New Brexit polls suggest shift in favour of leaving the EU

[WhamBam]

I have been MIA for a little while - living life - but I think it is great to see the general populous coming to their senses and giving BREXIT a 10 point lead. It seems there is light at the end of the tunnel and common sense seems to be prevailing.

The remain brigade really seem to have outdone themselves since the live debates began on television. I wonder how many toes they have left, if any, after shooting themselves in the foot so much.

I am hoping for massive celebrations after the OUT vote

[MJP]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36485985

[Richard W]

One of the things that pees me off about uncontrolled migration is that my Thai partner who I can support cannot come to the UK to live with me without jumping through a million hoops, tests I would struggle with without preparation, and anyone from twenty seven other countries soon to be more can just show an EU passport and walk in and live here, Immigration rules should be the same for all not some,

You'll still be left with the fact that any Scotsman, Welshman or Irishman can just walk in to England without even a passport or ID card - and many of them have. Cameron isn't exactly an English name.

The issue here boils down to fraternity - the EEC extended the concept from a single nation to the whole Community. I know there are limits. If you look into the history of the English Poor Law, you will find disputes over which parish should support the indigent.

UK citizens, expat citizens that is, are disadvantaged in a range of different ways: charged 150% of the actual cost of NHS services; frozen pension; disallowed from using onshore IFA services; inability open onshore bank accounts; inability to buy onshore financial instruments; and more. BUT, we are allowed to vote!

In these regards, how does being British differ from not being British?

Yes, but now we have half of a French aircraft carrier if we need to use it.

Thought to self: if we pull out of the EU do we get our half back and what happens to the other half, does it sink or what. And what do we do with our half, build a matching half to bolt on?

Is Anglo-French co-operation dependent on being part of the EU? I though not.

Also a citizen of anyone of those EU countries can without any problems, bring into the UK,their wife/partner

Even if she is a citizen of a non-EU country. Basically that makes you as a British passport holder a second class citizen.

Cameron's deal is supposed to have largely ended that difference - if the deal is kept. The devil is in the details, but the idea is to restrict that right to moves between EEA countries. For initial entry into the EEA, national rules will apply. A technical summary of the deal is that the deal reverses the Metock judgement. There is the technical problem that the change requires a change or override to a European directive (2004/38/EC to be precise), and this can be blocked by the European Parliament.

[Thaiwine]

Cameron said that Turkey joining the EU was a red herring, here we see the beginning of his smoke screen unravel, he's as straight as a corkscrew.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36510009

[Thaiwine]

One of the things that pees me off about uncontrolled migration is that my Thai partner who I can support cannot come to the UK to live with me without jumping through a million hoops, tests I would struggle with without preparation, and anyone from twenty seven other countries soon to be more can just show an EU passport and walk in and live here, Immigration rules should be the same for all not some,

Also a citizen of anyone of those EU countries can without any problems, bring into the UK,their wife/partner

Even if she is a citizen of a non-EU country. Basically that makes you as a British passport holder a second class citizen.

Now ain't that just the iceing on the cake

[maxtwo]

If the uk leave it will be beginning off the end for the eu as other countries will follow.

[Thaiwine]

If the uk leave it will be beginning off the end for the eu as other countries will follow.

Nigel Farage gets knocked alot I do find I agree with a lot of what he says, he says he wants Europe to go back to separate countries who trade and cooperate with each other,

[MJP]

Brexit vote is about the supremacy of Parliament and nothing else: Why I am voting to leave the EU - Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/12/brexit-vote-is-about-the-supremacy-of-parliament-and-nothing-els/

[chiang mai]

UK citizens, expat citizens that is, are disadvantaged in a range of different ways: charged 150% of the actual cost of NHS services; frozen pension; disallowed from using onshore IFA services; inability open onshore bank accounts; inability to buy onshore financial instruments; and more. BUT, we are allowed to vote!

In these regards, how does being British differ from not being British?

EU citizens are allowed to buy onshore financial instruments and use IFA services;

Not being a British expat means paying only 100% of NHS charges, not 150%, one of the more odd pieces of legislation I've ever seen in my lifetime.

[chiang mai]

You'll be pleased to learn that I've finally managed to come up with a financial benefit to the Brexit case, it wasn't easy but I have and so here it is:

As many of you will be aware, the value of the UK economy is measured in the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, in recent years, probably more like at least fifteen, GDP has increased through a series of means which I think are not always representative of the economy's true value, essentially, when ever somebody spends money on any thing, that counts towards GDP. So when manufacturing, services or tourism see a downturn as they do from time to time, it's often the consumer who saves the GDP figures by going shopping, seriously, this is what is known as a consumer led recovery. Another ploy of course has been to inflate house prices by restricting supply, the value of the nations housing stock has increased from 3.6 to 5.2 Trillion Pounds since 2003 and this reflects positively on GDP. Meanwhile of course successive governments have been racking up debt every month until the country now owes over 1.56 Trillion Pounds or 3% of GDP, the interest on which amounts to about 43 Billion Pounds per year (remind me, net cost to us of EU membership is what, 12.9 bill Pounds!).

I've always believed that the above scenario was not sustainable, to be honest I felt sure the bubble would have popped before now but no. What I think has to happen is we have to shrink our economy and Brexit is the perfect and natural way to do that since the forecast is for a 6% drop in GDP and that in itself should do wonders, the following paints the picture more succinctly than I can write:

"There is a key word that has been virtually absent from current debates on the economy: productivity. If people’s rising spending power is not matched by rising production per head, we will suck in more imports without an offsetting rise in exports to pay for them. This is what is happening; the UK’s productivity record in recent years has been dismal by historical and international standards; we have a rising balance of payments deficit with the rest of the world of £100bn a year; we are certainly not paying our way. This cannot be sustained for long. Otherwise we will have to pay for the shortfall by selling off income-earning capital assets to foreigners, thereby further reducing our overseas earnings. This in turn will weaken sterling, leading to depreciation and/or devaluation. The effect of this in real terms is to hand over chunks of our national income to other countries". http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/28/austerity-low-productivity-shrinking-growth-its-the-stupid-economy

So, a perfect excuse to shrink the economy, devalue Sterling and reduce our debt whilst also reducing government spending. The downside of course is that people will be poorer, interest rates will have to rise and inflation will kick in so things will get very tight for many, but it will be worth it in order to balance the books and eliminate debt, don't you think?

I now hear you say wait, GDP is not going to shrink by 6%. Well if it doesn't that's going to be a problem, isn't it!

Edited June 12, 2016 by chiang mai

[sandyf]

Sterling opened down this morning, GBP/USD dropped below 1.42 and the baht below 50.

Nigel Farage however tries to make out it is rising.

"Mr Farage said: "Sterling is up since March. Since Brexit became a possibility, sterling is up and FTSE is exactly the same level it was in March."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36511485

[sandyf]

UK: Coverage of pros/cons of Brexit increasingly dominates press items over the...

UK: Coverage of pros/cons of Brexit increasingly dominates press items over theweekend, most likely to pick up momentum into the June 23 referendum. Germanfin/min Wolfgang Schauble "warned the UK not to expect to retain access to theEU's single market if it voted to leave the bloc," Financial Times reportedSaturday. But on the other hand, Schauble said "that there would be no popularsupport for more centralized EU decision-making if the UK voted to leave." Asecond FT article suggests a Briton exit "threatens two decades of peace inNorthern Ireland," as "be customs barriers between the two parts of Ireland"would be erected. Times wrote Saturday an "emergency budget" likely to be calledto stabilize markets in the event of an exit, while the Sunday Times writes theBoE "will face overwhelming pressure to slash interest rates to new lows ifBritain opts to quit the EU," citing "international investor." Sunday Telegraphwrites exit camp shows "support for a "Norway-style arrangement (access to thesingle market, but are not obliged to comply with many EU rules)," While DerSpiegel wrote Sunday writes hopes for a Norway/Swiss arrangement are unfounded,won't work for Britain.

Source: Market News International (MNI) – A Deutsche Börse company

13. June 2016 00:47:31

[WhamBam]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

[WhamBam]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-36485985

I had read about this but could not find the link

In my view it speaks volumes.

Thanks for posting this MJP.

[Jip99]

Sterling opened down this morning, GBP/USD dropped below 1.42 and the baht below 50.

Nigel Farage however tries to make out it is rising.

"Mr Farage said: "Sterling is up since March. Since Brexit became a possibility, sterling is up and FTSE is exactly the same level it was in March."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36511485

Another truism from Nigel.

The rate is actually over 50 but that is irrelevant because if anyone uses the speculative exchange markets as a barometer for anything - they must be mad.

[chiang mai]

Sterling opened down this morning, GBP/USD dropped below 1.42 and the baht below 50.

Nigel Farage however tries to make out it is rising.

"Mr Farage said: "Sterling is up since March. Since Brexit became a possibility, sterling is up and FTSE is exactly the same level it was in March."

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36511485

Another truism from Nigel.

The rate is actually over 50 but that is irrelevant because if anyone uses the speculative exchange markets as a barometer for anything - they must be mad.

It's broadly flat against USD for that period, 1.395 vs 1.425

[teatree]

Also a citizen of anyone of those EU countries can without any problems, bring into the UK,their wife/partner

Even if she is a citizen of a non-EU country. Basically that makes you as a British passport holder a second class citizen.

that is correct but you can't blame the EU for discriminating British rules and regulations.

But it is because of the unlimited migration into the UK from the EU that has lead to such discriminating rules for non EU spouses.

[nontabury]

One of the things that pees me off about uncontrolled migration is that my Thai partner who I can support cannot come to the UK to live with me without jumping through a million hoops, tests I would struggle with without preparation, and anyone from twenty seven other countries soon to be more can just show an EU passport and walk in and live here, Immigration rules should be the same for all not some,

You'll still be left with the fact that any Scotsman, Welshman or Irishman can just walk in to England without even a passport or ID card - and many of them have. Cameron isn't exactly an English name.

The issue here boils down to fraternity - the EEC extended the concept from a single nation to the whole Community. I know there are limits. If you look into the history of the English Poor Law, you will find disputes over which parish should support the indigent.

UK citizens, expat citizens that is, are disadvantaged in a range of different ways: charged 150% of the actual cost of NHS services; frozen pension; disallowed from using onshore IFA services; inability open onshore bank accounts; inability to buy onshore financial instruments; and more. BUT, we are allowed to vote!

In these regards, how does being British differ from not being British?

Yes, but now we have half of a French aircraft carrier if we need to use it.

Thought to self: if we pull out of the EU do we get our half back and what happens to the other half, does it sink or what. And what do we do with our half, build a matching half to bolt on?

Is Anglo-French co-operation dependent on being part of the EU? I though not.

Also a citizen of anyone of those EU countries can without any problems, bring into the UK,their wife/partner

Even if she is a citizen of a non-EU country. Basically that makes you as a British passport holder a second class citizen.

Cameron's deal is supposed to have largely ended that difference - if the deal is kept. The devil is in the details, but the idea is to restrict that right to moves between EEA countries. For initial entry into the EEA, national rules will apply. A technical summary of the deal is that the deal reverses the Metock judgement. There is the technical problem that the change requires a change or override to a European directive (2004/38/EC to be precise), and this can be blocked by the European Parliament.

Regarding wives of EU citizens being exempt from the restrictions,that apply to those wives of British citizens, the rules do apply and I cannot see them being changed, unless there is a Brexit and then our masters may try and pull a fast one,by insisting on another referendum,where the EU deems to grant us a few so-called concessions.

[Caps]

If the uk leave it will be beginning off the end for the eu as other countries will follow.

Yes I think that. I also think that it will be a great shame because the things that started it all may be lost too i.e the EEC, the free trade etc. But having no marks like Junker dictating to countries and slowly trying to erode countries democracy is not on. I hope that if we leave it will be a kick up the arse for Brussels, lets face it most of the failed politicians working there are not needed. I think things like trade, security, climate change etc can be achieved by individual countries without No Mark Junker and his cronies meddling. I am not saying it might take a bit longer but I do think it is achievable.

Edited June 13, 2016 by Caps

[Caps]

If the uk leave it will be beginning off the end for the eu as other countries will follow.

Nigel Farage gets knocked alot I do find I agree with a lot of what he says, he says he wants Europe to go back to separate countries who trade and cooperate with each other,

Yep, and I see no reason why that can't happen...it did before we had all the other rubbish that came it to the package

[jayboy]

David Cameron has his eye on the sort of deal the Kinnocks got. We got rid of Kinnock, he failed to win 2 general elections and got the boot. Then this failed politician that the UK rejected, went to represent us in the EU and with his wife made millions off our tax money.

That us what Cameron stands to lose. When the UK finally reject him, he'll want to represent us in Europe.

I doubt that very much.Unlike Kinnock, David Cameron is highly employable in the private sector.However he is already well off and his wife is even better off.

Secondly, I doubt whether the UK would nominate him or the EU accept him - even if he wanted to be a Commissioner (which he doesn't).

My guess is that he will take a few not very strenuous non-exec directorships and write his memoirs.Perhaps there is one big job he might like to do - head of NATO maybe?

He is a countryman and enjoys country sports.He has young children (he is not yet 50 himself) and a wife who he adores, and soon he can spend lots of time time with them.

I envy his future lfe in the Oxfordshire countryside.Good luck to him.I must be one of the few on this forum who like him.I also like Boris and George Osborne - and I quite like Corbyn because he's so unusual.

[Caps]

Cameron said that Turkey joining the EU was a red herring, here we see the beginning of his smoke screen unravel, he's as straight as a corkscrew.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36510009

Of course they are campaigning for visa free travel, then they can all escape from Erdogan. If it is true it was leaked then I glad someone had the b@!!s to do it

[sawadee1947]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

[nontabury]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

If Brexit do win,it will be a day of rejoicing, how those who are so anti-British such as yourself react,I could't give a fart.

[davejonesbkk]

can someone provide a link or other reference regarding this EU citizen-non EU partner and getting them into the UK without the same income restrictions? Im curious to know more about this, thanks.

[chiang mai]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

If Brexit do win,it will be a day of rejoicing, how those who are so anti-British such as yourself react,I could't give a fart.

"those who are so anti-British such as yourself" - that's going too far, uncalled for and unpleasant.

[nontabury]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

If Brexit do win,it will be a day of rejoicing, how those who are so anti-British such as yourself react,I could't give a fart.

"those who are so anti-British such as yourself" - that's going too far, uncalled for and unpleasant.

C.M. You and I are on different sides in this debate, yet I respect your point of view.however I cannot say the same for the person I was referring to. May I suggest that you read all his post on TV relating to anything British and you will notice in every thread how he is consistently anti-British. This is not just my opinion,as other TV members have also pointed this out on many occasions.

[Caps]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

If Brexit do win,it will be a day of rejoicing, how those who are so anti-British such as yourself react,I could't give a fart.

"those who are so anti-British such as yourself" - that's going too far, uncalled for and unpleasant.

Maybe a little! I think we all support Britian just in our own way. There are some of use that want to be ruled by no marks in Brussels like Junker and others that want to be ruled by our democratically elected government no matter how sh!te they might turn out to be

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk whilst drinking a cold beer

[nontabury]

can someone provide a link or other reference regarding this EU citizen-non EU partner and getting them into the UK without the same income restrictions? Im curious to know more about this, thanks.

http://gu.com/p/3y7nx/sbl

Hope this is informative for you.this article is 3yrs old. However the information itself has been well aired in the UK over the last week.

[SgtRock]

I read there is now a 19 point lead for BREXIT.

I seriously doubt the truth of any poll, but hope deep down in my heart that it is such a huge lead. If it is and we really do vote OUT there will be dancing and partying in the streets.

well, it's dancing into the Doom's day. Tears and mourning comes later

If Brexit do win,it will be a day of rejoicing, how those who are so anti-British such as yourself react,I could't give a fart.

"those who are so anti-British such as yourself" - that's going too far, uncalled for and unpleasant.

So is referring to people as the great unwashed and uneducated.

How ironic that you now cry foul after clicking like on a great many of those posts.