social Security card in July 1960.....3 months before I actually had my 14th birthday.)

So it goes.

Don't get me wrong, us country boys can survive. I'm doing o.k. here in LOS.

Don't plan on living in the U.S. ever again though.

Yes I worked on a farm part time to at age 14 and if anything it taught me the value of a buck. It was hard earned and spent wisely. Today there is no hard work only borrow and spend.

connda · October 23, 2015

To me this is BS,shine man wants it all for him self. Sorry but I am a republican,and that is my assessment of him.

Shine man? Huh?

http://www.shinemanfoundation.org/

Anyway, no you're wrong, this comes from a set formula and yes gas prices are way down.

Of course I'm going to be on SS someday and will want to see COLA increases as well. I'm sure they will continue in future years.

Don't count on it. Years ago we got a decent increase in COLA till they rejigged the formula. Yes gas prices are way down but what a crock of a way to make a statement as everything else including food, services car repairs, insurances, rents and health care for most are way up. Rents especially as most people cannot afford homes. The cost of living is at zero according to the government and our savings in the bank are at zero interest. We are the zero senior generation. This whole mess was orchestrated by big banks and overextended borrowers and in debt over their head governments and now we seniors must pay with our savings what a mess. Who borrows mostly from banks well of course governments that are broke and their big business buddies to buy back their own stock or their competitors. We are all a victim of the largest government swindle on the planet.

Which governments borrow from banks? Not the US govt nor any state govt. The financial crisis of 2008 arose from an excess of private, not government, debt.

Which the government, through the private Federal Reserve, bailed out. Including not only US banks, but foreign banks too. None of which is auditable, so God only know what money went where and to whom. Which is the way it's suppose to be. "Little People need to just consume until they reach retirement, and then die quickly, preferably broke or in debt servitude.

JimGant · October 23, 2015

"...my "benefit" was recently reduced by $42.00 per month. SocSec reported that the reduction was based on my IRS tax return reflecting the amount of my total income (retirement/pensions). Gee, I wonder if I am wealthy and don't know it."

Well, you're certainly comfortable, since your "modified adjusted gross income" (essentially, AGI plus tax exempt earnings) is no less than $85,000 if single, $170,000 if married. That can buy a very comfortable life style, at least by my standards. Of course, it they've gotten your numbers wrong (as they did with my mom), you can bring this to their attention. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs/part-b-costs.html

"The decision to NOT raise Social Security was caused by a REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED Congress."

Nope. This is on automatic pilot, completely driven by CPI numbers. Of course, Congress can rewicker the formula, but that didn't occur this year.

"Years ago we got a decent increase in COLA till they rejigged the formula."

They've yet to rejigger the formula -- unless you're referring to the periodic rejuggling of the typical consumer's basket of goods. In fact, when COLA first came in (1975), inflation had to exceed 3% before any COLA increases were considered.

"It is interesting to note that since 1975 SS has seen a COLA increase for every year except three.

Those three years were beginning on January 1st of 2010, 2011 and now 2016.

Remind me again, which party has had control of the White House during each of those three years."

Remind me again which party caused the Great Recession, with its accompanying low inflation (and thus no COLA). And which party opposed TARP, whose stimulus, fortunately, at least prevented any deflation. Yeah, Obama tried for even more stimulus -- that would have nudged inflation -- but you can only do so much with so many Tea Party bozos on board.

"...my last years increase was only $7/month LOL"

Since I retired from the Air Force 27 years ago, my pension, because of COLAs, has more than doubled, along with the CPI index. Presumably, had I been on SS for 27 years, it too would have doubled. Contrast this to someone with a civilian pension (my wife). No change ever.

"Also consider ourselves somewhat lucky in that expats are not excluded from this pension and also not excluded from COLA increases when they do occur."

Yeah, believe the Brits lose their COLA when they expatriate.

So, quit whining. COLA's purpose is to keep the average man's buying power on an even keel. If no inflation, no COLA. It sounds like somehow COLA is perceived by some to provide a living stipend to SS recipients. Nope. That would take an act of Congress to take from those who "have," and give to those who don't. Nothing to do with inflation and COLAs. Purely social re-engineering -- and means testing.

elgordo38 · October 23, 2015

"...my "benefit" was recently reduced by $42.00 per month. SocSec reported that the reduction was based on my IRS tax return reflecting the amount of my total income (retirement/pensions). Gee, I wonder if I am wealthy and don't know it."

Well, you're certainly comfortable, since your "modified adjusted gross income" (essentially, AGI plus tax exempt earnings) is no less than $85,000 if single, $170,000 if married. That can buy a very comfortable life style, at least by my standards. Of course, it they've gotten your numbers wrong (as they did with my mom), you can bring this to their attention. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs/part-b-costs.html

"The decision to NOT raise Social Security was caused by a REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED Congress."

Nope. This is on automatic pilot, completely driven by CPI numbers. Of course, Congress can rewicker the formula, but that didn't occur this year.

"Years ago we got a decent increase in COLA till they rejigged the formula."

They've yet to rejigger the formula -- unless you're referring to the periodic rejuggling of the typical consumer's basket of goods. In fact, when COLA first came in (1975), inflation had to exceed 3% before any COLA increases were considered.

"It is interesting to note that since 1975 SS has seen a COLA increase for every year except three.

Those three years were beginning on January 1st of 2010, 2011 and now 2016.

Remind me again, which party has had control of the White House during each of those three years."

Remind me again which party caused the Great Recession, with its accompanying low inflation (and thus no COLA). And which party opposed TARP, whose stimulus, fortunately, at least prevented any deflation. Yeah, Obama tried for even more stimulus -- that would have nudged inflation -- but you can only do so much with so many Tea Party bozos on board.

"...my last years increase was only $7/month LOL"

Since I retired from the Air Force 27 years ago, my pension, because of COLAs, has more than doubled, along with the CPI index. Presumably, had I been on SS for 27 years, it too would have doubled. Contrast this to someone with a civilian pension (my wife). No change ever.

"Also consider ourselves somewhat lucky in that expats are not excluded from this pension and also not excluded from COLA increases when they do occur."

Yeah, believe the Brits lose their COLA when they expatriate.

So, quit whining. COLA's purpose is to keep the average man's buying power on an even keel. If no inflation, no COLA. It sounds like somehow COLA is perceived by some to provide a living stipend to SS recipients. Nope. That would take an act of Congress to take from those who "have," and give to those who don't. Nothing to do with inflation and COLAs. Purely social re-engineering -- and means testing.

Quote The median CPI, published by the Cleveland Fed, is more stable than the CPI. It had been consistently showing a 2.2% annual rate. In the last few months, it has ticked up. For September, it showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5%. unquote I stand by my claim that they rejigged the formula. Anyone that shops for a living knows that the correct inflation rate is even above 2.5% either that or somebody else does your shopping and paying bills or well your in denial which so many people are today. Then again you could be so filthy rich that these raises mean nothing to you.

JimGant · October 23, 2015

Quote The median CPI, published by the Cleveland Fed, is more stable than the CPI. It had been consistently showing a 2.2% annual rate. In the last few months, it has ticked up. For September, it showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5%. unquote I stand by my claim that they rejigged the formula.

I'm not sure where you're coming from. Yes, Cleveland uses a forward looking formula to predict inflation. And they might have a better crystal ball than BLS, which uses historical data for their inflation prediction. But, the Social Security Administration (your presumed "they") hasn't "rejigged" the formula -- they just haven't adopted Cleveland's model, still using the CPI-W forumula:

How is a COLA calculated?

The Social Security Act specifies a formula for determining each COLA. According to the formula, COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA.

So, it's still the CPI-W number that's being used. No rejiggering (even tho' it does favor wage earners over retirees -- you can thank the unions for that). Just be glad the less favorable Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index isn't used by the SSA:

In general, the CPI tends to report somewhat higher inflation. Since 2000, prices as measured by the CPI have risen by 39 percent, while those measured by the PCE have risen by 31 percent, leading to differing average annual inflation rates of 2.4 and 1.9 percent

I guess if your today's SS check is $2000, a Cleveland inflation number would give you a $50 COLA raise next year. But, each of us has his own inflation figure, which may or may not approximate the CPI -- or Cleveland -- number. And as someone has already pointed out, the baht/dollar serendipity has certainly been favorable to your personal inflation rate. So, just factor that in, forget Cleveland, and enjoy.

connda · October 24, 2015

Largely based on lower gas prices but many, like me at 81, haven't driven indecades and I cancelled my $ 100 + a month Medicare, years ago, as it is

not valid in Thailand even though many European Health Plans are

Fred,

Just curious, but how are you handling health insurance. The insurance companies here want to drop you like a hot potato once you hit 60 to 65. If the do cover you, then I'm assuming your premiums at 81 have to be off the charts. How do you handle health care and insurance if you have it?

connda · October 24, 2015

Annual increases or not, wait for it to be "means tested" or "income tested". Any other income/pensions will reduce your SocSec "benefit".

Not only no increase, but a reduction. Wait for it!

To add to this I can foresee the day when your SS payments will cease if your living outside the country. They hate to see these benefits sent to and spent in foreign countries. They claim that SS is an entitlement not a right. They are scrounging for every buck they can lay their hands on and it will only get worse. FATCA is only the beginning.

I'm not so sure of that, basically because there is such a large Hispanic population that contributes to Social Security, and many of these folks, I would assume, will opt to head back to Mexico, Central, or South American to retire (less expensive on a fixed income). The Hispanic lobby probably holds as much weight if not more than AARP. Any legislation like that would probably hit a brick wall with Latino lobbyist groups, and possibly AARP.

connda · October 24, 2015

This happened a couple of years ago as well. What sucked then was that the VA had the money for COLA, but SS didn't, and by law, VA can only give as much as SS.

And I agree with X pat's statement.

Duh is u 2. It never ceases to amaze me, that so many Pillsburied dough-boy Americans can be so confoundingly stupid. I suppose you blame Shine Man for creating The 1913 Federal Reserve Banking System, as well? Oops! Sorry, butt I forgot. That topic is probably much too deep,.......... for the likes of you two, eh?

Being a soda cracker, Pillsbury dough-boy, marshmallow, I'm in total agreement with you. Most posters know zip, zero, nada about US history, let along world history, let alone the history of the banking system. You have a point, including LBJ.

connda · October 24, 2015

"...my "benefit" was recently reduced by $42.00 per month. SocSec reported that the reduction was based on my IRS tax return reflecting the amount of my total income (retirement/pensions). Gee, I wonder if I am wealthy and don't know it."

Well, you're certainly comfortable, since your "modified adjusted gross income" (essentially, AGI plus tax exempt earnings) is no less than $85,000 if single, $170,000 if married. That can buy a very comfortable life style, at least by my standards. Of course, it they've gotten your numbers wrong (as they did with my mom), you can bring this to their attention. https://www.medicare.gov/your-medicare-costs/part-b-costs/part-b-costs.html

"The decision to NOT raise Social Security was caused by a REPUBLICAN CONTROLLED Congress."

Nope. This is on automatic pilot, completely driven by CPI numbers. Of course, Congress can rewicker the formula, but that didn't occur this year.

"Years ago we got a decent increase in COLA till they rejigged the formula."

They've yet to rejigger the formula -- unless you're referring to the periodic rejuggling of the typical consumer's basket of goods. In fact, when COLA first came in (1975), inflation had to exceed 3% before any COLA increases were considered.

"It is interesting to note that since 1975 SS has seen a COLA increase for every year except three.

Those three years were beginning on January 1st of 2010, 2011 and now 2016.

Remind me again, which party has had control of the White House during each of those three years."

Remind me again which party caused the Great Recession, with its accompanying low inflation (and thus no COLA). And which party opposed TARP, whose stimulus, fortunately, at least prevented any deflation. Yeah, Obama tried for even more stimulus -- that would have nudged inflation -- but you can only do so much with so many Tea Party bozos on board.

"...my last years increase was only $7/month LOL"

Since I retired from the Air Force 27 years ago, my pension, because of COLAs, has more than doubled, along with the CPI index. Presumably, had I been on SS for 27 years, it too would have doubled. Contrast this to someone with a civilian pension (my wife). No change ever.

"Also consider ourselves somewhat lucky in that expats are not excluded from this pension and also not excluded from COLA increases when they do occur."

Yeah, believe the Brits lose their COLA when they expatriate.

So, quit whining. COLA's purpose is to keep the average man's buying power on an even keel. If no inflation, no COLA. It sounds like somehow COLA is perceived by some to provide a living stipend to SS recipients. Nope. That would take an act of Congress to take from those who "have," and give to those who don't. Nothing to do with inflation and COLAs. Purely social re-engineering -- and means testing.

Hell, I'm happy we're getting approximately 35 THB / 1 USD. Screw the COLA.

connda · October 24, 2015

Quote The median CPI, published by the Cleveland Fed, is more stable than the CPI. It had been consistently showing a 2.2% annual rate. In the last few months, it has ticked up. For September, it showed a year-over-year increase of 2.5%. unquote I stand by my claim that they rejigged the formula.

I'm not sure where you're coming from. Yes, Cleveland uses a forward looking formula to predict inflation. And they might have a better crystal ball than BLS, which uses historical data for their inflation prediction. But, the Social Security Administration (your presumed "they") hasn't "rejigged" the formula -- they just haven't adopted Cleveland's model, still using the CPI-W forumula:

How is a COLA calculated?

The Social Security Act specifies a formula for determining each COLA. According to the formula, COLAs are based on increases in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). CPI-Ws are calculated on a monthly basis by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

A COLA effective for December of the current year is equal to the percentage increase (if any) in the average CPI-W for the third quarter of the current year over the average for the third quarter of the last year in which a COLA became effective. If there is an increase, it must be rounded to the nearest tenth of one percent. If there is no increase, or if the rounded increase is zero, there is no COLA.

So, it's still the CPI-W number that's being used. No rejiggering (even tho' it does favor wage earners over retirees -- you can thank the unions for that). Just be glad the less favorable Personal Consumer Expenditure (PCE) index isn't used by the SSA:

In general, the CPI tends to report somewhat higher inflation. Since 2000, prices as measured by the CPI have risen by 39 percent, while those measured by the PCE have risen by 31 percent, leading to differing average annual inflation rates of 2.4 and 1.9 percent

I guess if your today's SS check is $2000, a Cleveland inflation number would give you a $50 COLA raise next year. But, each of us has his own inflation figure, which may or may not approximate the CPI -- or Cleveland -- number. And as someone has already pointed out, the baht/dollar serendipity has certainly been favorable to your personal inflation rate. So, just factor that in, forget Cleveland, and enjoy.

Go to http://www.shadowstats.com/

or

Google: "Shadow Government Statistics". Then you'll understand what was rejigged, when, and how.

Regarding the CPI, consider the 'Basket of Good' used in determining that number over time:

But like I said in a previous post, at 35 THB to the US dollar, I'm like, whatever. I expect the USG to ultimately 'shag' each an every one of us eventually. Virtually a total asset redistribution to the political and corporate upper crust, and neo-feudalism for everyone else.

However, I do like Trends Research author, Gerald Celente's quote: "When people have nothing else to lose, they 'lose it'." Think: French Revolution, "Let them eat cake", pitchforks, guillotines. That's just one example.

Wonder where the government and corporate elites want to go:

The excess of the haves vs the have-nots King Henry the VIII style.

Charles Laughton as King Henry VIII - Classic Laughton.

https://youtu.be/v4tOb9J7W2k

Edited October 24, 2015 by connda

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No US Social Security COLA Increase For 2016

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