Thai talk: How do charter writers predict 'unforeseeable' scenarios?

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THAI TALK
How do charter writers predict 'unforeseeable' scenarios?
Suthichai Yoon
The Nation

BANGKOK: -- No, it wasn't exactly the Ten Commandments. But the 10-point "proposal" from the National Council of Peace and Order (NCPO) to the Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC) will certainly be meticulously considered by the charter writers. And some of the proposed clauses will surely come under close scrutiny by the public.

It's not clear who initiated the process of soliciting the NCPO's opinion on what should be included in the new constitution. Some say the CDC's chairman, Meechai Ruchupan, wanted to make things as transparent as possible by asking all parties concerned, including members of the public, to come up with their suggestions on what the charter should contain.

Now, the NCPO led by General Prayut Chan-o-cha must surely have its own channel of communication with the CDC members. And they don't even have to make their recommendations public to have an impact. But as the 10 suggestions have been made public, one can only assume that both the NCPO and CDC have come to the same conclusion: Since there is no way the two sides can keep anything secret, it is advisable to simply tell it like it is.

Some of the 10 recommendations are inevitably controversial, and there is no doubt that critics will be quick to jump on them, either to oppose them or to seek clarifications. Now that the 10-point "proposal" is in the public domain, the only wise option would be to put it up for a robust debate.

One interesting point is the proposal that the new charter should be "flexible" to suit changing circumstances, meaning that the content should be written in such a way that making amendments in the future should not be made too difficult.

Why? The reason given by the NCPO is highly revealing. It says that making future amendments possible would prevent the use of force to make dramatic changes such as a coup, "which is not acceptable to countries with high standards of democracy".

Coup leaders suggesting that the charter writers draft a constitution that would prevent another coup?

Another NCPO recommendation is that the new charter must empower the people, "making citizens genuinely powerful". One proposal says that the new constitution must ensure that the democratic role of citizens must not be limited to casting ballots. "Even after elections, citizens must still play a role that is more important than the elected politicians. The state must be duty-bound to support the creation and development of citizens' political knowledge and responsibility.

There is little doubt that distrust of politicians remains a strong element in the military's thinking.

Another controversial NCPO proposal is for the new charter to provide for a "mechanism" that would overcome any stalemate in national affairs should there be a "power vacuum" in the legislative, executive or judicial branch of government.

And there is another, even more controversial idea in the NCPO's paper: In order to protect national security from internal or external threats, the "appropriate use of military force" must be accepted - and the personnel involved in such action should not be subject to civil, criminal or administrative punishment.

These last two proposals will no doubt face the most critical scrutiny if they come up for public debate.

The core questions would inevitably be: What does the "special mechanism" to fill a "power vacuum" look like? What kind of power would be granted to this "body with special interim power?"

Even more complicated is the issue of "appropriate use of military force" to counter "possible security threats". Who would define what constituted a "security threat" and, more importantly, who would decide what is "appropriate military force"?

When the previous charter drafting committee under Borwornsak Uwanno had proposed a "special steering committee" with extra powers to handle just this kind of "possible political accident", it was quickly shot down by critics who detected a thinly-veiled plot to place a special body over and above an elected government.

The CDC has thus been set a difficult test: How does one draw up a charter that promises to give citizens real power appropriate to a genuine democracy while at the same time allowing the elected government's power to be superseded by a "super body" under a range of nebulous scenarios?

CDC chief Meechai insists that his panel is open to all ideas - but that he doesn't have to comply with proposals from the junta.

It will take all of Meechai's considerable political experience to negotiate this cliff-hanging road and reach the destination without serious incident. To say that the next stretch of this political drama will be nerve-wracking for all concerned would be to understate the facts dramatically.

Source: http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/How-do-charter-writers-predict-unforeseeable-scena-30273715.html


-- The Nation 2015-11-26

[Somtamnication]

They play GTA V!

[waldroj]

How to predict unforeseeable scenarios?

Maybe CDC Mark II should seek advice from the junta head about the fortune teller he uses?

Any reference to military force in the charter should be to condemn it as inappropriate and unacceptable!

[deckape]

The point is moot. This charter will end as the others...

[NongKhaiKid]

Leave it nice and flexible as with ' near ' in no alcohol sales and schools so it's one size fits all and is whatever those wishing to use the laws say it is.

[MaxLee]

"How do charter writers predict 'unforeseeable' scenarios?"

Well that's easy, folks. reject it, reject it, and infinitely reject it, or in other words, reject it for a 1000 plus life times in order for our dear PM and his regime to stay in power 4EEEEVEEEERRRR!!!!

Surprised???

[Emster23]

Pretty good trick if someone can foresee the unforeseeable.... def: "Not able to be anticipated or predicted"

[mojorison]

Sometimes governments make plans to cover "contingencies". Unless it involves ghosts or other spiritual mechanisms such as the one that purportedly was going to facilitate the sinking of the Malay Peninsula (Sth Thailand) into the Indian Ocean... or was it the Pacific Ocean. You just can't plan for that kind of "event". Ghosts from my experience can be very unpredictable.

[Eric Loh]

All of Khun Meechai's political experiences were serving military regimes and involved in writing 2 recent post coups constitution. He was on record showing absolute disdain for the 1997 constitution; the only constitution that was written with intensive participation of the civil society. I hope he stay close to his commitment and be honest to listen to all public opinions. But really he need to first pass the smell test of the international community.

[Srikcir]

"But as the 10 suggestions have been made public ..."

Is the NCPO restricted as to the number of suggestions it can make? Or can it make for example 20 suggestions of which only 10 are made public? So the luarels of transpareny made by The Nation as to how transparent the junta is may be nothing more than pro-junta propaganda. When you remember that Meechai was a member of the NCPO and appointed personally by Prayut, the opportunity for secret back-channel communications between CDC and the NCPO is untraceable.