Baht vs US$

[Gonzo the Face]

What is going on with the exchange rate on Thai Baht vs US $

Some game playing or what ???

[augustwest]

I agree the USD has been stronger against the Euro Pound Yen,all the on s should say the Baht should be at 37! Hanky Panking to me. This isTIT

[tomwct]

The Euro will be at parity to the dollar or even below the dollar this year! Some predict as low as 0.97 Euro to $1.00 US

[lannarebirth]

Game playing? Explain what you mean. Looking at a chart it looks likes it's been moving sideways for 6 months in a 35-36.5 range.

[lovelomsak]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

[lannarebirth]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked?

[Pib]

An exchange rate don't go up (or down) all the time....don't expect a trend which say is going up day-after-day for a while to continue...at some point it will head the other direction for a while. People need to take a longer term view versus only a daily or monthly view.

The recent currency variation (manipulating) of the Chinese yuan, Bank of Japan interest rate going negative last week, and the oil price ups & downs is making a lot of currency pairs do strange things right now. If I had to guess the Bank of Japan negative interest rate thing and the lower than expected U.S. GDP number for Dec 15 (announced in mid Jan 16) is having the biggest impact on the USD-THB rate.

Also, according to one of Murhpy's Laws the exchange rate will go down just before you need to exchange a large sum of money---it's the law.

[Pib]

Deleted...duplicate post of above.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Pib

[fullnoon]

the exchange rate more or less should reflect the status of the economy. If it doesn't there have to be other issues at work. can be sustained until it gets on the radar of some potent speculators. As it is for now it doesn't support the trade of goods nor will it be helpful for tourism (Meanwhile many goods are cheaper in Europe than in Thailand). Monetary easing has to come sooner or later. If it is delayed it will come with a bang or even a big bang. THB cannot be compared with the major currencies but has to be seen in the context of the BRIC nations. They ALL devaluated big time.

[morrobay]

the exchange rate more or less should reflect the status of the economy. If it doesn't there have to be other issues at work. can be sustained until it gets on the radar of some potent speculators. As it is for now it doesn't support the trade of goods nor will it be helpful for tourism (Meanwhile many goods are cheaper in Europe than in Thailand). Monetary easing has to come sooner or later. If it is delayed it will come with a bang or even a big bang. THB cannot be compared with the major currencies but has to be seen in the context of the BRIC nations. They ALL devaluated big time.

Care to elaborate on " other issues at work " I agree if you are implying that the baht is being held artificially overvalued for the benefit of a minority.

So what factors would you say would precipitate the " bang or even a big bang ' ?

Edited February 2, 2016 by morrobay

[IMA_FARANG]

As they say what goes up must come down.

External factors lowering the Dollar.

I call them professional worry warts.

They are worried about whether or not the Fed will do another raise of base interest rate or not and worries about China and the slowdown in the Chinese economy.

Myself, I still have great faith in the ability of the Thai government to shoot themselves in their own foot with exchange rate against the dollar.

Just give the Thais enough rope and soon enough they will hang themselves.

[jadee]

By 'shoot themselves in the own foot' do you mean failing to devalue the baht and making Thai exports more expensive? You're probably right, although it's officials who are making these decisions and the average Thai has no say, yet will probably suffer the most as the economy tanks.

[Suradit69]

I agree the USD has been stronger against the Euro Pound Yen,all the on s should say the Baht should be at 37! Hanky Panking to me. This isTIT

"Hanky Panking to me. This isTIT"

The market sets the exchange rate. Quotes can be found in the US or Europe, although the bid/ask spread will be wider there than in Thailand. Are you saying that everyone is conspiring to move the baht a few satang one way or the other? Occasionally the Bank of Thailand may try to influence the exchange rate just as most central banks in other countries might try to do ... it rarely has much effect and the little effect it has quickly evaporates. More likely changes in the baht reflect changes in the dollar's perceived value.

"This is TIT" = This is this is Thailand.

Have no idea what "panking" is meant to be.

Edited February 2, 2016 by Suradit69

[DogNo1]

I believe that if the exchange rate were to fall a baht or two to 37 or 37.5, the price of local goods and services would go up by the same amount. That's what has happened so far.

[johnh869]

I believe that if the exchange rate were to fall a baht or two to 37 or 37.5, the price of local goods and services would go up by the same amount. That's what has happened so far.

You are correct! A lot of people will make out if their pension(s) is say 3-4K USD per month! The increase in received Baht will more than make up for the cost of goods and services going up....Come on 40 Baht to the buck!!!

[Langsuan Man]

Thailand is awash with cash, legal and not so legal, so there is plenty of liquidity in the market, no need for foreign funds , ergo falling exchange rates

[Berkshire]

the exchange rate more or less should reflect the status of the economy. If it doesn't there have to be other issues at work. can be sustained until it gets on the radar of some potent speculators. As it is for now it doesn't support the trade of goods nor will it be helpful for tourism (Meanwhile many goods are cheaper in Europe than in Thailand). Monetary easing has to come sooner or later. If it is delayed it will come with a bang or even a big bang. THB cannot be compared with the major currencies but has to be seen in the context of the BRIC nations. They ALL devaluated big time.

Flawed thinking. The exchange rate may reflect the status of the economy, BUT it's relative to other economies. If the Thai economy is tanking, but Europe is tanking worse, do you expect the Euro to rise or fall vs. the THB? The Thai economy alone does not dictate the strength of the baht.

[SOTIRIOS]

...try to cross reference with 2 other currencies.....

[RBOP]

Here's a 10 year and 1 year graph. I see it up and down. A banker in Thailand told me a couple months ago the baht would be 37 in the 1st QR then strengthen to 36 in the latter part of the year. But its no where near 37 yet and only one month to go. If we could all predict things like this we'd all be rich, or poor cause everyone knows and you get a small piece of pie.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked?

They aren't linked but the Baht has held up well against the US$ compared to other emerging currencies like the Ringgit, Ruble and ZAR etc.

[themerg]

I was here during Vietnam war at U-Tapao, big US B-52 base owned bt Royal Thai Navy.

The baht was a constant 20.85 to the USD.

Hanky panky could be and is being played again.

[AlphMichaels]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked?

The THB is both directly and peripherally attached to 4-6 "currency pairs" including the USD as a primary. It's called Currency markets and/or Forex.

Google it.

And while certain economic conditions like the China stock markets late last year and this..., central bank announcements (many coming in next 30-45 days)..., even political events aa they unfold..., Forex is a largely unregulated marketplace with currency trading exceeded $ 5.3 TRILLION USD in 2015. Over 50% of that is between central banks but many institutional and retail brokers buy/sell (makers) in currency markets 24/5 globally.

[sledpull]

So for the uninitiated, should I pay with THB or USD when using my credit card? Thanks

[mihalis]

I agree the USD has been stronger against the Euro Pound Yen,all the on s should say the Baht should be at 37! Hanky Panking to me. This isTIT

Aussie is even worse.............

[bitcoinforever]

the facts are , exports down 5.7% not good no body buying their stuff. FDI- japanese are largest foreign investors in Thailand down 80%. last tool in the bag is let the baht get weaker that is the last rabbit Thailand can pull out . but they are waiting to see when the Chinese devalue, then they will have to let the baht go weaker. The Russian tourist are gone the last tourist are the Chinese when the devalue they will be gone , so Thailand will let it go 30% to 40% till that time every smart thai with cash is getting it out of the baht or paying off dollar based debt.

[does]

I fear you may be right, but why do you think this will happen. The problems in the EU overall?

The Euro will be at parity to the dollar or even below the dollar this year! Some predict as low as 0.97 Euro to $1.00 US

[lovelomsak]

I see nothing out of the ordinary. I think the Thai Baht and US dollar are linked.My Canadian dollar is linked to US dollar.and I check the rates the % change of exchange for Canadian to Us is the same as the % of change Canadian to Thai Baht.constantly. If my Canadian dollar drops against Us it drops the same % against Thai baht. Seems to be a pattern there.

How can you watch the $USD:THB fall from 28 to 36.5 in 3 years time and believe they are linked

I see the link because the rate change for Canadian to Us and the rate change for Canadian to Thai Baht is always the same.I Canadian drops 2 % it drops 2% to both currencies. at same time if it jumps 2% it jumps 2% to both currencies. Consistent as it gets.I have watched the Canadian dollar go from 64 cents to 1 dollar in 3 years also.

[tomwct]

I fear you may be right, but why do you think this will happen. The problems in the EU overall?

The Euro will be at parity to the dollar or even below the dollar this year! Some predict as low as 0.97 Euro to $1.00 US

The US Federal Reserve has been supporting the EU with keeping the dollar weak during the Socialist Obama's Agenda. Obama

wants the US to become more Socialist like the EU Countries, so he supports the weak dollar, which in turns maintains

the Euro at a steady rate. This is at the expense of the US Citizens, especially retirees that have cash and can only

earn 1-2% returns on their savings! Obama's era is coming to the end and the Federal Reserve is starting to act non-political,

although for the last 7 years they have been political. Now they must increase interest rates, although slightly, but continually.

2-3 more interest rate hikes this year will push the dollar higher and the Euro weaker. If the US Elects a non-socialist and

a conservative for President in November, two things will happen. The US economy and jobs will take off and government spending

will take a major hit! Growth will be in the private sector and not in the growth of the government.

[does]

Thanks. That makes sense.

I fear you may be right, but why do you think this will happen. The problems in the EU overall?

The Euro will be at parity to the dollar or even below the dollar this year! Some predict as low as 0.97 Euro to $1.00 US

The US Federal Reserve has been supporting the EU with keeping the dollar weak during the Socialist Obama's Agenda. Obama
wants the US to become more Socialist like the EU Countries, so he supports the weak dollar, which in turns maintains
the Euro at a steady rate. This is at the expense of the US Citizens, especially retirees that have cash and can only
earn 1-2% returns on their savings! Obama's era is coming to the end and the Federal Reserve is starting to act non-political,
although for the last 7 years they have been political. Now they must increase interest rates, although slightly, but continually.
2-3 more interest rate hikes this year will push the dollar higher and the Euro weaker. If the US Elects a non-socialist and
a conservative for President in November, two things will happen. The US economy and jobs will take off and government spending
will take a major hit! Growth will be in the private sector and not in the growth of the government.

[bkk6060]

It is heading the wrong way.

Better off getting a good rate on Euros and exchanging them.