Thai baht gaining on the US$. Why?

[likeke]

Today the exchange rate was 35.05 against the US dollar. The baht has been steadily getting stronger. Does anybody have any clues as to why. Beats me. I thought the dollar would top out at about 37 or 38 at this time.

[thaihome]

Most forecasts are still saying the baht will move to around or close to 38 during 2016. Daily rates are still a function of supply and demand and move according to buy or selling for the short term.

The long term movement mostly depends on forecasts for the SET and if the international fund managers think it might move up. Current forecast say no, which is why the baht rate forecast continue to be negative for 2016.

TH

[uthaithanirules]

USD is down against most currencies

Maybe blame Trump, thats getting a little scary

[lovelomsak]

Does anyone think it could have any thing to do with the 1.3 billion dollar rail deal between the US and China?

[Manassas]

Most forecasts are still saying the baht will move to around or close to 38 during 2016. Daily rates are still a function of supply and demand and move according to buy or selling for the short term.

The long term movement mostly depends on forecasts for the SET and if the international fund managers think it might move up. Current forecast say no, which is why the baht rate forecast continue to be negative for 2016.

TH

Where do you find forecasts for exchange rates? I haven't seen any, but is very interesting and useful in planning when to move money here.

[uthaithanirules]

Most forecasts are still saying the baht will move to around or close to 38 during 2016. Daily rates are still a function of supply and demand and move according to buy or selling for the short term.

The long term movement mostly depends on forecasts for the SET and if the international fund managers think it might move up. Current forecast say no, which is why the baht rate forecast continue to be negative for 2016.

TH

Where do you find forecasts for exchange rates? I haven't seen any, but is very interesting and useful in planning when to move money here.

No one can forecast that, they are all talking out of their *****

Even if anyone could forecast by the tiniest of margins, 50.1% right to 49.9% wrong and be assured of that ratio, thrown it back in to the next trade, trade a couple hundred times a day, in under a month one would be able to accumulate the entire worlds GDP

Their isnt a single person or computer on the planet that can even get it right 50.1% of the time

[chiang mai]

Several reasons contribute: US interest rate forecasts have moved out, oil is up, Europe has increased QE - money flowing out of safe haven USD into other risk on type activities hence folks are selling USD, AND, Thai foreign currency reserves just hit USD 180 bill.

[PT4]

A worthwhile topic that will affect many of us who depend on money from outside Thailand. And not just the US$, but currencies of all countries. Thank you, "likeke," for posting.

​

​The answer to "why?" is that both currencies are declining in value. All currencies are declining in value. There are no exceptions, not in any country in the world. It is a "race to the bottom".

It merely appears that the Baht is gaining. It is not. The US$ is declining faster, the Baht is merely declining more slowly.

[PT4]

No one can forecast that, they are all talking out of their ***** ... Their isnt a single person or computer on the planet that can even get it right 50.1% of the time

Uthaithanirules -

You are wrong about that. All around the world, there are currency traders, speculators, and investors who do exactly that, and many make a good living at it.

I can't speak for others, but from the results from my own forecasting, over many years, I won't ever have to work again in this lifetime. In my opinion, it is a practical way to prepare for a financially comfortable retirement. I would encourage you to consider the possibilities. (And, no, I am not a "financial advisor", or anything like that.)

Edited March 12, 2016 by PT4

[pedro01]

No one can forecast that, they are all talking out of their ***** ... Their isnt a single person or computer on the planet that can even get it right 50.1% of the time

Uthaithanirules -

You are wrong about that. All around the world, there are currency traders, speculators, and investors who do exactly that, and many make a good living at it.

I can't speak for others, but from the results from my own forecasting, over many years, I won't ever have to work again in this lifetime. In my opinion, it is a practical way to prepare for a financially comfortable retirement. I would encourage you to consider the possibilities. (And, no, I am not a "financial advisor", or anything like that.)

I think you'll find that's a myth.

Most professional traders are spreaders/hedgers and not trading outright positions (certainly not with their own money)

The idea that Joe Public can sit at home making bank guessing which direction currencies will trade is a retail traders wet dream.

And yes, I am in the financial industry but working on the buy side/trading side. Not a financial advisor either.

Edited March 12, 2016 by pedro01

[TheCruncher]

No one can forecast that, they are all talking out of their ***** ... Their isnt a single person or computer on the planet that can even get it right 50.1% of the time

Uthaithanirules -

You are wrong about that. All around the world, there are currency traders, speculators, and investors who do exactly that, and many make a good living at it.

I can't speak for others, but from the results from my own forecasting, over many years, I won't ever have to work again in this lifetime. In my opinion, it is a practical way to prepare for a financially comfortable retirement. I would encourage you to consider the possibilities. (And, no, I am not a "financial advisor", or anything like that.)

So what is missing that you're still working?

[PT4]

I think you'll find that's a myth ... not trading outright positions (certainly not with their own money) ... The idea that Joe Public can sit at home making bank guessing which direction currencies will trade is a retail traders wet dream.

Pedro01 -

​

​You, too, are wrong about this (or else my bank account is a myth, too, and my ATM card should never work).

Many do trade outright positions. I did, for many years. My own money; no margin (although margin is certainly possible with options and futures).

I'm not a professional trader. I did it sitting at home, spare time in an evening, using my computer to connect.

"Guessing" is never an effective strategy. Forecasting certainly is possible, it just takes time and effort to learn. Part of forecasting is understanding the "why" of currency movements, as the OP is asking (no matter if he is interested in trading or just currency exchange). Currency movements are an important topic that will affect everyone, everywhere, in years to come, if my current forecasts are correct. : )

​

​For those interested, there are many opportunities for profit in currency movements. All of them on the "down side", if my forecasts are correct. : (

[pedro01]

I think you'll find that's a myth ... not trading outright positions (certainly not with their own money) ... The idea that Joe Public can sit at home making bank guessing which direction currencies will trade is a retail traders wet dream.

Pedro01 -

​

​You, too, are wrong about this (or else my bank account is a myth, too, and my ATM card should never work).

Many do trade outright positions. I did, for many years. My own money; no margin (although margin is certainly possible with options and futures).

I'm not a professional trader. I did it sitting at home, spare time in an evening, using my computer to connect.

"Guessing" is never an effective strategy. Forecasting certainly is possible, it just takes time and effort to learn. Part of forecasting is understanding the "why" of currency movements, as the OP is asking (no matter if he is interested in trading or just currency exchange). Currency movements are an important topic that will affect everyone, everywhere, in years to come, if my current forecasts are correct. : )

​

​For those interested, there are many opportunities for profit in currency movements. All of them on the "down side", if my forecasts are correct. : (

Sitting at home losing money on Mickey Mouse forex accounts with a 'broker' who is both setting the prices AND trading against you does not make you a trader.

That's why it was always a part time activity. It is a rigged market. Did you never stop to consider why your brokerage was prepared to take the other side of your trades and never put them to any actual exchange? They are bookmakers with a vested interest in you losing.

Stocks, future, options - your broker cannot set prices, does not win win only when you lose.

Why people think retail forex is trading is beyond me.

[SOUTHERNSTAR]

USD is down against most currencies

Maybe blame Trump, thats getting a little scary

Nothing to do with Trump, its the ECB that announced an expansion of their QE program that caused the dollar to decrease against the Euro and Pound. The Thai/USD exchange rate trade in the B 35 to B 36 range and will stay there until some snap here or in the US. Physical demand for currencies play a very small role in price formation, derivatives determines price. Derivatives however reflects sentiment, actual events, perceived risks etc. Its a casino out there, place your bets gentlemen.

[alien365]

Seems quite easy to predict what is going to happen. Whatever you think should happen regarding exchange rates,the exact opposite occurs.

[1FinickyOne]

Exchange rates are figured buy market value - at this point 35.05 is market value - tomorrow, who knows, probably half the purchasers think it will go up and half down... that is how value is determined buyers vs sellers... I think it reached 36.5 or so, which means you were quite successful in forecasting 37... keep up the good work.. the only sure thing is more fluctuations..

[ozyjon]

It's opposite day on the currency market,,,

Max Keiser has been talking about this issue for months, view it here

https://www.rt.com/shows/keiser-report/

[Veeke]

USD is down against most currencies

Maybe blame Trump, thats getting a little scary

That is not fully true... USD is weakening against Euro but strengthening against most of the Asian currencies. Thai Baht is a bit over 39 against Euro - one cannot expect USD above 35-36 at the moment

[mrfaroukh]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

[elgordo38]

Does anyone think it could have any thing to do with the 1.3 billion dollar rail deal between the US and China?

Rail deal between US and China? What deal?

[elgordo38]

Most forecasts are still saying the baht will move to around or close to 38 during 2016. Daily rates are still a function of supply and demand and move according to buy or selling for the short term.

The long term movement mostly depends on forecasts for the SET and if the international fund managers think it might move up. Current forecast say no, which is why the baht rate forecast continue to be negative for 2016.

TH

Where do you find forecasts for exchange rates? I haven't seen any, but is very interesting and useful in planning when to move money here.

Channel Asia in the right hand bottom of the screen.

[2fishin2]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

Edited March 12, 2016 by 2fishin2

[elgordo38]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Edited March 12, 2016 by elgordo38

[2fishin2]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Walmart is closing their "express" stores. Didnt work and closing. What is wrong with that? You nonners are always trying anyway you can to come up with strawman arguments to try and put down the US for anything and everything. Please speak to my hand....

[soc]

The Aussie dollar is going up against the US dollar, British pound & Thai baht.

All predictions were that it was going to go down.

Love to see 33baht per dollar like 2012.

Made Thai prices great for me but didn't do any favours for OZ's exports.

Friend of mine exports mobile access steps to the US.

Business is extremely good for him with the low Aussie dollar.

[elgordo38]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Walmart is closing their "express" stores. Didnt work and closing. What is wrong with that? You nonners are always trying anyway you can to come up with strawman arguments to try and put down the US for anything and everything. Please speak to my hand....

Yes your right your hand is obviously doing the thinking for you. Where do you get your "express" information and your don't address anything but that. Yes the hand is where it all is.

[Bill Miller]

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=2Y
The dollar down vs the Thai baht? I
am not an "expert", but I can read a chart.
A small fluctuation over a short period of time does not establish a trend.
The above link leads to a chart of Baht vs USD which shows something not worth getting your knickers in a twist, as of yet., unless you are a speculator in the millions of units category.

My uninformed opinion only.

[ThaiWai]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Walmart is closing their "express" stores. Didnt work and closing. What is wrong with that? You nonners are always trying anyway you can to come up with strawman arguments to try and put down the US for anything and everything. Please speak to my hand....

Stop drinking the Kool-Aid

#1 Sears lost 580 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2015 alone, and they are scheduled to close at least 50 more “unprofitable stores” by the end of this year.

#2 It is being reported that Sports Authority will file for bankruptcy in March. Some news reports have indicated that around 200 stores may close, but at this point it is not known how many of their 450 stores will be able to stay open.

#3 For decades, Kohl’s has been growing aggressively, but now it plans to shutter 18 stores in 2016.

#4 Target has just finished closing 13 stores in the United States.

#5 Best Buy closed 30 stores last year, and it says that more store closings are likely in the months to come.

#6 Office Depot plans to close a total of 400 stores by the end of 2016.

The next seven examples come from one of my previous articles…

#7 Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

#8 K-Mart is closing down more than two dozen stores over the next several months.

#9 J.C. Penney will be permanently shutting down 47 more stores after closing a total of 40 stores in 2015.

#10 Macy’s has decided that it needs to shutter 36 stores and lay off approximately 2,500 employees.

#11 The Gap is in the process of closing 175 stores in North America.

#12 Aeropostale is in the process of closing 84 stores all across America.

#13 Finish Line has announced that 150 stores will be shutting down over the next few years.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Walmart is closing their "express" stores. Didnt work and closing. What is wrong with that? You nonners are always trying anyway you can to come up with strawman arguments to try and put down the US for anything and everything. Please speak to my hand....

Stop drinking the Kool-Aid

#1 Sears lost [/size]580 million dollars in the fourth quarter of 2015 alone, and they are scheduled to close at least 50 more [/size]unprofitable stores by the end of this year.[/size]

#2 It is being reported that Sports Authority will file for bankruptcy in March. Some news reports have indicated that around 200 stores may close, but at this point it is not known how many of their 450 stores will be able to stay open.

#3 For decades, Kohls has been growing aggressively, but now it plans to shutter 18 stores in 2016.

#4 Target has just finished closing 13 stores in the United States.

#5 Best Buy closed 30 stores last year, and it says that more store closings are likely in the months to come.

#6 Office Depot plans to close a total of 400 stores by the end of 2016.

The next seven examples come from one of my previous articles

#7 Wal-Mart is closing 269 stores, including 154 inside the United States.

#8 K-Mart is closing down more than two dozen stores over the next several months.

#9 J.C. Penney will be permanently shutting down 47 more stores after closing a total of 40 stores in 2015.

#10 Macys has decided that it needs to shutter 36 stores and lay off approximately 2,500 employees.

#11 The Gap is in the process of closing 175 stores in North America.

#12 Aeropostale is in the process of closing 84 stores all across America.

#13 Finish Line has announced that 150 stores will be shutting down over the next few years.

Is more and more consumer goods shopping moving online to Amazon and similar companies?

[2fishin2]

US economy is bad but the dollar is strong. I guess sometime the dollar will lose its value and it just may be the start

Here's some reading material for you. You couldnt be more incorrect about the US economy.

http://econsnapshot.com

I think you better take another look at some of them charts. Governments chartists and economists along with CFO's can make charts read whatever they want to. The real facts are why is Walmart closing 269 stores. Other retailers are also showing shrinkage and profit loses. Inventories are climbing. Companies have set profit bars so low that they really look like winners when doing comparisons to the past. Cat is in trouble you know the people that make construction equipment, real wages are falling, the frackers are in trouble in debt up to their eyeballs. The labor participation rate stands at 63% so what is the other 37% doing? Most new jobs are hamburger helper jobs. About 30% of new cars sales are on lease. The car financing market is much like the housing collapse if you have a pulse you get the loan at 20 to 25% a year. If things are so great why are outsiders like Trump and Sanders gaining so much traction. Then throw in 20 trillion of government debt and 200 trillion of total debt yes debt can sure prop things up and make them look good for a while anyways. Take off the Rose Colored glasses and see economy for what it is.

Walmart is closing their "express" stores. Didnt work and closing. What is wrong with that? You nonners are always trying anyway you can to come up with strawman arguments to try and put down the US for anything and everything. Please speak to my hand....

Yes your right your hand is obviously doing the thinking for you. Where do you get your "express" information and your don't address anything but that. Yes the hand is where it all is.

If you were smart enough to use google instead of running off your yap about the strongest economy in the western world you might find the information

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2016/01/22/walmart-kills-walmart-express-are-neighborhood-market-stores-more-productive/#1e6cbdcc77cf